Category Archives: Politics

Obama speech- not your father’s Democrats

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There is a quick fix, a full payroll tax holiday for employees and employers.

His small business proposals show he and the rest of Congress still don’t understand that employment is a function of sales.

There is nothing in their proposals to support consumption, which is the only point of any economy.

I suspect they are afraid of the trade gap and fear domestic consumption will hurt net export growth.

Their goal is to have us be the world’s slaves via rising net exports.

This is all very good for business and the stock market, not so good for people who need to work for a living.

These are not your father’s Democrats.

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Press Release

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MOSLER FOR SENATE

Tea Party’s Economic Agenda Would Cause Next Great Depression
Says Former Tea Party Democrat



Waterbury, CT – August 30, 2010, Warren Mosler, Independent candidate for US Senate, former Tea Party Democrat, and frequent speaker at Tea Party rallies, lashed out today at the political movement for its ill-thought demands to balance the budget which he contends is based on abject ignorance and counter to true Tea Party values. “The Tea Party’s demands to balance the budget and reduce the Federal deficit aren’t merely misguided, but dangerous, and would cause the worst depression in history,” stated Mosler, a financial expert with 37 years of experience in monetary operations. “I have been, and continue to be, a strong supporter of the core Tea Party values of lower taxes, limited government, competitive market solutions, and a return to personal responsibility. However, their proposals to balance the budget are the same suicidal policies that caused the 6 horrible depressions in the U.S. over the past 200 years. At the worst possible time to take money out of the economy, the Tea Party’s proposals would remove an estimated $1 trillion and cause the worst depression in world history, destroying tens of millions of jobs and ruining our children’s future.”

Explanation of the Modern Monetary System
Modern money, after the demise of the gold standard, is akin to a spreadsheet that simply works by computer. As Fed Chairman Bernanke explained on national television on 60 minutes, when the government spends or lends, it does so by adding numbers to private bank accounts. When it taxes, it marks those same accounts down. When it borrows, it simply shifts funds from a demand deposit (called a reserve account) at the Fed to a savings account (called a securities account) at the Fed. The money government spends doesn’t come from anywhere, and it doesn’t cost anything to produce. The government therefore cannot run out of money, nor does it need to borrow from the likes of China to finance anything. To better understand this, think about when a football team kicks a field goal; the number on the scoreboard goes from 0 to 3. Does anyone wonder where the stadium got those 3 points, or demand that the stadium keep a reserve of points in a “lock box”?

Moreover, government deficits ADD to our savings – to the penny – as a fact of accounting, not theory or philosophy. This means the Mosler payroll tax (FICA) holiday will directly increase incomes and savings, thus fixing the economy from the bottom up. For example, if the Mosler tax cut amounts to $20 billion per week, that will be the exact increase in income and savings for the rest of us as anyone in the Congressional Budget Office will confirm. For the Federal government, taxes don’t serve to collect revenue but are more like a thermostat that controls the temperature of the economy. When it is too hot, raising taxes will cool it down. And in this ice-cold economy, a very large tax cut is needed to warm the economy back up to operating temperature.

While Mosler fully supports the Tea Party desire to cut taxes, and recognizes the need to cut wasteful and unnecessary spending – in fact, his economic proposals will save the government hundreds of billions of dollars of unnecessary interest expense – he also recognizes that tax cuts have to be much larger than spending cuts in order to ensure that less money is taken out of the economy, and not more as the Tea Party is currently demanding.

About Warren Mosler
Warren Mosler is running as an Independent. His populist economic message features: 1) a full payroll tax (FICA) holiday so that people working for a living can afford to buy the goods and services they produce. 2) $500 per capita Federal revenue distribution for the states 3) An $8/hr federally funded job to anyone willing and able to work to facilitate the transition from unemployment to private sector employment. He has also pledged never to vote for cuts in Social Security payments or benefits. Warren is a native of Manchester, Conn., where his father worked in a small insurance office and his mother was a night-shift nurse. After graduating from the University of Connecticut (BA Economics, 1971), and working on financial trading desks in NYC and Chicago, Warren started his current investment firm in 1982. For the last twenty years, Warren has also been involved in the academic community, publishing numerous journal articles, and giving conference presentations around the globe. Mosler’s new book “The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy” is a non technical guide to the actual workings of the monetary system and exposes the most commonly held misconceptions. He also founded Mosler Automotive, which builds the Mosler MT900, the world’s top performance car that also gets 30 mpg at 55 mph.
Learn more at www.moslerforsenate.com


Media Contact:
Will Thompson
(267) 221-6056
will@hedgefundpr.net

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markets looking grim

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>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Tue, Aug 24, 2010 at 8:32 AM, Seth wrote:
>   
>   stocks look bad
>   looks like another panic
>   

It doesn’t look good technically.

Must be coming out of europe with gold up/euro down dynamic, etc.

Insiders there must be bailing.

Maybe they know something we don’t, or maybe they are wrong.

History is no help as in the past it’s been both.

Austerity is trimming growth there a bit around the edges, but deficits remain reasonably high, so GDP’s are probably at least muddling through, with overall growth probably positive.

The ECB keeps the short term funding channels open for the member nations, but that may not be fully appreciated yet.

On a mark to market basis bank capital is probably below requirements, and they may not realize that doesn’t have to matter to the real economy for as long as the ECB continues to fund them.

Lower crude oil prices support consumption of other things. With US crude oil product consumption up and Saudi output rising, demand must be ok. Maybe Saudis are worried and want lower prices to help world growth as well. Hard to ever say what they are actually up to. They may see the Iraqi production coming on stream and are trying to engineer an increase in demand. Again, no way to tell what they are up to.

The lower 10 year rates reflects expectations of ‘low for longer’ from the Fed due to high unemployment and falling rates of inflation as measured by the Fed. And the possibility of more QE that could flatten the curve further.

There is also the notion that there’s nothing left that the Fed can do of any consequence regarding aggregate demand, and Congress thinks it’s run out of money, which means flying without a net. That increases the weight of the downside in the balance of risks.

If markets and Congress knew that fiscal policy had no nominal limit and deficit spending was not dependent on being able to borrow from the likes of China to be paid by our grandchildren, the balance of risks would be viewed very differently. But they don’t know that.

With the elections coming and California reverting to vouchers again, the time is right for my per capita revenue sharing. But it’s not even a consideration.

Q3 and Q4 GDP estimates are looking more like 1.5%, and Q2 looks to be revised down toward 1% Friday. Not a double dip but no drop in unemployment either as productivity might be at least that high. That’s worse politically than it is for equities, and adds support for a ‘second stimulus’ type of reaction. But that’s way down the road. More likely it causes most of the expiring tax cuts to be extended.

Thursday’s claims can make a big difference as well. The jump to 500,000 last week added an element of fear internationally.

Also, in thin summer markets technicals often cause exaggerated moves. Volume is very low, and a given size buying or selling causes larger moves to find someone willing to take the other side, and momentum type traders can easily overwhelm investors.

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Trade-Q2 GDP

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Karim writes:

  • Real trade balance widens from -46bn in May to -54bn in June
  • Exports down 1.3% but imports up 3%
  • Even though civilian aircraft imports up 53% (after -49% prior month), imports up across the board
  • Consumer goods imports up 7.8% and capital goods up 1.2%
  • Even though the import data suggests final demand is holding up well, the final Q2 GDP print wont be pretty
  • Wholesale inventory data yesterday and trade data today were worse than initial BEA estimates for Q2 GDP
  • Headline GDP likely to be revised from initial estimate of 2.4% to somewhere in 1-1.5%. But final private demand may actually be revised up.

Yes, Q2 GDP to be revised down, but it’s been down. Q2 is history. Corporate earnings were based on the actual numbers- sales, costs, profits.

In other words, we know what the S&P were able to earn even with very modest headline GDP growth.

The higher final demand is also at least sustainable.
The relatively large and ongoing fiscal deficit that added that much income and savings to the non govt sectors allowed for the higher final demand AND higher savings.

While the QE from the Fed does nothing beyond causing term rates to be marginally lower than other wise, it does add some support for asset prices via implied discount rates.

As discussed earlier this year, markets are figuring out that the economy is flying without a net. All the Fed can do is alter interest rates which, with each passing day since the recession began, has been shown to not be able to support output and employment, or even prices and lending. (Just like Japan has shown for going on 20 years.)

And a Congress and Administration that thinks it’s run out of money and is dependent on borrowing and leaving the bill to our grand children to be able to spend is unlikely to provide meaningful fiscal adjustments to support aggregate demand.

So we muddle through with unthinkably high levels of unemployment and modest GDP growth waiting for an increase in private sector demand to kick in via credit expansion from the usual channels- cars and housing.

The risk to growth is now primarily proactive fiscal consolidation- spending cuts and/or tax hikes- in advance of private sector credit expansion. So far I haven’t seen anything meaningful enough to be of consequence. But the anti deficit rhetoric is certainly there, counterbalanced to some degree by the call for jobs.

So it remains a pretty good equity environment but a very ugly political environment.

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ISM/Bernanke

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I tend to agree with Karim and Fed Chairman Bernanke.
Modestly improving GDP growth with unemployment coming down very gradually until a consumer credit expansion takes hold.

Good for stocks, not so good for most of the people still struggling to survive, as the Obama administration continues to preside over what might be the largest transfer of wealth from bottom to top in the history of the world.

And no credible energy policy. We are completely at the mercy of the Saudis who can unilaterally hike prices any time they feel like it.


Karim writes:

  • ISM shows lift from inventories likely has run its course as inventory component crossed back above 50
  • But customer inventories remain low and employment index rises to second highest level since 2004
  • Going forward, private demand, not inventory rebuilding will drive manufacturing
  • Bernanke addressed this today (below) and seems to maintain his above consensus growth forecast



July June
Index 55.5 56.2
Prices paid 57.5 57.0
Production 57.0 61.4
New Orders 53.5 58.5
Inventories 50.2 45.8
Customer inventories 39.0 38.0
Employment 58.6 57.8
New export orders 56.5 56.0
Imports 52.5 56.5
  • “Business in July was strong, the best month since October 2008.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Slow economy has killed sales for new equipment orders.” (Machinery)
  • “Quoting activity and sales are slow, and backlog is dropping.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Business continues to be sluggish and has fallen slightly as the economic ills continue.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • “Retailers are still unwilling to gamble on inventory.” (Printing & Related Support Activities)

Bernanke

While the support to economic activity from stimulative fiscal policies and firms’ restocking of their inventories will diminish over time, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth. In particular, in the household sector, growth in real consumer spending seems likely to pick up in coming quarters from its recent modest pace, supported by gains in income and improving credit conditions. In the business sector, investment in equipment and software has been increasing rapidly, in part as a result of the deferral of capital outlays during the downturn and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment. At the same time, rising U.S. exports, reflecting the expansion of the global economy and the recovery of world trade, have helped foster growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.


To be sure, notable restraints on the recovery persist. The housing market has remained weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and new construction. Similarly, poor economic fundamentals and tight credit are holding back investment in nonresidential structures, such as office buildings, hotels, and shopping malls.

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BP response- this is a no bailout zone

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I agree the guilty need to be identified and punished, but that doesn’t stop with those responsible at BP, their suppliers and contractors, or the regulators who failed us. It runs much deeper, extending to our failed political process.

The financial crisis is analogous. The criminals need to be tracked down and prosecuted, as Bill Black did in after the savings and loan crisis. But the financial architecture/institutional structure that set it all up is at least equally at fault, as is the political process that created that institutional structure, as per my response to Roger.

I do think costs and losses should be paid for by BP, even if that means insolvency proceedings and 100% losses to shareholders and creditors.

I consider this a no bailout zone.

And any drop in aggregate demand/increase in unemployment should be ‘offset’ with whatever size tax cut and/or revenue sharing is necessary to sustain full employment.

And adding to Rogers idea again, my proposal for an $8/hr job for anyone willing and able to work should include those jobs for anyone wanting to join in the clean up efforts. (Not to say that clean up efforts should be limited to those workers.)

Punish BP or . . . ?

By Rodger Malcolm Mitchell

Those rotten scoundrels have ruined our oceans and our shores. They should pay not only for the cleanup, not only for the jobs lost because of the pollution, not only for the damage, but they even should pay for jobs lost because of President Obama’s decision to stop deep-water drilling. BP should pay, pay, pay until they bleed, then pay some more. These people must be held accountable.

Phew! Now I feel better.

But, wait. What is BP? It’s a legal description, nothing more than words on a piece of paper. It has no physical existence. You can’t punish BP any more than you can punish a law or a page of sheet music. BP, as a legal entity, neither caused, nor can cure, the oil spill. That disaster was caused by people, and it is people, not a piece of paper, who must be held accountable.

So the question becomes, which people should be punished? BP has a huge number of employees, the vast majority of whom had nothing to do with the oil spill. It has a huge number of innocent shareholders, a huge number of innocent suppliers, a huge number of innocent oil users. In some ways, you and I are part of BP, because as users of oil and oil-related products (i.e. all products) we are affected by what its employees do.

Which of those people should be “held accountable”? What if holding all of BP “accountable” means thousands of innocent people will be fired, or innocent suppliers will be put out of business, or all of us will have to pay more for our oil and gas, or all of us who hold BP stock, either directly or as part of a fund, will lose? What if punishing BP has an adverse effect on the whole economy. Is that wise?

Somewhere between vengeance and economic reality lies the answer. Punishing BP, as a company, punishes all of us who already are suffering from the gusher. And though widespread vengeance may feel good, there is a “cut-nose-spite-face” aspect to be considered. So, what can be done to help prevent a repeat?

First, let’s identify the people specifically responsible. Certain BP employees. Certain employees of BP suppliers. The guys who mixed and poured the rotten cement that didn’t hold.

And, with all the focus on BP, let’s not forget those government employees who failed equally. I’m talking about the people who, after having been bribed with nice gifts, so readily approved all of BP’s actions.

Yes, we should fine, fire, even jail all the responsible individuals. That would help prevent future problems. Of course, that doesn’t pay for all the efforts to cure the situation nor for all the losses. Who should pay the billions for that?

If you really care about the economy, and are not just flailing out in retribution, you would agree the economically wise approach would be for the federal government to pay. That way, the guilty would be punished, the innocent spared and the economy stimulated.

Government pays = people benefit. BP pays = people pay.

So what’s your choice: Vengeance or money in your pocket?

warren mosler says:
June 15, 2010 at 7:15 am

Well stated!

And we do know we all are responsible.

Our government regulators failed us much the same way they failed us in the financial crisis.

We have failed to create the alternative transportation (including user friendly public transportation, alternative fuels, incentives to reduce our travel needs, etc.) that could cut our use of crude oil by 50% or more, removing the need and incentives for what we know is dangerous offshore drilling.

We should know that the strategy of rushing to use up our domestic oil as soon as we discover it, rather than saving it for later when the rest of the world has used up theirs, is not in the best long term interest of our children and grand children.

We have elected representatives at all levels based on most everything but the wisdom of proposed agendas, often due to incentives we allow to remain in place regarding campaign finance, the power of special interests, and the incentives in place for our two party system to deliver candidates on criteria unrelated to their capabilities to provide the leadership on these critical issues.

Don’t get me started!

Thanks!

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The Day Ahead in DC

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A true day of infamy!

Financial reform and fiscal policy…

9:45 am – President Obama speaks on fiscal policy. At the opening of the inaugural meeting of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.

10:00 am – Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations hearing on the financial crisis. The hearing should run through mid-afternoon.

10:00 am – Fed Chairman Bernanke and OMB Director Orzsag testify on fiscal matters. At the first meeting of the president’s fiscal commission.

12:30 pm – Senate party conference meetings. Following last night’s Senate vote on financial reform, in which Democratic leaders failed to invoke cloture (i.e., close debate) on the question of whether to proceed with debating the bill, both parties must now decide how to proceed. Most observers expect that although Republicans opposed the bill last night unanimously, that unity may not last very long, as many members have a desire to eventually vote for some form of financial reform legislation. Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee and their staffs have been writing an alternative proposal to offer on the Senate floor, though when and even if that comes at this point is unclear. Senate Democratic unity was set back yesterday by one member, Sen. Nelson of Nebraska, voting yesterday with Republicans against moving forward. The ongoing discussions today, and partiuclarly the conference lunches at mid-day, will set the tone for the next steps in the process.

Afternoon – Vote on financial reform? Most observers expect Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) to call for another vote moving forward with Senator Dodd’s financial reform bill as soon as later today, potentially followed by yet another vote tomorrow if today’s vote does not hit the 60 votes required. Following the first cloture vote yesterday, subsequent reconsideration of that vote can be called for at any time.

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