detail for book

The following, from a 2005 paper of mine, provides a good summary of the argument with quotations and bibliographic citations. Feel free to use for any project of Warren Mosler, as per his instructions. Also, please let me know if you have any further questions or I can provide any additional information. In addition to the information on Colonial Africa, I have added a brief section on Europe and Asia, where the same phenomenon can be found. Also, I refer to a 2006 paper of mine that provides evidence that many of the most famous names in the history of economics were well aware of the phenomenon. Also many political scientists, policy-makers, sociologists, historians, etc. Finally, I have also documented the “tax-driven cowrie shell” from both Africa and Asia, that is, contrary to what has previously been thought (by such economists as Milton Friedman), cowrie currency was not a so-called ‘primitive’ money, but was similarly tax-driven as colonial currency or today’s dollar. Let me know if you would like these references as well.

The economist “Rodney” Warren refers to is Walter Rodney, and his book is in the bibliography. I provide examples from many African colonies, such as Nigeria, German East Africa, French West Africa, British Central Africa, Upper Volta, Southern Rhodesia, and South Africa, but not specifically Ghana. If you need examples specifically from Ghana, let me know and I can provide them.

Once again, please do not hesitate to contact me directly anytime for further assistance. My contact info follows.

Sincerely,

Mathew Forstater

Professor of Economics

University of Missouri—Kansas City

From:

Mathew Forstater, 2005, “Taxation and Primitive Accumulation: The Case of Colonial Africa” in Research in Political Economy, Vol. 22, pp. 51-64.

Direct taxation [and the requirement that tax obligations be settled in colonial currency] was used to force Africans to work as wage laborers, to compel them to grow cash crops, to stimulate labor migration and control labor supply, and to monetize the African economies. Part of this latter was to further incorporate African economies into the larger emerging global capitalist system as purchasers of European goods. If Africans were working as wage laborers or growing cash crops instead of producing their own subsistence, they would be forced to purchase their means of subsistence, and that increasingly meant purchasing European goods, providing European capital with additional markets. It thus also promoted, in various ways, marketization and commoditization. [Direct taxation] appears to have been one of the most powerful policies in terms of both its wide variety of functions, its universality in the African colonial context, and its success in achieving its intended effects. Of course, taxation was not the sole determinant of primitive accumulation [note: “primitive accumulation” or similar terms such as primary accumulation or original accumulation, was a term used by the Classical economists, such as Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and Karl Marx to refer to the process by which subsistence workers became wage-laborers, and the process of early capitalist development in general]. But it has certainly been under-recognized in the literature on primitive accumulation. The history of direct taxation also has some wider theoretical implications. It shows, for example, “that ‘monetization’ did not spring forth from barter; nor did it require ‘trust’—as most stories about the origins of money claim” (Wray, 1998, p. 61). In the colonial context, money was clearly a “creature of the state”. In addition, this phenomenon was in no way unique to the African case. As will be seen following the section on Africa, the same process was also found in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.

TAXATION AND PRIMITIVE ACCUMULATION IN COLONIAL AFRICA

Colonial administrators at first believed that market incentives and persuasion might result in a forthcoming supply of labor:

Initially the French imagined that if they would only create new needs for the Africans, the indigenous people would go out to work. When this did not happen, the French introduced taxes so as to make Africans earn wages. (Coquery-Vidrovitch, 1969, pp. 170-171)

From the first it was assumed that ample cheap labor was a major asset in Africa…Practical experience soon showed, however, that Africans did not, as a rule, approximate to Indian coolies. Few in sub-Saharan African had experience of working for pay or outside the traditional subsistence economy, and few had any real need to do so. In course of time monetary incentives might generate a voluntary labor force, but during the first decades after pacification neither governments nor private investors could afford to wait indefinitely for the market to work this revolution. (Fieldhouse, 1971, p. 620)

A number of methods were utilized to compel Africans to provide labor and cash crops. Among these were work requirements, pressure for ‘volunteers’, land policy squeezing Africans into ‘reserves’ destroying the subsistence economy, and ‘contracts’ with penal sanctions (Fieldhouse, 1971, pp. 620-621). But the most successful method turned out to be direct taxation.

Direct taxation was used throughout Africa to compel Africans to produce cash crops instead of subsistence crops and to force Africans to work as wage laborers on European farms and mines:

In those parts of Africa where land was still in African hands, colonial governments forced Africans to produce cash crops no matter how low the prices were. The favourite technique was taxation. Money taxes were introduced on numerous items—cattle, land, houses, and the people themselves. Money to pay taxes was got by growing cash crops or working on European farms or in their mines. (Rodney, 1972, p. 165, original emphasis)

The requirement that taxes be paid in colonial currency rather than in-kind was essential to producing the desired outcome, as well as to monetize the African communities, another part of colonial capitalist primitive accumulation and helping to create markets for the sale of European goods:

African economies were monetised by imposing taxes and insisting on payments of taxes with European currency. The experience with paying taxes was not new to Africa. What was new was the requirement that the taxes be paid in European currency. Compulsory payment of taxes in European currency was a critical measure in the monetization of African economies as well as the spread of wage labor. (Ake, 1981, pp. 333-334)

Colonial governors and other administrators were well aware of this ‘secret’ of colonial capitalist primitive accumulation, although they often justified the taxation on other grounds, some ideological and others demonstrating the multiple purposes of taxation from the colonial point of view. “One Governor, Sir Perry Girouard, is reported to say: ‘We consider that taxation is the only possible method of compelling the native to leave his reserve for the purpose of seeking work’” (Buell, 1928, p. 331). First Governor General of the Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria, Sir Frederick Lugard’s Political Memoranda and Political Testimonies are filled with evidence regarding direct taxation: “Experience seems to point to the conclusion that in a country so fertile as this, direct taxation is a moral benefit to the people by stimulating industry and production” (Lugard, 1965a, p. 118). Lugard’s belief that “Direct taxation may be said to be the corollary of the abolition, however, gradual, of forced labour and domestic slavery” (1965a, p. 118), acknowledges the role of direct taxation in forcing Africans to become wage-laborers. Lugard was also clear that the “tax must be collected in cash wherever possible…The tax thus promotes the circulation of currency with its attendant benefits to trade” (1965a, p. 132).

Lugard and other colonial administrators cited a number of other justifications for direct taxation:

Even though the collection of the small tribute from primitive tribes may at first seem to give more trouble than it is worth, it is in my view of great importance as an acknowledgement of British Suzerainty…It is, moreover, a matter of justice that all should pay their share alike, whether civilized or uncivilized, and those who pay are quick to resent the immunity of others. Finally, and in my judgment the most cogent reason, lies in the fact that the contact with officials, which the assessment and collection necessitates, brings these tribes into touch with civilizing influences, and promotes confidence and appreciation of the aims of Government, with the security it affords from slave raids and extortion.” (Lugard, 1965b, pp. 129-130)

The tax affords a means to creating and enforcing native authority, of curbing lawlessness, and assisting in tribal evolution, and hence it becomes a moral benefit, and is justified by the immunity from slave-raids which the people now enjoy.” (p. 173)

Taxation was also justified on grounds that it assisted in ‘civilizing’ African peoples: “For the native,” Ponty stated in 1911, “taxation, far from being the sign of a humiliating servitude, is seen rather as proof that he is beginning to rise on the ladder of humanity, that he has entered upon the path of civilization. To ask him to contribute to our common expenses is, so to speak, to elevate him in the social hierarchy” (Conklin, 1997, p. 144). Colonial tax policies were also introduced in the name of the ‘dignity’ of, and the obligation to, work, where contact with Europeans again was emphasized:

From this need for native labor, the theory of the dignity of labor has developed; this dignity has been chiefly noticeable in connection with labor in the alienated areas. The theory has also developed that it is preferable for the native to have direct contact with the white race so that his advance in civilization should be more rapid than if he remained in his tribal area attending to his own affairs. This is the “inter-penetration” theory in contrast to the “reserve” or “separation” theory. (Dilley, 1937, p. 214)

All of these functions of direct taxation may be seen in some sense as part of colonial capitalist primitive accumulation, whether as assisting in promoting marketization or serving ideological functions in the reproduction of the colonial capitalist mode.

Several points concerning the role of direct taxation in colonial capitalist primitive accumulation need to be made. First, direct taxation means that the tax cannot be, e.g., an income tax. An income tax cannot assure that a population that possesses the means of production to produce their own subsistence will enter wage labor or grow cash crops. If they simply continue to engage in subsistence production, they can avoid the cash economy and thus escape the income tax and any need for colonial currency. The tax must therefore be a direct tax, such as the poll tax, hut tax, head tax, wife tax, and land tax. Second, although taxation was often imposed in the name of securing revenue for the colonial coffers, and the tax was justified in the name of Africans bearing some of the financial burden of running the colonial state, in fact the colonial government did not need the colonial currency held by Africans. What they needed was for the African population to need the currency, and that was the purpose of the direct tax. The colonial government and European settlers must ultimately be the source of the currency, so they did not need it from the Africans. It was a means of compelling the African to sell goods and services, especially labor services for the currency. Despite the claims by the colonial officials that the taxes were a revenue source, there is indication that they understood the working of the system well. For example, often the tax was called a “labor tax” or “prestation.” Under this system, one was relieved of their tax obligation if one could show that one had worked for some stated length of time for Europeans in the previous year (see, e.g., Christopher, 1984, pp. 56-57; Crowder, 1968, p. 185; Davidson, 1974, pp. 256-257; Dilley, 1937, p. 214; Wieschoff, 1944, p. 37). It is clear in this case that the purpose of the tax was not to produce revenue.

To achieve its intended effects, it was also important that the direct tax be enforced, and numerous penalties existed for failing to meet one’s obligation. In German East Africa, “Sanctions against non-payment were severe—huts were burnt and cattle confiscated—so tax defaulters were not numerous” (Gann and Duignan, 1977, pp. 202-203). All kinds of harsh penalties for failing to pay taxes have been documented:

If a man refused to pay his taxes, the Mossi chief was permitted to sequester his goods and sell them. If the man had neither the taxes nor the goods, the chief had to send him and his wife (or wives) to the administrative post to be punished. Sometimes, a man and his wife would be made to look at the sun from sunrise to sunset while intoning the prayer Puennam co mam ligidi (“God, give me money”). Other times a man would be made to run around the administrative post with his wife on his back; if he had several wives, he had to take each one in turn. Then his wife or wives had to carry him around. (Skinner, 1970, p. 127)

Collective punishments were also used widely to enforce the tax. At the very least, failure to “pay could be met, and regularly was met, by visits from the colonial police and spells of ‘prison labour’.” (Davidson, 1974, pp. 256-257)

Another important element in assuring the smooth functioning of the direct tax system was keeping wages low, which had the additional benefit of keeping costs down for private employers. If wages were too high relative to the tax burden, Africans would only work enough to pay off their tax obligation and the labor supply would remain limited:

While taxation is high, wages are very low. It would not do to pay the Natives too much for they would not work a day more than it was absolutely necessary to get tax money. So employers pay the minimum in order to exploit their labourers as long as possible. (Padmore, 1936, p. 67)

Direct taxation was also used to promote and control migration of wage labor. If wage labor and money for cash crops was not available locally, Africans were forced to migrate to plantations and mines to find money wages (see, e.g., Greenberg, 1987; Groves, 1969; Onselan, 1976; although see also Manchulle, 1997, especially p. 8, for a critique).

TAXATION AND PRIMITIVE ACCUMULATION IN EUROPE AND ASIA

In arguing that taxation played an important role in primitive accumulation, this paper has focused on the case of Colonial Africa, but this should in no way imply that the process was limited to Africa. Evidence has already been mentioned in passing with reference to Russia and elsewhere. Vries, in a section entitled “Taxes, the Financial Revolution, War, Primitive Accumulation, and Empire” from his article “Governing Growth: A Comparative Analysis of the Role of the State in the Rise of the West” (Vries, 2002), argues that:

Praising Europe’s state-system and its mercantilist competition implies, whether one likes it or not, praising taxes. The increase of taxation we see in mercantilist countries may also have been a blessing in disguise. Paying them may have been an unpleasant experience, but it need not necessarily have been a bad thing from a macro-economic point of view. It is not farfetched to expect that ever-increasing taxes forced people to work harder and longer. Since the economy of large parts of early modern Europe was characterized by un(der)employment and under-utilization of the available means of production, there was plenty of room for increased production. Moreover, the fact that taxes were collected in money, led to increasing commercialization. Which in turn could increase government income via indirect taxes. (Vries, 2002, p. 75)

Despite Vries’ view of the process as a ‘blessing’, etc., it is clear that the description highlights the ways in which money taxes affected labor supply and monetization in early modern Europe, and even uses the term ‘primitive accumulation’. Later in the article, Vries reports that, in China, “one finds officials proclaiming that taxes ought to be raised to force the populace to work harder” (Vries, 2002, p. 95; for more on China, see Von Glahn, 1996). Vries goes on to report that this development took place throughout Europe and Asia:

When it comes to the way taxes were levied, monetization appears to be the tendency in the entire Eurasian continent. This process had progressed furthest in Europe. All governments preferred to get their income in money and to a very large extent managed to do so. In China an important grain levy continued to exist, but all other important government taxes had gradually been transformed into monetary payments. In India taxes for the central government had to be paid in cash. In the Ottoman Empire monetization made the least progress, but with the increasing weight of cizye, avariz, and tax farming, here too cash payments were on the rise. (Vries, p. 98)

Additional support for Europe and Western Asia is provided by Banaji (2001). Evidence for the notion that money taxes force pressures for increased market activity is provided by the reverse development, namely that a “decline in the exaction of money taxes brought about a decline in trade” (Hopkins, 1980, p. 116, quoted in Banaji, 2001, p. 16). Banaji goes on to report that:

the relentless pressure for taxation in money would also mean that despite the commercial decline which is supposed to have occurred in the Mediterranean of the seventh century, Egyptian landowners and rural communities were undoubtedly forced to meet their monetary obligations through increased production for the market (or participation in it as wage-labourers). (Banaji, 2001, p. 158)

Additional research is necessary to provide a more comprehensive and detailed documentation of the role of monetary taxation in monetization, marketization, and the creation of wage-labor and cash crop production in other regions and time periods, but it is clear that the historical process was in no way confined to Colonial Africa. The fact that various aspects of the phenomenon were recognized by economists as geographically, temporally, and theoretically diverse as Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, Karl Marx, Fred M. Taylor, Philip Henry Wicksteed, W. Stanley Jevons, Karl Polanyi, and John Maynard Keynes supports the position that it existed with a great deal of generality (see Forstater, 2006).

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Ake, Claude, 1981, A Political Economy of Africa, Essex, England: Longman Press.

Amin, Samir, 1976, Unequal Development, New York: Monthly Review Press.

Banaji, Jairus, 2001, Agrarian Change in Late Antiquity, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Buell, Raymond Leslie, 1928, The Native Problem in Africa, Vol. 1, New York: Macmillan.

Christopher, A. J., 1984, Colonial Africa, London: Croom Helm.

Conklin, Alice L., 1997, A Mission to Civilize: The Republican Idea of Empire in France and West Africa, 1895-1930, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

Coquery-Vidrovitch, Catherine, 1969, “French Colonization in Africa to 1920: Administration and Economic Development,” in L. H. Gann and P. Duignan (eds.), Colonialism in Africa, 1870-1914, Volume 1: The History and Politics of Colonialism, 1870-1914, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Coquery-Vidrovitch, Catherine, 1986, “French Black Africa,” in A. D. Roberts (ed.), The Cambridge History of Africa, Volume 7, from 1905 to 1940, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Crowder Michael, 1968, West Africa Under Colonial Rule, Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press.

Crowder, Michael, 1970, “The White Chiefs of Tropical Africa,” in L. H. Gann and P. Duignan (eds.), Colonialism in Africa, 1870-1960, Volume II: The History and Politics of Colonialism, 1914-1960, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Davidson, Basil, 1974, Africa in History, new revised edition, New York: Collier.

Dilley, Marjorie Ruth, 1937, British Policy in Kenya, New York: Barnes and Noble.

Fieldhouse, David K., 1971, “The Economic Exploitation of Africa: Some British and French Comparisons,” in P. Gifford and W. R. Louis (eds.), France and Britain in Africa: Imperial Rivalry and Colonial Rule, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Forstater, Mathew, 2006, “Tax-Driven Money: Additional Evidence from the History of Thought, Economic History, and Economic Policy,” in M. Setterfield, ed., Complexity, Endogenous Money, and Exogenous Interest Rates: Festschrift in Honor of Basil J. Moore, Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar.

Freund, Bill, 1984, The Making of Contemporary Africa, Bloomington, Indiana University Press.

Gann, L. H. and Peter Duignan, 1977, The Rulers of German Africa, 1884-1914, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

Greenberg, Stanley B., 1987, Legitimating the Illegitimate: State, Markets, and Resistance in South Africa, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.

Groves, Charles Pelham, 1969, “Missionary and Humanitarian Aspects of Imperialism from 1870 to 1914,” in L. H. Gann and P. Duignan (eds.), Colonialism in Africa, 1870-1914, Volume 1: The History and Politics of Colonialism, 1870-1914, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Lugard, F. D., 1965a [1906, 1918], “Lugard’s Political Memoranda: Taxation, Memo No. 5” in A. H. M. Kirk-Greene (ed.), The Principles of Native Administration in Nigeria: Selected Documents, 1900-1947, London: Oxford University Press.

Lugard, F. D., 1965b [1922], “Lugard’s Political Testimony,” in A. H. M. Kirk-Greene (ed.), The Principles of Native Administration in Nigeria: Selected Documents, 1900-1947, London: Oxford University Press.

Manchulle, François, 1997, Willing Migrants: Soninke Labor Diasporas, 1848-1960, Athens, OH: Ohio University Press.

McCracken, John, 1986, “British Central Africa,” in A. D. Roberts (ed.), The Cambridge History of Africa, Volume 7, from 1905 to 1940, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Onselan, Charles van, 1976, Chibaro: African Mine Labour in Southern Rhodesia, 1900-1933, London: Pluto Press.

Padmore, George, 1936, How Britain Rules Africa, New York: Negro Universities Press.

Rodney, Walter, 1972, How Europe Underdeveloped Africa, Washington, D. C.: Howard University Press.

Skinner, Elliott P., 1970, “French Colonialism and Transformation of Traditional Elites: Case of Upper Volta,” in W. Cartey and M. Kilson (eds.), The Africa Reader: Colonial Africa, New York: Random House.

Temu, A., and B. Swai, 1981, Historians and Africanist History: A Critique, London: Zed Books.

Thomas, Clive Y., 1984, The Rise of the Authoritarian State in Peripheral Societies, New York: Monthly Review Press.

Von Glahn, Richard, 1996, Fountain of Fortune, Berkeley: University of California Press.

Vries, P. H. H., 2002, ““Governing Growth: A Comparative Analysis of the Role of the State in the Rise of the West,” Journal of World History, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 67-138.

Wieschoff, H. A., 1944, Colonial Policies in Africa, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

david walker okays deficits???!!!

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Thu, Feb 25, 2010 at 12:54 PM, Roger wrote:
>   
>   am I reading this right?
>   
>   he seems to be admitting the difference between “structural” and nominal deficits, but
>   is still fixated on debt/GDP ratios, not to mention national “revenue”
>   
>   nevertheless, some progress is better than none, and ANY sign of movement is a
>   step in the right direction
>   

Agreed!

Looks like a serious chink in the armor of what used to be deficit terrorist #1???!!!

Address jobs now and deficits later

By LAWRENCE MISHEL & DAVID M. WALKER

Feb. 24 (Politico) — President Barack Obama is in a difficult position when it comes to deficits. Today’s high deficits will have to go even higher to help address unemployment. At the same time, many Americans are increasingly concerned about escalating deficits and debt. What’s a president to do?

The answer, from a policy perspective, is not that hard: A focus on jobs now is consistent with addressing our deficit problems ahead.

The difficulty is that many politicians and news organizations often cast deficit debates as a dichotomy: You either care about them or you don’t.

But this is rarely accurate. The fact that the two of us, who have philosophical differences on the proper role of government, find much to agree on about deficits is a testament to the importance of dropping this useless dichotomy and finally talking about deficits in a reasonable way.

As in every economic downturn, federal revenues have fallen steeply because individuals and corporations earn less in a recession. High unemployment also results in higher expenditures for safety net programs, like Medicaid, unemployment benefits and food stamps.

Not surprisingly then, a huge recession can yield a huge deficit. Efforts to put people back to work and help restore the economy, like the recovery package passed last February, can also increase short-term deficits.

Though a concern, most of the recent short-term rise in the deficit is understandable. Furthermore, public spending can help compensate for the fall in private spending, and help stem the pain of substantial job losses.

With more than a fifth of the work force expected to be unemployed or underemployed in 2010, there is an economic and a moral imperative to take action. Persistently high unemployment drives poverty up, makes it harder for families to find decent housing, increases family stress and, ultimately, harms children’s educational achievement. For young workers entering the workforce, the current jobs crisis reduces the amount they will earn over their lifetime.

In deep recessions, businesses tend to make fewer critical investments in research and development that can improve our economy’s productive capacity over the long term. Entrepreneurs usually find credit hard to obtain if they want to start a new business. These factors hurt U.S. global competitiveness and growth potential.

That’s why we agree that job creation must be a short-term priority. Job creation plans must be targeted so we can get the greatest return on investment. They must be timely, creating jobs this year and next. And they must be big enough to substantially fill the enormous jobs hole we’re in. They must also be temporary — affecting the deficit only in the next couple of years, without exacerbating our large and growing structural deficits in later years.

Funding key investment and infrastructure projects to promote economic growth and offering a job creation tax credit are among the policy ideas that meet all these standards. In addition, temporarily renewing extended unemployment benefits can lead to more jobs throughout the economy.
But these problems, and the resulting short-term deficits they cause, should not be confused with the primary deficit challenge facing our nation: structural deficits. These deficits are projected to exist in coming years — even when the country is at peace, even when the economy is growing, even when unemployment falls.

Specifically, the deficit could approach an already unsustainable 6 percent of gross domestic product 10 years from now, and will continue to rise thereafter.

While we address our short-term unemployment challenges, we must also immediately establish a path to address our large, and growing, structural deficits.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that after the economy has returned to full employment, spending will still substantially outstrip revenues. Over time, Medicare and Medicaid will be the key drivers of these structural deficits. This is primarily because these programs’ costs tend to mirror overall cost increases for health care, which have risen much faster than overall economic growth for decades, but also because of demographic changes.

Our nation’s fiscal picture will darken further with the passage of time, especially if interest rates increase.

These structural deficits are too substantial to close the gap without addressing both sides of the ledger: spending and revenues.

In doing so, it is important to distinguish critical and effective programs and tax policies from outdated and ineffective ones.

We must be careful to maintain the type of public investments that can help fuel broad-based economic growth while strengthening the safety net for our most vulnerable populations. And we should take into account growing retirement insecurity as employer pension systems erode and personal savings falter.

People should be able to count on government benefits they are promised. It is, therefore, critical that federal benefit and funding levels be reconciled.

None of this will be easy — not the policy or the politics. It will require hard choices, and an extraordinary process to engage the American people and to make recommendations to the Congress on budget controls, spending cuts and revenue increases.

Getting the deficit under control cannot be accomplished by simply ending “waste, fraud and abuse,” stopping all foreign aid or exiting Iraq and Afghanistan. Substantial progress could be made though by ending the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003, or paying for their extension through spending reductions. In the end, Congress must step up to the plate, not just with hearings, but with votes.

For all the disagreement in Washington, we both know that, like us, there are many who see the critical importance of addressing these challenges. We must accept higher deficits in the short-term in order to put people back to work.

At the same time, we must take immediate steps to agree on a path and a process for reducing the structural deficits that lie ahead.

In a town of division, this is one area where we need a real consensus now.

updates

Markets are getting closer to the idea that:

Interest rates don’t/won’t help
QE doesn’t/won’t help

With the larger point being coming to terms with the possibility the Fed can’t inflate, or do much of anything that actually matters for the real economy, except maybe fund zombie entities to keep them from failing.

So bonds are throwing in the inflation towel and yields are coming down.
The dollar is going up with miles to go before ppp is reached.
Gold is well off the highs and being held up probably by europeans running from the euro to dollars and a bit of gold.

(***Bernanke just again testified that a contango in futures prices is a reasonable forecast of higher prices down the road. So much for the credibility of their inflation forecast)

Meanwhile the eurozone is continuing it’s methodical implosion with no credible response in sight.
And the realization that all eurozone bank deposits are only insured by the national govts has yet to hit the headlines.

The Obama administration believes the US Treasury is ‘out of money’ and we have to borrow from China to spend and leave that for our children to pay back.
So any kind of meaningful US fiscal response seems off the table.

The American economy works best when people working for a living make enough to be able to one way or another buy their own output, and business competes for their dollars. It’s not happening.

We are grossly overtaxed for current circumstances with no meaningful relief in sight.

Lots of reasons to stay on the sidelines.

Japan at Tipping Point as Debt Approaches Assets

The tipping point is the point where the deficit spending finally is sufficient to create enough aggregate demand to restore output and employment.

Probably not quite there yet. And moves towards ‘fiscal responsibility’ further delay the restoration of output and employment.

And note that even the bearish rate forecast, below, is hardly the stuff of a liquidity crisis, nor will it ever be under current institutional arrangements, which are very different from Greece, also mentioned below.



Japan at Tipping Point as Debt Approaches Assets: Chart of Day

By Minh Bui and Aki Ito

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Japan’s total public debt is nearing the value of household wealth, a sign the government bond market is approaching a “tipping point,” according to Mizuho Securities Co.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows net assets of Japanese households and total government debt. Net assets dropped to 1,065 trillion yen ($11.8 trillion) as of September and the Finance Ministry projects public borrowings will reach a record 973.2 trillion yen by March 2011. Japan’s population, which is shrinking, is also tracked.

“There’s a lot of nervousness in the markets that these two numbers are converging,” said Hajime Takata, Tokyo-based chief strategist at Mizuho. “Looking at the deficit, household assets and limited room the government has for issuing new debt, people think we’re getting closer to a tipping point.”

The yield on 10-year bonds could rise to as high as 1.6 percent this year as investors demand higher premiums for the country’s debt, he said. Benchmark bond yields were at 1.32 percent yesterday in Tokyo.

The narrowing gap is especially alarming for Japan, where more than 90 percent of public debt is held by domestic investors. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa urged the government to shore up finances, particularly as investors scrutinize sovereign accounts more closely because of Greece’s financial woes. Mizuho’s Takata says he doesn’t expect public liabilities to exceed household wealth for at least two years.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said he will unveil in June a plan to contain debt after Standard and Poor’s lowered the outlook on Japan’s AA sovereign rating last month. Kaoru Yosano, a former finance minister, warned on Jan. 22 the country could face an “uncontrollable rise” in bond yields if debt exceeds household wealth.

Private vs Govt Sources of Personal Income

Good chart.

Note how the deficit as a % of GDP began trailing off midway through 06 and brought income from private sources (which for the most part are driven by private sector debt increases) down with it. And how the latest increase in deficit spending has begun to restore it.

As always, taxes function to regulate agg demand and, in fact, don’t actually raise revenue for the federal govt that never has nor doesn’t have any dollars.

It taxes by changing numbers down in our accounts and doesn’t actually get anything, and spends by changing numbers up in our accounts and doesn’t use up anything.

On Tue, Feb 23, 2010 at 9:59 AM, wrote:

Interesting chart from Citi Econ. 6mth rate of change in Income via Govt Support (essentially unemployment benefits, social security, medicare, etc) and Income from Private Sources (mostly wage and salary income, but also corp pension contributions, rental income, interest income, etc).

to say Rogoff is weak on monetary operations is a gross understatement

He clearly doesn’t distinguish the difference between Germany and the US with regards to interest rate determination and solvency risk:

Harvard’s Rogoff Sees ‘Bunch’ of Sovereign Defaults

“It’s very, very hard to call the timing, but it will happen,” Rogoff, co-author of a history on financial calamities, said in the speech. “In rich countries — Germany, the United States and maybe Japan — we are going to see slow growth. They will tighten their belts when the problem hits with interest rates. They will deal with it.”

FDIC – Lets save

In case you thought Shiela Bair understands banking and the monetary system.

All this can do is further reduce aggregate demand.

The entire administration including the Fed and Tsy seems hopelessly mired in gold standard economics.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 22, 2010 Media Contact:
Greg Hernandez (202) 898-6984
Cell: (202) 340-4922
Email: ghernandez@fdic.gov

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is calling upon consumers across the nation during America Saves Week to consider establishing a basic savings account or boosting existing savings. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said, “One fundamental lesson of the financial crisis is that savings can help families withstand sudden changes in their economic well being. Establishing a savings account in a federally insured institution is a great first step to build wealth and begin a savings habit that will last a lifetime.”

The personal savings rate rose to 4.6 percent in 2009 from 2.7 percent in 2008, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. “I am pleased to see that people are saving more of their hard-earned money and building wealth. Having personal savings for an emergency fund or saving for a future expenditure, such as a college education, can make a big difference in avoiding other costly alternatives. I’ve always been a big advocate of a back-to-basics approach to financial services; it’s my hope that Americans’ increase in savings is the beginning of a long-term trend,” Bair said.

“Money saved by consumers also provides a stable source of funding for investments in the economy that benefit all Americans,” said Bair. “In fact, a country with robust savings generally has more capital to fund investments and support economic growth over the long-term. As demonstrated recently, it is harmful to an economy when consumers spend beyond their means, financed by debt that they cannot afford to repay.”

To learn more about America Saves Week and about savings-related resources from the FDIC, please visit http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/savings.html.

medicare tax hike

Same macro result as a tax hike.


Premiums Jump 14% on Medicare Private Plans

By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar

Feb. 19 (AP) —Millions of seniors who signed up for popular private health plans through Medicare are facing sharp premium increases this year — another sign that spiraling costs are a problem even for those with solid insurance.

A study to be released Friday by a major consulting firm found that premiums for Medicare Advantage plans offering medical and prescription drug coverage jumped 14.2 percent on average in 2010, after an increase of only 5.2 percent the previous year. Some 8.5 million elderly and disabled Americans are in the plans, which provide more comprehensive coverage than traditional Medicare.