The more we beat ourselves up with high unemployment, lower wages, and a weak economy, the more manufacturing jobs we’ll get.
Manufacturing industry, change in payrolls:
2008: -904,000
2009: -1,288,000
2010: 136,000
The more we beat ourselves up with high unemployment, lower wages, and a weak economy, the more manufacturing jobs we’ll get.
Manufacturing industry, change in payrolls:
2008: -904,000
2009: -1,288,000
2010: 136,000
A lot more evidence of an inflation problem here.
Market forces may be at work forcing ‘currency adjustment’ from that angle as China undergoes the transformation from employment growth via export led growth to employment growth via domestic demand as world demand for their exports remains soft.
As previously discussed, their currency has probably been fundamentally weakening for a while, supported by capital flows rather than trade flows.
This is a bubble like process that can ‘burst’ when the capital flows decelerate with a bout of currency weakness, double digit inflation, and political unrest.
And their next gen western educated economists seem to be doing the traditional interest rate hiking response to inflation they learned in school, which only makes it worse through the ‘fiscal channel’ of higher interest payments by the govt. on the demand side, and rising costs of real investment on the supply side.
A lot more evidence of an inflation problem here.
Market forces may be at work forcing ‘currency adjustment’ from that angle as China
undergoes the transformation from employment growth from export led growth to employment growth through domestic demand as world demand for their exports remains soft.
As previously discussed, their currency has probably been fundamentally weakening for a while, supported by capital flows rather than trade flows.
This is a bubble like process that can ‘burst’ when the capital flows decelerate with a bout of currency weakness, double digit inflation, and political unrest.
And their next gen western educated economists seem to be doing the traditional interest rate hiking response to inflation they learned in school, which only makes it worse through the ‘fiscal channel’ of higher interest payments by the govt on the demand side, and rising costs of real investment on the supply side.
Headlines:
China Raises Lending, Deposit Rates as Inflation Accelerates
Investors Should Cut China Property Stake, Gave Says
PBOC’s ‘Vicious Cycle’ Worsened by Fed, Yu Says: China Credit
China to Do More to Manage Inflation Expectations, Zhang Writes
World Bank Cuts East Asia Outlook, Warns on ‘Bubbles’
South Korean central bank looks to gold
China Raises Lending, Deposit Rates as Inflation Accelerates
October 19 (Bloomberg) — China raised its benchmark
lending and deposit rates for the first time since 2007 after
inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 22 months.The one-year deposit rate will increase to 2.5 percent
from 2.25 percent, effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of
China said on its website today. The lending rate will
increase to 5.56 percent from 5.31 percent, it said.China’s inflation quickened to 3.5 percent in August,
highlighting overheating risks that have prompted the
government to curb credit and clamp down on the real-estate
market this year. Higher interest rates may encourage inflows
of speculative capital from abroad, complicating management
of the fastest-growing major economy.“Policy makers need to better anchor inflation
expectations by boosting real interest rates,” Liu Li-Gang,
a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia and New Zealand
Banking Group Ltd., said before today’s release.China last raised benchmark rates in December 2007, with
central bank Deputy Governor Zhu Min saying on March 25 that
rates are a “heavy-duty weapon” and alternative measures
were working well.Today’s move came after two surveys showed manufacturing
accelerated in September and input prices jumped, signaling
stabilizing growth and inflation pressures.Global Recovery
“China would be wise to raise rates,” Dariusz
Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based senior economist at Credit
Agricole, said ahead of today’s announcement. “It has led
the global recovery and yet is one of only a few emerging
Asian nations that have not begun to reverse the steep rate
cuts orchestrated during the crisis.”Chinese officials are grappling with the risk created by
last year’s record 9.59 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) credit
boom that fueled the nation’s comeback from the global
recession. China’s property prices in 70 cities rose 9.1
percent in September from a year earlier, according to the
statistics bureau.China will speed up the introduction of a trial property
tax in some cities and then expand the levy to the whole
country, the government said Sept. 29, without giving a
timetable. The state also told commercial banks to stop
offering loans to buyers of third homes and extended a 30
percent down payment requirement to all first-home buyers.
Claims didn’t fall, they went up some.
So dollar still weak/commodities and stocks still moving up, and bonds only a touch off their recent highs.
With the large output gap and unit labor costs well contained, it can be said it’s not so much the dollar is weak but the other currencies strong, particularly the euro, where it looks like they are trying to force deflation with their austerity measures during a time of high unemployment. And the yen, too, is still struggling with deflation.
If I recall 1980 correctly silver has been lagging and ‘caught up’ with gold just before it all came apart? Silver peaked at maybe $60 while gold peaked at maybe $880?
The Reagan expansion that followed the end of the oil shock was not a good time for gold and silver.
And today they are going up for the ‘wrong’ reason- market participants believe and are shifting portfolios as if the Fed and other central banks were ‘printing money’ when they are not. And this can persist for a considerable period of time.
If today’s initial claims fall again, indicating underlying employment improvement, there is a lot to think about.
The Fed might decide QE isn’t needed- yields back up due to the Fed not buying and the concern rates might not be low for all that long.
The low for long/QE 2 scenario is almost entirely based on employment showing no signs of life.
The dollar might suddenly reverse as short dollar positions that were placed due to qe2/low for long outlooks are reversed.
Messages more mixed for stocks and commodities.
Employment growth indicates more demand is possible.
But fears of money printing induced inflation (whatever that actually means doesn’t matter for short term trading) subside.
Dollar strength causes dollar prices of commodities to fall.
Commodity stocks hurt by falling prices, internationals hurt by rising dollar/earnings translations/falling export margins, etc.
Valuations hurt by higher term structure of rates.
Basically a partial unwinding of the massive qe2/low forever/weak dollar market of the recent past.
Karim writes:
Headline near consensus and also very consistent with trend of recent months; but details on soft side
Data consistent with moderate growth which is not enough to materially lower unemployment rate and as such, further lowers the bar for more aggressive LSAPs in November.
Census jobs still being lost. State and local cuts will also probably continue.
Also, 65,000 private sector jobs is about 100,000 short of what I’d guess will be the norm with initial and continuing claims now drifting lower.
GDP growing faster than jobs indicates productivity still doing well, which is positive for profits.
Lower interest rates also continuing to support valuations.
Bullard on CNBC shows FOMC still not up to speed on monetary operations.
Comments on the Blumenthal McMahon Debate
The debate organizers opted not to include me as the representative of the third largest political party in Connecticut, the Independent Party. I did, however, watch the proceedings on television. We are in an economic emergency, and I’m running for the US Senate strictly as a matter of conscience to offer my knowledge, experience, and proposals to fix our broken economy and create the 20 million new jobs we desperately need. To that end I offer my comments.
But let me first respond to the question on the death penalty. Both candidates proclaimed their unconditional support for it, while I am categorically against it. That fact that more than 100 convicted murderers on death row have been found not guilty and released after DNA testing became available is reason enough for me to ban this unnecessary measure which has likely put to death untold numbers of innocent people.
With regard to jobs and the economy, both candidates recognized that small businesses account for about 70% of private sector jobs, and both candidates proposed a variety of tax measures to help small business. And while both candidates favored not letting middle income tax cuts expire next year, and Mrs. McMahon further supported not raising taxes on anyone, neither of those proposals actually lower taxes from their current levels.
Sadly, the problem is that neither candidate recognizes that it is SALES that create jobs. Consequently, they did not focus on proposals designed to increase sales. Restaurants, department stores, and other small businesses don’t cut staff when sales are good and they are full of paying customers. They cut staff when sales fall. We’ve lost 8 million jobs because sales fell and business in general remains slow. So while Mrs. McMahon stated that entrepreneurial activity is what creates jobs through risk taking, she failed to recognize that they do that only when prospects for actually selling their goods and services are favorable, and, particularly, when they have a backlog of orders.
Thus, while lowering taxes for small business certainly doesn’t hurt, it’s not what creates jobs. My lead proposal to create millions of new jobs is a full payroll tax (FICA) suspension for both employers AND for all employees. This will increase take home pay by about 8% which means a person earning $50,000 a year will see his take home pay go up by over $300 per month, which will boost sales and create jobs the right way, from the bottom up, and not from the failed top down trickle down bailout policies of the last several years. It also lowers costs for all businesses, which helps keep prices down. We have to take strong measures to get sales back up to where they should be.
Next, I want to address one of the more famous sound bytes from this debate. Mrs. McMahon specifically stated that “government doesn’t create jobs, the private sector does” and Mr. Blumenthal did not disagree. What both candidates failed to recognize is the government’s central role in private sector job creation. Government’s role is the creation and maintenance of public infrastructure necessary for the functioning of the private sector. This includes in the general sense the legal system, the monetary system, public safety, and other related and essential support functions. This infrastructure employs real people in real jobs providing real benefits without which there would be no viable private sector. So in that sense government does indeed create real jobs, both directly and indirectly.
In summary, neither candidate showed that they understood that sales create private sector jobs, and neither candidate directly proposed measures such as my payroll tax suspension for employees to increase our spending power to restore sales and create jobs. Instead, they proposed measures that certainly won’t hurt, but will fall far short of what’s needed to put America back to work.
Next, Mr. Blumenthal repeatedly called for policy to force China to end its ‘currency manipulation,’ along with ‘buy America’ proposals and proposals to reverse the flow of American jobs overseas, to the point of criticizing Mrs. McMahon for purchasing imported goods. Mrs. McMahon implicitly agreed with the premise, countering by explaining that US corporate tax policy was to blame for companies moving overseas. Again, unfortunately, both candidates have things fundamentally backwards on this issue as well. I suspect that is because the unions they are undoubtedly catering to also have it backwards and are sadly working against their own best interesets.
The real problem is not the imports, or the jobs going overseas. The problem is that we are grossly over taxed for the size of government we have, and don’t have enough take home pay to buy enough goods and services to keep everyone at home fully employed.
As every Professor of Economics knows, and every first year student is taught, imports are real benefits and exports are real costs. You can think of each nation’s real wealth this way: take the ‘pile’ of goods and services we produce at home, then add to that pile the goods and services the rest of the world sends us, then subtract from that the pile of goods and services we send overseas. What we are left with is our real wealth. As you can see, the problem is not what we buy from overseas. That adds to our pile and makes us richer. The problem is the unemployment here at home, which is best addressed by my payroll tax suspension which gives people working for a living enough spending money to increase sales enough to create the jobs we need here at home. The trick is to get taxes low enough so that we have enough spending money to buy everything we can produce here at home with everyone working, plus everything the rest of the world wants to sell us.
In the debate, both candidates also stressed the importance of deficit reduction, with both concerned about the debt we are leaving our children. The problem is that they have both bought into the deficit mythology that has gotten the U.S. economy to where it is today. In order to restore American prosperity create American jobs it is critical to dispell this mythology, and I am on mission to stomp it out forever.
The fact is that the U.S. government is not ‘out of money’ or ‘about to go broke.’ That talk is pure fear mongering. Unlike state and local governments (which can go broke), the Federal government is the actual issuer and operator of the US dollar. It utilizes its Federal Reserve Bank and the commercial banks (where all of our bank accounts are) to make payments and receive payments. It makes all payments, such as Social Security payments, simply by marking numbers up in our bank accounts. Those numbers don’t come from anywhere, as Fed Chairman Bernanke testified last year and other Fed officials have repeated. There is no gold coin that drops into a bucket at the fed when you pay your taxes and they don’t hammer one into their computers when they pay a Social Security check.
To repeat: There is no such thing as the Federal government running out of money. Government checks don’t ever bounce.
That is not to say that ‘over spending’ can’t drive up prices and eventually result in inflation. It does mean, however, that Social Security is not broken. It can’t be. The checks will never bounce. And I have signed a pledge never to cut Social Security benefits or eligibility. However, unfortunately for all of us, there is a commission on “fiscal responsibility and reform” supported by the Democrats and the Republicans, which, conveniently after the election, will recommend ways to cut Social Security and Medicare. An important part of my mission is to make sure they do not succeed.
Often, when I explain this, people will ask if I am proposing that we just ‘print the money,’ as if today there is a distinction between printing money and some other way of government spending. I tell them that ‘printing money’ is a long outdated gold standard distinction that meant we had printed more paper money than we had gold backing it. Today, you can’t ‘cash in’ your dollars at the Fed for gold. Dollars are just numbers in bank accounts, or actual cash. So all I’m doing is describing the one and only way spending and taxing always takes place with today’s monetary system.
The other question that seems to be on everyone’s mind is how then do we pay off China? The answer is actually quite simple when you understand how it works in its most basic form.
First, one has to understand China doesn’t start out with any dollars. They get them from selling things to us. When China gets paid, those dollars go into its checking account, which is also called a reserve account, at the Fed (Federal Reserve Bank). US Treasury securities including T bills, notes, and bonds are nothing more than savings accounts at the Fed. So when China buys Treasury securities all that happens is their dollars shift from their checking account at the Fed to their savings account at the Fed. That’s called ‘the US going into debt.’ You can call it whatever you want, but it is really just transferring dollars from China’s checking to its savings. The total US debt of about $13 trillion is simply the dollars in savings accounts at the Fed. And how is that repaid by the tens of billions every week as the various Treasury securities mature? All the Fed does is shift those dollars (plus interest) from the savings accounts back to the checking accounts. That’s it, debt paid. And no checks from anyone’s children and grandchildren are involved. But what if China decides not to ‘buy our debt’? This simply means their money stays in their checking account at the Fed and never goes to their savings account. There is no reason for anyone to care in which Fed account China’s dollars are kept. Further, if China doesn’t want dollars at all, their only option is to buy something with them just like anyone else.
All of this causes one to view deficit spending in a very different light. Deficit spending for the Federal government is very different than most people imagine. When the Federal government spends more than it taxes, that extra money spent simply winds up in savings accounts at the Fed. In other words, it adds to the savings of the economy. With this in mind and knowing that, by definition, deficit reduction means either increasing taxes or cutting spending, we can see that both of those actions take money out of our economy – the worst possible thing to do at a time like this. While I strongly favor cutting wasteful and unnecessary Federal spending, I also recognize that with today’s high unemployment any spending cuts must be matched by tax cuts of at least that much to ensure money is not removed from the economy. What actually matters is the real economy, and not the deficit which is nothing more than the savings accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank. Don’t you think that if the debt was really a problem something very bad would have happened long before it got to $13 trillion?
Mrs. McMahon’s nonsensical statement about using unspent stimulus money to pay down the national debt would be like saying you are going to use your remaining line on your credit card to pay off your debt. And Mr. Blumenthal’s failure to respond to such an obvious absurdity likewise shows he too is sorely lacking in his understanding of economics and job creation at this time of economic emergency.
The health insurance issue again highlighted their lack of understanding of markets and economics for all parties concerned. Both candidates missed the point that there is not yet an operational plan to guarantee coverage for those with pre existing conditions. The problem is that if you can’t be turned down for insurance because you are already sick, you don’t need to buy insurance until AFTER you need medical attention. To address that situation, they’ve discussed fining people who don’t buy insurance. But if the fines aren’t at least as high as the insurance premiums, people will just pay the fines. And then insurance companies will only be selling insurance to people already in need of treatment, which means the premiums will be higher than the costs of the needed treatment to cover the insurance company’s costs. Unfortunately, however nobly intended, the entire concept is unworkable under the current structure, and neither candidate indicated any awareness of this.
With regard to TARP funding for banks, again, neither candidate got it right. The fact is TARP was nothing more than regulatory forbearance that allowed the banks to continue to function with reduced levels of private capital, along with terms and conditions regarding operations, compensation, etc. No additional public funds were actually involved. The FDIC was, for all practical purposes, already guaranteeing the depositors from loss should all the private capital of any one bank be lost. Adding TARP money to secure depositors from loss when they were already FDIC guaranteed made no sense at all and added nothing. Nor did ‘paying back the TARP money,’ which necessarily did nothing more than let funds sit in reserve accounts at the Fed, make any difference.
To summarize the economic issues, neither candidate showed that they understood that sales create private sector jobs, and neither candidate directly proposed measures such as my payroll tax suspension for employees to increase our spending power to restore sales and create jobs. Instead, they proposed measures that certainly won’t hurt, but will fall far short of what’s needed to put America back to work. During this time of financial crisis, even with the best of intentions, neither candidate is qualified to represent our best interests and fix our economy.
Mr. Blumenthal has been a tireless public servant and advocate for the people of Connecticut for a very long time, and I have no doubt he’ll continue to do that if elected Senator. Unfortunately, much of his understanding of current issues is completely backwards. For example, his tireless and well-intentioned efforts in regard to foreign trade are far more likely to destroy jobs than create them. And nothing could be more subversive than Mrs. McMahon’s promised vote for a balanced budget amendment, which would take over $1 trillion out of our economy, destroying tens of millions of jobs, and threatening our liberties as well in the ensuing social unrest that.
We are in an economic emergency, and both candidates have put forth proposals that would unknowingly destroy millions of jobs in a terrible depression. I am running for the US Senate solely as a matter of conscience as the candidate uniquely qualified to support the proposals that will create the 20 million jobs we need, and defeat the forces at work that are attempting to slash Social Security and Medicare.
Also, unlike the other candidates, creating jobs has been my life work, and not just election talk. My published writings and proposals have already created millions of jobs around the world, and I have met regularly with Congressmen and Senators from both parties promoting full employment and prosperity, as well as fighting back against the proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
I urge you to please visit www.moslerforsenate.com and read my proposals, my qualifications, and my endorsements.
With a federal budget deficit still as large as it is, not all that much of a surprise.
Karim writes:
Nice upside surprise:
| Sept | Aug | |
| Composite | 53.2 | 51.5 |
| Activity | 52.8 | 54.4 |
| Prices Paid | 60.1 | 60.3 |
| New Orders | 54.9 | 52.4 |
| Employment | 50.2 | 48.2 |
| Export orders | 58.0 | 46.5 |
| Imports | 53.0 | 50.5 |
Sending books now.
If any of you want any, email me your name and mailing address. I will ship them from here and hope you make a $10 donation on my moslerforsenate.com website thanks!
New Addition to Mandatory Readings:
December 1998, loosely structured lecture in Newcastle, Australia.