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Survey |
-60K |
Actual |
-49K |
Prior |
-20K |
Revised |
-28K |
Down 49,000 was better than expected.
Previous months revised down an additional total of 15,000.
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Survey |
5.1% |
Actual |
5.5% |
Prior |
5.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Total employment is over 138 million, and the seasonal adjustment dropped the actual number by over 1.5 million jobs.
So this report is fighting strong seasonal adjustments.
5.5% unemployment from the household survey is a lot worse than expected.
Seems 500,000 new job seekers entered the labor force in that survey, apparently a statistical quirk added that many teenagers and 20-24 year olds out of sync with seasonal adjustments.
Even so, the labor markets remain on the weak side.
But they are strong enough to support crude at $131.72 (as Saudi oil production continues to grow at even these higher prices and headline inflation) is well north of 4%, as the May CPI is expected to show.
Employment is also strong enough to yield positive GDP growth – no recession yet.
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Survey |
-40K |
Actual |
-26K |
Prior |
-46K |
Revised |
-49 |
Better than expected, in line with other recent report.
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Survey |
0.2% |
Actual |
0.3% |
Prior |
0.1% |
Revised |
n/a |
A touch higher than expected, but not that bad.
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Survey |
3.4% |
Actual |
3.5% |
Prior |
3.4% |
Revised |
3.5% |
Also a bit higher than expected, but still not moving higher.
‘Wage inflation’ is not the issue, nor is it necessary condition for problematic inflation, especially in an export economy.
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Survey |
33.7 |
Actual |
33.7 |
Prior |
33.7 |
Revised |
n/a |
Holding steady.
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Survey |
0.4% |
Actual |
1.3% |
Prior |
-0.1% |
Revised |
0.1% |
Higher than expected, but not at recession levels yet.
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Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
8.1% |
Prior |
7.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
Higher than expected, but still not all that high.
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Survey |
$7.2B |
Actual |
$8.9B |
Prior |
$15.3B |
Revised |
$13.1B |
This month a bit better than expected, last month revised down a bit. Consumer credit seems to be chugging along at better than recession levels.
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