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Monthly Archives: July 2012
Don’t forget, Obamacare’s ‘tax and spend’ is good for GDP and stocks
At the macro level:
Govt spending equal to taxing is positive for nominal gdp, top line growth, etc.
Taxing removes spending power, but usually not as much as the total tax, as not all of that would have been spent. Govt spending is all spent by definition. So there is usually a ‘positive multiplier’.
Obamacare not only taxes and spends, but it deficit spends (at least according to the pundits), adding a bit more to nominal GDP.
I suggest you trade accordingly!
;)
Bernanke on deficits
>
> (email exchange)
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> On Wed, Jul 18, 2012 at 10:39 AM, wrote:
>
> Bernanke just said, “We will simply not be able to pay our bills” if we don’t attack the
> long-run fiscal sustainability issue.
>
Yes, hasn’t change a bit from from these statements earlier this year:
Bernanke Points to ‘Increased Possibility of a Sudden Fiscal Crisis’
By Matt Cover
(CNSNews.com) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the current trajectory of the federal budget – marked by large annual deficits – was “clearly unsustainable” and that “serious economic consequences” could result.
“Having a large and increasing level of government debt relative to national income runs the risk of serious economic consequences,” Bernanke told the Senate Budget Committee Tuesday.
“Even the prospect of unsustainable deficits has costs, including an increased possibility of a sudden fiscal crisis. As we have seen in a number of countries recently, interest rates can soar quickly if investors lose confidence in the ability of a government to manage its fiscal policy.”
Bernanke said that while nobody knows when a fiscal crisis will come, it is surely “ever closer.”
Housing on a sustainable uptrend?
Looks to me like housing is finally in a very sustainable uptrend, supported by adequate federal deficit spending, modestly improving personal income, relatively high affordability, low consumer debt ratios, very low levels of actual inventory, tightening rental markets, etc. etc.
And looks to me that housing starts could double and still be at relatively low levels, so there’s years of upside with modest growth rates.
It also means GDP could gravitate up to the 3-4% range by year end, and stay above 0% even should we go over the fiscal cliff.
Housing Starts Rise at Fastest Pace in Three Years
July 18 (CNBC) — Groundbreaking on new U.S. homes rose in June to its fastest pace in over three years, lending a helping hand to an economy that has shown worrisome signs of cooling.
U.K. Unemployment Rate Hits 9-Month Low, Defying Recession
More hints from europe that deficits may be high enough to support a bit of GDP growth?
Euro-Region Construction Output Advanced in May, Led by Germany
By Simone Meier
July 18 (Bloomberg) — Euro-area construction output rose in May, as gains in Germany and Portugal offset declining production in Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.
Construction in the 17-nation euro area advanced 0.1 percent from April, when it dropped 3.7 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. From a year earlier, construction output declined 8.4 percent.
In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, construction output increased 3.1 percent from April, when it fell 5.5 percent, today’s report showed. Portugal and France reported increases of 3.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. In Italy, output fell 1.4 percent from the previous month, when it dropped 4.3 percent. Spanish output slumped 3.3 percent after a 3 percent drop in April, and the Netherlands had a decline of 0.7 percent.
In the 27-nation EU, output rose 1.6 percent from April, when it fell 6.9 percent. Ireland and Greece are not required to provide monthly data on construction output.
U.K. Unemployment Rate Hits 9-Month Low, Defying Recession
By Scott Hamilton
July 18 (Bloomberg) — U.K. unemployment fell to a nine- month low in the quarter through May. Unemployment based on International Labour Organization methods fell to 8.1 percent of the workforce from 8.2 percent in the period through April. Jobless-benefit claims rose 6,100 in June. The number of people in work climbed 181,000 to 29.4 million with full- time work accounting for most of the increase. London gained 61,000, partly reflecting hiring for the Olympic Games that open on July 27. The claimant-count rate was 4.9 percent. Claims rose 6,900 in May instead of the 8,100 rise initially reported. June was affected by a rule change that forced more lone parents to claim Jobseeker’s Allowance.
Fed Chairman remains a non trivial obstacle to prosperity
From Chairman Bernanke earlier today:
The second important risk to our recovery, as I mentioned, is the domestic fiscal situation. As is well known, U.S. fiscal policies are on an unsustainable path, and the development of a credible medium-term plan for controlling deficits should be a high priority. At the same time, fiscal decisions should take into account the fragility of the recovery.
John’s got it!
Congress, Not the Fed, Needs to ‘Get to Work’
By John Carney
July 17 (CNBC) — The Senate Banking Committee’s grilling of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke just got weird.
Senator Charles Schumer, the New York Democrat, proposed a novel theory of political management of the economy shortly before 11 am Tuesday morning.
The gist of the theory: If the elected branches of government cannot agree to act, the responsibility for the economy falls to the Fed.
Schumer’s argument amounted to the idea that that because disagreements between Republican and Democrats (and, of course, the political ambitions of members of both parties in a presidential election year) are blocking any agreement to provide fiscal relief to the economy, the Fed should “get to work.”
It’s tempting to say that this is the drunk’s theory of the bar tab.
The drunk has been drinking so much he can’t work—and therefore can’t afford to pay his tab. So it’s up to the bartender to pour another cocktail and extend the tab a bit longer.
But this would be insulting to drunks everywhere. The drunk actually understands the economics of the bar better than Schumer understands the difference between monetary and fiscal policy.
The economy right now suffers because the private sector is attempting to save more than it spends, mostly by paying down its enormous debt burden. Because everyone’s income comes from someone else’s spending, reduced overall spending results in income reduction. In our economy, that means higher unemployment.
If the economy is going to grow while households and businesses pay down their debts instead of spending, someone else must take the opposite side of the trade by growing spending more than its income.
With the rest of the world heading toward recession, the only plausible source of this added income is the government. In other words, the government must cut taxes relative to spending (or grow spending relative to taxes) to replace the lost income in the private sector.
What the economy certainly isn’t suffering from right now is a shortage of liquidity or a meager money supply. Which is to say, we’ve reached the limits of what the Fed can do to spur growth. (Although perhaps not the limits of what the Fed can do to fend off a sharp turn downward in the economy.)
To hear a member of the shirker branch of our government blame the Fed for not doing enough would be laughable if we weren’t living with the consequences of the shirking.
Sen. Schumer—and his fellow lawmakers—are the ones who should “get to work.”
Another vice presidential candidate
:(
‘The Dollar Is Going to Go to Hell’: Trump
By Justin Menza
July 17 (CNBC) — The U.S. needs to pay down its debt, and that won’t happen if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke “goes wild” with more stimulus, Donald Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday.
“The fact is that the country owes $16 trillion, and we just can’t keep doing this,” Trump said. “The dollar is going to go to hell.”
Trump said the artificial Fed stimulus has done nothing, and the only way to get the country back on track is to start paying down debt.
Your HuffPost Blog Post – The Economics of Eurozone Trade Differentials and Fiscal Transfers
The economics of euro zone trade differentials and fiscal transfers
Trade differentials have been blamed for the euro crisis, implying that that if trade had some how been balanced there wouldn’t have been the kind of liquidity crisis we’ve been witnessing.
While I do recognize the trade differentials, it remains my deduction that the source of the ongoing liquidity crisis is the absence of the ECB (the only entity not revenue constrained) in critical functions, including bank deposit insurance and member nation deficit spending. And I continue to assert that the euro zone liquidity crisis is ultimately obviated only by the ECB ‘writing the check’, as has recently indeed been the case, however reluctantly.
Trade issues within the euro zone, however, will remain a point of economic and political stress even with a full resolution of the liquidity issues, which leads to discussions of fiscal transfers.
Fiscal transfers can take two forms. One is direct payments to individuals, such as unemployment compensation. Another is the placement of enterprises in a region.
The US does both. For example, it funds unemployment compensation and also spends to directly support all federal agencies, including contracting private sector agents for goods and services to provision the federal govt and its agencies.
And here’s where mainstream economics has left out a critical understanding. In real terms, the allocation of the production of goods and services to a region is a real cost to that region.
This is because that region has to supply its labor to the production of output that is directed to the public sector for the mutual benefit of all the regions.
Note that this is not the case with the likes of unemployment compensation, where the payment is made without any ‘real output’ transmitted to the public sector.
For the euro zone, this means that if Germany, for example, located a military production facility in Greece, where Germany got the benefit of the output, in ‘real terms’ Greece would be ‘paying’ for Germany’s military.
This type of thing could work to readily ‘balance’ euro zone trade, at the real expenses of the ‘deficit’ nations.
Which is exactly what happens in the US, for example, when a military procurement expenditure is located in a region of high unemployment.
And yes, I fully appreciate the obstacles to this actually happening, including deficit myths that prevent full employment and politics that need no further discussion, so thanks in advance for not telling me about them!
But the point remains- the trade differentials in the euro zone are not in the least an insurmountable problem, at least not in theory…