Tag Archives: Housing

Forbes – Property Prices Collapse in China. Is This a Crash?

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Reads like the inflation problem was worse then most thought, and that a hard landing might still actually be happening. No way to actually tell in real time.

With China a first half/second half story, as previously discussed, January will bring a fresh slug of new govt. lending/spending that should at least moderate any fall that’s in progress.

However, if the anti inflation fiscal policies continue, and spending/lending is materially down from last year, the weakness should persist and potentially get a lot worse.

Property Prices Collapse in China. Is This a Crash?

By Gordon Chang

November 6 (Forbes) — Residential property prices are in freefall in China as developers race to meet revenue targets for the year in a quickly deteriorating market. The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing. In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project. “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.

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mtg apps dip

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How does that go again about low rates helping housing?

Mortgage Applications Dipped Last Week

June 29 (Reuters) — Applications for U.S. home mortgages slipped last week as demand waned, even as mortgage rates dropped, an industry group said Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.7 percent in the week ended June 24.

The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 2.6 percent, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases lost 3.0 percent.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 69.5 percent of total applications from 69.2 percent the week before.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.46 percent in the week, down from 4.57 percent.

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mtg apps for new purchases fall again

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Seems the fall off after the tax credit ended April 30th has yet to fully run its course:

US Mortgage Applications Soar on Refinance Demand

July 7th (Reuters) —Refinancing drove total U.S. mortgage applications to a nine-month high last week, while demand for loans to purchase homes sunk to a near 13-year low as buyers remained sidelined after the expiration of federal tax credits.

Mortgage rates stuck around record lows, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, giving homeowners another chance to cut monthly payments by refinancing.

Refinancing requests jumped 9.2 percent in the week ended July 2 to the highest level since May 2009, lifting total applications by 6.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, to the highest level since early October 2009.

Demand for mortgages to buy homes slipped 2 percent. It was the eighth weekly drop in the nine weeks since the federal tax credits for homebuyers expired on April 30.

“For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15 percent relative to the prior month and were down more than 30 percent compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit,” Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.

The average 30-year mortgage rate was little changed in the week ended July 2, climbing 0.01 percentage point to 4.68 percent.

The borrowing rate lingered just above the record low of 4.61 percent set in March 2009, according to the MBA’s records that date back to 1990.

Fifteen-year mortgage rates rose to 4.11 percent last week from the record low 4.06 percent set the prior week.

Refinancings accounted for 78.7 percent of all applications last week, the highest share since April 2009, the industry group said.

Tepid employment growth and a surprisingly steep slump in pending home sales kept interest rates low.

Home purchases will stay weak over the next few months as the housing market adjusts to the end of government incentives, and prices should bottom around the third quarter, said Robert Andrews, senior research analyst at IBISWorld in Santa Monica, California.

Fallout from record defaults and foreclosures are also likely to sway many younger buyers from making such a big commitment in the near term, he said.

“People in my generation, people 20 to 30 years old, saw the downside risk associated with housing, so I think there’s going to be a bit weaker demand over the next few years,” said Andrews.

Refinancing, likewise, is unlikely to approach the levels seen last year when mortgage rates were near current levels.

Borrowers who could qualify for refinancing have in most cases already refinanced, most analysts agree.

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California housing data

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Quote from Data Quick:

Record January sales totals in Perris, Temecula, Victorville and Fontana in the Inland Empire. Palmdale in Los Angeles County posted a record total in January, and record January sales totals also were achieved in Chula Vista and Lemon Grove in San Diego County and Oxnard in Ventura County.

I just checked the numbers from the 2005-2006 highs per the C.A.R. and compared to today’s release.

California housing Data

City 12/05-06 1/09 % decline
Palmdale 377K 135K 64%
Perris 384K 151K 60%
Temecula 510K 250K 51%
Victorville 330K 132K 60%
Fontana 460K 209K 54%
Lemon Grove 419K 209K 54%
Chula Vista 545K 324K 40%
Oxnard 617K 259K 58%
Entire State of California 568K 254K 54%

State’s existing home sales increased 100.8 percent

For release: Thursday, Feb 26 2009

Quick facts

  • Existing, single-family home sales increased 100.8 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted rate of 624,940 on an annualized basis.
  • The statewide median price of an existing single-family home decreased 40.5 percent in January to $254,350.
  • C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index was 6.7 months in January, compared with 16.6 months in January 2008.
  • The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 49.9 days in January 2009, compared with 70.8 days in January 2008

C.A.R. reports sales increased 100.8 percent; median home price declined 40.5 percent in January

LOS ANGELES (Feb. 26) – Home sales increased 100.8 percent in January in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 40.5 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

“Statewide sales in January edged past the 600,000 threshold for the first time since October 2005,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “The strength in California home sales in recent months signifies that the market is gradually working its way through the large numbers of distressed sales that have followed in the wake of the troubled mortgage problem. With favorable home prices and historically low mortgage rates, affordability in the California housing market is now at its highest since the start of the decade.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 624,940 in January at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 100.8 percent from the revised 311,160 sales pace recorded in January 2008. Sales in January 2009 increased 14 percent compared with the previous month.

The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2009 would be if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during January 2009 was $254,350, a 40.5 percent decrease from the revised $427,200 median for January 2008, C.A.R. reported. The January 2009 median price fell 9.5 percent compared with December’s revised $281,180 median price.

“A lot of attention has rightfully been directed toward the high number of distressed properties,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “California’s housing market also is feeling the effects of a drought in the availability of jumbo mortgage loans.

“Since the start of the credit crisis in 2007, jumbo lending has been severely constrained to the point where markets that rely on jumbo loans experienced a 24 percent year-to-year decline in sales in the month of January. This stands in contrast to the 100 percent sales gain the overall market experienced,” she said.
Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for January 2009:

. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in January 2009 was 6.7 months, compared with 16.6 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

. Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.05 percent during January 2009, compared with 5.76 percent in January 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.92 percent in January 2009, compared with 5.23 percent in January 2008.

. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 49.9 days in January 2009, compared with 70.8 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.

Regional MLS sales and price information are contained in the tables that accompany this press release. Regional sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data for condominiums are based on a survey of more than 60 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales.

In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, none of the 331 cities and communities reporting showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The top 10 list is generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)

Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for January may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through C.A.R. Online at http://www.car.org/economics/historicalprices/2009medianprices/jan2009medianprices.

.. Statewide, the 10 cities with the highest median home prices in California during January 2009 were: Santa Barbara, $939,250; Redondo Beach, $672,500; Pleasanton, $655,000; San Clemente, $602,500; San Ramon, $582,000; Yorba Linda, $566,750; San Francisco, $561,000; Huntington Beach, $555,000; Encinitas, $550,000; and Sunnyvale, $530,000.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with nearly 180,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

January 2009 Regional Sales and Price Activity*-Regional and Condo Sales Data Not Seasonally Adjusted

Median Price Jan 09 Percent Change in Price from Prior Month Dec 08 Percent Change in Price from Prior Year Jan 08 Percent Change in Sales from Prior Month Dec 08 Percent Change in Sales from Prior Year Jan 08
Statewide
California (sf) $254,350 -9.5% -40.5% 14.0% 100.8%
California (condo) $218,960 -7.2% -41.0% -18.3% 58.2%
C.A.R. region
High Desert $127,750 -7.1% -45.5% -10.5% 234.6%
Los Angeles $305,310 -9.4% -35.0% -7.1% 84.7%
Monterey Region $263,540 -9.1% -54.6% -23.0% 132.7%
Monterey County $230,000 -9.8% -54.5% -21.6% 213.5%
Santa Cruz County $450,000 -1.1% -25.7% -27.8% 20.3%
Northern California $259,920 -4.5% -17.3% -19.8% 10.0%
Northern Wine Country $331,150 -3.8% -32.4% -21.0% 85.8%
Orange County $423,100 -4.4% -32.7% -25.9% 79.1%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert $153,150 -9.8% -52.1% -11.8% 51.0%
Riverside/San Bernardino $175,200 -8.2% -41.2% -20.6% 149.4%


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AP: Foreclosure digestive process at work

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Prices stabilizing as volumes increase:

SoCal home prices fall in July, sales up

by Elliot Spagat

(AP) A research firm says Southern California home prices fell 31 percent in July from last year, while the number of homes sold hit its highest level since March 2007.

MDA DataQuick said in its report Monday that the median price for new and resale homes and condos dropped to $348,000 last month in the six-county region. That’s down from the market peak of $505,000 in July 2007 and down slightly from $355,000 in June.

The report says a total of 20,329 homes and condos were sold during the month, up 13.8 percent from July 2007 and up 16.7 percent from June.

It says foreclosures accounted for 43.6 percent of all resold properties last month, up from 7.9 percent in July 2007 and a revised 41.8 percent in June.

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AGY MBS UPDATE: 08/12/08

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On Tue, Aug 12, 2008 at 5:18 PM, Andrew wrote:

AGY MBS UPDATE: 08/12/08

General Themes:

  • Mortgages were weaker to dealer hedge ratios – versus CXLs they were down only -5cents
  • The small CXL daily price change masks what was a pretty bad performance for mortgages
  • Dealer OAS’s are back to the wides of last week – Lehman has FN5.5 LOAS at +90bps
  • What could help mortgages?
  • Asian buying returning
  • Capital raising by the GSE’s, (or capital injection by Tsy)
  • Reduced capital surplus guidelines from OFHEO
  • Convexity led rally in rates

not to mention investors recognizing value vs tsy’s, atraight agency paper, quality AAA corporates, libor, and other lower yielding paper


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2008-07-28 UK News Highlights

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Highlights:

U.K. Hometrack House Prices Fall the Most Since 2001
Brown Says He Won’t Turn to ’70s Agenda After Defeat
Darling Considers Expanding Mortgage Bond-Swap Scheme, FT Says

 
 

U.K. Hometrack House Prices Fall the Most Since 2001

by Brian Swint

(Bloomberg) The average cost of a residential property in England and Wales slipped 4.4 % in July from a year earlier to 168,500 pounds ($336,000), Hometrack Ltd. said. Prices fell 1.2 % from June. “With no immediate end in sight to the current uncertainty, activity levels are likely to remain suppressed with prices remaining under pressure into the autumn,” said Richard Donnell, director of research at Hometrack. Prices “are now back to levels last seen in October 2006.” Demand for housing has declined 20 % in the past three months, Hometrack said.

Note how much higher prices are vs the US.

It’s another case of going up very fast and now working its way down towards a more historically normal trend line.

But as in the US, they never come down quite that far before turning up on a new path from a higher base as much of past ‘inflation’ remains indefinitely.


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CNBC: Housing bottom story

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His monetary analysis is ridiculous but we agree on this point:

The Media Are Missing the Housing Bottom

by Larry Kudlow

Media reports painted a pessimistic picture of today’s release on existing home sales, which fell 15 percent from a year ago and recorded higher inventories. But inside the report was an awful lot of very good new news, which appear to be pointing to a bottom in the housing problem; in fact, maybe the tiniest beginnings of a recovery.

For example, the median existing home price has increased four consecutive months and is up 10 percent since February. Yes, it’s down 6 percent over the past year. But the monthly numbers show a gradual rebound. Actually, this median home price is $215,000 in June, compared to $196,000 last winter.

And there’s more. One of the hardest hit regions is the West, including California, Arizona, and Nevada. The other two bad states are Florida and Michigan. However, existing home sales in the western region are up four straight months, and are 17 percent above the low in October. At the same time, prices in the West have increased three straight months.

Meanwhile, overall national existing home sales are basically stabilizing at just under five million. And in the first and second quarters of 2008, these sales dropped slightly by 3 percent in each case, which is a whole lot better than the roughly 30 percent sales drops of the prior three quarters.

It’s a pity the mainstream media keeps searching for more and more pessimism. The reality is a possible upturn in the housing trend, and at the very least we are getting a bottom. Stocks sold off 165 points largely on media reports of terrible home sales and prices. But I am hoping the market comes to its senses and realizes the data are a whole lot better.

related content
Senate Set to Vote Saturday On Housing Rescue Bill
Existing Home Sales: A Look At Numbers That Weren’t There

And on top of all that, just as housing may be on the mend, Congress is about to ratify a huge FHA-based bailout that could total $42 billion. Congressional solons are putting up $300 billion to refinance and insure distressed loans through the Federal Housing Administration. But this dubious government agency, with a whole history of bad portfolio management, may wind up taking in the very worst loans on the books.


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NYT: Too big to fail?

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Too Big to Fail?


by Peter S Goodman

Using public money to spare Fannie and Freddie would increase the public debt, which now exceeds $9.4 trillion. The United States has been financing itself by leaning heavily on foreigners, particularly China, Japan and the oil-rich nations of the Persian Gulf.

This is ridiculous, of course. The US, like any nation with its own non-convertible currency, is best thought of as spending first, and then borrowing and/or collecting taxes.

Were they to become worried that the United States might not be able to pay up, that would force the Treasury to offer higher rates of interest for its next tranche of bonds.

Also ridiculous. Japan had total debt of 150% of GDP, 7% annual deficits, and were downgraded below Botswana, and they sold their 3 month bills at about 0.0001% and 10 year securities at yields well below 1% while the BOJ voted to keep rates at 0%. (Nor did their currency collapse.)

The CB sets the rate by voice vote.

And that would increase the interest rates that Americans must pay for houses and cars, putting a drag on economic growth.

As above.

For one thing, this argument goes, taxpayers — who now confront plunging house prices, a drop on Wall Street and soaring costs for food and fuel — will ultimately pay the costs. To finance a bailout, the government can either pull more money from citizens directly,

Yes, taxing takes money directly, and it’s contradictionary.

But when the government sells securities they merely provide interest bearing financial assets (treasury securities) for non-interest bearing financial assets (bank deposits at the Fed). Net financial assets and nominal wealth are unchanged.

or the Fed can print more money — a step that encourages further inflation.

This is inapplicable.

There is no distinction between ‘printing money’ and some/any other way government spends.

The term ‘printing money’ refers to convertible currency regimes only, where there is a ratio of bill printed to reserves backing that convertible currency.

Skip to next paragraph “They are going to raise the cost of living for every American,”

True, that’s going up!


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