Inflation Archive

Additions to yesterday’s review

Forgot to include the influence of the 8,000 lb gorilla I’ve been advancing for the last few years! Supporting GDP Pension funds adding to allocations for passive commodity strategies Sources of inflation Pension funds adding to allocations for passive commodity strategies Pension funds contributing to the $ decline by allocating funds away ...Read More

Inflation, growth, and Fed policy

Stocks up big, oil up big, dollar down big, and interest rates lower. How does this happen? Review Twin themes remain weakness inflation Sources of weakness Shrinking gov budget deficit caused the financial obligations ratio to get too high by Q2 2006 to support the private sector credit growth needed to sustain ...Read More

The Schroders Economic Viewpoint – Feb 2008

Interesting in that it totally ignores inflation when predicting CB moves. Maybe not only the Fed but the rest of the world’s CB’s don’t care about inflation: Into the valley One of the characteristics of a recession is a sudden drop off in activity, the point at which a slowdown turns into ...Read More

Bloomberg: Fed Sees Rate Low `for a Time’ Then Possible Reversal

Fed Sees Rate Low `for a Time’ Then Possible Reversal (Update1) by Scott Lanman (Bloomberg) Federal Reserve officials signaled they are prepared to quickly reverse last month’s interest-rate cuts after concluding that borrowing costs need to be kept low for now. Policy makers cut their 2008 growth forecasts and said that rates ...Read More

Preliminary February Michigan survey

Survey shows people are watching TV and reading the newspapers. For the third consecutive month, more households reported that their financial situation had worsened rather than improved over the past year. But due to inflation, not falling nominal income: Moreover, due to a higher expected inflation rate and smaller expected wage gains, ...Read More

Re: RBA – 86% OIS odds of a hike in March

(an interoffice email) Looks familiar – the CB forecasting inflation falling from higher and higher levels as it move up rather than down as originally forecast. ———- Forwarded message ———- From: Milo Date: 2008/2/14 Subject: This Picture says it all, I recon – 86% OIS odds of a hike in March To: ...Read More

Zimbabwe

“However, the downside risks to growth have intensified since the last meeting, and markets are pricing in another rate cut..” Zimbabwe’s Inflation Rises to Record 66,212% by Brian Latham (Bloomberg) Zimbabwe’s annual inflation more than doubled to 66,212 percent in December, the Central Statistical Office said in a document released to local ...Read More