Equities Archive

Debt ceiling dynamics

Here’s my take: A. They get a few trillion in long term cuts and maybe a few that kick in reasonably soon and extend the debt ceiling This would help ensure aggregate demand stays low for long, which is bond friendly, and stocks muddle through in a range with slowing earnings growth ...Read More

CH News

China is traditionally a first half/second half story, with h2 notably slower than h1 as fiscal and lending initiatives have generally been front loaded. So watch for a very weak h2: China Stocks Drop for 6th Day on Slowing Growth, Tighter Credit May 26 (Bloomberg) — China’s stocks slid for a sixth ...Read More

Commodities, China and 2012

From Art Patten, Symmetry Capital Management, LLC A brief overview of our current thinking on the financial market and economic outlook—please see important disclosures at the bottom of this email: Yesterday’s rally provided a reprieve from strong selling pressures, but was low-conviction judging by trading volumes and bond market behavior. I suspect ...Read More

Altman Sees Dealmaking Recovery Surpassing $4 Trillion Record

As previously discussed on this website, the stock market continues to be stacked against investors. Management is too often incented to sell shareholders down the river in securing it’s own fortunes. For example, management thinks nothing of issuing highly dilutive preferred’s and convertible’s, etc. This means the shares are worth more if ...Read More

The Wall of Shame (cont.)

Today is year and in Japan, which means the last few days could be mainly quarter end and year end maneuvers, with a high probability of ‘buy the rumor sell the news’ types of unwinds coming up. This would include the anticipation of another 200,000 new private sector jobs to be reported ...Read More

Welcome to the 7th US depression, Mr. bond market

Looks to me like the lack of noises out of Japan means there won’t be a sufficient fiscal response to restore demand. If anything, the talk is about how to pay for the rebuilding, with a consumption tax at the top of the list. That means they aren’t going to inflate. More ...Read More

Libya Libya Libya

Here’s my take. As before, all the world actually cares about is the price of oil. And the internal struggle will wind down with someone controlling the oil. And whoever gets control of the oil wants the oil for only one reason- to sell it. In a land of haves and have ...Read More

March 30 2009 post

Here’s what I said back a couple of years ago. Unfortunately, not much has changed (including my suggestion at the time in an earlier post that it was all a pretty good environment for stocks which could easily double). Review of the recession and how to end it March 30th, 2009 The ...Read More

Nikkei/Nasdaq full graph

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John Taylor (Mr Hedge Fubd FX — not Mr. Hoover Institute Economist :))

The highlighted part is what I was getting at previously. The idea that QE does nothing is now reasonably well distributed. Those holding positions include a lot of managers who highly suspect QE does nothing. But they believe others who do believe QE is ‘inflationary money printing’ will keep driving prices. Same ...Read More