Employment Archive

School and Unemployment, Spain Conference Link

How Have Prime-Age Workers in School Affected the Labor Market? Just one of several possible factors keeping the participation rate down and the reported unemployment rate lower than otherwise, which in my narrative are the consequences of low aggregate demand/the federal deficit is too small, etc. From the St. Louis Fed: In ...Read More

JOLTS, Redbook retail sales, Mexican inflation

More openings, same quits, fewer hires. Whatever all that means… United States : JOLTS Highlights Job openings were up sharply in July, to 5.753 million from an upwardly revised 5.323 million in June. The job openings rate rose to 3.9 percent in July following three prior months at 3.6 percent. Professional & ...Read More

Fed comments and charts, Employment from outside the labor force, Public sector employment, Small Business Index, Labor market conditions index

The reason the Fed is talking hike is because they believe the continued modest growth is reducing the excess capacity in the economy, and they are concerned about hitting the wall of full employment with their 0 rate policy and multi $ trillion portfolio, both of which they believe to be highly ...Read More


First, note that the year over year growth rate has been decelerating since the oil price collapse: And that for all practical purposes the decline in the unemployment rate is due to the decline in the labor force participation rate, which is unique to this cycle and to me entirely due to ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Applications, ADP, Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Factory Orders

Nice jump in front of what is perceived as a near certain rate hike. However pending home sales didn’t show much of a jump in sales: States : MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights A sharp drop in Treasury rates early in the August 28 week, tied to the global stock market rout, triggered ...Read More

Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Import Export Prices, Business Inventories, Japan Machine Orders, Freight Transportation, Gas Prices

This is being touted as a strong report, but, again, looks to me like it’s dropped since year end and at best is moving sideways from there, and not to forget that a large share of auto sales are imports. But I do agree the Fed is heck bent on raising rates ...Read More

MTG Purchase Apps, EU Industrial Production, China Industrial Production, JOLTS

Yes, purchase apps are up 20% vs last year, but you can see from the chart the number of applications has leveled off and declined a bit more recently this year, and remains at depressed levels: The slump in industrial production is global: European Union : Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production declined ...Read More

Fed Labor Indicator, NY Fed Consumer Expectations, Lumber Prices, China Trade

This Fed indicator, whatever it means, just went down some: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights If the Fed relied exclusively on its labor market conditions index, no one would be in much hurry for the rate hike. The index for July came in slightly below expectations at 1.1 vs a revised 1.4 ...Read More

Jobs, Atlanta Fed, Rail Traffic

The Fed is looking for ‘some improvement’ in the jobs market. But looks like deterioration to me? The number of jobs fell for the second straight month, the year over year growth rate continued to fall, the unemployment rate and the participation rate were unchanged, earnings growth remains very low. All that ...Read More

Challenger Layoffs, Claims, Trade Comments, Saudi Price Setting, Construction Detail

Not to worry, just the army announcing layoffs: Challenger Job-Cut Report Highlights A major Army cutback made for an outsized 105,696 layoff count in July. The Army said it is cutting 57,000 jobs over the next two years (note that Challenger counts layoffs at the time of announcement, not when layoffs actually ...Read More