Author Archive

Trade numbers

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits 14-Month High on Oil Imports by Reed Saxon The U.S. trade deficit in November surged to the highest level in 14 months, reflecting record imports of foreign oil. The deficit with China declined slightly while the weak dollar boosted exports to another record high. The Commerce Department reported ...Read More

Re: Bernanke

(email) On 11 Jan 2008 11:17:34 +0000, Prof. P. Arestis wrote: >   Dear Warren, > >   Many thanks. Some good comments below. > >   The paragraph that I think is of some importance is this: > > >  The Committee will, of course, be carefully evaluating incoming > >  information bearing on ...Read More

Comments on Bernanke speech

Although economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of last year from the third quarter’s rapid clip, it seems nonetheless, as best we can tell, to have continued at a moderate pace. Q4 GDP seen as ‘moderate’ – that is substantially better than initial expectations of several weeks ago. Recently, however, incoming ...Read More

2008-01-10 US Economic Releases

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 5) Survey 340K Actual 322K Prior 336K Revised 337K Continuing Claims (Dec 29) Survey 2730K Actual 2702K Prior 2761K Revised 2754K Looks like employment for December was pretty good. Wholesale Inventories (Nov) Survey 0.4% Actual 0.6% Prior 0.0% Revised November sales look good, and October revised up. Inventory/sales ...Read More

ECB Mersch on inflation

ECB’s Mersch Says Oil Must Not Boost Other Prices by Simone Meier (Bloomberg) European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch said a surge in oil prices must not be allowed to lead to permanently faster inflation, Luxembourg’s Wort newspaper reported, citing an interview. Yes, that is the mainstream view – don’t turn ...Read More

3 mo libor down to 4.44%

3 mo libor is now for all practical purposes is ‘under control’ and down about 50 bp since the last Fed meeting. Market function risk seems to be behind us, and the talk has now shifted to weakness due to softer demand. The question is what level of demand is consistent with ...Read More

Countrywide fundings up

Another sign of a possible October/November bottom: Countrywide fundings inch higher CALABASAS, Calif. (AP) – Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s largest mortgage lender, said Wednesday its December loan fundings rose 1 percent from November and were ahead of internal forecasts. The stock, which lost nearly a third of its value on Tuesday ...Read More

2008-01-09 US Economic Releases

MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 4) Survey n/a Actual 32.2% Prior -11.6% Revised n/a As expected, purchase applications sprung back after the annual fall of in late Dec. Markets were concerned this wouldn’t happen this year. Refi index up indicates market functioning returning here as well. 30 year mtg rate down to 5.73% ...Read More

2008-01-09 EU Highlights

Fed will take heat for conducting a weak $, beggar thy neighbor, inflate your way out of debt policy, as it will be seen US exports are robbing demand from eurozone, while price pressures rise, spreading stagflation around the world. Highlights: ♦ Europe’s Economic Expansion Exceeds Earlier Estimate ♦ German Output, Exports, ...Read More

2008-01-08 US Economic Releases

Pending Home Sales Total SA Survey -0.7% Actual -2.6% Prior 0.6% Revised n/a Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom. Economic Outlook Personal Financial Outlook Federal Economic Policies Overall Jan. 2008 31.4 55.7 42.7 43.2 Dec. 2007 32.1 58.3 42.7 44.4 Nov. 2007 30.8 53.5 ...Read More