Author Archive

U.S. Job-Market Weakening Is Led by Self-Employed

Keeps getting stranger by the day. Next thing they’ll be saying is GDP really fell in Q3 and Q4, but the drop was all in off the books transactions. By the way CNBC actually put positive, overstated spin in the headlines on a couple of things. They said mortgage applications were the ...Read More

Plosser Speech

Plosser is perhaps the most hawkish Fed president. Look for a dove to speak soon to soften this stance? (intro remarks deleted) The FOMC and Monetary Policy Objectives In conducting monetary policy, the FOMC seeks to foster financial conditions, including growth of money and credit and a level of short-term interest rates, ...Read More

ISM non manufacturing index revisited

Seems the last three spikes down in this series were entirely emotional responses that quickly reversed? ♥ ...Read More

2008-02-06 US Economic Releases

Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index SA (Feb 1) Survey n/a Actual 405.3 Prior 362.0 Revised n/a Wild January, even considering all year ends are volatile for this series – now back over 400, roughly the 2006 average. Will take a few more weeks to see where it’s been and where it may ...Read More

2008-02-05 US Economic Releases

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jan) Survey 52.5 Actual 44.6 Prior 53.2 Revised n/a ISM Non-Manufacturing Business (Jan) Survey 53.0 Actual 41.9 Prior 53.9 Revised 54.4 These are the types of numbers you get after something like Katrina or 911. Either the economy hit the wall suddenly in January or there is some kind ...Read More

ABC Buying Climate Index

Yes, one more data point indicating we hit the wall right around year end. (ISM, car sales, payrolls, redbook sales) Maybe the stock market scared consumers? Cliff is convinced stock market drops cause consumer retrenchment and recessions. Can’t say I disagree with something like 75% of Americans now holding shares. But something ...Read More

Saudi production

Saudis are selling more oil at the higher prices, as they continue to function as swing producer, setting prices and letting quantity adjust. ♥ ...Read More

Whirlpool Results

Anecdotal support for twin themes of declining domestic demand augmented by booming export demand, and rising prices: Whirlpool’s Maytag buy pays off in 4Q by James Prichard GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. – Whirlpool Corp. said Tuesday its fourth-quarter profit climbed 72 percent, helped by its Maytag acquisition, an improved product mix and the ...Read More

Q4 Earnings Really Weren’t Too Bad — Except For Banking

Up 11% ex financials, and if you do it ex financial writeoffs and include financial operating earnings its higher than that. The risks to 2008 come from perceived risks of a general slowdown that hasn’t happened yet. They also point to the January payroll number to support their 2008 concerns. Yes, payrolls ...Read More

2008-02-04 US Economic Releases

Challenger Job Cuts Total (Jan) Survey n/a Actual 74,986 Prior 44,416 Revised n/a A volatile number that has been showing low levels of layoffs and not given much weight either way. Factory Orders (Dec) Survey n/a Actual 441,566 Prior 431,489 Revised n/a Another strong number – no sign of recession here. ♥ ...Read More