2008-09-18 USER


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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 13)

Survey 440K
Actual 445K
Prior 445K
Revised n/a

 
Staying at the top of the new range since the extended benefit package went into force. And might be a touch high due to the hurricane.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 6)

Survey 3525K
Actual 3478K
Prior 3525K
Revised 3533K

 
Down a bit and better than expected but still on the high side.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 13)

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Philadelphia Fed (Sep)

Survey -10.0
Actual 3.8
Prior -12.7
Revised n/a

 
Back to positive territory with an upside surprise.

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE (Sep)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Leading Indicators (Aug)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

 
Leading indicators down more than expected. This is largely a financial conditions indicator.

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Aug)

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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 10k to new cycle of 455k but DOL states Gustav-related claims helped boost weekly rise.

  • 4wk avg rises to 445k from 440k.

  • Continuing claims fall 55k to 3478k, partially reversing prior weeks large 129k increase.

  • 4wk average of continuing rises from 3431k to 3461k.

  • Even if initial claims would have been lower ex-Gustav, recent trends in both IJC and CC reflect a faster pace of labor market deterioration.

  • Next month’s payrolls likely to be down more than 100k.


  • Activity index rises from -12.7 to 3.8.

  • Prices paid drop from 57.5 to 31.5.

  • Orders and shipments rise 17.5 and 5.9pts, respectively, both into modest positive position.

  • Employment component basically unch at -0.9.


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On the floor of the Senate today


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From the last two paragraphs it looks like another fiscal package is on the way?

Interesting how little damage to the real economy it takes to trigger a fiscal response – GDP last printed at 3.3% and the relatively modest job losses are not nearly enough to have triggered a fiscal response in the past from either party?

So it seems behind the rhetoric the Democrats in Congress are in fact reacting more to financial sector needs.

Probably because, like the Republicans, most of their constituents are also shareholders.

The move to broaden shareholdings has had profound political ramifications that has undercut the previous agendas of both parties.

A few months ago the far left in Congress was congratulating the Fed chairman for keeping inflation expectation well contained even as other prices were rising, after it was explained that this meant keeping wages in check.

Since when doe the ‘far left’ praise a Fed chairman for suppressing wages, especially when the cost of living is on the rise???

Having a nation of shareholders seems to have redirected overall public purpose?

The 30% corporate income tax means the government already ‘better than ownes’ 30% off all the US based equity- it’s the direct pipe, and easily increased or decreased by decree.

Equity held at this level has very different political effects than individual ownership of shares.

Yet there is no discussion of any of this, anywhere in the public debate.

Meanwhile, crude seems to be acting like the ‘Master’s inventory liquidation’ may have run its course and the Saudis are again moving prices back up as demand for their output remains firm and their excess capacity is too thin for comfort.

This drives down the USD, making our stocks ‘cheaper’ to foreigners, so look for more foreign takeovers, which will be spun as the US ‘needing’ foreign borrowers and being ‘rescued’ by them.

Reid: While Financial Markets Reel, Bush-McCain Republicans Call For More Of The Same

Washington, DC—Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid made the following statement today on the floor of the U.S. Senate. Below are his remarks as prepared for delivery:

“On the morning of October 30, 1929, President Herbert Hoover awoke the day after the biggest one-day stock market crash in American history, surveyed the state of the U.S. economy and declared, ‘The fundamental business of the country, that is production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.’

“In the coming weeks and months, President Hoover remained in an economic bubble, unaware of the extreme suffering of ordinary Americans – even declaring that anyone who questioned the state of the economy was a ‘fool.’ For Herbert Hoover, ignorance was bliss. And it wasn’t until the American people replaced this out of touch Republican president with a Democrat, Franklin Roosevelt, that our nation’s economic recovery began.

“Yesterday, nearly 80 years after the Hoover Administration took America with blissful ignorance into depression, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 500 points – the biggest one-day decline since trading opened after the attacks of 9/11. With one major investment bank headed for bankruptcy, another sold at a bargain-basement price, and one of the world’s largest insurance companies teetering, investors rushed to sell their shares.

“With our financial markets reeling, the American people are wondering whether they will lose their jobs, whether they will be able to pay their child’s next tuition bill, whether their pension and retirement savings will be safe.

“There is no reason to think we are headed into an economic depression. There is no reason to panic. Yet one Senator – John McCain – woke up yesterday morning, surveyed the state of the U.S. economy, summoned the ghost of his fellow Republican, Herbert Hoover, and declared, ‘The fundamentals of our economy are strong.’

“For whom are the fundamentals of our economy strong? Not for the 606,000 Americans who have lost their jobs this year alone. Not for the commuters and truckers who are sending more and more of their hard-earned dollars to pay for fuel. Not for all those struggling to make one pay check last until the next, with record hme heating prices looming in the coming winter months. Not for cities and towns that have been forced to cut back on police, schools and firefighters because their tax base is shrinking. And certainly not for the millions of families who have or may soon lose their homes, or for the tens of millions who are seeing their home equity plummet.

“No matter what George Bush, John McCain or the ghost of Herbert Hoover may think, this economy is not strong, and the American people deserve better.

“This is not a time for panic. But it is a time to look back on the past eight years of Bush-Hoover-McCain economics and figure out what brought us to this point so that we don’t repeat the same mistakes. And the tragic truth is that this disaster was avoidable. In its palpable disdain for all things relating to government, the Bush/Cheney Administration willfully neglected the government’s most important function: to safeguard the American people from harm.

“In their simplistic philosophy of ‘big business equals good, government equals bad,’ the Administration and the Republican Congress failed to conduct oversight and let the financial sector go wild. Without anyone regulating their actions, market excess destroyed the financial prudence that allowed a firm like Lehman Brothers to prosper for 158 years. Vast fortunes were made virtually over night, and now vast fortunes have been lost literally over night.

“The unfortunate irony is that the Bush Administration’s zeal to favor big business has now crippled it – and left the American people to pay the price. President Bush did nothing to stop this disaster, and now it’s clear he’ll leave the mess to the next president.

“Now our nation must decide who is better suited to end Bush-Hoover economics and return sanity and security to our economy. Senator McCain says the economy is not his strong suit, so he went searching for an economic advisor who could bolster his weakness. Who did he choose? Former Senator Phil Gramm. The same Phil Gramm who, as a Senator, was responsible for deregulation in the financial services industries that paved the way for much of this crisis to occur.

“A respected economist at the University of Texas, James K. Galbraith, said that Gramm was ‘the most aggressive advocate of every predatory and rapacious element that the financial sector has’ and that ‘he’s a sorcerer’s apprentice of instability and disaster in the financial system.’

“It was Phil Gramm who pushed legislation through a Republican Senate that allowed firms like Enron to avoid regulation and destroy the life savings of its employees, and it was Phil Gramm’s legislation that now allows Wall Street traders to bid up the price of oil, leaving us to pay the bill. Warren Buffet called the result of Gramm’s legislation ‘financial weapons of mass destruction.’ And now, the architect and leading cheerleader for every mistake and neglect that created the Bush/Cheney financial nightmare is whispering into the ear of John McCain – who says he doesn’t know much about the economy.

“Whether you call it Hoover economics, Bush economics, or McCain economics, it is not a recipe for change – it’s a recipe for more of the same.

“For all of the college students worried about finding a job, the working families who don’t know how they’ll pay the bills, and the fixed-income senior citizens trying to figure out how to pay for medicine, we must do better.

“We can’t afford another Republican president who will follow his party’s ghosts down the path of recession, depression and more suffering. We desperately need a president who understands that working people, not industry titans, are the backbone of our economy. We need a president who will cut taxes for working people and senior citizens; end the windfall profits of oil companies and put that money back into the pockets of those who are paying record prices at the pump; and put millions of Americans back to work by investing in jobs on Main Street, not Wall Street.

“In November, we can elect that President who will break from the past and invest in the future. Until then, the Senate should pass a second economic stimulus plan that funds infrastructure projects that will create jobs; prevents cuts in desperately-needed state services; and invests in renewable energy, expanded unemployment benefits for victims of the Bush-McCain economy, and helps working people and senior citizens afford the costs of energy.

“I expect the House of Representatives to pass a stimulus bill in the coming days. When it arrives in the Senate, I hope it will be embraced by Senators from both parties as a critical first step on the long road from economic ruin toward economic recovery.”


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Fed increasing $ vs fx swap lines to ECB and others


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This is an extension of credit to those CBs which functionally allows them to borrow (and thereby also get ‘short’) USD, presumably to fund their local USD needs for their institutions short USD, and presumably to cover losses on their USD financial assets and to finance the remaining balances.

The ECB has no USD to fund its member banks, and is not inclined to sell euros and buy USD as, at a minimum, a matter of ideology.

This is not a good sign for the eurozone banking system solvency, though the size is modest, at least for now.


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Equity prices dropping to takeover levels


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A while back I wrote about how shareholders were at risk of management selling them up the river with dilutive converts and the like.

But if a someone buys all the shares in a takeover they don’t have that risk.

Therefore, I concluded, equities would get cheap enough for a massive round of takeovers.

Now a different risk has presented itself. Seems when the Fed or the Treasury decides to step in and help they take 79.9% of the equity.

So when the stock of a too-big-to-fail prospect starts going down, the incentives are in place for it going down further/faster as the risk of government intervention increases.

Lower prices make takeovers even more attractive.

Once they get going, look for record takeover volume.


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Re: Commentary


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>   
>   On Wed, Sep 17, 2008 at 8:54 AM, Pat wrote:
>   
>   Summary of Michael Cloherty (BoA) assessment this morning:
>   
>   Following Reserve’s Primary Money Mkt Fund breaking the buck, we are looking
>   at possible structural changes to the funding markets depending on how the
>   money investor’s perception of Money Mkts funds safety is. Massive
>   withdrawals from this $4.6 trillion market could be devastating most of the
>   money would go to T-bills and bank deposits.
>   

all the t bills are already sold so what it does is bid up t bills to new indifference levels. quantity stays the same

yes, bank deposits would go up, and banks would invest in what the money funds were investing in, though perhaps at different spreads

the move to money markets was a disintermediating event.

instead of putting funds in banks, they put them in money funds

since ‘loans create deposits’ this changed the entire financial landscape

repo, commercial paper and other funding instruments replaced bank lending to create the newly desired money fund balances.

>   
>   This is rattling the repo markets which were already under enormous pressure.
>   The repo market relies on the MMKT funds cash to back it. “If withdrawals are
>   large enough we will head towards a bank financed system (as if balance sheets
>   weren’t crowded enough already). Liquidity could get worse”.
>   

with the falling desire for money fund balances vs bank deposits funding returns to the banking system.

>   
>   At the very least money market funds will be defensive and cash will be
>   expensive in the mornings as they switch to O/N repos and CP.
>   

yes, it’s all returning to bank funding at the moment, which means wider spreads for borrowers

we are now in the endgame of the great repricing of risk as previous business models go by the wayside and new ones emerge.

warren

>   
>   -Pat–
>   


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Bloomberg: Europe Trade Deficit Widens to Record on Exports, Energy Costs


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What’s happening is the world desire to net accumulate euro financial assets has increased and can only be achieved by the rest of the world net selling goods and services (or real assets) to the eurozone.

Europe Trade Deficit Widens to Record on Exports, Energy Costs

by Fergal O’Brien

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) Europe’s trade gap widened to a record in July as a cooling global economy damped exports and crude oil’s advance to a record boosted the energy deficit.

The 15-nation euro region had a seasonally adjusted deficit of 6.4 billion euros ($9.1 billion), compared with a 3.5 billion-euro trade gap in June, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The July deficit is the largest since the euro was introduced in 1999.

Euro-area exports to the U.S., the second-biggest buyer of the region’s goods, have fallen the most since 2003 this year as economic expansion there has eased. At the same time, record oil prices pushed up spending on imported fuels such as gasoline and heating oil by 41 percent, further widening the trade gap.

“On the one side, you’re getting weakness in exports and that then is feeding through to weaker industrial production,” said Marco Valli, an economist at Unicredit MIB in Milan. “On the other side, there is the oil prices and in July we will see the maximum impact of that, as oil peaked in early July.”

Crude oil reached a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 and the euro region’s energy imports soared 41 percent to 151 billion euros in the first half, according to today’s report. The detailed data are published with a one-month lag.

The soaring energy costs boosted imports from Russia, which supplies 34 percent of Europe’s imported oil and 40 percent of its imported gas. Overall imports from Russia, home of OAO Gazprom, the world’s biggest gas producer, soared 22 percent in the first half and the euro area’s trade gap with the nation soared 25 percent to 20.4 billion euros, today’s report showed.

First-Half Decline
The detailed data for the January-June period also showed exports to the U.S., the world’s largest economy, fell 4 percent from a year earlier. That is the biggest first-half decline since a 9 percent drop in 2003. Shipments to the U.K., the euro area’s biggest trading partner, rose 1 percent.

The euro reached a record above $1.60 to the dollar in July, taking its gain over the previous 12 months to 15 percent. The euro’s strength undermines the competitiveness of European goods sold abroad. The currency was at $1.4224 today, down 11 percent from its record.

A slowdown in overseas sales has curbed production at Europe’s factories and dragged the region’s economy into its first contraction in almost a decade in the second quarter. Manufacturing activity has contracted for the last three months, according to a monthly survey of purchasing managers, while export orders have fallen for five months.

`Mightily Relieved’
“Euro-zone exporters will be mightily relieved by the recent marked retreat in the euro from its July peak,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at Global Insight in London. “However, this is being countered by slowing global growth and a very uncertain outlook.”

Some companies have tried to offset falling U.S. orders by expanding in Asia and oil-exporting countries. Asian sales at French skin-creams maker Clarins SA rose 3 percent in the second quarter as North American sales fell by the same percentage.

Volkswagen AG, Europe’s biggest carmaker, on Sept. 8 said emerging markets will provide the fastest growth in worldwide sales over the next 10 years, led by economic expansion in Asia and Russia.

Europe’s trade deficit with China, which last year overtook the U.K. to become the euro area’s biggest supplier, narrowed by 1.2 percent to 49.9 billion euros in the six months through June. Exports to Asia’s second biggest economy rose 15 percent.

Economists had expected the euro region to show a trade deficit of 3.5 million euros in July, compared with an initially reported 3 billion-euro deficit in June, according to the median of nine estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.


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Fed loan to AIG


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My question remains: can they give the shareholders less than they would have gotten in a bankruptcy?

The burden of proof may be on the government to show that the shareholders are better off with the 20% of net worth they are giving them due to the value added of the loan facility, vs 100% of the net worth in a straight bankruptcy.

Press Release

Release Date: September 16, 2008

For release at 9:00 p.m. EDT

The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday, with the full support of the Treasury Department, authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lend up to $85 billion to the American International Group (AIG) under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The secured loan has terms and conditions designed to protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers.

The Board determined that, in current circumstances, a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs, reduced household wealth and materially weaker economic performance.

The purpose of this liquidity facility is to assist AIG in meeting its obligations as they come due. This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy.

The AIG facility has a 24-month term. Interest will accrue on the outstanding balance at a rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points. AIG will be permitted to draw up to $85 billion under the facility.

The interests of taxpayers are protected by key terms of the loan. The loan is collateralized by all the assets of AIG, and of its primary non-regulated subsidiaries. These assets include the stock of substantially all of the regulated subsidiaries. The loan is expected to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale of the firm’s assets. The U.S. government will receive a 79.9 percent equity interest in AIG and has the right to veto the payment of dividends to common and preferred shareholders.


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NYT: Fed to Give A.I.G. $85 bln Loan and Takeecon


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The Fed has a major strategic advantage over private sector buyers.

With the Fed making the loan, credit spreads in general should narrow.

This will add value to AIG’s short credit position which is where most of the mark to market losses are.

So the Fed’s actions to reduce systemic risk also increase the value of AIG once they take them over.

It’s good to be the Fed!

(not that it matters to the Fed itself financially one way or the other, but they probably don’t know that)

Fed Close to Deal to Give A.I.G. $85 Billion Loan


by Michael J. de la Merced and Eric Dash

In an extraordinary turn, the Federal Reserve was close to a deal Tuesday night to take a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant insurance company, the American International Group, in exchange for an $85 billion loan, according to people briefed on the negotiations.

In return, the Fed will receive warrants, which give it an ownership stake. All of A.I.G.’s assets will be pledged to secure the loan, these people said.

The Fed’s action was disclosed after Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson and Ben S. Bernanke, president of the Federal Reserve, went to Capitol Hill on Tuesday evening to meet with House and Senate leaders. Mr. Paulson called the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada, about 5 p.m. and asked for a meeting in the Senate leader’s office, which began about 6:30 p.m.

The Federal Reserve and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase had been trying to arrange a $75 billion loan for A.I.G. to stave off the financial crisis caused by complex debt securities and credit default swaps . The Federal Reserve stepped in after it became clear Tuesday afternoon that the banking consortium would not be able to complete the deal.

Without the help, A.I.G. was expected to be forced to file for bankruptcy protection.

The need for the loans became necessary after the major credit ratings agencies downgraded A.I.G. late Monday, a move that likely to have forced the company to turn over billions of dollars in collateral to its derivatives trading partners worsening its financial health.

Until this week, it would have been unthinkable for the Federal Reserve to bail out an insurance company, and A.I.G.’s request for help from the Fed of just a few days ago was rebuffed.

But with the prospect of a giant bankruptcy looming – one with unpredictable consequences for the world financial system – the Fed abandoned precedent and agreed to let the money flow.


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