Japan Not Immune To Debt Crisis, BOJ Kamezaki Says

Not to be outdone by the rest of the world’s central bankers:

Japan Not Immune To Debt Crisis, BOJ Kamezaki Says

By Tatsuo Ito

February 28 (DJ) — A Bank of Japan policy board member said Wednesday that Japan is not immune to a Europe-style debt crisis as confidence in the country’s government bonds could quickly weaken if concerns over its fiscal state mount.

The European crisis “is not a fire on the other side of the river,” Hidetoshi Kamezaki told business leaders in Fukuoka, western Japan, using an phrase frequently employed by Japanese policy makers over the last few months to warn that a Europe-style crisis could spread to Japanese shores.

“It’s not appropriate to assume there won’t be concerns about JGBs,” in the future just because the bonds continue to be smoothly bought in the market, Kamezaki said, adding that confidence in government debt can change unexpectedly.

Japan’s fiscal conditions are the worst among developed nations, with a gross public debt of around 200% of its annual economic output, but the country has so far avoided a Greece-style crisis as domestic investors hold almost all of its debt.

An ample and steady flow of funds from overseas in the form of a surplus in its current account — which includes trade — has financed the debt, but recent data suggest that could be changing.

Japan recorded a trade deficit for all of last year, meaning that if the trend were to continue, the country may need to rely on foreign capital to finance its debt, like many of the European countries being hit by the debt crisis.

Kamezaki played down the possibility of Japan’s current account moving into the red, saying flows of income stemming from the country’s external assets worth Y250 trillion could be maintained.

“The trend of Japan’s current account surplus will not change for a while unless the trade deficit grows rapidly,” Kamezaki said.

At around 0030 GMT, the benchmark 10-year government bond yield was at 0.965%.

Kamezaki also said the central bank should keep actively implementing policies to ensure the Japanese economy can overcome deflation and achieve sustainable growth with price stability.

“The BOJ should continue to pro-actively implement policies needed to achieve these purposes,” Kamezaki said.

The BOJ on Feb. 14 surprised the markets by boosting the size of its asset purchase program–the main tool for credit easing amid near zero interest rates–to Y65 trillion from Y55 trillion by increasing purchases of Japanese government bonds. It also clarified a near-term inflation goal for overcoming deflation.

The financial markets have reacted positively to the BOJ’s actions, with the dollar briefly hitting a nine-month high of Y81.66 on Monday and the stock market rallying.

Osborne Says Moody’s Warning on Debt Shows U.K. Can’t Waver on Austerity

One more for the scrap book.
This stuff is now way beyond comment.

Osborne Says Moody’s Warning on Debt Shows U.K. Can’t Waver on Austerity

By Robert Hutton and Gonzalo Vina

February 14 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne fended off accusations that he’s not doing enough to boost growth and said a warning by Moody’s Investors Service that Britain may lose its Aaa credit ratingshowed he’s right to focus on reducing borrowing.

“For me it was a reality check,” Osborne told BBC Radio 4’s “Today” show this morning. “It’s yet another reminder that Britain doesn’t have an easy way out of its economic problems. Of course the weaker growth prospects of Britain and just about every other economy is a challenge. People have a choice about where to put their money. If they don’t see Britain dealing with its problems, they will take their money elsewhere.”

The driver behind the change to a “negative outlook” for Britain’s Aaa rated debt is a “weaker macroeconomic environment,” Moody’s said in a statement in London late yesterday. Shocks from the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis are also weighing on the U.K., it said.

Osborne rejected criticism from the opposition Labour Party that he’s too focused on retaining Britain’s top-grade credit rating, arguing that keeping borrowing costs low is the best way to deliver growth. Ed Balls, Labour’s Treasury spokesman, said today that Osborne’s austerity program is getting in the way of economic expansion and risks tipping the U.K. into its second recession in less than three years.

‘Waking Up’

“I fear the world is making the 1930s mistake, and the ratings agencies are partners in this,” Balls told the BBC. “Today is the first evidence that even the ratings agencies are waking up.”

U.K. 10-year gilt yields were little changed at 2.12 percent at 9:41 a.m. in London after inflationslowed to the least in 14 months in January. The pound fell 0.3 percent to $1.5724, after earlier declining to $1.5686, a two-week low.

“The U.K.’s outstanding debt places it amongst the most heavily indebted of its Aaa rated peers, alongside the United States and France, whose Aaa ratings also carry a negative outlook,” Moody’s said.

Spending cuts that helped the U.K. preserve its top credit rating last year and bolstered the pound are now weighing on the currency as investors lose confidence. Sterling had its worst January since 2008 against a basket of nine developed-market peers, falling 0.6 percent, after a 3.1 percent advance in the second half of 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Gilts are lagging behind lower-rated Treasuries, after world- beating gains of almost 17 percent last year.

Japan Adopts Stealth Intervention as Yen Gains Hurt Growth

Japan traditionally bought $ and built it’s fx reserves to support its exporters.

It was finally Tsy Sec. Paulson who shamed them into suspending their $ purchases by calling Japan, China, and others ‘outlaws’ and ‘currency manipulators’ in what was then, functionally, an attempt at a ‘weak dollar’ policy.

The current administration, however, is on the defensive with regards to the dollar, under attack from political adversaries for allowing the Fed to ‘print money’ and ‘debase the currency’ even as the dollar has been reasonably strong.

So Japan has been testing the waters first with an announced ‘one time’ intervention in response to the earthquake, which didn’t attract the name calling of the prior US administration, and now with the announcement of ongoing intervention.

Seems to me its highly unlikely the US administration will respond negatively which would support their opposition’s ‘currency debasing’ labeling. So I expect Japan to continue to sell yen in an orderly fashion at least until they strike a US nerve.

Japan Adopts Stealth Intervention as Yen Gains Hurt Growth

By Monami Yui and Shigeki Nozawa

Feb 7 (Bloomberg) — Japan used so-called stealth intervention in November as the government sought to stem yen gains that hammered earnings at makers of exports ranging from cars to electronics.

Finance Ministry data released today showed Japan conducted 1.02 trillion yen ($13.3 billion) worth of unannounced intervention during the first four days of November, after selling a record 8.07 trillion yen on Oct. 31, when the yen climbed to a post World War II high of 75.35 against the dollar. The currency’s strength has eroded profits at exporters such as Sharp Corp. and Honda Motor Co., just as faltering global growth undermines demand.

“Japan has clearly shown its intention to stop a further appreciation of the yen, and there is a high chance” for more yen selling, said Hideki Shibata, a senior strategist for rates and foreign exchange at Tokai Tokyo Research Center Co. “Caution against intervention has increased in markets.”

November’s unannounced yen sales were the most effective strategy to weaken the currency, said a Japanese official who spoke to reporters in Tokyo today on condition of anonymity. Finance Minister Jun Azumi said he won’t rule out any options to curb the yen’s appreciation and that he will take action whenever necessary.

Exporting ‘Nearly Impossible’

His comment came a week after Sharp, Japan’s largest maker of LCD panels, forecast its worst annual loss since its founding a century ago, with its president saying exporting is “nearly impossible” with the strong yen. Panasonic Corp., Japan’s biggest appliance maker, forecast a 780 billion yen loss, the worst since the Osaka-based company was established in 1918.

Honda, the nation’s third-largest automobile maker, forecast on Jan. 31 net income for the 12 months ending March will decline to a three-year low of 215 billion yen. The company estimates its operating income is cut by 15 billion yen for every one yen gain against the dollar.

The Bank of Japan last month lowered its forecast for economic growth to 2 percent in the year starting in April from an October estimate of 2.2 percent, citing a slowdown overseas and the stronger yen.

The U.S. Treasury Department criticized Japan in a December report for unilaterally selling its currency in August and October, saying the Asian nation should focus on steps to “increase the dynamism of the domestic economy.” Intervention is an option if the yen moves excessively, Naoyuki Shinohara, a deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, said in an interview in Tokyo on Feb. 3.

U.S. Criticism

“Coming under growing criticism from overseas, Japan couldn’t openly intervene in the markets,” said Junichi Ishikawa, an analyst in Tokyo at IG Markets Securities Ltd. “Japan had to choose stealth intervention from the very few options to deal with increasing pressure within the country.”

Intervention is defined as “stealth” when it’s done without any finance ministry announcement, he said.

The yen sale in October was the biggest intervention on a monthly basis in data going back to 1991, while sales totaled 14.3 trillion yen in 2011, the third-largest annual amount, ministry data also showed.

No New Tactics

“We do not believe that the intervention over a period of several days by Japanese authorities signals a significant shift in tactics compared to previous interventions,” Osamu Takashima, Issei Suzuki and Todd Elmer, foreign-exchange strategists at Citibank Japan Ltd. in Tokyo, wrote in a note to clients today. “Investors may be inclined to sell into any renewed bout of intervention on USDJPY on a breakdown beneath recent range lows.”

The first intervention of 2011 was a 692.5 billion yen sale on March 18, when the Bank of Japan led a coordinated effort with Group of Seven nations to counter a jump in the yen after a record earthquake struck Japan a day earlier, stoking speculation companies would repatriate overseas assets to pay for rebuilding. Current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who was finance minister at the time, ordered the nation’s central bank to intervene again unilaterally on Aug. 4.

The yen reached 76.03 per dollar on Feb. 1, the strongest since Oct. 31. It traded at 76.72 as of 2:33 p.m. today in Tokyo.

Bristol Pound currency can be used for tax payment

This will work- can be used to pay local taxes:

‘Bristol Pound’ currency to boost independent traders

By Dave Harvey

Feb 5 (BBC) — The Euro is in trouble, the world’s financial system is in turmoil. Is this the perfect time for cities to go it alone, and print their own money?

A group of independent traders in Bristol are launching their own currency, with the backing of the council and a credit union.

The “Bristol Pound” will be printed in notes, and also traded electronically.

There are other local currencies in the UK, but this is the first which can be used to pay local business taxes.

Ciaran Mundy, the director of the Bristol Pound, explained the concept behind the currency.

“Big companies just hoover up money from a local area,” he told me.

“Money goes into their financial system and typically out into London and into the offshore sector.”

Corporate challenge
But by definition, Bristol pounds must stay in the city. Spend a tenner in a Bristol bakery, and they must use it to pay their suppliers or staff. In turn, those companies will have to use the money within the local economy.

“We’ll be driving more business to independent traders, and ensuring the diversity of our city, which is one of the things people love about Bristol,” Mr Mundy said.

Already more than 100 firms are signed up. A family bakery, the Tobacco Factory Theatre, the Ferry company, dozens of small cafes – even Thatcher’s Cider will accept Bristol pounds.

So how will it work?

They will print notes in £1, £5, £10 and £20 denominations. A Bristol pound will be worth exactly £1 sterling.

People will open an account with the Bristol Credit Union, which is administering the scheme, and for every pound sterling they deposit, they will be credited one Bristol pound.

This money can then either be cashed, or used electronically to pay bills online or even with a mobile phone.

Since the money is held by the credit union, which has FSA backing, it will have the same protection as any other deposit account. The standard government scheme guarantees up to £85,000 per person.

Bristolians are being challenged to help design the new notes. The organisers have already created a logo, and produced security features to counter forgery.

There is a silver hologram design, a gold foil strip with serial numbers embedded, and other features which are impossible to reproduce.

But whose face should be on the notes? That is down to Bristolians.

Small change?
“Bristol’s own currency should reflect the values and the lives of people who live here,” explained the designer, Adele Graham.

“We’re open to any suggestions. It could be famous people, but it can be any design at all which Bristolians feel represents their city.”

Local people can submit their ideas on the Bristol Pound’s website. The competition will run until the end of February, and the notes will be launched in May.

But will the Bristol Pound really take off?

Most local currencies have remained small. The Totnes Pound was the first to launch, in Devon in 2006, and has 70 traders involved.

Eighteen months ago Stroud, in Gloucestershire, starting printing its own currency, but to date no more than 30 firms are taking the money.

Bristol’s organisers point to two key differences: online banking, and council support.

Since the scheme is run by a bona fide financial institution, the Bristol Credit Union, traders can pay each other large amounts of money at the click of a button.

Also unique is the ability to pay local business rates in local currency. The council leader, Councillor Barbara Janke, is fully behind the scheme.

She told me: “This is a chance to demonstrate the economic resilience of the city.

“We want to make it as easy as possible for people to use the Bristol Pound.”

‘No real boost’
Paying business rates in Bristol pounds means firms need not worry about being stuck with thousands of pounds they can’t spend, if their own suppliers refuse them.

Naturally, there are sceptics. Will people find it inconvenient to carry two kinds of notes in their pockets? Will it be more than a gimmick?

Interestingly, it is the prospect of success that worries some the most.

Ben Yearsley understands money. Big money. He is an investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, the Bristol finance house which looks after £22bn of people’s savings.

He points out that the scheme will do nothing to help Britain’s economic recovery.

“This won’t boost spending,” he explained. “It will merely move money from one sector to another, from national firms to local ones.”

And if the Bristol Pound really works, Mr Yearsley worries that big national firms may be put off.

“A lot of people work for the national companies, and you may actually cause an increase in unemployment. Worse, there may be a brake on investment in the city.”

But the organisers think he worries too much.

Stephen Clarke, a local lawyer who is working for the new currency for nothing, said: “This is not an attack on national chains.

“We just want to preserve our local independents, and you can see how hard it is for them at the moment.”

Whenever local shops close down, and supermarkets or chain stores open, there are complaints about “cloned high streets” and “chain store Britain”.

Well, now if people really want to support independents, they can quite literally put their money where their mouth is.

CHINESE PREMIER WEN JIABAO SAYS CHINA NEEDS TO HELP EUROPE

Trojan horse
They just want to support their exports.

Premier Wen says China needs to help Europe – report

Feb 5 (Reuters) — Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that China needs to help Europe stabilise its markets due to strategic considerations in its relations with the region, the official China Securities Journal reported on Monday.

China also needs to keep its policy on imports and exports stable via more encouragements rather than restrictions, the newspaper quoted Wen as saying during a visit to China’s southern province of Guangdong earlier this month.

“Europe is now in a debt crisis,” Wen was quoted as saying. “We must consider our relations with Europe from strategic needs, maintaining our nation’s own interest.

“On the other hand, Europe is our largest export market. Europe is our biggest source of technological imports. Helping Europe stabilise its markets is thus helping ourselves.”

from a primary dealer

Preface. I generally subscribe to the view that in free currencies, deficits are mostly self-funding, and ‘enormous’ deficits needn’t be accompanied by higher yields. Government builds a bridge, pays the bridgebuilder, who pays the grocer, who eventually either buys the Treasury or deposits in a bank whose reserves are fungible vs T-bills via the intermediating Fed. Government dissavings and private sector savings are equal and offsetting, as long as the Central Bank has a working spreadsheet and an interest rate target. Yields are just a function of duration needs of savers vs borrowers, but the AMOUNTS always match up. Likewise, I don’t believe that the creation of bank reserves is inflationary or hyper-inflationary; bank lending is capital – not reserve – constrained. Loan officers don’t check the vaults. There is always enough. I continue to marvel at the armies of deficit vigilantes who take aim at Treasuries and JGBs, armed with Gold Standard thinking or even the latest Reinhart/Rogoff, only to retreat 2-3 year later. It didn’t work shorting US Treasuries in 2009-2010 for the ‘money supply’ or ‘deficit spike,’ and that roadside is stacked with corpses. Even the Home Run deficit vigilante hitters who nailed Europe this year (and Europe is, for now, operating as a quasi-Gold standard and an entirely different set of risks) offset those gains with losses betting the other way on the US, UK, and Japan. It’s evident in the returns.

politics shifting towards JG?

U.K. to Propose Work-for-Benefits Program, Sunday Times Reports

By Svenja O’Donnell

Jan 8 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. coalition government is planning a compulsory community work program for the long-term unemployed, the Sunday Times said, citing Employment Minister Chris Grayling.

The plan will include stopping benefits for as many as three years for those who refuse to sign up, the newspaper said.

Grayling has indicated his support for the plan, saying a “work for dole” program will help curb the U.K.’s expenditure on benefits for the jobless, the paper said.

People who have been unemployed for three years or more will be forced to work unpaid for six months under the terms of the program, the Sunday Times said.

John Carney on MMT and Austrian Economics

Another well stated piece from John Carney on the CNBC website:

Modern Monetary Theory and Austrian Economics

By John Carney

Dec 27 (CNBC) — When I began blogging about Modern Monetary Theory, I knew I risked alienating or at least annoying some of my Austrian Economics friends. The Austrians are a combative lot, used to fighting on the fringes of economic thought for what they see as their overlooked and important insights into the workings of the economy.

Which is one of the things that makes them a lot like the MMT crowd.

There are many other things that Austrian Econ and MMT share. A recent post by Bob Wenzel at Economic Policy Journal, which is presented as a critique of my praise of some aspects of MMT, actually makes this point very well.

The MMTers believe that the modern monetary system—sovereign fiat money, unlinked to any commodity and unpegged to any other currency—that exists in the United States, Canada, Japan, the UK and Australia allows governments to operate without revenue constraints. They can never run out of money because they create the money they spend.

This is not to say that MMTers believe that governments can spend without limit. Governments can overspend in the MMT paradigm and this overspending leads to inflation. Government financial assets may be unlimited but real assets available for purchase—that is, goods and services the economy is capable of producing—are limited. The government can overspend by (a) taking too many goods and services out of the private sector, depriving the private sector of what it needs to satisfy the people, grow the economy and increase productivity or (b) increasing the supply of money in the economy so large that it drives up the prices of goods and services.

As Wenzel points out, Murray Rothbard—one of the most important Austrian Economists the United States has produced—takes exactly the same position. He says that governments take “control of the money supply” when they find that taxation doesn’t produce enough revenue to cover expenditures. In other words, fiat money is how governments escape revenue constraint.

Rothbard considers this counterfeiting, which is a moral judgment that depends on the prior conclusion that fiat money isn’t the moral equivalent of real money. Rothbard is entitled to this view—I probably even share it—but that doesn’t change the fact that in our economy today, this “counterfeiting” is the operational truth of our monetary system. We can decry it—but we might as well also try to understand what it means for us.

Rothbard worries that government control of the money supply will lead to “runaway inflation.” The MMTers tend to be more sanguine about the danger of inflation than Rothbard—although I do not believe they are entitled to this attitude. As I explained in my piece “Monetary Theory, Crony Capitalism and the Tea Party,” the MMTers tend to underestimate the influence of special interests—including government actors and central bankers themselves—on monetary policy. They have monetary policy prescriptions that would avoid runaway inflation but, it seems to me, there is little reason to expect these would ever be followed in the countries that are sovereign currency issuers. I think that on this point, many MMTers confuse analysis of the world as it is with the world as they would like it to be.

In short, the MMTers agree with Rothbard on the purpose and effect of government control of money: it means the government is no longer revenue constrained. They differ about the likelihood of runaway inflation , which is not a difference of principle but a divergence of political prediction.

This point of agreement sets both Austrians and MMTers outside of mainstream economics in precisely the same way. They appreciate that the modern monetary system is very, very different from older, commodity based monetary systems—in a way that many mainstream economists do not.

In MM, CC & TP, I briefly mentioned a few other positions on the economy MMTers tend to share. Wenzel writes that “there is nothing right about these views.”

I don’t think Wenzel actually agrees with himself here. Let’s run through these one by one.

1. The MMTers think the financial system tends toward crisis. Wenzel writes that the financial system doesn’t tend toward crisis. But a moment later he admits that the actual financial system we have does tend toward crisis. All Austrians believe this, as far as I can tell.

What has happened here is that Wenzel is now the one confusing the world as it is with the world as he wishes it would be. Perhaps under some version of the Austrian-optimum financial system—no central bank, gold coin as money, free banking or no fractional reserve banking—we wouldn’t tend toward crisis. But that is not the system we have.

The MMTers aren’t engaged with arguing about the Austrian-optimum financial system. They are engaged in describing the actual financial system we have—which tends toward crisis.

They even agree that the tendency toward crisis is largely caused by the same thing, credit expansions leading to irresponsible lending.

2. The MMTers say that “capitalist economies are not self-regulating.” Again, Wenzel dissents. But if we read “capitalist economies” as “modern economies with central banking and interventionist governments” then the point of disagreement vanishes.

Are we entitled to read “capitalist economies” in this way? I think we are. The MMTers are not, for the most part, attempting to argue with non-existent theoretical economies or describe the epic-era Icelandic political economy. They are dealing with the economy we have, which is usually called “capitalist.” Austrians can argue that this isn’t really capitalism—but this is a terminological quibble. When it comes down to the problem of self-regulation of our so-called capitalist system, the Austrians and MMTers are in agreement.

3. Next up is the MMT view (borrowed from an earlier economic school called “Functional Finance”) that fiscal policy should be judged by its economic effects. Wenzel asks if this means that this “supercedes private property that as long as something is good for the economy, it can be taxed away from the individual?”

Here is a genuine difference between the Austrians—especially those of the Rothbardian stripe—and the MMTers. The MMTers do indeed envision the government using taxes to accomplish what is good for the economy—which, for the most part, means combating inflation. They think that the government may need to use taxation to snuff out inflation at times. Alternatively, the government can also reduce its own spending to extinguish inflation.

Note that we’ve come across a gap between MMTers and Rothbardians that is far smaller than the chasm between either of them and mainstream economics, where taxation of private property and income is regularly seen as justified by the need to fund government operations. MMTers and Austrians both agree that under the current circumstances people in most developed countries are overtaxed.

4. Wenzel actually overlooks the larger gap between Austrians and MMTers, which has to do with the efficacy of government spending. Many MMTers believe that most governments in so-called capitalist economies are not spending enough. Most—if not all—Austrians think that these same government are spending too much.

The Austrian view is based on the idea that government spending tends to distort the economy, in part because—as the MMTers would agree—government spending in our age typically involves monetary expansion. The MMTers, I would argue, have a lot to learn from the Austrians on this point. I think that an MMT effort to more fully engage the Austrians on the topic of the structure of production would be well worth the effort.

5. Wenzel’s challenge to the idea of functional finance is untenable—and not particularly Austrian. He argues that the subjectivity of value means it is impossible for us to tell whether something is “good for the economy.” Humbug. We know that an economy that more fully reflects the aspirations and choices of the individuals it encompasses is better than one that does not. We know that high unemployment is worse than low unemployment. All other things being equal, a more productive economy is superior to a less productive economy, a wealthier economy is better than a more impoverished one.

Wenzel’s position amounts to nihilism. I think he is confusing the theory of subjective value with a deeper relativism. Subjectivism is merely the notion that the value of an economic good—that is, an object or a service—is not inherent to the thing but arises from within the individual’s needs and wants. This does not mean that we cannot say that some economic outcome is better or worse or that certain policy prescription are good for the economy and certain are worse.

It would be odd for any Austrian to adopt the nihilism of Wenzel. It’s pretty rare to ever encounter an Austrian who lacks normative views of the economy. These normative views depend on the view that some things are good for economy and some things are bad. I doubt that Wenzel himself really subscribes to the kind of nihilism he seems to advocate in his post.

Wenzel’s final critique of me is that I over-emphasize cronyism and underplay the deeper problems of centralized power. My reply is three-fold. First, cronyism is a more concrete political problem than centralization; tactically, it makes sense to fight cronyism. Second, cronyism is endemic to centralized government decisions, as the public choice economists have shown. They call it special interest rent-seeking, but that’s egg-head talk from cronyism. Third, I totally agree: centralization is a real problem because the “rationalization” involved necessarily downplays the kinds of unarticulated knowledge that are important to everyday life, prosperity and happiness.

At the level of theory, Austrians and MMTers have a lot in common. Tactically, an alliance makes sense. Intellectually, bringing together the descriptive view of modern monetary systems with Austrian views about the structure of production and limitations of economic planning (as well Rothbardian respect for individual property rights) should be a fruitful project.

So, as I said last time, let’s make it happen.

UK- Resurgent self-employment soars to 75-year high

That includes selling trinkents and services to the higher income foreign tourists and residents. I used to call it Sultan fanning.

It is not a sign of prosperty…

Resurgent self-employment soars to 75-year high

By Richard Tyler

Dec 26 (Telegraph) — Britain is witnessing a renaissance in self-employment on a scale not seen since the 1930s, the latest business figures show.

Barclays estimates that nearly 480,000 new businesses were created over the past year a record and said official statistics revealed that self-employment now stood at the highest level relative to the total working population for 75 years.

The UK is in the middle of a boom for start-ups. Our best guess is that in England and Wales we are up 4pc to 5pc in the year to November and thats on the back of two strong years, said Richard Roberts, small and medium enterprise analyst at Barclays.

He said more people were setting up their own ventures because being self-employed had become more socially accepted.

The enduring nature of the economic downturn was also a factor. Few people will voluntarily risk their savings during short, sharp recessions, Dr Roberts said, with any increase in entrepreneurial activity coming from people shifting from unemployment into self-employment.

As the economy has shown little sign of recovering for the past two years, people were taking the plunge, he said. Most new business owners would have spotted an opportunity to make money, but some will have been made redundant and had no choice.

Noda’s ‘Urgent’ Task Is Tax Rise as Japan Debt Load Swells

Noda’s ‘Urgent’ Task Is Tax Rise as Japan Debt Load Swells

Dec 26 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s next task is securing support for a higher sales tax after Japan’s budget for the next fiscal year showed a record dependence on borrowing to fund government spending.

The government will sell 44.2 trillion yen ($566 billion) of new bonds to fund 90.3 trillion yen of spending, raising the budget’s reliance on debt to an unprecedented 49 percent, a plan approved by the Cabinet in Tokyo on Dec. 24 showed. While spending will decrease for the first time in six years, Noda will delay funding the nation’s pension fund and will create a separate budget account to pay for earthquake reconstruction.

An aging population and two decades of low growth after an asset bubble popped in the early 1990s have left Japan with debt projected at a record 1 quadrillion yen this fiscal year. Noda faces opposition from the public and within his Democratic Party of Japan to increasing the levy even as Standard & Poor’s considers further cutting the nation’s credit rating, reduced in January to AA-.

“The government should hike the consumption tax rate and cut social security spending as soon as possible,” said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and a former Bank of Japan official. “This is urgent. We do not have the luxury of losing any more time.”

About 53 percent of voters oppose an increase, with a third saying Noda should call an election before such legislation, news service Jiji Press said last week, citing a Dec. 9-12 survey of 2,000 people. The DPJ lost its majority in the upper house of the parliament last year after then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan campaigned on a pledge to cut spending and raise the 5 percent sales tax.

‘Constituents’ Purses’

DPJ lawmakers with weak electoral majorities may be “tempted to vote for their constituents’ purses” by opposing an increase, said Jun Okumura, a former Japanese trade ministry official and a consultant at the Eurasia Group risk consulting firm in Tokyo.

While Japan’s gross domestic product grew an annualized 5.6 percent in the three months ended September as demand picked up after the March 11 earthquake, the pace will probably slow. The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for growth of 0.42 percent this quarter. Of the 10 polled this month, five predict GDP will shrink.

Gains in the yen are weighing on growth by eroding exporters’ profits, a factor cited by Moody’s Investors Service in cutting the rating outlook for Toyota Motor Corp. on Dec. 22. Europe’s debt crisis is reducing demand for the nation’s products, while earthquake reconstruction costs will swell spending. The yen traded at 78.09 per dollar on Dec. 23 after touching a post-World War II high of 75.35 on Oct. 31.

Sales Tax Plan

Noda’s party will today present a plan for raising the sales tax, lawmaker Shinichiro Furumoto said last week. The ruling coalition plans to raise the rate to 8 percent in October 2013 and 10 percent in 2015, Kyodo News reported Dec. 21, citing government sources.

The International Monetary Fund says a gradual increase to 15 percent “could provide roughly half of the fiscal adjustment needed to put the public-debt ratio on a downward path.” Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, advocates boosting the tax to “at least” 20 percent.

‘Not Normal Times’

Former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa and Shizuka Kamei, the head of the People’s New Party, a coalition partner, aim to head off the move. Kamei said this month that “we’re not in normal times, and it’s folly to be playing around with the tax system.”

So far, Japan’s debt burden hasn’t impeded the government’s ability to borrow, with 10-year bond yields poised to close below 1 percent for the first year since 2002.

Noda’s spending plan for the year starting April includes a 3.8 trillion yen special account for reconstruction spending.

Besides the consumption tax, a government panel proposes increasing the highest personal income tax rate to 45 percent from 40 percent by the middle of this decade.

“Japan’s government is proposing the right remedies for the country’s fiscal debt problems, but the speed is too slow and we can’t be confident that the measures will actually be implemented,” said Hitoshi Suzuki, a senior researcher of Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo.

Tokyo-based Ratings & Investment Information Inc. cut Japan’s rating for the first time on Dec. 21. S&P has a negative outlook for the nation and said last month that a downgrade may be getting closer after insufficient progress in tackling a public debt burden that is the world’s biggest.

Japan’s structural deficit “is completely out of whack because of increasing social security demands and costs,” Schulz of Fujitsu said last week. “If the government remains lazy in terms of hiking the consumption tax rate, it’s just a matter of time before the very obedient Japanese investors are no longer happy to finance the deficit.