Category Archives: Retail Sales

China, Germany, Productivity, NFIB Index, Redbook, Wholesale Trade

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A few thoughts:

China’s US Tsy holding had been falling perhaps because they were selling $ to buy Yuan to keep it within in the prior band.

Pretty much all exporting nation’s currencies have already weakened vs the $, including the Yen and Euro, so this is a bit of a ‘catch up.’

In a weakening global economy from a lack of demand (sales) and ‘western educated, monetarist, export led growth’ kids now in charge globally, the path of least resistance is a global race to the bottom to be ‘competitive’. And the alternative to currency depreciation, domestic wage cuts, tends to be less politically attractive, as the EU continues to demonstrate.

The tool for currency depreciation is intervention in the FX markets, as China just did, after they tried ‘monetary easing’ which failed, of course. Japan did it via giving the nod to their pension funds and insurance companies to buy unswapped FX denominated securities, after they tried ‘monetary easing’ as well.

The Euro zone did it by frightening China and other CB’s and global and domestic portfolio managers into selling their Euro reserves, by playing on their inflationary fears of ‘monetary easing’-negative rates and QE- they learned in school.

The US used only ‘monetary easing’ and not any form of direct intervention, and so the $ remains strong vs all the rest.

I expect the Euro to now move ever higher until its trade surplus goes away, as global fears of an inflationary currency collapse are reversed and Euro buying resumes as part of global export strategies to export to the Euro zone. And, like the US, the EU won’t use direct intervention, just more ‘monetary easing’.

Ironically, ‘monetary easing’ is in fact ‘fiscal tightening’ as, with govts net payers of interest, it works to remove interest income from the global economy. So the more they do the worse it gets.

‘No matter how much I cut off it’s still too short’ said the hairdresser to the client…

The devaluations shift income from workers who see their purchasing power go down, to exporters who see their margins increase.
To the extent exporters then reduce prices and those price reductions increase their volume of exports, output increases, as does domestic employment. But if wages then go up, the ‘competitiveness’ gained by the devaluation is lost, etc., so that’s not meant to happen.

Also, the additional export volumes are likewise reductions in exports of other nations, who, having been educated at the same elite schools, respond with devaluations of their own, etc. etc. in a global ‘race to the bottom’ for real wages. Hence China letting their currency depreciate rather than spend their $ reserves supporting it.

The elite schools they all went to contrive models that show you can leave national deficit spending at 0, and use ‘monetary policy’ to drive investment and net exports that ‘offset’ domestic savings. It doesn’t work, of course, but they all believe it and keep at it even as it all falls apart around them.

But as long as the US and EU don’t have use of the tools for currency depreciation, the rest of the world can increase it’s exports to these regions via currency depreciation to lower their $ and Euro export prices, all of which is a contractionary/deflationary bias for the US and EU.

Of further irony is that the ‘right’ policy response for the US and EU would be a fiscal adjustment -tax cut or spending increase- large enough to sustain high enough levels of domestic spending for full employment. Unfortunately, that’s not what they learned in school…

The drop in expectations is ominous, particularly as the euro firms:

Germany : ZEW Survey
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Highlights
ZEW’s August survey was mixed with a slightly more optimistic assessment of the current state of the economy contrasting with a fifth consecutive decline in expectations.

The current conditions gauge was up 1.8 points at 65.7, a 3-month high. However, expectations dipped a further 4.7 points to 25.0, their lowest mark since November 2014.


The drop in unit labor costs and downward revision of the prior increase gives the Fed cause to hold off on rate hike aspirations:

United States : Productivity and Costs
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Highlights
A bounce back for output gave first-quarter productivity a lift, up a quarter-to-quarter 1.3 percent vs a revised decline of 1.1 percent in the first quarter. The bounce in output also held down unit labor costs which rose 0.5 percent vs 2.3 percent in the first quarter.

Output in the second quarter rose 2.8 percent vs a depressed 0.5 percent in the first quarter. Compensation rose 1.8 percent, up from 1.1 percent in the first quarter, while hours worked were little changed, up 1.5 percent vs 1.6 in the first quarter.

Looking at year-on-year rates, growth in productivity is very slight at only plus 0.3 percent while costs do show some pressure, up 2.1 percent in a reading, along with the rise in compensation, that will be welcome by Federal Reserve officials who are hoping that gains in wages will help offset weakness in commodity costs and help give inflation a needed boost.


Up a touch but the trend remains negative:

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Redbook retail sales report still bumping along the bottom:

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A decline in sales growth and rise in inventories is yet another negative:

United States : Wholesale Trade
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Highlights
A build in auto inventories as well as for machinery drove wholesale inventories up a much higher-than-expected 0.9 percent in June. Sales at the wholesale level rose only 0.1 percent in the month, in turn driving the stock-to-sales ratio up 1 notch to a less-than-lean 1.30. This ratio was at 1.19 in June last year.

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Mortgage Purchase Apps, EU Retail Sales, Payroll Tax, ADP, Trade, Equity Comment

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While still historically very low, purchase apps are now way up over last year’s particularly depressed levels. Some are replacing all cash buyers, but the increase is also in line with increased existing home sales.

While new home sales were soft, turnover of existing homes has been increasing, and while not directly increasing GDP, existing home sales are generally associated with purchases of furniture, appliances, and other home improvements, and of course real estate commissions.

MBA Mortgage Applications
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Highlights
A drop in rates helped boost mortgage activity in the July 31 week both for home purchases, up 3.0 percent in the week, and for refinancing which rose 6.0 percent. The strength in purchase applications, which are up 23 percent vs this time last year, is a positive indication for home sales. The average 30-year fixed mortgage for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) fell 4 basis points in the week to 4.13 percent.

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EU retail sales

European Union : Retail Sales
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Highlights
Retail sales were surprisingly weak in June. A 0.6 percent monthly fall was the first decline since March and followed a slightly smaller revised 0.1 percent rise in May. Annual workday adjusted growth of purchases was 1.2 percent, down from 2.6 percent in both mid-quarter and April.

June’s setback was primarily attributable to a 0.8 percent monthly drop in sales of food, drink and tobacco. Non-food products, excluding auto fuel, were off only 0.2 percent, although even this was enough to wipe out May’s entire rise. Fuel purchases were flat on the month after a 0.2 percent dip last time.

Regionally, headline weakness was dominated by a 2.3 percent monthly slump in Germany although Spain (minus 0.4 percent) also struggled. More promisingly, France (0.1 percent) saw sales increase for a third consecutive period and there were decent gains in Austria (1.3 percent), Belgium, Latvia and Lithuania (all 0.8 percent) and Estonia (0.7 percent).

The June data make for a second quarter increase in Eurozone retail sales of only 0.3 percent, less than a third of the rate achieved in the previous period and just half of the fourth quarter pace. This does not bode well for real GDP growth. Moreover, the EU Commission’s economic sentiment survey found consumer sentiment falling in July so it may be that the third quarter got off to a less than robust start too. That said, Greek developments are clearly having some impact and a more concrete resolution of the crisis there might be enough to get households happy to spend again.

Big drop in Federal withholding:

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Lower than expected, and June revised down a bit as well, all in line with many recent surveys:

ADP Employment Report
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Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but it has moderated since the beginning of the year. Layoffs in the energy industry and weaker job gains in manufacturing are behind the slowdown. Nonetheless, even at this slower pace of growth, the labor market is fast approaching full employment.”
Read more at Calculated Risk Blog

About as expected with last month’s revision:

United States : International Trade
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Seems the drop in oil prices has been offset by non oil imports, as the trade deficit is looking somewhat wider:

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Both exports and imports are down which indicates a weakening global economy:

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The chart shows the trend of the non petroleum deficit has resumed it’s increase:

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products (wild swings earlier this year were due to West Coast port slowdown).
Read more at Calculated Risk Blog
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Didn’t know we exported any consumer goods!
;)

Exports (Exhibits 3, 6, and 7) Exports of goods decreased $0.2 billion to $127.6 billion in June. Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.5 billion. • Capital goods decreased $0.8 billion. o Telecommunications equipment decreased $0.3 billion. • Industrial supplies and materials decreased $0.6 billion. o Finished metal shapes decreased $0.3 billion. Consumer goods increased $0.8 billion.

Stocks up because jobs were weak and a fed spokesman thought the economy was too weak for a rate hike. ;)

Futures jump on ADP miss, Powell comments

By Jenny Cosgrave

August 5 (CNBC)

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Redbook Retail Sales, Factory Orders, Econ Confidence

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Speaks for itself:

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Nice to see an up month after a down one, but the year over year chart says it all:

Factory Orders
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Highlights
Factory orders rose nearly as expected in June, up 1.8 percent for only the second gain in the last 11 months. The durable goods component, initially released last week, is unrevised at plus 3.4 percent in a gain distorted by aircraft orders but one that does reflect a pop higher for capital goods. The non-durables component, data released with today’s report, rose 0.4 percent on order gains for oil and chemicals.

Orders for civilian aircraft jumped 65 percent in the month following, in routine up-and-down fashion for this component, a 32 percent downswing in May. Industries reporting respectable gains include 0.5 percent for furniture and 0.6 percent for motor vehicles as well as a 1.5 percent gain for machinery. Orders for energy equipment bounced back 5.5 percent after sinking 25 percent in May. Year-on-year, energy equipment is down 51 percent.

Looking at totals again, shipments rose a very solid 0.5 percent with shipments of core capital goods up 0.3 percent. The latter, which is a key reading that excludes aircraft, isn’t spectacular but is still a solid gain for business investment. Unfilled orders, which have been in contraction most of the year, were unchanged in June. Inventories rose 0.6 percent in a build that falls in line with shipments, keeping the inventory-to-shipments ratio at a manageable 1.35.

Today’s report offers rare good news for a factory sector that, due to weak exports and the collapse in oil & gas equipment, has been struggling to stay above water for the last year.

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Minor index but another indicator of a drop in ‘confidence’:

Gallup US ECI
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Highlights
July’s Economic Confidence Index averaged minus 12 in July, down from minus 8 in June and the lowest monthly average since October 2014. The drop is attributable chiefly to Americans’ increasing view that the economy is getting worse rather than better.

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PMC, Personal Income, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Car Sales

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Another PMC, and an estimated $45 million check to Boston’s Dana Farber for cancer research! Congrats to all the donors and participants- over 6,000 riders and thousands of volunteers handling the logistics!

Special nod to Billy and Meredith Starr for a most successful 35th PMC and total donations approaching $500 million!!!

And thanks to all of you who contributed and those who will be contributing… ;)

(Note Elizabeth’s sandals with spd clips :)
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Personal Income and Outlays

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Highlights
The consumer showed less life in June with inflation remaining very quiet. Consumer spending rose an as-expected 0.2 percent in June, down from a revised spike of 0.7 percent in May with the slowing tied in part to lower vehicle sales. Personal income, boosted by gains for rents and transfers that offset slight slowing in wages, rose slightly more than expected at 0.4 percent.

The key inflation reading in this report, the core PCE price index, rose only 0.1 percent for a very quiet 1.3 percent year-on-year rate that won’t be moving up expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. The year-on-year rate is at a 4-1/2-year low and has remained below 1.5 percent since November. The overall price index rose 0.2 percent in June with its year-on-year rate, reflecting the collapse in oil prices, at only plus 0.3 percent.

The savings rate is below 5.0 percent at 4.8 percent but remains on the high side, which points to consumer health and hints at underlying spending strength. The economy is just bumping along right now, pointing to no urgency for policy change.

Wage income down:

PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JUNE 2015

August 3 (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Wages and salaries increased $18.3 billion in June, compared with an increase of $32.0 billion in May. Private wages and salaries increased $16.0 billion in June, compared with an increase of $29.6 billion in May. Government wages and salaries increased $2.3 billion, compared with an increase of $2.4 billion.

Without the big jump in reported personal dividend income personal income would have been lower:

Rental income of persons increased $7.4 billion in June, compared with an increase of $7.7 billion in May. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $20.2 billion, compared with an increase of $8.4 billion. Personal current transfer receipts increased $8.6 billion, compared with an increase of $8.9 billion.

Lower tax payments helped disposable personal income but it’s still a very low rate of growth:

Personal current taxes increased $7.5 billion in June, compared with an increase of $12.5 billion in May. Disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income less personal current taxes — increased $60.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, in June, compared with an increase of $53.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, in May.

Real DPI — DPI adjusted to remove price changes — increased 0.2 percent in June, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in May.

Like most all indicators, there’s been a falling off since oil prices broke during Q4 2014:

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source: Bureau of Economic Statistics
Disposable personal income was revised up $19.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2012; was revised down $109.5 billion, or 0.9 percent, for 2013; and was revised down $76.1 billion, or 0.6 percent, for 2014.

Personal outlays was revised down $30.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 2012; was revised down $91.4 billion, or 0.8 percent, for 2013; and was revised down $63.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 2014. Revisions to personal outlays primarily reflected downward revisions to PCE.

Exports again, and now employment showing weakness in the latest reports:

ISM Mfg Index

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Highlights
Weak employment and continued contraction in exports held down the manufacturing index which slipped 0.8 tenths in July to a lower-than-expected 52.7 to indicate slowing monthly activity for ISM’s sample. Employment growth slowed nearly 3 points to 52.7 while new export orders fell 1.5 points to 48.0 for the 5th sub-50 contractionary reading of the last 7 months.

But there are signs of strength in the report led by new orders which rose 1/2 point to 56.5 which is the strongest reading of the year for this most important of all readings. The gain contrasts with the drop in export orders and points to strength in the domestic economy. Production is also strong at 56.0.

But another negative in the report is sharp contraction in backlogs, down 4.5 points to 42.5 to signal the sharpest draw in nearly 3 years. This drop helps explain the slowing in employment but is offset in the longer term outlook by the rise in new orders.

This report is mixed with export orders pointing to continuing headwinds for the manufacturing sector though total new orders are a plus. Note that this report was posted before its usually scheduled 10:00 a.m. ET release time.

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Construction up nicely vs last year this time, but not so much vs earlier this year, and some of it is the NY thing regarding getting started ahead of expiring credits as previously discussed, which look to have been followed by a sharp fall off:

Construction Spending

source: Econoday.com
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Highlights
Held back by a slight and unexpected decline in single-family homes, construction spending inched only 0.1 percent higher in June. Spending on new single-family homes slipped 0.3 percent in June following gains of 0.5 percent and 1.0 percent in the prior two months. Showing much greater strength are multi-family units, up 2.8 percent in June following prior gains of 1.3 and 3.4 percent. Year-on-year, single-family homes are up a very strong 12.8 percent while multi-family is up 23.7 percent.

The biggest drag to June comes from the private non-residential category which fell 1.3 percent reflecting sweeping monthly declines for offices, commercial structures, factories along with power and transportation spending. On the plus side were construction for highways and education.

Housing permit data point to strength ahead for single-family construction spending along with continued standout strength for the multi-family category. But the decline on the non-residential side does underscore weakness right now in business investment. But taken together, total spending is still up a very constructive 12.0 percent year-on-year and the second-half outlook is still positive.

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Not adjusted for inflation:

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Motor vehicle sales looking up, estimated at a 17.5 million annual rate, almost as high as May and split between domestic and imports isn’t out yet. Domestically produced car sales have been down year over year:

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Redbook Retail Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, PMI Services, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, Oil Capex, Truck Tonnage

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Still bad:

source: Econoday.com
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Softening:

source: Econoday.com
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I don’t put much weight on Markit surveys, but the optimism comment is interesting:


source: Econoday.com
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Highlights

Service sector growth is strengthening slightly this month based on Markit’s July flash index which is up 4 tenths to a very solid 55.2. New orders are at a 3-month high and are getting a boost from both consumer spending and from business customers, the latter a welcome signal of strength for business investment. Backlogs are up and so is hiring. But optimism in the 12-month outlook, perhaps shaken by the outlook for the global economy, is the softest it’s been in three years. Input prices continue to rise but final prices are flat. This report is mostly upbeat and, despite the easing in the outlook, points to solid contribution from the service sector.

This kind of drop is concerning, and I’ve been watching for employment, a lagging indicator, to take a dive:

source: Econoday.com
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Highlights

Consumer confidence has weakened substantially this month, to 90.9 which is more than 6 points below Econoday’s low estimate. Weakness is centered in the expectations component which is down nearly 13 points to 79.9 and reflects sudden pessimism in the jobs outlook where an unusually large percentage, at 20 percent even, see fewer jobs opening up six months from now.

Less severe is weakness in the present situation component which is down nearly 3 points to 107.4. Here, slightly more, at 26.7 percent, say jobs are hard to get but this is still low for this reading.

A striking negative in the report is a drop in buying plans for autos which confirms weakness elsewhere in the report. Inflation expectations are steady at 5.1 percent which is soft for this reading.

This report is citing problems in Greece and China as possible factors for the decline in expectations, but US consumers are typically insulated from international events. The decline in expectations, mirrored earlier this morning by a similar decline in the service-sector outlook, may be sending early hints of second-half slowing, slowing that could push back of course the Fed’s expected rate hike.

A bit better, but another reference to softening employment. And note the volatility of this series, with moves up often followed quickly with moves down:

source: Econoday.com
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Highlights

The Richmond Fed is reporting the best strength of any manufacturing region this month, at 13 which is above the Econoday top-end estimate. New orders are especially strong, up 7 points to 17, with backlog orders also rising, up 7 points to 10. Shipments are strong, capacity utilization is up and inventories, because of the activity, are being drawn down. Hiring, however, is slowing. Price data show slight pressure for inputs but no pressure for finished goods.

This report contrasts with much slower rates of growth in the New York and Philadelphia Fed regions and sharply contrasts with recent data from the Dallas and Kansas City Feds where manufacturing, due to the energy sector, is in deep contraction. But today’s result is a welcome positive, suggesting that manufacturing may yet pick up this year and a reminder of strength in yesterday’s durable goods report.

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This had been estimated at $100 billion:

source: Financial Times
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Truck Tonnage, New Car Sales Preview

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ATA Trucking Index decreased 0.5% in June

by Bill McBride on 7/27/2015 01:55:00 PM

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Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.5% in June

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.5% in June, following a revised gain of 0.8% during May. In June, the index equaled 131.1 (2000=100). The all-time high of 135.8 was reached in January 2015.

Compared with June 2014, the SA index increased 1.8%, which was above the 1.5% gain in May. Year-to-date through June, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.4%. …

With flat factory output and falling retail sales, I’m not surprised tonnage was soft in June,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “I also remain concerned over the elevated inventory-to-sales ratio for retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers, which suggests soft tonnage in the months ahead until the ratio falls.

Read more at Calculated Risk Blog

The rate of growth of new car sales continues to slow, with most of the growth coming from imports:

From Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales To Increase Nearly 3 Percent In July 2015, According To Kelley Blue Book

New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 2.6 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.47 million units in July 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com …

“As the industry settles into the summer selling season, new-car sales are expected to remain consistent with last month’s numbers, representing modest and slowing growth versus last year,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “Sales in the first half of the year totaled 8.5 million units, a year-over-year improvement of 4.4 percent and the highest first-half volume since 2005. Total sales in 2015 are projected to hit 17.1 million units overall, a 3.6 percent year-over-year increase and the highest industry total since 2001.”

Read more at Calculated Risk Blog

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Redbook Retail Sales, NY Housing Spike

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More of same- looking very weak

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Highlights

Redbook’s sample has been reporting depressed sales rates since all the way back in March, including the latest week when same-store year-on-year sales rose only 1.2 percent. The report blames a seasonal lull for the latest disappointment, citing lack of shopper interest ahead of the back-to-school season.

From Nomura:
Looks like an expiring property tax break in NY State caused the burst of activity. Excluding the northeast, looks like starts in Q2 were about the same as Q1:


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mtg purch apps, Empire survey, industrial production

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Still up from last year this time but seem stalled out at relatively low levels and Q2 not any better than Q1:

United States : MBA Mortgage Applications
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Highlights
Weekly data are often volatile and it’s hard making much of the last two weeks of purchase applications data which plunged 8.0 percent in the July 10 week after spiking 7.0 percent in the prior week. Put together, the purchase index has slipped 1.4 percent in the two weeks which is a negative signal for home purchases. The refinance index rose 4 percent in the week. Rates were little changed in the week with the average 30-year mortgage for conforming loans ($417,000 or less) unchanged at 4.23 percent.
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Not encouraging and yet another reference to weak US exports:

United States : Empire State Mfg Survey
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Highlights
The manufacturing sector isn’t picking up any steam this month based on the Empire State index which came in only just above zero, at 3.86. The new orders index, ominously, is in negative ground at minus 3.50. This is the fourth negative reading in five months for new orders which points squarely at slowing overall activity in the months ahead.

And hiring this month has slowed, to 3.19 vs June’s 8.65 in yet another soft signal. Price data show moderation for inputs at 7.45 vs 9.62. One plus in the report is a slight uptick in the 6-month outlook to 27.04 vs 25.84.

Hit by weak exports, the manufacturing sector is dragging down U.S. growth. Watch Thursday for the Philly Fed report for July which, in what may prove to be an outlier, showed surprising strength in June.
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Not good, and another reference to weak US exports:

United States : Industrial Production
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Highlights
A plus 0.3 percent rise in June industrial production looks respectable but still overstates strength. The gain follows two prior months of sizable contraction, at minus 0.2 percent and minus 0.5 percent, and reflects a jump higher for utilities and for mining. Manufacturing, and the key component for the series, is unchanged for a second straight month — truly dead in the water at a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.8 percent.

Motor vehicle production is very weak in the June report, down 3.7 percent and more than offsetting a 0.8 percent rise for hi-tech production, a 0.7 percent gain for chemicals, and a 1.4 percent jump for furniture. Retail sales of vehicles surged back in May but turned lower in June which doesn’t point to much of a rebound for vehicle production later this summer.

One sign of strength is a 2 tenths uptick in the overall capacity utilization rate to 78.4 percent. But here too, the gain reflects gains for utilities and mining and not manufacturing where capacity utilization actually fell 1 tenth to 77.2 percent.

This report offers the first conclusive data on the manufacturing sector during June while this morning’s earlier release of the Empire State report offers the first anecdotal look at July. And the verdict? A manufacturing sector that is being hurt by weakness in exports and that’s dragging down the economy’s growth.
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business inventories and sales

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Looks to me like business is likely to be cutting output to reduce inventories:

Business Inventories
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Highlights
Business inventories, up 0.3 percent, rose modestly in May in line with sales which rose 0.4 percent. The stocks-to-sales ratio held unchanged at 1.36. Components show no builds for either factory or retail, which is a plus given softness in both sectors, but a large 0.8 percent build for wholesalers where however sales were strong enough to keep the sector’s stock-to-sales ratio unchanged.

A modest inventory build isn’t a plus for the second-quarter GDP calculation but is a plus for the production and employment outlooks which benefit from lean inventories.
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Sales don’t look so good either:

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NFIB index, retail sales, Redbook retail sales

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When it was going up it made headlines.
On the way down not a word…

United States : NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
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Highlights
Small business optimism fell very sharply in June, down 4.2 points to 94.1 with 8 of 10 components falling and pointing to weakness for the second half of the year. Earnings, which were the big strength in May, fell 10 points followed by current job openings and the outlook for company expansion which both fell 5 points. The only gainer in the month was inventory plans which rose sharply. Today’s report, like the June employment report, could be a surprise signal for slowing ahead.
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On track with the general narrative that Q2 isn’t looking any better than Q1, and that we could already be in recession, depending on inventory adjustments and June trade data.

United States : Retail Sales
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Highlights
The second-quarter suddenly doesn’t look very strong as retail sales for June, showing broad weakness, came in way below expectations, at minus 0.3 percent. Motor vehicles were part of the reason, excluding which sales came in at only minus 0.1 percent. But excluding both autos and gasoline, core sales fell 0.2 percent.

The bounce back for gasoline prices has given gas station sales a lift the last couple of months, up 0.8 percent in June following May’s 3.7 percent surge. And there’s also two strong gains for the key general merchandise category which is up 0.7 percent and 1.4 percent the last two months. Electronic & appliance stores also show a solid gain, up 1.0 percent in June.

But that’s where the good news stops. Auto sales, though still at strong levels, fell 1.1 percent against an unusually strong May. Furniture sales fell 1.6 percent, apparel fell 1.5 percent, building materials fell 1.3 percent, and restaurants fell 0.2 percent.

The fall in restaurant sales doesn’t speak to the strong levels of consumer confidence that are being reported, readings that the Fed has been pointing to as a future indicator of strength for consumer spending. A look at year-on-year sales underscores the complete lack of consumer punch, at only plus 1.4 percent for total retail sales and only plus 2.7 percent for the core. This is a very disappointing report that will cut second-quarter GDP estimates and that will likely push back the outlook for the Fed’s rate hike from September to December, at least for now.

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And, coincidentally, the retail sales report’s year over year gain of 1.4% matches the Redbook report:

United States : Redbook
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Highlights
This morning’s retail sales report for June was very weak as are Redbook’s early indications for July with same-store year-on-year sales up only 1.4 percent in the July 11 week. Redbook’s sales rate, up until March, had trended in the 3 percent range. Still, Redbook sees sales picking up later this month and sees a slight gain compared to June.
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