Freight, Pensions, ECB, Germany

Truckers Cut Payrolls As Freight Demand Softens

Funding pensions reduces aggregate demand:

The Long Bull Market Has Failed to Fix Public Pensions

Long term loans to banks do nothing for the macro economy and negative interest rates are a tax:

Mario Draghi signaled that the European Central Bank expects to rely on long-term bank loans and tweaks to its negative interest-rate policy as a first defense if officials need to intensify their fight against the economic slowdown.

The comments came as the ECB president warned that euro-area growth has cooled further this year and could yet worsen. In a sign that hopes of a second-half rebound are fading, he said the weakness “will extend into the rest of the year.”

Germany’s Economy Runs on Low Wages

Earnings, New issuance, UK services, Germany, MMT comments

Expect Pre-Earnings Frowns to Turn Upside Down

(WSJ) Analysts polled by Refinitiv think earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 will be down 2% from a year earlier. The number of companies that have had negative first-quarter earnings warnings so far has outpaced those with positive preannouncements by a 2.8-to-1 ratio—well above the ratio of 1.2 to 1 registered at the same time ahead of first-quarter earnings season last year or the 1.9 to 1 ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings season. By this point in the calendar, the earnings bar tends to be low enough for companies to easily clear. Positive surprises typically outweigh negative ones by more than 3-to-1.

Sharp sell-off late last year takes its toll on equity deals

(FT) Proceeds from stock market listings in the region fell 99 per cent in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, with just $144m raised, Refinitiv data show. Including follow-on deals for companies already listed on stock markets in Europe, the number of transactions, at 81, was down by almost half. Proceeds from initial public offerings in the UK dropped a more modest 85 per cent, while US and Chinese companies’ IPO proceeds both halved compared with the first quarter of last year. In total, Refinitiv reported that 404 equity deals were launched around the world in March.

Wealth share, Vehicle sales, US retail sales, US trade, German trade, HK index, UK, US Consumer credit

The ‘labor market’ is not a ‘fair game’ as people need to work to eat, and business only needs to hire if it likes the return prospects, so real wages should be expected to remain depressed without some form of outside support, which broke down in the 80’s with globalization policies, and the share of GDP going to capital began to rise:


General weakness continues:


US imports way down, as reflected in general global weakness, and same for weak US exports. And also indicative of US weakness:

Highlights

A sharp pull back in imports, not strength in exports, led a much sharper-than-expected fall in November’s trade deficit to $49.3 billion. Imports, reflecting price declines for petroleum as well as a $4.3 billion drop in consumer goods especially cell phones, fell $7.7 billion in the month while exports also fell, down $1.3 billion and largely reflecting oil-related declines for supplies and materials.

Germany Balance of Trade

The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 13.9 billion in December 2018 from EUR 18.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. It was the smallest trade surplus since January 2016, mainly due to a sharp decline in exports.

Hong Kong Private Sector PMI

The seasonally adjusted Nikkei Hong Kong PMI inched higher to 48.2 in January 2019 from 48.0 in the previous month and marking the tenth straight month of contraction. New orders fell again, accompanied by lower sales to overseas markets, including China. At the same time, output continued to decline, while firms scaled back on purchasing activity and hiring.

Bank of England sees weakest UK outlook since 2009 on Brexit, global slowdown

The Bank of England said Britain faces its weakest economic growth in a decade this year as uncertainty over Brexit mounts and the global economy slows.

United States Consumer Credit Change

Consumer credit in the United States went up by USD 16.55 billion in December 2018, down from an upwardly revised USD 22.41 billion gain in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of a USD 17.0 billion rise. It was the lowest increase in three months. Revolving credit including credit card borrowing climbed USD 1.7 billion, compared to an upwardly revised USD 4.9 billion advance in November. Meantime, non-revolving credit including loans for education and automobiles jumped by USD 14.9 billion, after rising an upwardly revised USD 17.5 billion in the prior month.

US factory growth, China car sales, Euro Area, Germany, Fisher comment, State revenues, Las Vegas housing

The tariff thing keeps taking its toll:

China Nov car sales fall 14%, biggest drop since 2012

(Reuters) China’s automobile sales fell 13.9 percent in November from a year earlier. The drop in sales to 2.55 million vehicles, a fifth straight decline in monthly numbers. The last time sales fell by more than this was in January 2012, when business was hurt by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. The November drop comes on the heels of almost 12 percent declines in each of the past two months, putting China on track for an annual sales contraction not seen since at least 1990. Sales in the country totalled 25.4 million vehicles in the first eleven months of the year, down 1.7 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Euro Area Private Sector Activity at 49-Month Low: Markit

The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite fell to 51.3 from 52.7 in the previous month and below market expectations of 52.8, a preliminary estimate showed. The reading pointed to the weakest expansion in the private sector activity since November 2014, as both manufacturing (51.4 from 51.8) and services (51.4 from 53.4) slowed. The job creation rate dropped to a two-year low; new export orders fell for the third straight month, recording the steepest decrease since series began while new business almost stalled. The slowdown was centered in France, as disruptions to business and travel were registered from the ‘gilets jaunes’ protest. On the price front, input price inflation eased to an eight month low due to lower oil and other commodity prices and fewer supply constraints regarding demand in the region. Finally, optimism deteriorated drivn by growing concerns over global trade and economic growth, rising political uncertainty, Brexit and tighter financial conditions.

German Private Sector Growth at 4-Year Low

The IHS Markit Germany Composite PMI declined to 52.2 in December 2018 from 52.3 in the previous month and below market forecasts of 52.5. The latest reading pointed to the weakest pace of expansion in the private sector since December 2014 as service sector expansion was the second-weakest seen in over two years (PMI at 52.5 vs 53.3 in November) and manufacturing growth slowed to a near three-year low (PMI at 51.5 vs 51.8 in November). Inflows of new orders edged closer to stagnation as new export business fell for the fourth month running, with a number of manufacturers highlighting a drop in sales to China. Meanwhile, employment growth picked up from November’s six-month low and remained solid overall while backlogs of work decreased for a second straight month. On the price front, input price inflation was the lowest since September 2017. Looking ahead, business confidence regarding the year-ahead outlook for activity dropped to a four-year low.

Seems a particularly silly statement, but not uncommon:

Ex-Fed’s Richard Fisher: Rates need to go higher to create enough room to cut should the economy tank

State and local tax receipts now growing faster than expenditures is a source of drag on the economy:

Many States See Strong Revenue

(WSJ) With most states nearing the midpoint of their fiscal years, which end June 30, at least 19 of them are seeing higher-than-expected general-fund revenue, according to a report from the National Association of State Budget Officers. “Clearly, from what I’ve observed, a continued, much-improved personal-income tax situation” is feeding the states’ revenues, said John Hicks, Nasbo’s executive director. “But also, we’re seeing an improved sales tax.” The states’ personal income-tax collections grew by a median 7.9% in fiscal 2018, Mr. Hicks noted. And general-fund collections from personal-income taxes outperformed forecasts by 3.6%.

Trade, Factory orders, Vehicle sales, UK service sector, German PMI

Deficit growing despite tariffs. Could be J curve effect:

Highlights

A slight 0.1 percent decline in exports and a slight 0.2 percent gain in imports made for a sizable 1.7 percent deepening in the nation’s trade deficit in October to $55.5 billion which is just outside Econoday’s consensus range.

The deficit with China was very deep, at $43.1 billion in October vs $40.2 billion in September for a year-to-date deficit of $420.8 billion that is 23 percent deeper than this time last year. This is important data for ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China.

October’s deficit with the EU, at $17 billion, also deepened as did the deficit with Japan at $6.2 billion. The deficit with Mexico, at $7.2 billion, eased slightly while the deficit with Canada, at $1.9 billion, widened slightly. Note that country balances, unlike other data in this report, are not adjusted for calendar or seasonal effects.

Exports, in possible tariff effects, show another sizable drop in foods, feeds & beverages, to $10.3 billion vs September’s $11.0 billion. Exports of civilian aircraft were also weak, at $4.9 billion vs September’s $5.2 billion. Services exports, an area of strength for the U.S., edged higher in the month to $69.6 billion.

Foods, feeds & beverages on the import side rose slightly to $12.3 billion with imports of consumer goods, which are a special sore spot in the U.S. trade picture, rising $2.0 billion to $57.4 billion. Imports of services rose modestly to $47.0 billion.

October’s $55.5 billion headline deficit compares with a monthly average in the third-quarter of $52.8 billion and unfortunately marks a very weak opening for fourth-quarter net exports.

Tariffs taking their toll:

Highlights

Held down by downturns in the defense goods and also civilian aircraft, factory orders sank 2.1 percent in October. The split between the report’s two main components shows a modest 0.3 percent increase for nondurable goods — the new data in today’s report where the gain is tied to printing and petroleum — and a 4.3 percent drop for durable orders vs 4.4 percent in last week’s advance report for this component.

Orders for defense goods have fallen 16.4 and 16.2 percent the last two reports but follow a giant 48.8 percent surge in August that was tied to aircraft. Orders for civilian aircraft in October and September have fallen 22.2 and 19.1 percent but here too follows an outsized gain in August, of 63.7 percent.

Core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) are mostly weak in today’s report, with orders unchanged following declines of 0.6 and 0.2 percent in the prior two months. But core shipments, which are direct inputs into fourth-quarter GDP, did rise 0.3 percent for a respectable opening to fourth-quarter business investment.

Areas of strength in October include sharp order gains for fabrications, computers & electronics, and also electrical equipment. Other readings include a marginal 0.1 percent rise in factory inventories which will offset very strong October builds for retailers and wholesalers and will limit October’s contribution to GDP inventory. Both total shipments and also total unfilled orders posted soft 0.1 percent declines.

Monthly swings in aircraft can badly cloud results this report which focuses attention on the smoother reading of year-on-year change. This remains solidly positive at a 6.9 percent gain for total orders which, however, is down from 7.5 percent in September and a 4-year high of 10.3 percent in August. But a little slowing at year-end won’t dim manufacturing’s central contribution to the strength of the 2018 economy.


Still flat to down, much like housing:

Highlights

Unit vehicle sales in November came in on the high end of expectations but, at a 17.4 million annualized rate, still fell just short of October’s 17.5 million rate. The results do not point to a back-to-back monthly gain for motor vehicles which make up about 1/5 of total retail sales and which in October ended two months of declines. Yet November did come in at a very healthy rate with strength concentrated in light trucks which typically have high sticker prices and which help dollar totals of the retail sales report.

The IHS Markit Germany Composite PMI stood at 52.3 in November 2018, compared to a preliminary reading of 52.2 and October’s final 53.4. The latest reading pointed to the weakest pace of expansion in the private sector in nearly four years amid slower growth in service sector and a slight rise in manufacturing output that was the weakest for over five-and-a-half years. New orders rose the least since the start of 2015, with export orders falling for the third straight month, and job creation slowed. On the price front, output charge inflation eased to an 11-month low. Looking ahead, business confidence towards the outlook remained close to the lowest in almost four years. Composite Pmi in Germany is reported by Markit Economics.

Light vehicle sales, Trump tariffs

Blaming interest rates for a decline that started about two years ago:

U.S. Car Sales Fall as Credit Terms, Higher Payments Squeeze Buyers (WSJ)

Overall U.S. vehicle sales dropped 2.4% in February, to 1.3 million, according to Autodata Corp. J.D. Power estimates incentive spending in February—averaging $3,850 per vehicle—was down slightly from the same month in 2017. The seasonally adjusted sales pace for the market slipped to 17.1 million on an annualized basis, from 17.5 million a year earlier, according to Autodata. Average monthly payments now exceed $525 a month, according to Edmunds.com, with the online-shopping company estimating that interest rates on new-vehicle loans hit an eight-year high in February.

What best serves public purpose when this is a concern is to require defense needs be sourced domestically while the rest of the economy continues unrestricted:

“The premise for the decision, known as Section 232, was on national security grounds. The White House claimed that relying on foreign steel could threaten the U.S. defense industry.”

I wrote this a year or so ago and just modified to keep it current:

Shop to Win!

The President no doubt knows that when you go shopping, buying at the lowest price is the mark of a winner, while paying too much is the mark of a loser. Yet when it comes to buying lumber from Canada, cars from Germany, and now steel and aluminum, the President has viciously attacked and is now retaliating against other nations for not charging us enough for their products!

And while everyone knows that buying at the lowest price is a good thing, there is no serious push back from Democrats, the ‘free trade’ Republicans, the media or any of the headline mainstream analysts. There is clearly something very wrong with their underlying mainstream logic that leads to this type of costly Presidential blunder.

Yes, when we buy imports jobs are lost, just as when we replace workers with machines, including lawn mowers, vacuum cleaners, and power washers, jobs are lost. And yet somehow we’ve survived all that. We went from needing 99% of the people working to grow our food to less than 1%, and manufacturing jobs are down to only 7% of the labor force. And yet the remaining 90% of us are not all unemployed, as jobs have proliferated in the service sector, where most of those jobs are now considered to be better jobs than the lost agricultural and manufacturing jobs. Nor has a trade deficit necessarily resulted in higher unemployment or lower pay. In 1999, for example, we had record imports with unemployment under 4% and inflation under 2%, and students were getting recruited for good paying jobs well before graduation.

The answer to sustaining high levels of employment and pay is fiscal policy. If for any reason, including more imports, weak demand at home is keeping unemployment too high or wages too low, the appropriate policy response is fiscal relaxation- either a tax cut or spending increase, even if that increases the public debt- and not to tax or otherwise drive up the cost of imports. Unfortunately however, the policy that allows all of us to pay the lowest prices for imports and have good paying jobs to replace those lost because of imports has been taken entirely off the table by both Republicans and Democrats. Consequently a very good thing for America- lower prices of imports- has been turned into a very bad thing- unemployment, and all because of the fake news about the public debt that is supported by Republicans and Democrats.

The US public debt is nothing more than the dollars spent by the federal government that have not yet been used to pay taxes. Those dollars spent and not yet taxed sit in bank accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank that are called ‘reserve accounts’ and ‘securities accounts’, along with the actual cash in circulation. Treasury securities (bonds, notes, and bills) are nothing more than dollars in securities accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank, functionally the same as dollars in savings accounts or CD’s at commercial banks.

Think of it this way- when the government spends a dollar, that dollar either is used to pay taxes and is lost to the economy, or it’s not used to pay taxes and remains in the economy. Deficit spending adds to those dollars that were spent but not yet taxed, which is called the public debt. And what’s called ‘paying off the debt’ (as happens to 10’s of billions of Treasury securities every month) is just a matter of the Fed shifting dollars from securities accounts to reserve accounts- a simple debit and a credit- all on its own books. (No tax payers or grand children required…) The ‘ability to pay’ is always there- it’s just a debit and a credit to accounts on the books of the Federal Reserve Bank. The fear mongering about the US running out of money or constraints by foreigners is simply not applicable to today’s monetary system.

And if you are worried about inflation, our proposal works to lower prices for all of us, while the Presidents direct policy is to raise the prices we all pay.

And if the concern is national security, the policy response that best serves public interest is to order the defense department to require domestic sourcing of what they consider strategically important,
and let the rest of us continue to shop for the lowest possible prices.

Point is, once it’s understood that 1) the public debt is nothing more than what can be called the net money supply 2) there is no risk of default 3) there is no dependence on foreign or any other lenders 4)there is no burden being put on future generations the President will be free to make us all winners by being our shopper in chief who works to get us the lowest possible prices.

Consumer confidence, Euro zone comments

Consumer confidence (soft data) up for the month but retail sales (hard data) continue to decelerate:

No one talking about how this reduced what would have been private sector income and net financial assets by exactly that much, as the savings on interest was not spent by the governments but instead went towards deficit reduction:

Euro zone budget savings could complicate ECB rate hikes: Bundesbank

By Balazs Koranyi

Jul 24 (Reuters) — Euro zone countries have saved nearly a trillion euros ($1.17 trillion) in debt costs since the global financial crisis and governments may now try to pressure the ECB to keep borrowing costs low, the Bundesbank said on Monday. Germany saved around 240 billion euros compared with pre-crisis levels, the Bundesbank said. “If rates on average were still at their pre-crisis levels, interest expense last year alone would have increased by nearly 2 percent of the nominal gross domestic product,” the Bundesbank said. “Since 2008, savings have totaled almost 1 trillion euros or almost 9 percent of euro area GDP.”

Trumped up expectations, Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment, Redbook retail sales, Executive orders, GDP comment, Trump comments, Income and spending chart

Trumped up expectations vs ‘hard data’:

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Highlights

January was a flat month for the Chicago PMI which could manage only 50.3, virtually at the breakeven 50.0 level that indications no change from the prior month. New orders have now joined backlog orders in contraction in what is a negative combination for future production and employment. Current production eased but is still solid though employment is clearly weakening, in contraction for a 3rd straight month. One special note is pressure on input costs which are at a 2-1/2 year high. Business spirits and consumer expectations may be high, but they have yet to give the Chicago economy much of a boost. Watch for the consumer confidence report later this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET.

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Trumped up expectations starting to cool:

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Highlights

Consumer confidence held strong and steady in January, at 111.8 for only a slight decrease from December’s 15-year high of 113.3 (revised). Details are positive including a noticeable decline in those saying jobs are hard to get right now, at 21.5 percent vs December’s 22.7 percent, combined with a solid rise in those who say jobs are plentiful, at 27.4 vs 26.0 percent.

But the outlook is less upbeat with more saying there will be fewer jobs 6 months from now and fewer saying there will be more. Confidence in income prospects is also down.

And there’s red flags in the details, including a nearly 2 percentage point drop in buying plans for autos. This suggests that auto demand, after several months of very strong sales, may have understandably flattened. Home sales have been less strong than auto sales, but here too buying plans are down sharply.

Back to the lows:

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Inventories and Low Deflator Boost Low GDP Estimate

By Rick Davis

Jan 29 (Econintersect) — The BEA’s “bottom line” (their “Real Final Sales of Domestic Product”, which excludes the growing inventories) recorded a sub 1% growth rate (+0.87%), down over 2% (-2.17%) from 3Q-2016.

Real annualized household disposable income was reported to have grown by $177 quarter-to-quarter, to an annualized $39,405 (in 2009 dollars). The household savings rate decreased by -0.2% to 5.6%.

For the fourth quarter the BEA assumed an effective annualized deflator of 2.12%. During the same quarter (October 2016 through December 2016) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was 3.41%. Under estimating inflation results in correspondingly over optimistic growth rates, and if the BEA’s “nominal” data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline growth number would have been much lower, at a +0.62% annualized growth rate.

Trump gives an inaccurate explanation of how pipelines are built and shipped

By Tom DiChristopher

Jan 30 (CNBC) — President Donald Trump on Monday gave an inaccurate explanation of how foreign-made pipes are made and shipped to the United States.
The president made the comments as part of his case to convince oil and gas pipeline makers to use U.S. materials and equipment rather than imported parts.

Speaking to a group of small business leaders, Trump described a process that “hurts the pipe” — suggesting that many miles of America’s pipelines contain substandard parts which presumably would have to be replaced. But he simultaneously indicated that he is not actually familiar with how pipelines are made, using a variation of “I imagine” three times and saying “I assume” as he explained the process.

“These are big pipes. Now, the only way I can imagine they [ship them] is they must have to cut them. Because they’re so big, I can’t imagine — they take up so much room — I can’t imagine you could put that much pipe on ships. It’s not enough. It’s not long enough,” he said.

So I assume they have to fabricate and cut, which hurts the pipe, by the way,” he said.

A spokesperson for the Association of Oil Pipe Lines said he had never heard of foreign pipe makers cutting segments into portions to send them overseas. Manufacturers create pipes in lengths that can be shipped rather than chopping up vast lengths of pipe.

TransCanada, the company behind the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, also told CNBC that pipes it buys from overseas are not cut into smaller segments before being shipped.

So it’s rule by executive orders and tweets supported by alternative facts:

How Islamophobes and “Alternative Facts” Shaped Trump’s Muslim Ban

And as previously discussed, looks like a weak dollar policy is in the works:

Obama

>Euro spikes after Trump’s trade adviser says Germany is using ‘grossly undervalued’ currency

Germany is using a “grossly undervalued” euro to gain advantage over the United States and its own European Union partners, Donald Trump’s top trade adviser told the Financial Times, echoing a sentiment he gave last week on CNBC.

Peter Navarro, the head of Trump’s new National Trade Council, told the newspaper that the euro was like an “implicit Deutsche Mark” whose low valuation gave Germany a competitive advantage over its main partners.

Navarro said that Germany was one of the main hurdles to a U.S.-EU trade deal and that talks over a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) were dead, the newspaper reported.

As previously discussed, weak income tends to drag down spending:

As previously discussed, weak income tends to drag down spending:

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Auto sales, Deficit news, Budget news, Germany news, Japan news

Looks like a weak start for 2017:

From WardsAuto: Forecast: January Forecast Calls for Low Sales, High Inventory

The U.S. automotive industry is expected to a have a slow start in the new year, with January light-vehicle sales down 4.4% from like-2016. … The resulting seasonally adjusted annual rate is 17.0 million units, well below the 18.3 million in the previous month and 17.4 million year-ago.

December inventory was 9.2% above same-month 2015, the biggest year-over-year gap since the summer of 2014. Weak sales in January will keep inventory levels high, 16.0% greater than year-ago. A 93-day supply is expected to be available at the end of the month, a major jump from 62 days in December and 77 in January 2016.
emphasis added

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/01/vehicle-sales-forecast-sales-around-17.html#tsmvSK1MApIVDcKE.99

The positive, surprise zig up last month is now forecast to zag back down into negative territory, as previously discussed:

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The federal deficit remains far to small meaning the deceleration of the growth of output and employment we’ve seen over the last two years is likely to continue. That said, looks to me like tax revenues will continue to decline over the course of the next year due to earnings and employment weakness and therefore the federal deficit will be larger than this forecast indicates:

U.S. deficit forecast to shrink in 2017 but climb over next decade (Reuters) The CBO projected the deficit to fall slightly to $559 billion in fiscal year 2017, which ends on Sept. 30, compared to $587 billion a year earlier, and it was seen lower still in 2018 at $487 billion. After that, according to the CBO, deficits are expected to grow steadily over the next decade to $1.4 trillion by fiscal 2027. The CBO forecast that $8.6 trillion will be added to the federal debt over the next 10 years. The CBO also forecast U.S. real gross domestic product growth in calendar year 2017 at 2.3 percent, slowing to 2 percent in 2018.

As previously discussed, spending cuts are contractionary/deflationary, and far more potent than the proposed tax cuts:

Conservatives Try to Shape Donald Trump’s Budget Priorities (WSJ) President Donald Trump is expected to release next month the outlines of his first budget that will then be fleshed out later in March or April. Budget experts tasked to oversee the transition at OMB have been using pieces of a budget blueprint advanced by the Heritage Foundation. Altogether, the Heritage plan offers about $97 billion in discretionary spending cuts for the current year, equal to about 8% of discretionary spending and 2% of total spending. It proposed even larger cuts to automatic spending programs, including entitlements, for a combined $10.5 trillion in savings over a decade, or around 20% of all government spending.

More euro friendly news here:

Germany raises growth forecast for 2017 exports, imports (Reuters) Germany expects both exports and imports to grow faster this year than previously forecast, a government source told Reuters on Tuesday, providing an optimistic outlook despite fears of protectionism under U.S. President Donald Trump. The source in the right-left ruling coalition said the government expected exports to grow 2.8 percent in 2017, up from a previous forecast of 2.1 percent. Imports are forecast to grow by 3.8 percent, up from a previous estimate of 3 percent.

Yen friendly news here:

Japan exports up for first time in 15 months, U.S. protectionism poses risks (Reuters) Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday that exports rose 5.4 percent year-on-year in December. It followed an annual 0.4 percent decline in November. Shipments in terms of volume also rose 8.4 percent from a year earlier. In December, the value of exports to the United States rose 1.3 percent year-on-year. Exports to China rose 12.5 percent in December to 1.3 trillion yen ($11.44 billion). The data showed Imports fell 2.6 percent in the year to December, resulting in a trade surplus of 641.4 billion yen.

Redbook retail sales, PMI Markit manufacturing, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing home sales, Trump budget director, CIA on Trump, Mnuchin on $, Euro area surveys

Still back to the lower, pre mini spike levels. Industrial production was up due to elevated utility bills, which might explain why retail sales are low:

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Highlights

Same-store sales growth continued the glacial pace of the prior week and was up just 0.3 percent year-on-year in the January 21 week, a sharp deacceleration from the 2-percent plus growth seen in the final weeks of December. Versus December, month-to-date January sales were down 3.5 percent, more than twice the decline seen in January last year. Full month year-on-year sales were up just 0.5 percent, down from 1.5 percent in the last week of December and the slowest growth for this reading since early October. The sales growth slowdown in Redbook’s sample continues to point to weakness in core retail sales for January.

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Yes, manufacturing is now muddling through at relative low levels, as weakness has spread to the service sector:

The Flash Markit Manufacturing PMI in the United States increased to 55.1 in January of 2017 from 54.3 in the previous month, beating market expectations of 54.5. It is the highest reading since March of 2015 as new work boosted output and purchasing activity while growth in new export work remained muted and employment eased.

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Housing remains depressed, now due to a jump in rates not caused by demand, but by market fears of future Fed actions:

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Sales of previously owned houses in the United States slumped 2.8 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5490 thousand in December of 2016, below market expectations of 5520 thousand. Sales of condos shrank 10.3 percent to 610 thousand and those of single family homes fell 1.8 percent to 4880 thousand. The average price declined 0.9 percent, the months’ worth of supply went down to 3.6 from 3.9 and the supply of houses on the market decreased to 1.65 million, the lowest since 1999. The November figure was revised up to 5650 thousand from 5610 thousand.

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A bit of a rush to buy before rates went up, then back down:

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Here we go. Net spending cuts or even ‘neutrality’ are likely to be contractionary, as spending generally has a much higher multiple than tax cutting.
And growth has already been decelerating continuously for over two years:

Trump Budget Director Says National Debt Needs Quick Action

By Jennifer Jacobs and Erik Wasson

(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s pick for budget director Mick Mulvaney said the nearly $20 trillion national debt is the equivalent of an ordinary American family owing more than a quarter of a million dollars on their credit cards, a problem that needs to be “addressed sooner rather than later.”
“Families know what that would mean for them,” Mulvaney will say Tuesday in Washington when he faces a pair of Senate committees over his nomination as director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to his prepared testimony. “It is time for government to learn the same lesson.”
A Republican congressman from South Carolina, Mulvaney was part of the wave of fiscal-conservative Tea Party members elected in 2010 and has been one of the most pugilistic advocates for cutting government spending. He is one of eight Trump nominees that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has placed in “the most troubling” column. More than 50 groups have sent letters to Capitol Hill urging members of Congress to reject Mulvaney’s nomination, arguing he’s too extreme.
Mulvaney has voted against debt ceiling increases and criticized House Speaker Paul Ryan’s budgets for spending too much. If he’s installed in the post — and given the leeway to negotiate his way — the next debt-limit debate could include a fight over whether future spending should be cut to offset money spent in decades past. The debt limit returns in March, so those discussions aren’t far away.
He will appear before the Budget Committee in the morning and the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee in the afternoon.

Earned Honestly

“I believe, as a matter of principle, that the debt is a problem that must be addressed sooner, rather than later,”
Mulvaney said in the remarks provided in advance of the hearings. “Part of fixing that problem also means taking a hard look at government waste…and then ending it. American taxpayers deserve a government that is efficient, effective, and accountable. American families earn their money honestly; they expect the government to spend it honestly. We owe them that much.”
Still, Mulvaney said he appreciates the safety net that Social Security and Medicare provide, and would like them to be there for his three children, who are triplets.
Mulvaney is a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, hardline Republicans who have opposed compromising with Democrats just to keep the government operating during budget disputes. He helped lead the 2013 effort that resulted in a government shutdown over Obamacare funding.
“I will be loyal to the facts, and to the American people whom I serve,” he said in the prepared remarks.

At Odds

Mulvaney’s long-held position that new spending must be offset with equal cuts elsewhere could put him at odds with the president when it comes time to make good on Trump’s campaign promise to invest $1 trillion in roads, bridges and other infrastructure. He was on the losing side of a push to ensure spending on Hurricane Sandy relief was matched with reductions in other parts of the government.
Mulvaney has voted for unsuccessful proposals that sought to cut spending deeply enough to bring the federal budget into balance within a five-year window. Those proposals by the Republican Study Committee, a faction of fiscal conservatives, included raising the Social Security full-benefits age to 70 and changing the measure of inflation to reduce the retirement program’s payouts.
On the campaign trail, Trump promised he wouldn’t cut Social Security.
The most recent version of the group’s budget proposal would have given an extra $38 billion to the military while reducing domestic spending by $100 billion, in part by eliminating the National Endowment for the Arts and the Kennedy Center and ending funding for the Washington, D.C.-area’s metro transit system.
While a majority of congressional Republicans supported using a war-funding account for regular military needs, Mulvaney worked with Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen to demand all routine Pentagon purchases stay within legal spending caps.
Mulvaney’s opposition to that cap-skirting maneuver could become another pressure point, given Trump’s promise to beef up troop levels and weaponry.
Congress is expecting the administration to send up an emergency military spending request in the next few weeks.

The CIA on how they will ‘manage’ their approach to President Trump:

CIA starts recruiting its newest asset Donald Trump

The key to Trump? “He likes to win. He has a nostalgia for a period in history when U.S. always won,” Medina said. So on climate change, for instance, rather than pointing out that there’s science behind it, or that the U.S. needs to set an example, an analyst could point out that the solar energy business is likely to be a “gazillion-dollar business and the U.S. wants to be the winner,” she said. “That’s not politicizing the intelligence, it’s talking to the consumer.”
If Trump’s style means talking to him rather than giving him a written report, that’s fine, said former Acting CIA Director John McLaughlin.

As previously discussed:

Mnuchin Says Excessively Strong Dollar May Hurt U.S. Economy (Bloomberg) U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin said an “excessively strong dollar” could have a negative short-term effect on the economy. “The strength of the dollar has historically been tied to the strength of the U.S. economy and the faith that investors have in doing business in America,” Mnuchin said in a written response to a senator’s question about the implications of a hypothetical 25 percent dollar rise. “From time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy.”

Strong euro stuff:

Private sector growth slows slightly but manufacturing remains buoyant (Markit) Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index at 54.7 (55.2 in December). Services PMI Activity Index at 53.2 (54.3 in December). Manufacturing PMI at 56.5 (55.6 in December). Manufacturing Output Index at 57.6 (57.0 in December). As was the case with activity, manufacturers outperformed service providers with regard to new order growth. New export work in the goods producing sector rose at the steepest rate since September 2016. Despite robust growth of new work, volumes of outstanding business at German private sector firms rose only fractionally.