Category Archives: Germany

U.K. Unemployment Rate Hits 9-Month Low, Defying Recession

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More hints from europe that deficits may be high enough to support a bit of GDP growth?

Euro-Region Construction Output Advanced in May, Led by Germany

By Simone Meier

July 18 (Bloomberg) — Euro-area construction output rose in May, as gains in Germany and Portugal offset declining production in Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.

Construction in the 17-nation euro area advanced 0.1 percent from April, when it dropped 3.7 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. From a year earlier, construction output declined 8.4 percent.

In Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, construction output increased 3.1 percent from April, when it fell 5.5 percent, today’s report showed. Portugal and France reported increases of 3.6 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. In Italy, output fell 1.4 percent from the previous month, when it dropped 4.3 percent. Spanish output slumped 3.3 percent after a 3 percent drop in April, and the Netherlands had a decline of 0.7 percent.

In the 27-nation EU, output rose 1.6 percent from April, when it fell 6.9 percent. Ireland and Greece are not required to provide monthly data on construction output.

U.K. Unemployment Rate Hits 9-Month Low, Defying Recession

By Scott Hamilton

July 18 (Bloomberg) — U.K. unemployment fell to a nine- month low in the quarter through May. Unemployment based on International Labour Organization methods fell to 8.1 percent of the workforce from 8.2 percent in the period through April. Jobless-benefit claims rose 6,100 in June. The number of people in work climbed 181,000 to 29.4 million with full- time work accounting for most of the increase. London gained 61,000, partly reflecting hiring for the Olympic Games that open on July 27. The claimant-count rate was 4.9 percent. Claims rose 6,900 in May instead of the 8,100 rise initially reported. June was affected by a rule change that forced more lone parents to claim Jobseeker’s Allowance.

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The economics of euro zone trade differentials and fiscal transfers

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Trade differentials have been blamed for the euro crisis, implying that that if trade had some how been balanced there wouldn’t have been the kind of liquidity crisis we’ve been witnessing.

While I do recognize the trade differentials, it remains my deduction that the source of the ongoing liquidity crisis is the absence of the ECB (the only entity not revenue constrained) in critical functions, including bank deposit insurance and member nation deficit spending. And I continue to assert that the euro zone liquidity crisis is ultimately obviated only by the ECB ‘writing the check’, as has recently indeed been the case, however reluctantly.

Trade issues within the euro zone, however, will remain a point of economic and political stress even with a full resolution of the liquidity issues, which leads to discussions of fiscal transfers.

Fiscal transfers can take two forms. One is direct payments to individuals, such as unemployment compensation. Another is the placement of enterprises in a region.

The US does both. For example, it funds unemployment compensation and also spends to directly support all federal agencies, including contracting private sector agents for goods and services to provision the federal govt and its agencies.

And here’s where mainstream economics has left out a critical understanding. In real terms, the allocation of the production of goods and services to a region is a real cost to that region.

This is because that region has to supply its labor to the production of output that is directed to the public sector for the mutual benefit of all the regions.

Note that this is not the case with the likes of unemployment compensation, where the payment is made without any ‘real output’ transmitted to the public sector.

For the euro zone, this means that if Germany, for example, located a military production facility in Greece, where Germany got the benefit of the output, in ‘real terms’ Greece would be ‘paying’ for Germany’s military.

This type of thing could work to readily ‘balance’ euro zone trade, at the real expenses of the ‘deficit’ nations.

Which is exactly what happens in the US, for example, when a military procurement expenditure is located in a region of high unemployment.

And yes, I fully appreciate the obstacles to this actually happening, including deficit myths that prevent full employment and politics that need no further discussion, so thanks in advance for not telling me about them!

But the point remains- the trade differentials in the euro zone are not in the least an insurmountable problem, at least not in theory…

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ECB to Ensure That Lenders Have Enough Liquidity, Visco Says

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More constructive hints?

ECB to Ensure That Lenders Have Enough Liquidity, Visco Says

(Bloomberg) The European Central Bank will continue to guarantee sufficient liquidity for lenders and keep up the fight against market fragmentation among the 17 countries that share the euro, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said. “The ECB can’t but continue to pursue these objectives,” Visco said today in a speech in Rome. The ECB cut rates to a record low on July 5 on concern the euro area is slipping deeper into a recession. The central bank, headed by Mario Draghi, agreed in June to help nations in distress by acting as a buying agent for sovereign bonds purchased by government-run bailout funds. The rate cut, to 0.75 percent, is an indication of the ECB’s intention to guarantee “adequate monetary conditions” in the euro area, Visco said. “It followed other measures adopted last month designed to continue to ensure necessary liquidity for the banking system and fight the effects of the fragmentation of monetary and financial markets,” he said.

German Finance Minister Asks Court Not to Block Euro Assistance

(New York Times) The German finance minister warned on Tuesday that there would be severe consequences for the euro currency union if this country’s highest court blocks Germany’s recent ratification of two measures for fighting Europe’s financial crisis.

Officials Spar Over Who Will Guarantee Bank Losses

(WSJ) German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble said that even once the euro zone’s bailout fund has been authorized to directly recapitalize struggling banks, the lenders’ host government should retain final liability for any losses. “We expect that the final liability of the state will remain” even once the banking supervisor is up and running, he told journalists. He added that what mattered was that the bank support wouldn’t add to a country’s debt—something that he said would be possible even under a scenario where the government retained liability for potential losses. Other officials insisted that banks’ host states wouldn’t have to guarantee any support from the bailout fund.

A Euro-Zone Strategy Shift

(WSJ) Finance ministers from the euro zone agreed that Spain need only reduce its deficit to 4.5% of gross domestic product next year, and 2.8% in 2014, in order to avoid financial penalties. The deal, Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos told reporters, had been clinched without fresh demands on fiscal policy from euro-zone partners, although Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker had warned that there would be a thorough examination of every bank that asks for aid. “I repeat it again, and these are fundamental points, these are two completely independent agreements, they are not related in any way because there is no macroeconomic conditionality in the agreement on the memorandum [of understanding],” he said.

Noyer Warns Hollande of France’s ‘Serious’ Economic Weakness

(Bloomberg) France’s unit cost of labor of 34.20 euros an hour compares with Germany’s 30.10 euros, Italy’s 26.80 euros and 20.60 euros for Spain. Unit labor costs in France have increased by about 20 percent relative to Germany since 2000 as French companies implemented the nation’s 35-hour work-week law, according to Coe-Rexecode. “Of all advanced countries, France has registered, since 2000, the sharpest decline in its market share in global exports,” Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said. “The drop in the number of hours worked and rigidities in working time arrangements have probably played a role” and reviving exports means tackling all sorts of restrictions that hamper activity, he said.

French current account deficit narrows in May

(AFP) The French current account deficit narrowed slightly in May, owing to a smaller shortfall in the trade of goods and a bigger surplus in services, official data showed on Monday. The Bank of France said the current account, which measures all current payments in and out of the country, showed an overall deficit of 4.1 billion euros ($5.3 billion), compared with a 4.4 billion euro shortfall in April. A breakdown of data showed that the deficit in exchanges of goods had decreased to 5.6 billion euros in May from 6.0 billion in April, while a surplus in services grew to 1.9 billion euros from 1.7 billion.

This is not good if/when implemented:

Rajoy Announces 65 Billion Euros in Budget Cuts to Fight Crisis

(Bloomberg) Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced tax increases and spending cuts totaling 65 billion euros in the next two-and-a-half years. Rajoy’s fourth austerity package in seven months will raise the sales levy to 21 percent from 18 percent; scrap a tax rebate for home buyers; scale back unemployment benefits; consolidate local governments and eliminate the year-end bonus for some public workers. The budget cuts are about double those previously announced. Spain’s central government budget deficit swelled to 3.41 percent of gross domestic product in the first five months of the year, approaching the full-year goal of 3.5 percent after the government brought forward transfers to regional administrations and the social-security system.

Spain Agrees to Guarantee Bond Issuance of Cash-Strapped Regions

(Bloomberg) Spain will guarantee bonds issued by regional governments to help them regain access to capital markets and ease a funding squeeze. The program will be “voluntary” for regions and will come with additional conditions on budget deficits, Antonio Beteta, deputy minister for public administration, told reporters. The plan will be presented at a meeting of regional budget chiefs on July 12, he said. “The mechanism aims to make issues more liquid and easier to place on the markets as they have a central-government guarantee,” Beteta said. Regions face redemptions of about 15 billion euros in the second half of the year, according to data on the Budget Ministry’s website.

Spain Says European Rescue for Banks Opens Door to ECB Funding

(Bloomberg) Spain’s FROB rescue fund will distribute bonds issued by the EFSF to the banks, which “can use them at the ECB if they need the liquidity,” Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos told reporters. As part of the agreement for Spain’s 100 billion-euro bank bailout, one or several vehicles will be created to buy assets from lenders at a “reasonable” price, de Guindos said. Those vehicles will issue bonds that will also be eligible at the ECB. Industrywide conditions for the financial assistance include a 9 percent capital requirement, de Guindos said. A first tranche of 30 billion euros is to be used as soon as the end of the month. Remaining details will be clinched in the memorandum of understanding due to be signed on July 20, he said.

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Norway intervenes to avert oil industry closure

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This was about to be seriously disruptive:

Norway intervenes to avert oil industry closure

By Mia Shanley and Dmitry Zhdannikov

July 9 (Reuters) — Norway’s government ordered on Monday a last-minute settlement in a dispute between striking oil workers and employers in a move to alleviate market fears over a full closure of its oil industry and a steep cut in Europe’s supplies.

The strike over pensions had kept crude prices on the boil with analysts expecting far quicker action by the government to stop the oil industry from locking out all offshore staff from their workplaces from midnight (2200 GMT) on Monday.

Oil markets breathed a sigh of relief on news of the intervention and crude prices dropped in early Asian trade.

Under Norwegian law, the government can force the striking workers back to duty and has done so in the past to protect the industry on which much of the country’s economy depends.

But it was slow to intervene in the latest dispute, which was in its third week, and did so on Monday only minutes before the start of the lockout, citing potential economic consequences.

“I had to make this decision to protect Norway’s vital interests. It wasn’t an easy choice, but I had to do it,” Labour Minister Hanne Bjurstroem told Reuters after meeting with the trade unions and the Norwegian oil industry association (OLF).

A full closure of output in Norway – the world’s No. 8 oil exporter – would have cut off more than 2 million barrels of oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and condensate per day.

But the minister said her main concern was the potential cut in gas supplies. Norway is the world’s second-biggest gas exporter by pipeline, with the majority of supplies going to Britain, the Netherlands France and Germany.

“This could have had serious consequences for the trust in Norway as a credible supplier,” she added.

The oil and gas industry makes up about one-fifth of Norway’s $417 billion economy.

Leif Sande, leader of the largest labour union Industri Energi, representing more than half of 7,000 offshore workers, said workers would return to work immediately.

“It’s very sad. The strike is over,” he told journalists.

The dispute has raised eyebrows in Norway, where oil and gas workers are already the world’s best paid, raking in an average $180,000 a year. Offshore workers clock 16 weeks a year but cite tough conditions for their call for early retirement at 62.

The oil industry had refused to budge.

“I am very happy that the minister chose to end a conflict that has cost Norway and the oil companies large sums,” said Gro Braekken, leader of the OLF.

The OLF said the 16-day strike came at a cost of some 3.1 billion Norwegian crowns ($509 million).

The next step is compulsory arbitration to define a new wage agreement.

“With this decision we can see that whenever the oil industry says jump, the government listens,” Hilde Marit Rysst, leader of union SAFE, told Reuters. “We will never leave this issue – it is completely unthinkable to stop fighting for those who are worn out at 62.”

She said unions would push their issues at the next suitable opportunity.

Norway is keen to retain its image as a reliable supplier of energy, but analysts have said the Labour-led coalition government was slow to intervene as it faces general elections in a year, and labour unions are important partners.

On Monday, Labour Minister Bjurstroem said she believed the lockout was not necessary and the oil industry will have to take responsibility.

About 10 percent of the 7,000 offshore workers have been on strike since June 24.

Brent crude dropped more than $1 to below $99 per barrel in early Asian trade on Tuesday on news of the intervention, after surging to above $101 on supply fears in the previous session.

The strike had choked off some 13 percent of Norway’s oil production and 4 percent of its gas output.

State-controlled Statoil, which operates the affected fields, said it would resume production immediately and would be back at full capacity by the end of the week.

The last lockout in the offshore sector occurred in 1986, shutting down production on the Norwegian continental shelf completely, and lasted for three weeks before the government intervened. In 2004, the center-conservative government stepped in to avert a lockout. ($1 = 6.0881 Norwegian crowns)

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more hints euro zone gdp may be stabilizing

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A couple of more hints deficits may be high enough for stability and even a bit of positive GDP growth:

German Industrial Production Increased More Than Forecast in May

By Jana Randow

July 6 (Bloomberg) — German industrial output rebounded more than economists forecast in May as construction buttressed Europe’s largest economy against the sovereign debt crisis.

Production rose 1.6 percent from April, when it dropped 2.1 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast an increase of 0.2 percent, the median of 36 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. Production was unchanged from a year earlier when adjusted for working days.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates to a record low yesterday as the worsening debt crisis threatens to tip the euro area, Germany’s largest export market, into recession.

While German business and investor confidence have slumped amid signs growth is slowing, record-low unemployment and demand from outside the region have helped insulate the economy. Factory orders unexpectedly rose 0.6 percent in May, the Economy Ministry said yesterday.

“German factories are still doing quite well, but we’ll see some skid marks as a result of the euro region’s debt crisis in the coming months,” said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. “In the euro area, everything points toward recession and the global economy has slowed to an extent that it can’t compensate for the weakness in Europe.”

Manufacturing output gained 1.8 percent in May, driven by a 3.8 percent jump in production of consumer goods, today’s report showed. Investment goods production rose 1.7 percent and construction activity was up 3.1 percent.

France’s Trade Deficit Narrowed in May to 5.3 Billion Euros

July 6 (Bloomberg) — France’s trade deficit narrowed 7.7 percent in May as exports rose.

The deficit in May was 5.325 billion euros ($6.6 billion) compared with 5.77 billion euros in April, the country’s customs office said in an e-mailed statement.

Exports rose 1.3 percent from the previous month to 37.44 billion euros while imports rose 0.1 percent to 42.77 billion euros.

For the first five months of the year, the deficit narrowed 10 percent from the same period a year ago to 29.4 billion euros

Airbus exported 22 planes for 1.58 billion euros during May, compared with 28 planes for 2.23 billion euros the previous month.

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EU update

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More possible hints that deficits may be large enough to support stability

A little better than expected:

Euro-Area Manufacturing Contracted for 11th Month in June

By Mark Deen

July 2 (Bloomberg) — Euro-area manufacturing output contracted for an 11th straight month in June as Europe’s debt crisis sapped demand across the continent.

A gauge of euro-region manufacturing held at 45.1 in May, London-based Markit Economics said today in a final estimate. That compares with an initial estimate of 44.8 on June 21. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

A little better than expected:

Italian May Unemployment Rate Declines for First Time in a Year

By Chiara Vasarri

July 2 (Bloomberg) — Italy’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell from a 12-year high in May, the first decline in more than a year.

The unemployment rate decreased to a seasonally-adjusted 10.1 percent, from 10.2 percent in April, Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. It was the first decline in the jobless rate since February of last year. Economists forecast an increase to 10.3 percent, the median of eight estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Joblessness among people aged 15 to 24 rose to 36.2 percent, from 35.3 percent, Istat said.

Better than expected improvement here:

U.K. CIPS Manufacturing Shrank for Second Month in June

By Jennifer Ryan

July 2 (Bloomberg) — U.K. manufacturing shrank for a second month in June as demand “remained weak,” Markit Economics said.

A gauge of factory output was at 48.6 from 45.9 in May, Markit said on its website today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists was 46.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Some ok Swiss news as well.

Also, sufficient progress at the EU level to give the ECB cover to write checks as needed to get from here to any of the prospective EU measures.

This includes taking forever to get from here to there.

They all seem to understand that the ECB is at least one answer to the solvency issue, and seem to be willing to allow the ECB to provide bank liquidity while they try to finalize an alternative solution. Indirectly that means, at least for now, the member governments will be able to make their payments for the immediate future.

So as previously discussed, they solved the solvency issue, and markets have responded, which leaves them with a bad economy to focus on.

With deficits now perhaps large enough for stability, and maybe a bit of modest GDP growth, I’d at best expect a ‘wait and see’ attitude from an EU that has found it highly problematic to act even in an emergency.

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Germany rebuffs Obama’s advice on euro crisis

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Until they all get ‘in paradigm’ the 99% don’t have a chance.

Germany rebuffs Obama’s advice on euro crisis

June 25 (AP) — Germany’s finance minister is rejecting U.S. President Barack Obama’s calls on Europe to move faster in fighting its debt crisis, telling him to get the American deficit under control instead.

Wolfgang Schaeuble told public broadcaster ZDF in an interview late Sunday that “people are always very quick at giving others advice.”
He says: “Mr. Obama should first of all take care of reducing the American deficit, which is higher than in the eurozone.”

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German, French private sector output data

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With exports sagging it’s looking to me like:
Germany is going to need more public or private sector deficit spending to support sales and employment, while the French deficit may be large enough to stabilize their economy, albeit at far too low levels of output and employment.

Steepest drop in German private sector output for three years

June 21 (Markit) — Flash Composite Output Index at 48.5 in June from 49.3 in May, Flash Services Activity Index at 50.3 from 51.8, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 44.7 from 45.2, and Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 44.9 from 44.6. Reduced business activity reflected a marked fall in manufacturing production in June. Meanwhile, service sector activity was close to stagnation during the latest survey period. The latest drop in incoming new work reflected reductions in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Manufacturers indicated a steep and accelerated downturn in new export business during June, with the pace of reduction the fastest since April 2009.

Rate of decline in French private sector output eases in June

June 21 (Markit) — Flash Composite Output Index rises to 46.7 in June from 44.6 in May, Flash Services Activity Index climbs to 47.3 from 45.1, Flash Manufacturing PMI rises to 45.3 from 44.7, and Flash Manufacturing Output Index increases to 45.2 from 43.6. Slower falls in activity were recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors during June. This mirrored similar moderations in the respective rates of decline in new business. Panellists indicated that clients remained hesitant in committing to new contracts amid an uncertain economic climate, although some respondents noted greater numbers of client enquiries and sales of new products.

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Germany signals shift on 2.3 trillion redemption fund for Europoe

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Getting there as previously discussed:

Germany signals shift on 2.3 trillion redemption fund for Europoe

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

June 13 (Telegraph) — The German government has begun opening the door to shared debts for the first time in a profound change of policy, agreeing to explore proposals for a €2.3 trillion (£1.9 trillion) stabilization fund in order to stop the eurozone’s crisis escalating out of control.

Mr Merkel rejected the Redemption Pact last November as “totally impossible”, even though it was drafted by Germany’s Council of Economic Experts or Five Wise Men and is widely-viewed as the only viable route out of the current impasse. Photo: Alamy

Officials in Berlin say privately that Chancellor Angela Merkel is willing to drop her vehement opposition to plans for a “European Redemption Pact”, a “sinking fund” that would pay down excess sovereign debt in the eurozone.

“It is conceivable so long as there is proper supervision of tax revenues,” said a source in the Chancellor’s office. The official warned that there would be no “master plan” or major break-through at the EU summit later this month.

Mr Merkel rejected the Redemption Pact last November as “totally impossible”, even though it was drafted by Germany’s Council of Economic Experts or Five Wise Men and is widely-viewed as the only viable route out of the current impasse.

Fast-moving events may have forced her hand. She is under immense pressure from the US, China, Britain, and Latin Europe to change course as the crisis engulfs Spain and Italy, threatening a global cataclysm.

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Spain wants euro zone fiscal authority

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Reads like a well conceived proposal, as, following Trichet a couple of weeks ago, more and more proposals emerge that actually make operational sense:

Spain wants euro zone fiscal authority

June 2 (Reuters) — Spain called on Saturday for a new fiscal euro zone authority which would harmonize national budgets and manage the block’s debts.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the authority was the answer to the European debt crisis and would go a long way in alleviating Spain’s woes as it would send a clear signal to investors that the single currency is an irreversible project.

It is not the first time a European leader has proposed creating such an authority but the woes and the size of Spain – a country deemed too big to fail – may now accelerate talks ahead of a EU summit on June 28-29.

The prospect of a Greek euro exit and Spain’s parlous finances have prompted EU policymakers to hurriedly consider measures such as a “banking union”.

Germany, the paymaster of the euro zone, and others insist such a move can only happen as part of a drive to much closer fiscal union and relinquishing of national sovereignty.

Overspending in the regions and troubles with a banking sector badly hit by a property crash four years ago have sent Spain’s borrowing costs to record highs and pushed the country closer to seeking an international bailout.

The risk premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year debt rather than German bonds rose to its highest since the launch of the euro – 548 basis points – on Friday.

The Spanish government, which has hiked taxes, slashed spending, cut social benefits and bailed out troubled banks, argues that there is little else it can do and the European Union should now act to ease the country’s liquidity concerns.

In private, senior Spanish officials have said this could be done by using European money to recapitalize directly ailing banks or though a direct intervention of the European Central Bank on the bond market.

They have also said the euro zone should quickly move towards a fiscal union to complete its 13-year monetary union but Rajoy went a step further by making a formal offer.

“The European Union needs to reinforce its architecture,” Rajoy said at an event in Sitges, in the north-eastern province of Catalonia. “This entails moving towards more integration, transferring more sovereignty, especially in the fiscal field.

“And this means a compromise to create a new European fiscal authority which would guide the fiscal policy in the euro zone, harmonize the fiscal policy of member states and enable a centralized control of (public) finances,” he added.

NO TABOOS

He also said the authority would be in charge of managing European debts and should be constituted by countries of the euro zone meeting strict conditions.

Earlier this week, ECB President Mario Draghi said EU leaders should break away from the incremental approach that has failed to get ahead of the euro zone debt crisis for more than two years and quickly clarify their vision for the future of the currency.

Adding to growing pressure for dramatic policy action at this month EU leaders’ summit, he warned that the Central Bank could not fill the policy vacuum.

The set-up of the new authority would require a change in the European Union treaties, a usually lengthy and politically painful process which requires ratification in the 27-member states of the bloc.

Germany has said further integration in Europe was required, including additional controls on national public finances, and was ready to consider revising the treaties if needed.

German chancellor Angela Merkel said there should be no taboos when discussing these questions.

A day after Berlin supported giving Spain an extra year to cut its deficit down to the 3 percent of GDP threshold, Merkel said it should be possible for countries that violate fiscal rules to be sued in the European Court of Justice.

BANKING UNION

Merkel also praised higher German wage deals and signaled flexibility on a financial transaction tax, in a sign she is open to new measures to boost growth in Europe.

The comments, at a conference of her Christian Democrats (CDU) in Berlin, show that she is ready to heed calls for Germany to do more for growth but wants other euro states to accept giving up sovereignty over their budgets in exchange.

“You can’t ask for euro bonds, but then not be prepared to take the next step towards closer integration,” she said. “We won’t be able to create a successful currency together this way.”

With the debt crisis now centered on Spain’s teetering banking sector, talks are also under way on creating a banking union in the euro zone based on a centralized supervision, a European deposit scheme and a central fund that would cope with failed lenders.

Germany’s finance ministry said on Friday it was willing to consider this option in a mid-term perspective.

Rajoy backed the idea on Saturday. He also said that the government would explain before the end of June how it will recapitalize Spain’s troubled banking sector, which is currently being reviewed by independent auditors.

Spain has picked the “Big Four” accounting firms KPMG, PwC, Deloitte and Ernst & Young to carry a full, individual audit of its ailing banks, a source with knowledge of the decision told Reuters on Saturday.

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