Category Archives: Daily

2008-07-03 US Economic Releases

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)

Survey -60K
Actual -62K
Prior -49K
Revised -62K

Looking soft but not collapsing.

With productivity increases, GDP can remain positive with flat to down job creation.

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Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Survey 5.4%
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Working its way higher, but this is a lagging indicator.

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jun)

Survey -30K
Actual -33K
Prior -26K
Revised -22K

Slowly working its way lower in a multi-year trend.

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

Apparently ‘well-anchored’.

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jun)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

Still moving lower with seemingly along with the labor weakness.

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Average Weekly Hours (Jun)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

This is falling off as well and indicates a good sized loss of labor hours.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 28)

Survey 385K
Actual 404K
Prior 384K
Revised 388K

Working its way higher but still not at recession levels, and the floods might have disorted it some.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 21)

Survey 3125K
Actual 3116K
Prior 3139K
Revised 3135K

Rate of increase seems to be slowing.

Karim writes:

-62k decline in nfp in line with expectations but details on the soft side

  • Net revisions -52k
  • Unemployment rate stays at 5.5%
  • Index of aggregate hours drops again (-0.1%); 3mth annualized rate now -0.9%. If hours fall 1%, that is the equivalent of about a 1.4mm decline in jobs from a labor income perspective: Labor income = jobs x average hourly earnings x total hours worked.
  • Total augmented unemployment rate (another measure of slack that includes those who have dropped out of labor force but indicate they would like to work) rises from 9.7% to 9.9%, a new cycle high.
  • Median duration of unemployment rises from 8.3 weeks to 10.0 weeks.
  • One piece of improvement was in diffusion index rising from 45.6 to 46.9
  • Birth-death model added 177k jobs, 29k in construction (caution that these are nsa whereas payrolls are sa)

Claims rise from 388k to 404k; 4wk avg rises from 379k to 390k.

Continuing claims fall from 3135k to 3116k; 4wk average rises from 3102k to 3110k

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jun)

Survey 51.0
Actual 48.2
Prior 51.7
Revised n/a

Seems to be back near its longer term trend line that was headed lower, and prices keep moving up alarmingly.

Karim writes:

Overall index falls from 51.7 to 48.2 in June.

Activity details also weak and prices paid higher:

  • Prices paid 77 to 84.5
  • Activity 53.6 to 49.9
  • New orders 53.6 to 48.6
  • Employment 48.7 to 43.8 (lowest in 6yr history of series)
  • Export orders 54 to 52


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2008-07-02 US Economic Releases

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Monster Employment Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 163
Prior 166
Revised 174

Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.8
Prior 333.4
Revised n/a

Up some in the new, lower range.

In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.

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MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 1269.2
Prior 1212.2
Revised n/a

Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 46.7%
Prior 45.6%
Revised n/a

Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.

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ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)

Survey -20K
Actual -79K
Prior 40K
Revised 25K

Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.

The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.

Karim writes:

ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.

NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.

I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.67%
Prior -13.97%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 234.41
Prior 235.40
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.

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Factory Orders MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.3%

Better than expected and last month revised up some.

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Factory Orders Table (May)

Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.


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2008-07-01 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1
Prior -0.6
Revised n/a

Muddling through as govt spending and fiscal rebates offer support.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9
Prior 2.8
Revised n/a

A bit better than expected and seem to be moving higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual n/a
Prior n/a
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jun)

Survey 48.5
Actual 50.2
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Better than expected, headline looks better than the detail, but holding up well above recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Jun)

Survey 87.0
Actual 91.5
Prior 87.0
Revised n/a

Breaking out. Question is whether there’s any level of inflation that will trigger a fed rate hike if GDP and financial conditions (whatever that means) stay at current levels.

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ISM TABLE (Jun)

Karim writes:

  • Not much change in headline or production/new order components.
  • Most material changes in prices paid (up 4.5; to new cycle high) and employment (down 1.8; to new cycle low).

Kohn’s speech: tolerate higher unemployment and higher inflation.

  • Based on continuing claims, conference board, and now ism, downside risk to -60k consensus for nfp on Thursday.

Weak, but not recession levels yet.

Government plus exports so far have made up for weak non-government domestic demand.

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Construction Spending MoM (May)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.1%

A bit better than expected. Down but not terrible.

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Construction Spending YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.0%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still near the lows, but a possible bottoming action.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 29)

Survey n/a
Actual -43
Prior -43
Revised n/a

Still looking pretty grim, probably mostly due to higher prices.


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2008-06-30 US Economic Releases

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jun)

Survey 48.0
Actual 49.6
Prior 49.1
Revised n/a

Better than expected.

Still on the soft side.

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Jun)

Survey 46.1
Actual 39.0
Prior 45.0
Revised n/a

Worse than expected.

GDP muddling through with the fiscal package supporting domestic demand as price pressures continue to escalate.


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2008-06-27 Daily US Economic Releases

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Personal Income (May)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.3%

Higher than expected as fiscal rebates kick in, and last month revised up some as well.

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Personal Spending (May)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Also higher than expected with consumers spending a higher % of fiscal rebates than expected.

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PCE Deflator YoY (May)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.1%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

A bit lower than expected.

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PCE Core MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Also lower than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (May)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

This is lower than expected as well.

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Karim writes:

  • Core PCE deflator up 0.1% in May, unch at 2.1% y/y.
  • Headline deflator up 0.4% and rises from 3.1% to 3.2%.
  • Personal income up 1.8% due to 25.6% rise in ‘other’ government transfer payments (tax rebates); wage and salary income up 0.3% after -0.1% read prior month
  • Personal spending up 0.4%

Yesterday Kohn mentioned there were only a few signs of higher headline inflation ’embedding’ themselves into core; this report another sign of that.

U of Michigan Confidence (Jun F)

Survey 56.7
Actual 56.4
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

Karim Writes:

  • Drop from May to June (59.8 to 56.4); 3rd lowest reading in 46yr history of survey.
  • Record low (21%) reported income gains, reflecting job losses and housing and equity wealth declines.
  • Rising food and energy prices also contributed to worst buying climate survey for durables since 1980.
  • Current conditions fell 5.7pts.
  • Expectations component fell 2pts; this now 38% off of Jan 2007 high; survey report stated that 25-35% drop in expectations was typical in advance of Post-WW 2 recessions.
  • 1yr fwd inflation expectations drop from 5.2% to 5.1% in June; 5yr fwd unch at 3.4%.



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2008-06-26 Daily US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q F)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

As expected.  Weak but no recession.

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Personal Consumption (1Q F)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

A touch better than expected with further improvement in Q2 still expected.

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GDP Price Index (1Q F)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected.

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

More than a bit worse than expected.
 
GDP better than expected, and inflation worse than expected was reflected in the Fed statement, but not in Fed action.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 21)

Survey 375K
Actual 384K
Prior 381K
Revised 384K

Unchanged from the previous week’s report that was revised up some.  Still in the new range.

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Continiuing Jobless Claims (Jun 14)

Survey 3105K
Actual 3139K
Prior 3060K
Revised 3057K

A little worse than expected, prior week revised down marginally.

Weak, but no recession yet.

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Help Wanted Index (May)

Survey 19
Actual 17
Prior 19
Revised 18

All evidence shows labor markets still soft.

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Existing Home Sales (May)

Survey 4.95M
Actual 4.99M
Prior 4.89M
Revised n/a

Continuing signs of a bottom.
 
Levels are too low given demographics and should recover substantially even with a weak market.

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Existing Home Sales MoM (May)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 2.0%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected.

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Existing Home Sales Median Price (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 208.6
Prior 201.2
Revised n/a

The upturn in prices wasn’t even reported by the mainstream press while the downturns were sensationalized.

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Existing Home Sales Median Price YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.3%
Prior -8.5%
Revised n/a

Year over year price declines are far less than the case-shiller index which reports only on the largest metro areas.  OFHEO prices declined even less year over year.  Again, the mainstream media doesn’t report this and continues to repeat case-shiller numbers.

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Existing Home Sales Inventories (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.485
Prior 4.549
Revised n/a

I thought the last spike up was suspect- might have had something to do with foreclosures hitting the list- and may now be turning down as well, following the actual numbers of new homes for sale which has been falling rapidly.

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2008-06-25 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.3
Prior -8.8%
Revised -8.7

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 333.4
Prior 360.2
Revised n/a

MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 1212.20
Prior 1378.60
Revised n/a

MBA Mortgage Application TABLE (Jun 20)

Purchase mortgage applications back at the low end of the new range, partially because mortgage bankers have lost market share, but housing remains very slow as well.

Durable Goods Orders (May)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -1.0%

About as expected. Remains on the weak side, but not at recession levels as economy continues to muddle through.

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Durables Ex Transportation (May)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 2.5%
Revised 1.9%

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New Home Sales (May)

Survey 512K
Actual 512K
Prior 526K
Revised 525K

[comments]

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New Home Sales MoM (May)

Survey -2.7%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 3.3%
Revised 4.8%

A touch better than expected from a very low base.

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New Home Sales TABLE NSA (May)

[comments]

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Actual Number of Homes for Sale (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 453.00
Prior 461.00
Revised n/a

Lower than expected and working its way down nicely.

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FOMC Rate Decision (Jun 25)

Survey 2.00%
Actual 2.00%
Prior 2.00%
Revised n/a

They don’t consider inflation a problem yet.


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2008-06-24 Daily US Economic Releases

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S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index (Apr)

Survey
Actual 169.9
Prior 172.2
Revised 172.2

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S&P/Case Shiller Composite 20 YoY (Apr)

Survey -16.0%
Actual -15.3%
Prior -14.4%
Revised -14.3%

Karim writes:

  • Conf board survey drops to 16yr low, from 58.1 to 50.4
  • Current conditions drop 9.7pts and future expectations fall 6.3pts
  • 1yr fwd inflation expex unch at 7.7
  • All following drop to new cycle lows
  • Jobs plentiful less jobs hard to get (-12.2 to -16.4; pretty good leading indicator of unemployment rate)
  • Plans to buy auto in next 6mths from 5.1 to 4.8
  • Plans to buy a home from 2.4 to 2.2
  • Plans for a domestic vacation from 33.4 to 29.6
  • Plans for foreign vacation from 8.2 to 7.5

Inflation is biting harder than the lower Fed funds rate is helping.

The Fed has to decide whether a slightly higher Fed funds rate will bring more relief/benefit to consumers on the inflation side than possible additional drag from the interest rate side.
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Consumer Confidence (Jun)

Survey 56.0
Actual 50.4
Prior 57.2
Revised 58.1

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)

Survey -5
Actual -12
Prior -5
Revised n/a

Not looking good.

Weakness and ‘inflation’ continue.
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House Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.8%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.6%

Back down, but at least not through the lows.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 22)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -44
Revised –


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2008-06-19 US Economic Releases

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 14)

Survey 375K
Actual 381K
Prior 384K
Revised 386K

Holding in the ‘new’ range, far from recession levels, not getting worse. Not bad population adjusted, and fiscal package just now kicking in.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 7)

Survey 3135K
Actual 3060K
Prior 3139K
Revised 3136K

Spike may be over with fiscal package kicking in, too early to tell.

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Philadelphia Fed Survey (Jun)

Survey -10.0
Actual -17.1
Prior -15.6
Revised n/a

Worse than expected, still looks to be moving off the bottom, weakness and higher prices continues.

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Leading Indicators MoM (May)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Slightly positive. In line with modestly growing gdp forecasts.

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Leading Indicators YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.8%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a


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Bloomberg: U.K. government worker union ‘prepares for battle’ on wages

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Here’s how relative value stories ultimately change to inflation stories:

U.K. Government Worker Union ‘Prepares for Battle’ on Wages

By Mark Deen

(Bloomberg) Britain’s largest union for government employees urged members to “prepare for battle” and be ready to strike, stepping up pressure on Prime Minister Gordon Brown to hand out pay awards that meet the rising cost of living.

“Working people, our people, are taking a hit,” said David Prentis, general secretary of Unison, which represents 1.3 million public sector workers. “Our union will organize the most powerful campaign ever seen in support of public services.”

The comments, made in a speech and accompanied by advertisements in U.K. newspapers today, rebuff Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling’s call for wage restraint as he seeks to combat rising food and energy prices and a slowing economy.


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