2008-07-03 US Economic Releases
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Released 8:30 EST)
- Unemployment Rate (Released 8:30 EST)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
- Average Weekly Hours (Released 8:30 EST)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
- Continuing Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Released 10:00 EST)
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)
Looking soft but not collapsing.
With productivity increases, GDP can remain positive with flat to down job creation.
Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Working its way higher, but this is a lagging indicator.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jun)
Slowly working its way lower in a multi-year trend.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jun)
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jun)
Still moving lower with seemingly along with the labor weakness.
Average Weekly Hours (Jun)
This is falling off as well and indicates a good sized loss of labor hours.
Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 28)
Working its way higher but still not at recession levels, and the floods might have disorted it some.
Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 21)
Rate of increase seems to be slowing.
-62k decline in nfp in line with expectations but details on the soft side
- Net revisions -52k
- Unemployment rate stays at 5.5%
- Index of aggregate hours drops again (-0.1%); 3mth annualized rate now -0.9%. If hours fall 1%, that is the equivalent of about a 1.4mm decline in jobs from a labor income perspective: Labor income = jobs x average hourly earnings x total hours worked.
- Total augmented unemployment rate (another measure of slack that includes those who have dropped out of labor force but indicate they would like to work) rises from 9.7% to 9.9%, a new cycle high.
- Median duration of unemployment rises from 8.3 weeks to 10.0 weeks.
- One piece of improvement was in diffusion index rising from 45.6 to 46.9
- Birth-death model added 177k jobs, 29k in construction (caution that these are nsa whereas payrolls are sa)
Claims rise from 388k to 404k; 4wk avg rises from 379k to 390k.
Continuing claims fall from 3135k to 3116k; 4wk average rises from 3102k to 3110k
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jun)
Seems to be back near its longer term trend line that was headed lower, and prices keep moving up alarmingly.
Overall index falls from 51.7 to 48.2 in June.
Activity details also weak and prices paid higher:
- Prices paid 77 to 84.5
- Activity 53.6 to 49.9
- New orders 53.6 to 48.6
- Employment 48.7 to 43.8 (lowest in 6yr history of series)
- Export orders 54 to 52