Category Archives: Commodities

What happened to Q1?

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This is typical of recent announcements:

“With most of the news on 1Q growth now in, the GDP “bean count” looks even softer than it did a couple of weeks ago. The most recent disappointments have come on the export side—with trade now set to subtract significantly from growth in the quarter—and from inventories. Consequently, we are downgrading our real GDP growth estimate to 1¾% (annualized), from 2½% previously (and from 3½% not too long ago).”

So what went wrong?

Maybe, as I guessed at just prior to year end:

The effect of world austerity was underestimated, particularly in Europe and China?

The effects of income channel from QE2 (remember the Fed turning over $79 billion to the tsy that the economy would have earned if the Fed hadn’t bought/owned those securities?) were underestimated?

The effect of the year end tax adjustment was less than anticipated, as work for pay that was eliminated maybe had higher propensities to consume than the 2%, one year FICA reduction?

Rising gasoline prices slowed things down some?

Rising food price as we burn up our food supply for fuel wreak havoc world wide?

So how about Q2, which is starting about as high as Q1 did?

High food and gasoline prices continue.

Supply disruptions from the Japan.

The Fed owns more tsy secs and has thereby removed more interest income from the economy.

World austerity intensifies, now including the US.

China’s inflation fight intensifies.

And business top line growth starting to falter from modest levels?

And this time the fiscal safety nets are in jeopardy as govt’s believe they have ‘run out of money’ and need to tighten up, with Japan now the prime example, looking at tax hikes to ‘pay for’ earthquake damage.

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SAUDI ARABIA HAS CUT OIL PRODUCTION ON WEAK DEMAND

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As discussed, what they actually do is set price for their refiners and then let them buy as much as they want at that price.

They use ‘speculation’ and the like for ‘cover’ for raising and lowering their prices.

SAUDI ARABIA HAS CUT OIL PRODUCTION BACK TO APPROXIMATELY 8.5 MLN BPD ON WEAK DEMAND – SAUDI INDUSTRY SOURCES

SAUDI HAD PRODUCED UP TO 9.2 MLN BPD FOR AT LEAST PART OF MARCH ON LIBYA DISRUPTION – SAUDI INDUSTRY SOURCES

SAUDI PREPARED TO BOOST OUTPUT IF THE MARKET REQUIRES MORE CRUDE – SAUDI INDUSTRY SOURCES

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Charts that look like demand isn’t booming

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Charts that Say Demand Isn’t Doing Much of Anything

Yes, there’s modest top line growth, but not a lot of evidence anything more than that is likely to happen any time soon, especially with global post earthquake issues, US fiscal cutbacks of at least $31 billion as a ‘down payment’ next week, Japan showing no inclination to rebuild without ‘paying for it’, UK austerity kicking in for real this month, continued tightening in the euro zone, and China still fighting inflation with spending and lending cuts.

Q1 GDP now forecast with a 2 handle, and manufacturing, though sort of strong, is only about 11% of GDP and considerable slack remains.

Given the more than 2 years of positive headline GDP growth, gasoline demand, previously a pretty good coincident indicator, is looking pretty flat.

Saudi crude production has been increased to make up for lost Libyan output, and not due to an increase in world demand.

These series are doing ok, but no sign of accelerating demand. In fact the growth rates are less than they were when the output gap was a whole lot smaller in 06 and 07.

No sign of demand picking up here.

Consumer buying plans don’t look inspiring either, which makes sense with rising food and fuel prices.

With ‘normal’ credit conditions, govt deficits would be plenty high for us to be doing a lot better than this by now.

So given today’s credit conditions, seems to me govt deficits are far too small to see much progress on the demand side, and tightening fiscal at this point only makes that more so.

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The Wall of Shame (cont.)

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Today is year and in Japan,
which means the last few days could be mainly quarter end and year end maneuvers,
with a high probability of ‘buy the rumor sell the news’ types of unwinds coming up.

This would include the anticipation of another 200,000 new private sector jobs to be reported tomorrow am.
And the euro strength we’ve seen in front of the announced ECB rate hike next week.

There have been lots of promotional reasons to rush to get stocks on your books for year and/quarter end reporting,
as well as a bit of gold, silver, foods, and other commodities.

But fundamentally I see what’s going on below- a world heck bent on removing aggregate demand.

More noises from Japan on how they will pay for the rebuild, which looks to be a very modest appropriation tempered by fears of being at a fiscal tipping point.

UK austerity ratchets up April 1.

China still fighting inflation with further reduced spending and lending.

The euro zone demanding and getting austerity in return for funding, with signs in some members of austerity no longer bringing down deficits as revenues fall off from economic weakness. And no fiscal safety net if it does all go bad as markets have shown extreme reluctance to fund countercyclical deficits.

And food and fuel from monopoly pricing both eating into consumer demand and driving large segments of the world population into desperation.

Talk of Q1 US GDP down to maybe only +2%, housing still bumping along the bottom, and Q2 threatened by supply shortages due to the earthquake in Japan.

And the US debt ceiling showdown now possibly happing late next week as the deficit terrorists seal their congressional victory with the promised down payment on net spending cuts that won’t end there.

In fact, their army of support is now all but universal.

Everyone in DC and the mainstream media and economics profession agrees on the problem.

The only discussion is where the cuts should be, and who should pay more.

March 31, 2011
President Barack Obama
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20500
The Honorable John Boehner
Speaker of the House
1101 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
House Minority Leader
235 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
The Honorable Harry Reid
Senate Majority Leader
522 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
The Honorable Mitch McConnell
Senate Minority Leader
361-A Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510

Dear President Obama, Speaker Boehner, Minority Leader Pelosi, Majority Leader Reid, and Minority Leader McConnell:


As you continue to work on our current budget situation, we are writing to let you know that we join with the 64 Senators who recently wrote that comprehensive deficit reduction measures are imperative, and to urge you to work together in support of a broad approach to solving the nation’s fiscal problems. As they said in their letter to President Obama:

“As you know, a bipartisan group of Senators has been working to craft a comprehensive deficit reduction package based upon the recommendations of the Fiscal Commission. While we may not agree with every aspect of the Commission’s recommendations, we believe that its work represents an important foundation to achieve meaningful progress on our debt. The Commission’s work also underscored the scope and breadth of our nation’s long-term fiscal challenges.

Beyond FY2011 funding decisions, we urge you to engage in a broader discussion about a comprehensive deficit reduction package. Specifically, we hope that the discussion will include discretionary spending cuts, entitlement changes and tax reform.

By approaching these negotiations comprehensively, with a strong signal of support from you, we believe that we can achieve consensus on these important fiscal issues. This would send a powerful message to Americans that Washington can work together to tackle this critical issue. Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

We agree with this letter and hope that you will work together to agree on a comprehensive, multi-year debt stabilization package.

Sincerely,
The Honorable Roger C. Altman
Former Assistant Secretary of the U.S.
Department of the Treasury; Founder
and Chairman, Evercore Partners

Barry Anderson
Former Acting Director, Congressional
Budget Office

Joseph Antos
Wilson H. Taylor Scholar in Health Care
and Retirement Policy, American
Enterprise Institute

The Honorable Martin Baily
Former Chairman, Council of Economic
Advisers

Robert Bixby
Executive Director, Concord Coalition

Charles Blahous
Research Fellow, Hoover Institute

Erskine Bowles
Former Co-Chair, National Commission
on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

The Honorable Charles Bowsher
Former Comptroller General of the
United States

The Honorable John E. Chapoton
Former Assistant Secretary for Tax
Policy, U.S. Department of the Treasury

David Cote
Former Member, National Commission
on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform;
Chairman and CEO, Honeywell
International

Pete Davis
President, Davis Capital Investment
Ideas

John Endean
President, American Business
Conference

The Honorable Vic Fazio
Former Member of Congress

The Honorable Martin Feldstein
Former Chairman, Council of Economic
Advisers

The Honorable William Frenzel
Former Ranking Member, House
Budget Committee; Co-Chair,
Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget

Ann Fudge
Former Member, National Commission
on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform;
Former CEO, Young & Rubicam Brands

William G. Gale
Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution William A. Galston
Senior Fellow and Ezra K. Zilkha Chair,
Brookings Institution

The Honorable Bill Gradison
Former Ranking Member, House
Budget Committee

The Honorable Judd Gregg
Former Chairman, Senate Budget
Committee

Ron Haskins
Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Kevin Hassett
Senior Fellow and Director of Economic
Policy Studies, American Enterprise
Institute

G. William Hoagland
Former Staff Director, Senate Budget
Committee

The Honorable Glenn Hubbard
Former Chairman, Council of Economic
Advisers; Dean, Columbia Business
School

David B. Kendall
Senior Fellow for Health and Fiscal
Policy, Third Way

The Honorable Bob Kerrey
Former Member of Congress

Donald F. Kettl
Dean, School of Public Policy,
University of Maryland

The Honorable Charles E.M. Kolb
President, Committee for Economic
Development

The Honorable Jim Kolbe
Former Member of Congress

Lawrence B. Lindsey
President and CEO, The Lindsey Group;
Former Director, National Economic
Council

Maya MacGuineas
President, Committee for a Responsible
Federal Budget

The Honorable N. Gregory Mankiw
Former Chairman, Council of Economic
Advisers

The Honorable Donald Marron
Director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy
Center; Former Acting Director,
Congressional Budget Office

William Marshall
President, Progressive Policy Institute

The Honorable James T. McIntyre, Jr.
Former Director, Office of Management
and Budget

Olivia S. Mitchell
Economist

The Honorable William A. Niskanen
Chairman Emeritus and Distinguished
Senior Economist, Cato Institute; Former
Acting Chairman, Council of Economic
Advisers

The Honorable Jim Nussle
Former Director, Office of Management
and Budget; Former Chairman, House
Budget Committee; Co-Chair,
Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget Michael E. O’Hanlon
Senior Fellow and Sydney Stein Jr.
Chair, Brookings Institution

The Honorable Paul O’Neill
Former Secretary of the U.S.
Department of the Treasury

Marne Obernauer, Jr.
Chairman, Beverage Distributors
Company

Rudolph G. Penner
Former Director, Congressional Budget
Office

The Honorable Timothy Penny
Former Member of Congress; Co-Chair,
Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget

The Honorable Alice Rivlin
Former Director, Congressional Budget
Office; Former Director, Office of
Management and Budget; Former
Member, National Commission on
Fiscal Responsibility and Reform

The Honorable Charles Robb
Former Member of Congress

Diane Lim Rogers
Chief Economist, Concord Coalition

The Honorable Christina Romer
Former Chairwoman, Council of
Economic Advisers

The Honorable Robert E. Rubin
Former Secretary of the U.S.
Department of the Treasury

The Honorable Martin Sabo
Former Chairman, House Budget
Committee

Isabel V. Sawhill
Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution

Allen Schick
Distinguished University Professor,
University of Maryland

Sylvester J. Schieber
Former Chairman, Social Security
Advisory Board

Daniel N. Shaviro
Wayne Perry Professor of Taxation,
New York University School of Law

The Honorable George P. Shultz
Former Secretary of the U.S.
Department of the Treasury; Former
Secretary of the U.S. Department of
State; Former Secretary of the U.S.
Department of Labor

The Honorable Alan K. Simpson
Former Member of Congress; Co-Chair,
National Commission on Fiscal
Responsibility and Reform

C. Eugene Steuerle
Institute Fellow and Richard B. Fisher
Chair, Urban Institute

The Honorable Charlie Stenholm
Former Member of Congress; Co-Chair,
Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget The Honorable Phillip Swagel
Former Assistant Secretary for
Economic Policy, U.S. Department of the
Treasury

The Honorable John Tanner
Former Member of Congress

John B. Taylor
Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of
Economics, Stanford University; George
P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics,
Hoover Institution
The Honorable Laura D. Tyson
Former Chairwoman, Council of
Economic Advisers; Former Director,
National Economic Council
The Honorable George Voinovich
Former Member of Congress

The Honorable Paul Volcker
Former Chairman, Federal Reserve
System

Carol Cox Wait
Former President, Committee for a
Responsible Federal Budget

The Honorable David M. Walker
Former Comptroller General of the
United States


The Honorable Murray L.
Weidenbaum
Former Chairman, Council of Economic
Advisers

The Honorable Joseph R. Wright, Jr.
Former Director, Office of Management
and Budget
Mark Zandi
Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

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Welcome to the 7th US depression, Mr. bond market

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Looks to me like the lack of noises out of Japan means there won’t be a sufficient fiscal response to restore demand.

If anything, the talk is about how to pay for the rebuilding, with a consumption tax at the top of the list.

That means they aren’t going to inflate.
More likely they are going to further deflate.
Yes, the yen will go down by what looks like a lot, maybe even helped by the MOF, but I doubt it will be enough to inflate.

In fact, all the evidence indicates that Japan doesn’t don’t know how to inflate, nor does anyone else.

Worse, what they all think inflates, more likely actually deflates.

0 rate policies mean deficits can be that much higher without causing ‘inflation’ due to income channels and supply side effects.
There is no such thing as a debt trap springing to life.
Debt monetization is a meaningless expression with non convertible currency and floating fx.
QE mainly serves to further remove precious income from an already income starved economy.

Only excess deficit spending can directly support prices, output, and employment from the demand side, as it directly adds to incomes, spending, and net savings of financial assets.

The international fear mongering surrounding deficits and debt issues is entirely a chicken little story that’s keeping us in this depression (unemployment over 10% the way it was measured when the term was defined) that’s now taking a turn for the worse.

The euro zone is methodically weakening it’s ‘engines of growth’- its own (weaker) members being subjected to austerity measures that are reducing their deficit spending that paid for their imports from Germany. And now China, Japan, the US and others will be cutting imports as well.

UK fiscal austerity measures are accelerating on schedule.

The US is also working to tighten fiscal policy, particularly now that both sides agree that deficit reduction is in order, beaming as they make progress towards agreeing on the cuts.

The US had 6 depressions while on the gold standard, which followed the only 6 periods of budget surpluses.
And now, even with a floating fx policy and non convertible currency that allows for immediate and unlimited fiscal adjustments,
we have allowed the deflationary forces unleashed by the Clinton budget surpluses to result in this 7th depression.

We were muddling through with modest real growth and a far too high output gap and may have continued to do so all else equal.

But all else isn’t equal.

Collective, self inflicted proactive austerity has been working against growth, including China’s ‘fight against inflation.’

And now Japan’s massive disaster will be deflationary shock that, in the absence of a proactive fiscal adjustment, is highly likely to further reduce world demand.

Hopefully, the Saudis capitulate and follow the price of crude lower, easing the burden somewhat on the world’s struggling populations.
If so, watch for a strong dollar as well.

And watch for a lot more global civil unrest as no answers emerge to the mass unemployment that will likely get even worse. Not to mention food prices that may come down some, but will remain very high at the consumer level as we continue to burn up our food supply for motor fuel.

And it’s all only likely to get worse until the world figures out how its monetary system actually works.

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Comments from the Algeria Oil Minister

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DJ Algeria Oil Min:Increasingly Hard To Understand Market Dynamics

Agreed!

DJ Algeria Oil Min:Oil Markets Increasingly Respond To Financial Speculation

Agreed! The funds involved in commodity speculation dwarf the funds involved in the physical markets

DJ Algeria Oil Min:Market Volatility Makes Energy Investment Difficult

Agreed! The risk of a price collapse is a major factor for long term investment decisions.

DJ Algeria Oil Min: Seeking To Exploit Shale Fields In Algeria
DJ Algeria Oil Min: Will Seek Partnerships To Exploit Unconventional Oil, Gas
DJ Algeria Oil Min:Sonatrach, Partners To Invest $2.5B/Year On Unconventional Hydrocarbons
DJ Algeria Oil Min: Europe Will Need Long-Term Gas Contracts

Yes, long term contract work best for both producers and users to ensure the viability of investments and the stability of supply and price

DJ Algeria Oil Min: No Shortage Of Physical Oil

Agreed! Reinforces the fact that the Saudis are the swing producer/ultimate price setter as previously discussed

DJ Algeria Oil Min: OPEC Will Respond If There’s A Shortage Of Crude

Confirming excess Saudi capacity estimates

DJ Algeria Oil Min: No Requests For Extra Crude From Algeria

Confirming no supply shortages and Saudi price setting

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Libya Libya Libya

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Here’s my take.

As before, all the world actually cares about is the price of oil.

And the internal struggle will wind down with someone controlling the oil.

And whoever gets control of the oil wants the oil for only one reason- to sell it.

In a land of haves and have nots (at all levels), and no understanding of fiscal balance, it’s all about having the oil to sell.

So that means prices go back to where the Saudis want them to be.

My guess, and all anyone can do is guess, is Brent at maybe 100 which puts WTI maybe just under 90 until the glut issues are sorted out.

If this happens, seems-

The long oil long trades reverse.
Food prices back off some.
The view of the economy goes from half empty to half full.
The dollar gets a lot stronger.
Energy related stocks lose, others win.
But a stronger dollar may dampen prospects for US stocks.
Bonds move with stocks.
Attention shifts back to China, Europe, UK, and US fiscal policies, which are all in tightening mode.

And happy birthday to my brother Seth who turns 60 today! He just posted some old family pictures on facebook.

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the Mideast, the Saudis, and our markets

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First, I’ve been pretty quiet on the mideast goings ons.
I’ve been watching intently from the time Egypt made headlines,
and have yet to see anything of particular consequence to us, beyond oil prices.

I’ve yet to come up with any channel to world aggregate demand, inflation, etc. apart from oil prices.

Seems all moves in stocks and bonds have been linked directly or indirectly only to actual and potential changes in crude oil and product prices.

And the mainstream has yet to realize that ultimately the Saudis- the only producer with excess capacity, continues as price setter, at least until their excess capacity is gone.

So the price of crude oil remains set by decree, and not market forces.
And markets don’t yet seem to know that.
Credit the Saudis for outsmarting the world on that score.
They say they don’t set prices, but let the market set price, as they only set spreads to benchmark market prices they post for their refiners.
The world completely misses the simple difference between the Saudi’s reaction function as a price setter, and prices set competitively in the market place.

That’s like the Fed saying they don’t set $US interest rates, because they have a reaction function that guides them.

So what does that mean?

It means the price of crude will come down only if the Saudis want it to come down (assuming they do have excess capacity).

And my best guess is that their survival strategy includes a lower price of oil.

They will play the maestro with grand gesture and international ‘faux diplomacy’ with ‘high level’ behind the scenes goings ons with pledges to come to the rescue with promises of production increases to replace any lost output due to the crisis, making it clear that they are going the extra mile and taking extraordinary measures to ensure the western economies both won’t see any supply disruptions and prices will be contained. Making it clear that we owe them for their selfless, gargantuan, efforts and expenditures of political capital on our behalf.

It’s all a big show to ingratiate themselves to the West in the hopes of getting the western support needed to sustain their position of power.

And the west will never realize that prices went up only because the Saudis raised their posted prices under cover of their reaction function that the west mistakes for ‘market forces,’ and that prices will go down only as the Saudis simply lower their posted prices, as they continue to play us for complete fools.

Much like China does to us because we think we need to sell our Tsy secs to fund our federal spending.

And with lower crude prices we go ‘risk off’ and much of the recent moves in other markets reverse.

The other possibility is that the Saudis don’t cut price, maybe because they decide they want the increased revenues to sustain control domestically with increased distributions to their population.

One way or another, it’s all their political decision, and we don’t even understand how it works, which reduces the odds that whatever influence we might have will be used to our ultimate benefit.

Before the early 1970’s the price of oil was set by the Texas Railroad Commission, who kept it relatively low and stable, fueling growth with reasonable price stability, while govt policy fostered relatively high levels of employment and low output gaps.

Since the hand off to the Saudis in the early 1970’s, when circumstances allowed them to take over as swing producer/price setter, prices have increased dramatically with very high levels of volatility, disrupting the world order and fostering today’s very high levels of unemployment and massive output gaps, as govts struggle with fears of inflation and seemingly no understanding of the process that’s got us into that mess.

And now with the world turmoil perhaps largely a function of mass unemployment, and govts with no idea how to keep that from happening, the pendulum is shifting from order to chaos.

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Saudi Arabia in talks to boost oil output

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Right, as swing producer/monopolist that’s what they necessarily do- set price and let quantity adjust.

But if quantity demanded exceeds their ability to pump they lose control of price on the upside.

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Thu, Feb 24, 2011 at 9:43 AM, Greg wrote:
>   
>   Just like you say about the Saudi’s…..
>   

Saudi Arabia in talks to boost oil output

By David Blair, Jack Farchy and Javier Blas

February 24 (FT) — Saudi Arabia is in “active talks” with European oil companies to meet the production shortfall left by Libya, the clearest indication to date that the leader of the Opec oil cartel is about to boost supplies to stop further rises in the oil price, which surged to near $120 a barrel on Thursday.

Riyadh is asking “what quantity and what quality of oil they [the European refiners] want,” a senior Saudi oil official said on condition of anonymity.

Oil traders said the talks signalled that Saudi Arabia realised that the political crisis in Libya was now an oil supply crisis and that the kingdom needed to act quickly and decisively to stop oil prices hurting the global economic recovery.

“You can only expect the price to go up. It is fear of the unknown. The risks are all to the upside,” one senior oil trader said. “Saudi Arabia needs to respond.”

The kingdom is considering two options for increasing supplies. The first would be to boost Saudi production and send more crude through the kingdom’s East-West pipeline, which links the Gulf region with the Red Sea port of Yanbu, for shipment to Europe.

Another possibility, which is currently only being “studied”, would be a swap arrangement, whereby West African oil intended for Asian buyers is redirected to Europe, with Saudi Arabia stepping in to supply the Asian customers.

West African oil, such as Nigerian crude, is very similar to the gasoline-rich Libyan oil, traders said, noting that West Africa is geographically closer to Europe than Saudi Arabia.

“Right now, there are active talks in order to implement what is needed,” the Saudi oil official added. He stressed that the kingdom retained spare capacity of some 4m barrels a day – more than than double Libya’s entire output which totalled 1.58m b/d in January, according to the International Energy Agency.

Saudi Arabia has not yet decided whether to increase its output in response to Libya’s crisis, the official added, saying it would depend on the requirements of European oil companies.

If it proved necessary for Saudi Arabia to produce more, “then that will happen, there’s no problem at all”, he added.

Traders believe Saudi Arabia has the capacity to boost production by at least 1m b/d with just 24 hours notice, meaning that if a decision was adopted now, the oil tankers could be arriving in Europe within 10 days.

The move by the world’s largest oil producer comes as Eni of Italy, the most active foreign oil company in Libya, said on Thursday that oil production from the North African country has plunged to just a quarter of normal levels.

Increasingly panicked buying drove the price of Brent crude futures, the global pricing benchmark, up 6.7 per cent to a peak of $119.79, the highest since August 2008. Traders and investors feared that the near-total shutdown of Libya’s oil industry would leave the global oil market with little supply cushion should the political crisis spread to another major Middle Eastern oil producer.

Paolo Scaroni, Eni chief executive, on Wednesday made the most pessimistic public assessment to date of the impact of the Libyan crisis on the country’s oil output, saying the country was producing only 400,000 b/d, compared with 1.6m b/d before the violence erupted.

“The real phenomenon is there are 1.2m barrels less on the market,” Mr Scaroni told reporters in Rome, adding that the loss of Libyan production was “not a huge thing, but it is something and there is also a sense of general uncertainty in the region which can be the trigger for speculation”.

The shortfall means the world market is enduring its biggest oil crisis since hurricane Katrina in 2005 knocked out most US oil production in Gulf of Mexico.

Traders believe that Saudi Arabia has the capacity to increase production and also the oil of the right quality to meet the shortfall. The kingdom produces so-called Arab Extra Light and Arab Super Light, which through blending could be made to resemble the high-quality, light, sweet oil produced by Libya.

The Saudi move comes as oil prices reached levels that many economists believe will dramatically slow the global economy and potentially trigger a double-dip recession. Oil prices hit an all-time high of nearly $150 a barrel in mid-2008.

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