Strains rise in short-term eurozone lending

I’ve also heard that borrowers of euro are actually getting cut off which is the stuff of a hard landing scenario.

Strains rise in short-term eurozone lending

By David Oakley

September 8 (FT) — Strains in the eurozone short-term lending markets have jumped sharply this week amid worries that the sovereign debt crisis will deepen, threatening the ability of banks to fund themselves.

The main gauge of tension in the funding markets has risen to levels last seen in April 2009 – and has leapt threefold since July – as banks hoard cash and refuse to lend to each other amid worries loans will not be repaid in a deteriorating financial climate.

Strategists say the eurozone’s financial system would be close to breakdown without emergency loans from the European Central Bank, which they warn cannot last forever.

Nick Matthews, senior European economist at RBS, said: “We are at a key moment in the eurozone debt crisis. There are tensions in the financial system with still many banks having difficulties accessing the private markets for loans. These banks have to rely on the ECB as a backstop. But this is not a long-term sustainable solution.”

Don Smith, economist at Icap, the broker, said: “We have seen a step-change in worries about the banking system because of the sovereign crisis in recent weeks and days. Banks are refusing to lend to each other because of worries over counterparty risk.”

The extra premium eurozone banks have to pay to borrow over three months compared with risk-free overnight rates – considered a pure measure of credit risk – rose to 78 basis points on Tuesday. This spread between Eonia overnight rates and Euribor three-month rates fell back to 74bp on Thursday, but is still 10bp higher than the middle of last week.

In comparison, from January to June, the spread averaged around 20 to 25bp.

Another sign of strain in the eurozone markets is the sharp rise in the amount of money banks are depositing at the ECB. This rose to €169bn on Tuesday, the highest level since August 2010. It remained at elevated levels of €166bn on Wednesday. That compares with €4.98bn on June 15.

Before the financial crisis the amount of money deposited at the ECB was close to zero as banks freely lent money to other banks rather than opting for the safety of parking the cash at the central bank.

Italian banks, in particular, have struggled to access the markets in recent weeks as fears over the country’s sluggish economy and concerns over the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms have worried investors.

Consequently, Italian banks have been forced to borrow more from the ECB. The amount of money Italian banks borrowed from the ECB jumped to €85bn in August, twice the amount of June, which stood at €41bn.

The total amount of loans the ECB has lent to eurozone banks stands at €438bn, with the peripheral nations of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, which have been shut out of the private markets since the start of the year, heavily reliant on central bank funds. Greek banks, for example, have €103bn in outstanding loans from the ECB, double the amount they borrowed at the end of 2010.

Claims/Trade/ECB/Fed/swiss/euro

Seems several reasons Fed unlikely to ‘ease’ further:

GDP continues to move up sequentially since year end

Fed forecasts showing continuing modest growth

Core CPI remains firm

Employment still at least modestly growing (ex Verizon, household sector, etc)

Financial burdens ratios way down indicating the potential for a credit expansion is there.

China and much of the FOMC doesn’t seem to like QE or anything even vaguely related, including long term rate commitments.

Also, with the Swiss ‘peg’ vs the euro, as long as the Swiss remain relatively strong buying the franc, it translates into buying of euro. So this new buyer of euro offers further euro support/deflation to an already highly deflationary environment.


Karim writes:

  • Claims rise 9k to 414k; 400-425k range now holding for about 2mths; not a lot of firing, not a lot of hiring
  • Large drop in trade deficit in July, both nominal and real.
  • Exports rose 3.6% while imports fell 0.2%; supply chain coming back on stream helped industrial exports, while lower oil prices dampened imports
  • Q3 GDP still looking like 2%; forward looking survey measures mixed, with consumer surveys much weaker than business surveys.
  • ECB shifts from ‘inflation risks to upside and policy is accommodative’ to…
  • Inflation risks are ‘balanced’, ‘downside risks’ to growth forecasts (which were reduced), and while policy is still accommodative, financial conditions have tightened
  • While LTROs and SMP help with the transmission of policy, if financial conditions still tighten further, the changed forecasts and biases leave the door open for rate cuts
  • Staff forecasts for inflation were left unchanged at 2.6% for 2011 and 1.7% for 2012; Growth forecasts were cut from 1.9% to 1.6% for 2011, and 1.7% to 1.3% for 2012

Cameron Says Nothing Is Taboo as U.K. Tries to Boost Economy

How about suspending VAT?

Cameron Says Nothing Is Taboo as U.K. Tries to Boost Economy

By Eddie Buckle

Sep 4 (Bloomberg) — Prime Minister David Cameron said “nothing should be taboo” as the government considers extra measures this fall to boost Britain’s flagging economic growth.

“We haven’t gone far enough,” Cameron wrote in an article for today’s Mail on Sunday newspaper. “My order to Whitehall this autumn is to think even more boldly about what we can do to put the turbo-boosters on Britain’s economy.”

The government will if necessary tackle lobby groups “that are defending every last bit of the regulation that crushes business,” Cameron wrote. “And yes, if it means putting even more pressure on the banks so they lend more to small businesses, then we’ll do that too.”

U.K. economic growth slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter and the Bank of England cut its growth projections last month to about 1.5 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2012. Banks have warned that implementation of any proposals to be made next week by the government-appointed Independent Commission on Banking to strengthen lenders’ financial positions should be postponed because of the faltering recovery.

China Services PMI Falls To Record Low On Weak New Order Inflows

This report leaves open the hard landing possibility, as defined by GDP growth under 6%:

China Services PMI Falls To Record Low On Weak New Order Inflows

September 5 (RTTNews) — An indicator of the health of China’s service sector fell to a record low in August, on the back of weak intake of new orders, latest data from Markit Economics showed Monday.

The seasonally adjusted business activity index fell to 50.6 in August from 53.5 in July, pointing to near stagnation in service sector. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.

Slowing new business inflows drove the HSBC China Services PMI reading to the lowest level since the series began in November 2005, HSBC chief economist Hongbin Qu said. This reflects the effect of property and credit tightening measures, the economist added.

“That said, the property market is unlikely to collapse not least because of Chinese households’ low leverage ratio and the fact that credit tightening is likely approaching an end. This, plus resilient consumer spending, suggests China’s service sector is likely to see a moderation in growth, and not a meltdown,” Hongbin said.

The composite output index, that measures activity across both manufacturing and service sectors, recorded a score of 50.4, unchanged from July’s 28-month low. The reading pointed to another marginal expansion in Chinese private sector activity.

On the prices front, average cost burdens faced by service providers continued to rise markedly in August, primarily reflecting pressure from higher salary payments. Despite marked cost rises, service sector firms increased their output prices only marginally in August, as strong competitive pressures restricted their pricing power.

According to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, or CFLP, Saturday, China’s non-manufacturing sector growth eased in August, largely driven by a slowdown in railway investment. The CFLP Purchasing Managers’ Index for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 57.6 from 59.6 in July. The PMI survey for the manufacturing sector indicated the activity improved slightly in August, signaling a gradual stabilization of the domestic economic situation.

Despite a slight improvement in overall factory sector performance, exports orders declined, reflecting lackluster growth among overseas economies.

China’s economic growth cooled to 9.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter from 9.7 percent in the first quarter, according to government data.

MMT to Obama- Use This Speech!

This is the speech I would make if I were President Obama:

My fellow Americans, let me get right to the point.

I have three bold new proposals to get back all the jobs we lost, and then some.
In fact, we need at least 20 million new jobs to restore our lost prosperity and put America back on top.

First let me state that the reason private sector jobs are lost is always the same.
Jobs are lost when business sales go down.
Economists give that fancy words- they call it a lack of aggregate demand.

But it’s very simple.
A restaurant doesn’t lay anyone off when it’s full of paying customers,
no matter how much the owner might hate the government,
the paper work, and the health regulations.

A department store doesn’t lay off workers when it’s full of paying customers,
And an engineering firm doesn’t lay anyone off when it has a backlog of orders.

Restaurants and other businesses lay people off when their customers stop buying, for any reason. So the reason we lost 8 million jobs almost all at once back in 2008 wasn’t because all of a sudden all those people decided they’d rather collect unemployment than work.
The reason all those jobs were lost was because sales collapsed.
Car sales, for example, collapsed from a rate of almost 17 million cars a year to just over 9 million cars a year.
That’s a serious collapse that cost millions of jobs.

Let me repeat, and it’s very simple, when sales go down, jobs are lost,
and when sales go up, jobs go up, as business hires to service all their new customers.

So my three proposals are specifically designed to get sales up to make sure business has a good paying job for anyone willing and able to work.

That’s good for businesses and all the people who work for them.

And these proposals are bipartisan.
They are supported by Americans ranging from Tea Party supporters to the Progressive left, and everyone in between.

So listen up!

My first proposal if for a full payroll tax suspension.
That means no FICA taxes will be taken from both employees and employers.

These taxes are punishing, regressive taxes that no progressive should ever support.
And, of course, the Tea Party is against any tax.
So I expect full bipartisan support on this proposal.

Suspending these taxes adds hundreds of dollars a month to the incomes of people working for a living. This is big money, not just a few pennies as in previous measures.

These are the people doing the real work.
Allowing them to take home more of their pay supports their good efforts.
Right now take home pay is barely enough to pay for food, rent, and gasoline, with not much left over. When government stops taking FICA taxes out of their pockets, they’ll be able to get back to more normal levels of spending.

And many will be able to better make their mortgage payments and their car payments,
which, by the way, is what the banks really want- people who can make their payments.
That’s the bottom up way to fix the banks, and not the top down bailouts we’ve done in the past.

And the payroll tax holiday is also for business, which reduces costs for business, which, through competition, helps keep prices down for all of us. Which means our dollars buy more than otherwise.

So a full payroll tax holiday means more take home pay for people working for a living,
and lower costs for business to help keep prices and inflation down,
so sales can go up and we can finally create those 20 million private sector jobs we desperately need.

My second proposal is for a one time $150 billion Federal revenue distribution to the 50 state governments with no strings attached.
This will help the states to fill the financial hole created by the recession,
and stay afloat while the sales and jobs recovery spurred by the payroll tax holiday
restores their lost revenues.

Again, I expect bipartisan support.
The progressives will support this as it helps the states sustain essential services,
and the Tea Party believes money is better spent at the state level than the federal level.

My third proposal does not involve a lot of money, but it’s critical for the kind of recovery that fits our common vision of America.
My third proposal is for a federally funded $8/hr transition job for anyone willing and able to work, to help the transition from unemployment to private sector employment.

The problem is employers don’t like to hire the unemployed, and especially the long term unemployed. While at the same time, with the payroll tax holiday and the revenue distribution to the states,business is going to need to hire all the people it can get. The federally funded transition job allows the unemployed to get a transition job, and show that they are willing and able to go to work every day, which makes them good candidates for graduation to private sector employment.

Again, I expect this proposal to also get solid bipartisan support.
Progressives have always known the value of full employment,
while the Tea Party believes people should be able to work for a living, rather than collect unemployment.

Let me add here that nothing in these proposals expands the role or scope of the federal government.
The payroll tax holiday is a cut of a regressive, punishing tax,
that takes the government’s hand out of the pockets of both workers and business.

The revenue distribution to the states has no strings attached.
The federal government does nothing more than write a check.

And the transition job is designed to move the unemployed, who are in fact already in the public sector, to private sector jobs.

There is no question that these three proposals will drive the increase in sales we need to
usher in a new era of prosperity and full employment.

The remaining concern is the federal budget deficit.

Fortunately, with the bad news of the downgrade of US Treasury securities by Standard and Poors to AA+ from AAA, a very important lesson was learned.

Interest rates actually came down. And substantially.

And with that the financial and economic heavy weights from the 4 corners of the globe
made a very important point.

The markets are telling us something we should have known all along.
The US is not Greece for a very important reason that has been overlooked.
That reason is, the US federal government is the issuer of its own currency, the US dollar.
While Greece is not the issuer of the euro.

In fact, Greece, and all the other euro nations, have put themselves in the position of the US states. Like the US states, Greece and other euro nations are not the issuer of the currency that they spend. So they can run out of money and go broke, and are dependent on being able to tax and borrow to be able to spend.

But the issuer of its own currency, like the US, Japan, and the UK,
can always pay their bills.
There is no such thing as the US running out of dollars.
The US is not dependent on taxes or borrowing to be able to make all of its dollar payments.
The US federal government can not go broke like Greece.

That was the important lesson of the S&P downgrade,
and everyone has seen it up close and personal and they all now agree.
And now they all know why, with the deficit at record high levels, interest rates remain at record low levels.

Does that mean we should spend without limit and not tax at all?
Absolutely not!
Too much spending and not enough taxing will surely drive up prices and inflation.

But it does mean that right now,
with unemployment sky high and an economy on the verge of another recession,
we can immediately enact my 3 proposals to bring us back to
a strong economy with good jobs for people who want them.

And some day, if somehow there are too many jobs and it’s causing an inflation problem,
we can then take the measures needed to cool things down.

But meanwhile, as they say, to get out of hole we need to stop digging,
and instead implement my 3 proposals.

So in conclusion, let me repeat these three, simple, direct, bipartisan proposals
for a speedy recovery:

A full payroll tax holiday for employees and employers
A one time revenue distribution to the states
And an $8/hr transition job for anyone willing and able to work to facilitate
the transition from unemployment to private sector employment as the economy recovers.

Thank you.