GDP Archive

Re: exports and the $

On Jan 28, 2008 4:26 PM, Mike wrote: > bottom line if trade deficit shrinks via export strength that has to be > extremely dollar bullish-which has all sorts of implications (both of > you are saying the same thing in that respect)… sort of. it is shrinking as they are puking ...Read More

Caterpillar report – what export economies look like

Caterpillar Sees ‘Definite Threat’ of US Recession (CNBC)Caterpillar’s fourth-quarter earnings rose more than 10 percent, helped by strong sales to mining, energy and construction customers outside the United States, but the company warned it sees a recession as a “definite threat” to the U.S. economy. The Peoria, Ill. company, which is often ...Read More

2008-01-25 Balance of Risks Update

Mainstream economics would put it this way: Inflation risk to long term growth vs short term growth risks So on the inflation side: CPI year over year up to 4.1% Core CPI 2.4% year over year, 2.9% month over month (2.5% high end of Fed’s comfort zone) Headline PCE deflator 3.6% year ...Read More

2008-01-21 Update

Major themes intact: weak economy higher prices Weakness: US demand soft but supported by exports. US export strength resulting from non resident ‘desires’ to reduce the rate of accumulation of $US net financial assets. This driving force is ideologically entrenched and not likely to reverse in the next several months. In previous ...Read More

The fix is in – strong growth for 2008?

We have gone from the jobless recovery to the full employment recession. Recap of prospects for strong GDP in 2008 – details/support covered in previous posts: Government spending has been moved forward and is now kicking in. Exports accelerating, sustainable, and keeping personal income growing. Business inventories are very low. Fiscal package ...Read More

Why I expect US exports to continue to be very strong..

The desire to accumulate $US financial assets has been diminished for at least the following reasons: Treasury policy – Paulson is actively pushing both a strong yuan and threatening any other CB that buys $US with the label of ‘currency manipulator.’ CB’s had been perhaps the largest source of $US financial assets ...Read More

No recession, yet..

No Recession, yet.. Demand drop of 1% of GDP began over a year ago when home buying by subprime borrowers ceased.. And exports picked up the slack.And with housing as low as it is, further reductions, if any, will have minimal macro effects. Losses not that large so far, only about $100 ...Read More

3 mo libor down to 4.44%

3 mo libor is now for all practical purposes is ‘under control’ and down about 50 bp since the last Fed meeting. Market function risk seems to be behind us, and the talk has now shifted to weakness due to softer demand. The question is what level of demand is consistent with ...Read More

Inflation – clear and present danger?

Food, fuel, and $/import prices present a triple negative supply shock. Now gold pushing $900 as LIBOR falls, commercial paper issuance increases, and ‘market function risk’ subsides. Downside risks to GDP are still not trivial. Consumer income and desire to spend it may be problematic, and banks and other lenders may further ...Read More

The subprime mess

On Jan 5, 2008 9:40 PM, Steve Martyak wrote: > http://www.autodogmatic.com/index.php/sst/2007/02/02/subprime_credit_crunch_could_trigger_col > > > also…. > > 9/4/2006 > Cover of Business Week: How Toxic Is Your Mortgage? :. > > The option ARM is “like the neutron bomb,” says George McCarthy, a housing > economist at New York’s Ford Foundation. “It’s ...Read More