Falling default credit crisis

The jobless recovery morphed into the full employment recession characterized by falling credit defaults: Global loan defaults down in 2007 but expected to rise in 2008 (Thomson Financial) Twenty issuers defaulted on 2.9 bln usd in syndicated bank loans in 2007, down from 32 issuers and 6.3 bln usd in loans in ...Read More

2008-01-24 US Economic Releases

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 19) Survey 320K Actual 301K Prior 301K Revised 302K Back to the lows. This means Q4 GDP probably won’t be all that weak. Full employment recessions are extremely rare. Exporters must have maintained and/or increased output as well, which will show up in the Dec trade numbers not ...Read More

Fed’s pet inflation expectations indicator

If the Fed doesn’t care about this they REALLY don’t care about inflation? 5Y5Y Break-even Inflation since 2006 ♥ ...Read More

2008-01-24 China Highlights

Highlights: China growth reaches 13-year high Still importing heaps, including capital goods. China’s 11.2% Fourth-Quarter GDP Gain Props Up Global Growth as U.S. Slows China’s consumer price index rises 4.8 pct in 2007 Inflation is ripping, meaning higher prices for the rest of the world. Yuan Rises to Highest Since Link to ...Read More


Not to mention my bent is inflation and growth are, at best, very weak functions of interest rates, and they work mostly through the cost side, but that’s another story – see ‘MANDATORY READINGS‘. ECB’s Weber Says Interest Rates ‘Accommodative’, Dismisses Cut Bets by John Fraher and Andreas Scholz (Bloomberg) European Central ...Read More

Re: BTIG Earnings Recap for January 23, 2008

(an email) On Jan 23, 2008 8:51 PM, Joshua wrote: > > Economy is in dire condition?!?!?! Look at today’s earnings reports and > forecasts…anecdotal, but not so dire at all! Yes, they’ve been forecasting recession for about a year and it keeps getting put off a quarter. Now the term is ...Read More

The Fed’s next move

If I were a mainstream economist and on the FOMC (I’m not either, they are both), and world equity markets were firm going into the meeting next week with the monoline issue put to bed, I’d opt for no cut. That would be expected to rally the $, take down gold and ...Read More

Jan 23 late update

Monoline problem addressed, stocks suddenly oversold as that risk fades. Most earning look strong. Guidance may be soft but that’s at least partially a function of the expectation of a recession as per the media reporting and will get ignored as those fears continue to fade. If initial claims tomorrow are around ...Read More

Re: tell Paulson to let the MOF buy $

(an email) On Jan 23, 2008 9:26 AM, Mike wrote: > Trichet and his standard model are going to engineer a market crash in > europe it looks like… wonder if he will be FT’s man of the year next > year? and he’s playing with fire with the lack of credible ...Read More

2008-01-23 US Daily Releases

MBA Purchase Index SA (Jan 18) Survey n/a Actual 439.90 Prior 461.20 Revised n/a No recession here. Mtg apps seem to be continuing on the upward trend that started several months ago. MBA Refinancing Index SA (Jan 18) Survey n/a Actual 4178.20 Prior 3575.5 Revised n/a And the refi machine is going ...Read More