Morons and/or subversive
Cut Public Debt Levels to 50% of GDP: OECD
My review:
There are only 2 books that I know of that are ‘in paradigm’ and the other is Wray’s ‘Understanding Modern Money’ which I also highly recommend.
This new book by Bill Mitchell is also solidly ‘in paradigm’ and for those of you not all that interested in the details of unemployment per se I suggest beginning with ‘Part III’ which does an outstanding job of outlining the imperatives of non convertible currency which will serve you well in analyzing today’s markets. From monetary operations to fiscal measures, the mainstream economists and media continue to get it wrong. Bill lays down the fundamentals that can help you understand where the mainstream goes astray, and hopefully translate into you getting it right.
Regarding unemployment (aka the ‘output gap’ by today’s central bankers), it is readily acknowledge that inflation isn’t all that sensitive to changes in unemployment. In their words, “The good news is that the Phillips curve is flat. And the bad news is that the Phillips curve is flat.” The essence of what Bill proposes is that an employed labor bufferstock is a far superior price anchor than today’s labor bufferstock of unemployed. And this is one of those things that seems obvious and indeed is absolutely correct, yet entirely overlooked as a policy option.
So click and order a copy or two, jump to Part III, and then start at the beginning to get a leg up on where we are, how we got here, and what policy options are open- particularly a form of full employment that further supports output, growth, and price stability.
Then pass it around your office and send copies to your favorite members of Congress, thanks!
Order now: http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id=1188
Warren Mosler
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Publisher’s Spiel:
“This book by William Mitchell and Joan Muysken is both important and timely. It deals with the issue of the abandonment of full employment as an objective of economic policy in the OECD countries. It argues persuasively that macroeconomic policy has been restrictive over the recent, and not so recent past, and has produced substantial open and disguised unemployment. But the authors show how a job guarantee policy can enable workers, who would otherwise be unemployed, to earn a wage and not depend on welfare support. If such a policy is fully supported by appropriate fiscal and monetary programmes, it can create a full employment with price stability, and which the authors label as a
Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Buffer Employment Ratio (NAIBER). This book is essential reading for any one wishing to understand how we can return to full employment as the normal state of affairs.”
-Philip Arestis, University of Cambridge, UK
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Lehman cuts oil demand forecast
by Richard Valdmanis
(Reuters) Investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said Wednesday it slashed its forecast for 2008 world oil demand growth due to a steeper-than-expected slowdown in energy consumption in the United States and other OECD countries.
Lehman added it believes the oil market is “approaching a tipping point” with prices expected to decline to an average of $90 a barrel in the first quarter of 2009.
“We now forecast annual oil demand for 2008 at 86.3 million barrels per day, a growth of 790,000 bpd from 2007. The growth has been revised down from projections of 1.5 million bpd in December,” Lehman said in a research note titled ‘Demand Demolition’.
If true, and non-Saudi supply remains about flat, Saudi production might fall to about 9 million bpd and the price would still remain wherever the Saudis set it.
There has been some talk that the Saudis may have agreed to lower prices after the last round of meetings with US officials. Could be, but with their output running within a million or two bpd of their total capacity, it seems doubtful they would do anything to increase demand before they have the excess capacity to meet it. But there could be other factors (including the US 7th fleet and concerns about a united Iran/Iraq threatening them) that might be influencing their decision. Only time and prices will tell. Should be more clear in a week or so.
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This means Saudis/Russians will continue to be price setters for at least the next few quarters.
IEA Lifts 2008 World Oil Demand Growth Forecast
By Reuters | 14 Dec 2007 | 05:32 AM ET
World oil demand will grow more quickly than expected next year fueled by the Middle East and proving resilient to record-high prices, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.
The IEA, adviser to 27 industrialized countries, said in its monthly Oil Market Report that demand will rise by 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, up 200,000 bpd from its previous forecast.
“A lot of this demand is in the non-OECD countries, where we don’t have any downgrades in economic growth forecasts,” said Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets division.
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