Trade Archive

GDP, Trade, Personal income and outlays, Consumer sentiment, China deficit spending, 7DIF, US surveys, German business morale

Revised up but for the worst reasons possible- unsold inventories were higher. Also, consumption expenditures were a bit lower, and note the deceleration of GDP growth on the chart. And in all likelihood Q1 GDP is now being reduced by inventory liquidation substituting for production: GDP Highlights An upward revision to inventory ...Read More

Inventories, Payrolls, Trade

This is getting out of control. Sales are slowing faster than inventories are being sold. A weak print and year over year growth continues to decelerate as per the chart: Employment Situation Highlights Headline weakness masks an otherwise solid employment report for January. Nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000 vs expectations for 188,000. December ...Read More

Japan, China, Fed comment, Capex cutbacks, South Korea

This is the yen yield curve after over 20 years of a 0 rate policy, massive QE, and now negative overnight rates. Maybe now the economy will finally respond. :( (And how good can the BOJ think the economy is?) The western educated kids/monetarists who’ve taken control don’t seem to be doing ...Read More

Apartment market tightness, Euro area trade surplus, Spain

This just keeps going up, which fundamentally tends to drive up the euro which tends to continue to be subject to said upward pressure until the trade picture reverses: Euro Area Balance of Trade The Eurozone trade surplus increased to €23.6 billion in November of 2015 compared to a €20.2 billion surplus ...Read More

Jobs, Wholesale trade, China, Rail traffic

Anyone notice that the annual growth rate of employment continues the deterioration that began with the collapse in oil capex? Or that, once again, it looks like most all the new jobs were taken by people previously considered out of the labor force? And the anemic wage growth also contributes to the ...Read More

Bank of China, Port traffic, Redbook retail sales, Car sales early indication

This does nothing apart from supporting their policy rate: Port Traffic Grew at Slowest Rate Since Recession in 2015 Container traffic rose only 0.8% last year at the 30 busiest ports worldwide, the smallest increase since 2009, according to an estimate by Alphaliner By Robbie Whelan Jan 4 (WSJ) — Container traffic ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, US current account, Philly Fed

Blue chip consensus dropping quickly now, and today won’t help any: Remember a year ago when they said the oil price drop would be an unambiguous positive for the trade balance? ;) Anyway, this is weak dollar stuff, vs the euro area current account surplus, which is strong euro stuff: Current Account ...Read More

Saudi oil pricing, import and export prices, Japan Manufactures’ sentiment

Not a lot of change for January, most ‘discounts’ still at or near the wides, so price action likely to be more of same: Something the Fed takes into consideration: Import and Export Prices Highlights Cross-border price pressures remain negative with import prices down 0.4 percent in November and export prices down ...Read More

Payrolls, Trade

The growth rate continues to decelerate (see chart): NFP Highlights Payroll growth is solid and, though wages aren’t building steam, today’s employment report fully cements expectations for December liftoff. Nonfarm payrolls rose a very solid 211,000 in November which is safely above expectations for 190,000. And there’s 35,000 in upward revisions to ...Read More

Lumber Prices, Small Business Index, Import Export Prices, Redbook Retail Sales, Wholesale Trade

Along with most indicators, this one turned south as oil capex collapsed: Update: Framing Lumber Prices down Sharply Year-over-year Here is another graph on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs. The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand ...Read More