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MOSLER'S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large tax cut or spending increase cannot deal with it.

Archive for the 'Political' Category

Warsaw conference

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 30th June 2014

Posted in Deficit, GDP, Government Spending, Political | No Comments »

charts and comments GDP, durables, mtg apps, etc.

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 25th June 2014

>   
>   On Wed, Jun 25, 2014 at 8:52 AM, Sheraz wrote:
>   
>   Very weak US numbers
>   

And not one ‘nice call’ email!!!

And yesterday’s stock market action suggests a possible data leak???
:(

US 1Q GDP has been revised lower by far than expected. After having initially been reported as a 0.1% rise, then a 1% contraction, the third release shows that GDP growth is now reported as -2.9 QoQ% annualised, which leaves annual growth at just 1.5%YoY.



The consensus expectation was for a -1.8% reading. The damage was largely done through the private consumption component, which is now reported as rising just 1% versus 3.1% previously.

Also ‘smoothing’ from numbers that looked high to me in H2 and an adjustment to ACA related healthcare expenses previously booked as PCE:


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Gross private investment remained an 11.7% contraction

Maybe after a Q4 surge due to expiring tax credits?


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while government consumption was left at -0.8%. However, exports were revised down and imports revised up meaning that the contribution from net trade is to subtract 1.5% from GDP growth rather than 0.95% as previously announced.

Reversing a similar, prior blip up, as previously discussed:


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Nonetheless, reaction should be fairly muted given widespread expectations of a sharp bounceback in 2Q14 and the fact that the weather had such a damaging impact on 1Q activity. Indeed, we suspect that we could see GDP rise by more than 5% annualised in 2Q.

And if so, H1 would be +1% :(

High frequency numbers for the quarter have looked good while inventories should also make a significantly positive contribution after having been run down sharply.

After having been run up in H2. We’ll see where they go from here.

And, as previously discussed after the jump up in Q3, inventory accumulation seldom leads a boom:


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Mortgage purchase apps still dismal:

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is down about 18% from a year ago.


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And May durables not so good either:

Highlights
Durables orders were much weaker than expected for May. Durables orders fell 1.0 percent in May after rising 0.8 percent in April. Analysts forecast 0.4 percent. Excluding transportation, orders slipped 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in April. Market expectations were for 0.3 percent.

Transportation fell 3.0 percent after a 1.7 percent rise in April. The latest dip was from weakness in nondefense aircraft. Motor vehicles and defense aircraft orders rose.

Outside of transportation, gains were seen in primary metals, fabricated metals, and “other.” Declines were posted for machinery, computers & electronics, and electrical equipment.

On a positive note, there was improvement in equipment investment. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 0.7 percent in May after decreasing 1.1 percent the month before. Shipments of this series rebounded 0.4 percent after a 0.4 percent dip in April.

The good news is this series is muddling along ok:


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The latest durables report is in contrast to recently positive regional manufacturing surveys and also the sharp jump in manufacturing production worker hours of 0.8 percent for May. But durables data are very volatile and we likely need a couple of more months of data before taking a negative tone on this sector.

The next leg to fall may be employment, as the 1.2 million people who lost long term benefits at year end may have been taking menial jobs at the rate of maybe 75,000/month or more for 6 months or so, which may have front loaded the monthly jobs numbers. If so, monthly job gains may fall into the 100,000 range soon.

So in general it was down for the winter, back up some, and we’ll see what happens next.

The ‘survey’ numbers and professional forecasts look promising, however it still looks to me like we are under the macro constraint of a too low govt deficit that’s struggling to keep up with the unspent income/demand leakages, with scant evidence of help from growth in private credit expansion.

And I tend to agree with Fed Chair Yellen here, which would tend to keep rates lower/longer if she gets her way. However I don’t agree that low rates somehow support aggregate demand, so I don’t see the likelihood of any call from the Fed or other forecasters for the fiscal relaxation I’ve been proposing.

Yellen may be poised to rewrite Fed’s rule book on wages, inflation

June 25 (Reuters) — “My own expectation is that, as the labor market begins to tighten, we will see wage growth pick up some to the point where … nominal wages are rising more rapidly than inflation, so households are getting a real increase in their take home pay,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week, adding: “If we were to fail to see that, frankly, I would worry about downside risk to consumer spending.” Over the last year Fed staff changed their main model for forecasting wage and price inflation to reflect evidence that companies were adjusting prices more slowly than in prior years.

My immediate proposals remain 1) A full FICA suspension, which raises take home pay by 7.6%, and, for businesses that are competitive, lowers prices as well, restoring sales/output/employment in short order 2) A $10/hr federally funded transition job for anyone willing and able to work to promote the transition from unemployment to private sector employment 3) A permanent 0 rate policy with Tsy issuance limited to 3 mo bills. 4) Unrestricted campaign contributions, however, say, 40% of any contribution goes to the opposition…

Posted in Employment, Fed, GDP, Government Spending, Political | No Comments »

Diase Coffelt Release: Gubernatorial Candidate Announces Warren Mosler as Running Mate

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 29th April 2014

Donations appreciated! Please visit our website.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 29, 2014

CONTACT: Maggie Harrell
(340)776-7772


GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE SORAYA DIASE COFFELT ANNOUNCES WARREN MOSLER AS RUNNING MATE

St. Thomas, Virgin Islands – Today, U.S. Virgin Islands Gubernatorial candidate Soraya Diase Coffelt announced that she has selected Warren Mosler as her running mate for the position of Lieutenant Governor. Mosler, a renowned financial professional and 11 year resident of St. Croix, is also an independent and has previously run for Delegate to Congress.

Diase Coffelt made the following statement regarding her selection:

“My vision for the Virgin Islands is to develop it into the economic powerhouse of the Caribbean. In order to bring about this economic growth and prosperity, I am seeking qualified and experienced people to join me. I am proud to announce that Warren Mosler has agreed to do so as my running mate. The Office of the Lieutenant Governor is responsible for very important financial issues, including banking, insurance, corporations and trademarks, and property taxes. Mosler is well qualified to execute these duties and help me create a more prosperous future for all of us,” said Diase Coffelt.

“His 40 years of high level experience in financial markets and exemplary management of his investment fund, along with his global achievements in promoting progressive economic policies, have more than demonstrated his capabilities and qualifications for the office. Moreover, he is dedicated to the people of the Virgin Islands and is committed to working with me as a team to fight on behalf of the people, for a better Virgin Islands,” Diase Coffelt concluded.


“This is both a great honor and opportunity,” said Mosler. “Soraya Diase Coffelt has all of the professional qualifications and experience to serve as the next governor. In addition, her integrity and honesty combine to make her – by any measure – the superior candidate for Governor of the U.S. Virgin Islands.”


Candidates Diase Coffelt and Mosler will be actively campaigning on all of the islands, reaching out to voters in each community to meet as many people as possible. They will also hold a variety of public events and meetings, as well as participate in forums and debates.

Posted in Political | No Comments »

Thursday meeting with Soraya 7pm at her HQ, the Armrey Cabinets, Richmond, just west of the post office, across the street from WSTX

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 23rd April 2014

Thursday meeting with Soraya Diase Coffelt, 7pm at her HQ, the Armrey Cabinets, Jack Bishop’s shop, Richmond, just west of the post office, across the street from WSTX Christiansted

Good meeting last night at the Tamarind Reef conference center! About 35 of you turned out for a high level discussion of
the issues and challenges of moving forward.

Soraya and I will be there Thursday to meet with you all and as many of your friends as you can possibly bring with you!

I can only get the word out though this email list and Facebook, so I’m counting on all of you to each notify as many people as possible, thanks!

In my humble opinion, this is THE team for the ‘better Virgin Islands’ we’d all like to see, and the most important thing to do is simply get the word out!!!

thanks again!

Warren

Posted in Political | No Comments »

fiscal update

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 20th November 2013

No talk yet of waiving the sequesters?

McConnell: Stand Firm on Spending

November 19 (WSJ) — With budget negotiations stalled, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is pushing his GOP colleagues to resist efforts to ease across-the-board spending cuts due to take effect in mid-January. Mr. McConnell has argued it is better to let the cuts take effect than to agree to a budget deal that would allow overall spending to increase or revenues to rise. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, also speaking at the Journal event, said he would continue negotiating with Democrats to reach an agreement but didn’t express optimism. Mr. Ryan, who chairs the conference, said if necessary Republicans would pass a bill to keep the government open and allow the sequester’s new spending cuts to take effect.

Posted in Government Spending, Political | No Comments »

Ted’s Dad’s sermon

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 18th October 2013

No relation to former Senator Ted Kennedy…

Cruz’ Father Suggests Ted Cruz Is “Anointed” to Bring About The “End Time Transfer of Wealth”

“In a sermon last year at an Irving, Texas, megachurch that helped elect Ted Cruz to the United States Senate, Cruz’ father Rafael Cruz indicated that his son was among the evangelical Christians who are anointed as “kings” to take control of all sectors of society, an agenda commonly referred to as the “Seven Mountains” mandate, and “bring the spoils of war to the priests”, thus helping to bring about a prophesied “great transfer of wealth”, from the “wicked” to righteous gentile believers.”

Posted in Political | No Comments »

fuzzy presidential logic

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 16th October 2013

“Also, the White House supports a provision in the deal that strengthens verification measures for people getting subsidies under Obamacare, spokesman Jay Carney said.

Carney called the change “a modest adjustment,” and said it didn’t amount to “ransom” for raising the federal debt ceiling because both sides agreed to it and the White House supported it.”

Posted in Political | No Comments »

today’s charts and opinion

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 15th October 2013

Not looking good. And Congress and the President not in any rush either, seems. Still looking to me like they are getting their sense of security from:

The stock market doing ok, believing a balanced budget is a good thing, both sides trying to take credit for this year’s drop in the deficit. Recalling the ‘fear mongering’ in front of the last round of tax hikes and sequesters. Recalling markets bounced back after the Aug 2011 debacle, etc. Voters convinced govt should limit spending to what it takes in.

That is, letting the US go cold turkey to a balanced budget is consistent with their ideology and with current political dynamics.

They are maneuvering only to try to make sure that if it works they get the credit and if it fails the opposition gets the blame.

And I hope I’m wrong!!!

Posted in Government Spending, Political | No Comments »

Meeting postponed between President Obama, Congressional leadership

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 14th October 2013

What’s the rush?

Neither side has any interest in ‘compromise’ nor fears going cold turkey to a balanced budget.

In fact, they all believe we owe it to our grandchildren to do exactly that.
:(

Meeting postponed between President Obama, Congressional leadership

October 14 — A meeting between President Barack Obama and congressional leaders to discuss progress toward a deal to re-open the government and raise the U.S. debt ceiling has been postponed to give the Senate more time, the White House said on Monday.

Obama had been due to meet with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi at 3:00 p.m. The last meeting between Obama and the congressional leaders was Oct. 2.

Posted in Political | No Comments »

How about Congress passes the debt ceiling but not the continuing resolution?

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 3rd October 2013

Posted in Political | No Comments »

Shutdown- this time it’s very different

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 2nd October 2013

The negatives:

Profit growth already low and slowing
Car sales rolled over in September
New home sales already rolled over
Housing starts flattened
Personal income anemic, and distribution issues further softening demand
800,000 federal workers not getting paid
0 rate policy/QE is a deflationary bias
Pro active austerity already initiated
Federal deficit looking too low for financial conditions
Markets/analysts have ignored/ridiculed the paradox of thrift so are ‘long and wrong’
Japan’s currency depreciation works against US and euro domestic demand

Not only no chance of fiscal relaxation if things go bad, but more likely further fiscal tightening.

So it’s thereby worse than flying without a net.

The positives:

Just rhetoric-
Americans are resilient and all that…

feel free to distribute.

Posted in Government Spending, Housing, Political | No Comments »

HOUSE REPUBLICANS LINE UP FOR FREE ANNUAL PHYSICALS BEFORE DEFUNDING OBAMACARE

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 23rd September 2013

HOUSE REPUBLICANS LINE UP FOR FREE ANNUAL PHYSICALS BEFORE DEFUNDING OBAMACARE

By Andy Borowitz

September 20 — Saying that they needed to be in peak physical condition for their looming effort to defund Obamacare, over a hundred House Republicans lined up for their free annual physicals today.

The physicals, part of Congress’s government-subsidized health-care package, yielded good news for many of the House G.O.P., who learned that they were strong and healthy enough for the demanding task of defunding Obamacare.

“My blood pressure was lower than I thought it would be,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). “That’s amazing, because it goes through the roof whenever I think about how Obamacare would destroy America.”

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Virginia)—whose free annual physical included an examination of his heart, lungs, ears, eyes, throat, and blood—said that his doctor proclaimed him in perfect physical condition: “He said I should be able to live a long, healthy life and defund Obamacare for many years to come.”

Rep. Cantor added that he had lost a few pounds since last year’s free annual physical, as he headed to lunch before defunding food stamps.

Posted in Political | No Comments »

Debt ceiling

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 19th September 2013

Remember, unlike just a tax hike or spending cut, hitting the debt ceiling means going cold turkey to a balanced budget, which is catastrophic as it eliminates the automatic stabilizers and triggers a downward spiral that, if left to continue, could take maybe 25% off of GDP in 90 days, and still be accelerating downward.

Boehner: We’ll win the fight to defund Obamacare

September 19 (Reuters) — U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said he was confident that majority Republicans in the chamber would pass a stop-gap U.S. funding measure on Friday that denies money for “Obamacare” health insurance reforms.

At a news conference on Thursday, Boehner also said Republicans had “no interest” in defaulting on U.S. debt in the looming debate over raising the U.S. debt limit.

“We will deliver a big victory in the House tomorrow, and then this fight will move over to the Senate where it belongs. I expect my Senate colleagues to be up for the battle,” Boehner said.

Posted in GDP, Government Spending, Political | No Comments »

Obama the ‘socialist’…

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 11th September 2013

Best Times for the 1 Percent Since 1920s

By Paul Wiseman

September 11 (AP) — The richest Americans were hit hard by the financial crisis. Their incomes fell more than 36 percent in the Great Recession of 2007-09 as stock prices plummeted. Incomes for the bottom 99 percent fell just 11.6 percent, according to the analysis.

But since the recession officially ended in June 2009, the top 1 percent have enjoyed the benefits of rising corporate profits and stock prices: 95 percent of the income gains reported since 2009 have gone to the top 1 percent.

That compares with a 45 percent share for the top 1 percent in the economic expansion of the 1990s and a 65 percent share from the expansion that followed the 2001 recession.

The top 1 percent of American households had pretax income above $394,000 last year. The top 10 percent had income exceeding $114,000.

Posted in Obama, Political | No Comments »

Labor Day Poster from 1956

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 3rd September 2013

Seems things have changed some since then…


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Posted in Political | No Comments »

EU Said to Draft Gazprom Complaint as Putin Prepares G-20 Talks

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 28th August 2013

And if you recall from a write up a few years back Russia promised not to take advantage like this. Who would’ve thought?

In any case it’s bad real terms of trade for euro zone gas buyers, but helps exports of whatever Russia buys with the inflated euro revenues, with export prices held down by austerity, etc.

EU Said to Draft Gazprom Complaint as Putin Prepares G-20 Talks

By Gaspard Sebag

August 26 (Bloomberg) — European Union regulators are drafting a formal antitrust complaint against OAO Gazprom, which supplies a quarter of the EUs natural gas, threatening to escalate a probe thats been attacked by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Officials are working on a statement of objections against Russias state-owned gas export monopoly, according to three people familiar with the probe, who asked not to be named because the status of the inquiry is confidential.

A complaint over allegations that the company abused its dominant position in the gas market may be sent by the end of the year if Gazprom and the EU fail to open settlement talks, said one of the people.

A showdown with Gazprom risks inflaming relations with Russia just as Putin prepares to host a meeting of leaders from the Group of 20 nations next month in St. Petersburg. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned this month that if the European Union imposes antitrust sanctions against Gazprom, it will be difficult for the company to operate in markets where it faces open discrimination.

The case has the potential to seriously disturb EU-Russia relations, said Thijs Van de Graaf, a researcher at the Ghent Institute for International Studies in Belgium. Gazprom is not a normal company in Russia. It does not only give account to its shareholders but also serves political goals.

Posted in Political | No Comments »

With friends like this who needs enemies…

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 5th August 2013

Right on top of the wall of shame:

A message from Larry Kotlikoff

Dear Fellow Economists,

I write to ask you to join 11 Nobel Laureates in Economics, other leading economists, and former government officials in endorsing the INFORM ACT (Intergenerational Financial Obligations Reform Act) at www.theINFORMact.org. The bill was introduced on a bipartisan basis in the Senate last week, and we expect bipartisan introduction in the House next week.

All endorsements will be included in a letter to Congress, posted on the website, that will appear early this fall in a full-page ad in the New York Times.

The INFORM ACT, which I drafted in large part with the assistance of Alan Auerbach, requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to do fiscal gap and generational accounting on an annual basis and, upon request by Congress, to use these accounting methods to evaluate major pieces of proposed legislation.

While no measure of fiscal sustainability and generational equity is perfect, fiscal gap and generational accounting offer significant advantages relative to conventional measures of official debt. First, they are comprehensive and forward-looking. Second, they are based on the government’s intertemporal budget constraint, which is a mainstay of our dynamic models of fiscal policy. Third, do not leave anything off the books.

Fiscal gap and generational accounting have been done for roughly 40 developed and developing countries either by their treasury departments, finance ministries, or central banks, or by the IMF, the World Bank, or other international agencies, or by academics and think tanks. Fiscal gap accounting is not new to our own government. The Social Security Trustees and Medicare Trustees have been presenting such calculations for their own systems for years in their annual reports. And generational accounting has been included in the President’s Budget on three occasions.

According to recent IMF and CBO projections, the U.S. fiscal gap is many times larger than the official debt and compounding much more rapidly. The longer we wait to close the fiscal gap, the more difficult will be the adjustment for ourselves and for our children. This said, acknowledging the government’s fiscal gap and deciding how to deal with it does not rule out productive government investments in infrastructure, education, research, or the environment, or in pro-growth tax reforms.

We cannot change or fully avoid politics. But our profession has a responsibility to the truth, as best we can describe it, that transcends politics –– a responsibility that becomes a moral imperative when our nation’s economic future and our children’s welfare are at stake.

Please join me in endorsing this critically important bill at www.theINFORMact.org, and please use whatever social media and communication tools you have available to encourage your colleagues, friends, and associates to do the same.

With deep appreciation for considering this request,

Larry Kotlikoff
Professor of Economics
Boston University

Posted in Government Spending, Political | No Comments »

51 Dead, 435 Hurt in Clashes Near Pro-Morsi Sit-in

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 9th July 2013

As feared, Egypt is turning into Somalia, and the rest of the world is heading in the same direction

51 Dead, 435 Hurt in Clashes Near Pro-Morsi Sit-in

July 8 (NBC) — At least 51 people were killed and 435 injured in clashes early Monday near the Republican Guard headquarters in the Egyptian capital, the Ministry of Health said.

Supporters of deposed President Mohammed Morsi had been holding a sit-in near the compound.

Reuters cited the Egyptian military as saying “a terrorist group” had tried to storm the building early Monday. A Ministry of Defense official said that 200 people were arrested after protesters attacked the site around 4 a.m. local time (10 p.m. ET on Sunday). Some were armed with guns, Molotov cocktails and knives, according to the official. One officer was killed and six troops wounded, the military said.

However, Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood and its allies accused security forces of attacking protesters. NBC News was not immediately able to reconcile the differing accounts.

Members of the Muslim Brotherhood have been protesting near the Republican Guard headquarters since Morsi was removed from office, amid speculation he may be under house arrest at the site.

Posted in Political | No Comments »

campaign finance reform

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 1st July 2013

Excellent!!!!!

New Campaign Finance Proposal Splits Donations among Candidates

By Brandon Fallon

Posted in Political | No Comments »

Please sign this Petition, it’s important!

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 27th May 2013

Need any 3500 names to launch the investigation into the USVI election process that shamelessly rigged the Congressional election last November.
.
Please click here and ‘sign’ if you can, and email to others if you can.

Thanks!

Posted in Political | No Comments »