Shutdown- this time it’s very different

The negatives:

Profit growth already low and slowing
Car sales rolled over in September
New home sales already rolled over
Housing starts flattened
Personal income anemic, and distribution issues further softening demand
800,000 federal workers not getting paid
0 rate policy/QE is a deflationary bias
Pro active austerity already initiated
Federal deficit looking too low for financial conditions
Markets/analysts have ignored/ridiculed the paradox of thrift so are ‘long and wrong’
Japan’s currency depreciation works against US and euro domestic demand

Not only no chance of fiscal relaxation if things go bad, but more likely further fiscal tightening.

So it’s thereby worse than flying without a net.

The positives:

Just rhetoric-
Americans are resilient and all that…

feel free to distribute.

HOUSE REPUBLICANS LINE UP FOR FREE ANNUAL PHYSICALS BEFORE DEFUNDING OBAMACARE

HOUSE REPUBLICANS LINE UP FOR FREE ANNUAL PHYSICALS BEFORE DEFUNDING OBAMACARE

By Andy Borowitz

September 20 — Saying that they needed to be in peak physical condition for their looming effort to defund Obamacare, over a hundred House Republicans lined up for their free annual physicals today.

The physicals, part of Congress’s government-subsidized health-care package, yielded good news for many of the House G.O.P., who learned that they were strong and healthy enough for the demanding task of defunding Obamacare.

“My blood pressure was lower than I thought it would be,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). “That’s amazing, because it goes through the roof whenever I think about how Obamacare would destroy America.”

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Virginia)—whose free annual physical included an examination of his heart, lungs, ears, eyes, throat, and blood—said that his doctor proclaimed him in perfect physical condition: “He said I should be able to live a long, healthy life and defund Obamacare for many years to come.”

Rep. Cantor added that he had lost a few pounds since last year’s free annual physical, as he headed to lunch before defunding food stamps.

Debt ceiling

Remember, unlike just a tax hike or spending cut, hitting the debt ceiling means going cold turkey to a balanced budget, which is catastrophic as it eliminates the automatic stabilizers and triggers a downward spiral that, if left to continue, could take maybe 25% off of GDP in 90 days, and still be accelerating downward.

Boehner: We’ll win the fight to defund Obamacare

September 19 (Reuters) — U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said he was confident that majority Republicans in the chamber would pass a stop-gap U.S. funding measure on Friday that denies money for “Obamacare” health insurance reforms.

At a news conference on Thursday, Boehner also said Republicans had “no interest” in defaulting on U.S. debt in the looming debate over raising the U.S. debt limit.

“We will deliver a big victory in the House tomorrow, and then this fight will move over to the Senate where it belongs. I expect my Senate colleagues to be up for the battle,” Boehner said.

Obama the ‘socialist’…

Best Times for the 1 Percent Since 1920s

By Paul Wiseman

September 11 (AP) — The richest Americans were hit hard by the financial crisis. Their incomes fell more than 36 percent in the Great Recession of 2007-09 as stock prices plummeted. Incomes for the bottom 99 percent fell just 11.6 percent, according to the analysis.

But since the recession officially ended in June 2009, the top 1 percent have enjoyed the benefits of rising corporate profits and stock prices: 95 percent of the income gains reported since 2009 have gone to the top 1 percent.

That compares with a 45 percent share for the top 1 percent in the economic expansion of the 1990s and a 65 percent share from the expansion that followed the 2001 recession.

The top 1 percent of American households had pretax income above $394,000 last year. The top 10 percent had income exceeding $114,000.

EU Said to Draft Gazprom Complaint as Putin Prepares G-20 Talks

And if you recall from a write up a few years back Russia promised not to take advantage like this. Who would’ve thought?

In any case it’s bad real terms of trade for euro zone gas buyers, but helps exports of whatever Russia buys with the inflated euro revenues, with export prices held down by austerity, etc.

EU Said to Draft Gazprom Complaint as Putin Prepares G-20 Talks

By Gaspard Sebag

August 26 (Bloomberg) — European Union regulators are drafting a formal antitrust complaint against OAO Gazprom, which supplies a quarter of the EUs natural gas, threatening to escalate a probe thats been attacked by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Officials are working on a statement of objections against Russias state-owned gas export monopoly, according to three people familiar with the probe, who asked not to be named because the status of the inquiry is confidential.

A complaint over allegations that the company abused its dominant position in the gas market may be sent by the end of the year if Gazprom and the EU fail to open settlement talks, said one of the people.

A showdown with Gazprom risks inflaming relations with Russia just as Putin prepares to host a meeting of leaders from the Group of 20 nations next month in St. Petersburg. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned this month that if the European Union imposes antitrust sanctions against Gazprom, it will be difficult for the company to operate in markets where it faces open discrimination.

The case has the potential to seriously disturb EU-Russia relations, said Thijs Van de Graaf, a researcher at the Ghent Institute for International Studies in Belgium. Gazprom is not a normal company in Russia. It does not only give account to its shareholders but also serves political goals.

With friends like this who needs enemies…

Right on top of the wall of shame:

A message from Larry Kotlikoff

Dear Fellow Economists,

I write to ask you to join 11 Nobel Laureates in Economics, other leading economists, and former government officials in endorsing the INFORM ACT (Intergenerational Financial Obligations Reform Act) at www.theINFORMact.org. The bill was introduced on a bipartisan basis in the Senate last week, and we expect bipartisan introduction in the House next week.

All endorsements will be included in a letter to Congress, posted on the website, that will appear early this fall in a full-page ad in the New York Times.

The INFORM ACT, which I drafted in large part with the assistance of Alan Auerbach, requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to do fiscal gap and generational accounting on an annual basis and, upon request by Congress, to use these accounting methods to evaluate major pieces of proposed legislation.

While no measure of fiscal sustainability and generational equity is perfect, fiscal gap and generational accounting offer significant advantages relative to conventional measures of official debt. First, they are comprehensive and forward-looking. Second, they are based on the government’s intertemporal budget constraint, which is a mainstay of our dynamic models of fiscal policy. Third, do not leave anything off the books.

Fiscal gap and generational accounting have been done for roughly 40 developed and developing countries either by their treasury departments, finance ministries, or central banks, or by the IMF, the World Bank, or other international agencies, or by academics and think tanks. Fiscal gap accounting is not new to our own government. The Social Security Trustees and Medicare Trustees have been presenting such calculations for their own systems for years in their annual reports. And generational accounting has been included in the President’s Budget on three occasions.

According to recent IMF and CBO projections, the U.S. fiscal gap is many times larger than the official debt and compounding much more rapidly. The longer we wait to close the fiscal gap, the more difficult will be the adjustment for ourselves and for our children. This said, acknowledging the government’s fiscal gap and deciding how to deal with it does not rule out productive government investments in infrastructure, education, research, or the environment, or in pro-growth tax reforms.

We cannot change or fully avoid politics. But our profession has a responsibility to the truth, as best we can describe it, that transcends politics –– a responsibility that becomes a moral imperative when our nation’s economic future and our children’s welfare are at stake.

Please join me in endorsing this critically important bill at www.theINFORMact.org, and please use whatever social media and communication tools you have available to encourage your colleagues, friends, and associates to do the same.

With deep appreciation for considering this request,

Larry Kotlikoff
Professor of Economics
Boston University

51 Dead, 435 Hurt in Clashes Near Pro-Morsi Sit-in

As feared, Egypt is turning into Somalia, and the rest of the world is heading in the same direction

51 Dead, 435 Hurt in Clashes Near Pro-Morsi Sit-in

July 8 (NBC) — At least 51 people were killed and 435 injured in clashes early Monday near the Republican Guard headquarters in the Egyptian capital, the Ministry of Health said.

Supporters of deposed President Mohammed Morsi had been holding a sit-in near the compound.

Reuters cited the Egyptian military as saying “a terrorist group” had tried to storm the building early Monday. A Ministry of Defense official said that 200 people were arrested after protesters attacked the site around 4 a.m. local time (10 p.m. ET on Sunday). Some were armed with guns, Molotov cocktails and knives, according to the official. One officer was killed and six troops wounded, the military said.

However, Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood and its allies accused security forces of attacking protesters. NBC News was not immediately able to reconcile the differing accounts.

Members of the Muslim Brotherhood have been protesting near the Republican Guard headquarters since Morsi was removed from office, amid speculation he may be under house arrest at the site.