Deficit Archive

Federal Deficit below last year

The budget deficit is now looking too small to sustain growth, as evidenced by the incoming data over the last 6 months. The problem is, as always, unspent income- aka demand leakages- must be offset by agents spending more than their incomes or the output goes unsold. And collapsing GDP growth and ...Read More

Fed’s Beige Book

The sharp reduction in oil capex that was driving the economy has predictably shown up first in the oil states like Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, etc. Just as these states led on the way up, they are leading on the way down as well, with that weakness working its way to the ...Read More

macro update

At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in ...Read More

NFIB chart, NY Fed debt chart, April tax collections

Small increase and still down from year end levels, still very low historically, real sales- what matters most- were down: Small Business Optimism Rises, But Future Sales Cloud Outlook The Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points from March to 96.9, this in spite of a quarter of virtually no economic growth. ...Read More

RT interview

My interview starts at 3:30 ...Read More

labor mkt index, ISM services, tax collections, truck sales, lumber

Presumably this means something to the Fed: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights The Fed’s Board of Governors Research Department’s unofficial report on labor market conditions came in weak for March, dropping to minus 0.3 from plus 2.0 in February. There was no text or detail on the unofficial report but highly likely ...Read More

Balanced budget amendment getting closer, consumer credit, Redbook retail sales, JOLTS

the BIG stupid… Conservative lawmakers weigh bid to call for constitutional convention Consumer Credit Highlights Consumer credit rose a solid looking $15.5 billion in February but a closer look shows an unwanted $3.7 billion decline in revolving credit. This is the 4th decline in 5 months for the revolving component which reflects ...Read More

new from Bernanke

In case there was any doubt… >    >   (email exchange) >    >   On Mon, Mar 30, 2015 at 11:28 AM, Scott wrote: >    New from Bernanke: Why are interest rates so low? Bad: what matters most for the economy is the real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rate (the market, or nominal, interest rate minus the ...Read More

Credit Check, Fed check

Not much going on this week and not much to concern the Fed? The way they see things, isn’t the point of raising rates to slow credit growth? Are they thinking 0 rates and QE has caused excessive credit expansion? ;) Aha! Real estate related borrowing is picking up a bit- time ...Read More

mtg purchase apps, architect billings index, oil debt comments, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

Still no sign of life here: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Despite low mortgage rates, demand for mortgage purchase applications continues to be weak, down 2.0 percent in the March 13 week for a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.0 percent. Refinance applications fell 5.0 percent in the week. Rates moved lower in ...Read More