Category Archives: Deficit

State and local govt charts

The bulk of the boost is coming from state and municipal governments. After tightening their budgets for three years following the end of the recession, they began stepping up spending in 2013 and continued to do so this year Except … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Government Spending |

There is no right time for the Fed to raise rates!

There is no right time for the Fed to raise rates! Introduction I reject the belief that economy is strong and operating anywhere near full employment. I also reject the belief that a zero-rate policy is inflationary, supports aggregate demand, … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Fed, Government Spending, Interest Rates, Proposal |

Who’s ‘we’?

And they still are? The idea that the deficit is too small remains a non starter for the mainstream. In the face of all evidence to the contrary, including over 2 decades of it in Japan, they continue to believe … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Deficit, Government Spending |

Case-Shiller housing price index

Looks to me like this business cycle is over? This is a lack of demand story. The FICA hike in Jan 2013, followed by the sequesters in April, and the aggressive automatic fiscal stabilizers doing their thing to reduce govt … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Government Spending, Housing |

The first L shaped US ‘recovery’

Some 5 years ago when the talk was about whether the US recovery was going to be V shaped or U shaped, I suggested that it would be more L shaped, as a 0 rate policy requires a larger deficit, … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Deficit, Government Spending, Housing |

Producer prices chart and other news

Remember all that ‘hyper inflation’ talk surrounding 0 rates and QE? No sign of it here. Or anywhere else I’ve looked: Nor do you hear any more talk about ‘credit acceleration’ since its post winter growth fizzled: And wage growth … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Inflation |

Construction, gasoline prices, manufacturing, state and local contribution to gdp, restaurant performance index, saudi output, sun spots

Headlines sound a lot better than the charts look. Absolute levels and growth rates continue to fall short of prior cycles: Construction Spending Highlights Construction outlays saw a broad-based gain in July. Construction spending rebounded 1.8 percent after a 0.9 … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, GDP, Government Spending, Housing |

Real Fiscal Responsibility Today Radio and TV Show pilots

The Real Fiscal Responsibility Talk Show Pilot Project This project is for everyone tired of hearing economic commentary from those who got everything wrong. For decades the the doctrine of “Fiscal Responsibility” interpreted as long-term deficit reduction and Government austerity … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, GDP, Government Spending | Tagged |

taking away the punch bowl

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Posted in Deficit, Government Spending |

GDP

A few charts/comments below. More after the first revision to Q2 come out. Looks to me like the macro constraint narrative is still intact. Just a word here about state and local govt spending adding to GDP. Yes, there was … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, GDP |