Monthly Archive:: July 2009

cash for clunkers may cost govt. up to $45,354 per vehicle

[Skip to the end] (short version) “Cash for Clunkers” Program May Cost $45,354 per vehicle By Avery Goodman (Seeking Alpha) — The “Cash for Clunkers” program has been a “great success”, at least according to the government, and the auto industry. Within days of its kickoff, all $1 billion allocated to the ...Read More

GDP/ECI

[Skip to the end] Karim writes: Most important info in the report is the benchmark revisions: The first year of the recession (Q4 2007-Q3 2008) was revised from -0.8% to -1.9%. This adds a full percentage point to the Fed’s output gap measure. Also, Q2 2009 negative print marks first time U.S. ...Read More

SZ News: Leading Indicators Rise, Signaling Slump Is Abating

[Skip to the end] Yes, seems to be world wide. The combined global fiscal measures both pro active and ‘automatic’ seemed to have halted the slide. Depressions are highly improbable with non convertible currency and floating fx policies. Swiss Leading Indicators Rise, Signaling Slump Is Abating By Klaus Wille July 31 (Bloomberg) ...Read More

NY FED – Shadow Financial Market

[Skip to the end] The findings add support to my proposal to ban banks from all secondary markets Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports The Shadow Banking System: Implications for Financial Regulation Tobias Adrian Hyun Song Shin Staff Report no. 382 July 2009 This paper presents preliminary findings and is ...Read More

TIPS 5 year 5 years fwd

This used to be one of the Fed’s major concerns as they are steeped in inflation expectations theory. It could still signal a need to keep a modestly positive ‘real rate’ though the large ‘output gap’ is telling them otherwise. History says they’ll put most of the weight on the output gap, ...Read More

JN Daily | Jobless Rate Moves Higher, CPI drops, HHold Spending Misses Expectations

[Skip to the end] Looks like China is starting to stabilize Japan, which means it is probably helping the eurozone some as well. Shipments Up Across Industries In June As Production Recovers Cost Cuts Help Electronics Firms Reduce Losses In April-June Jobless Rate Hits 6-Year High Of 5.4% In June Household Spending ...Read More

Excellent NY Fed staff report on qantitative easing

[Skip to the end] This should be more than enough to dismiss concerns of reserves influencing lending, apart from price. Hope they do a full public relations effort on this. A touch weak on fully dismissing the ‘money multiplier’ but certainly 99% ‘there:’ NY Fed Staff report: “The general idea here should ...Read More

NY Fed’s Dudley tees off on reserve-driven inflation view

[Skip to the end] Dudley almost has it. NY Fed’s Dudley tees off on reserve-driven inflation view As Dudley notes, the fears of higher inflation expressed in that survey are likely being influenced by the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, which has of necessity increased excess reserves. The argument that large amounts of ...Read More

EU Daily | ECB sees ‘turning point’ in lending conditions

[Skip to the end] Yes, central banks have finally managed to restore a degree of ‘market functioning’ after full year or more of ‘extraordinary measures’ which mainly served to demonstrate a lack of understanding of basic monetary operations. Note that only after automatic stabilizers began to reverse the slide at year end ...Read More

Geithner Pledges Smaller Deficit as China Talks Start

[Skip to the end] Geithner Pledges Smaller Deficit as China Talks Start By Rebecca Christie and Rob Delaney July 27 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pledged the U.S. will shrink its budget deficit over the next four years and boost national savings, Ah, ‘national savings,’ that gold standard measure that’s inapplicable ...Read More