mtg apps dip

How does that go again about low rates helping housing?

Mortgage Applications Dipped Last Week

June 29 (Reuters) — Applications for U.S. home mortgages slipped last week as demand waned, even as mortgage rates dropped, an industry group said Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.7 percent in the week ended June 24.

The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 2.6 percent, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases lost 3.0 percent.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 69.5 percent of total applications from 69.2 percent the week before.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.46 percent in the week, down from 4.57 percent.

Small banks being crushed by Fed’s game of musical chairs

Small banks, already penalized with a higher cost of funds than the large banks (link) have more recently been forced to contract due to ‘wholesale funding’ restrictions being imposed by the regulators.

Bank regulators distinguish between what they call ‘retail’ and ‘wholesale’ funding, and have set limits of small banks for ‘wholesale’ funding. This policy is meant to reduce the liquidity risk of a bank not being able to roll over its funding should depositors decide to take their dollars to another bank. The theory is that ‘retail’ deposits are ‘sticky’ and less likely to move to another bank, while ‘wholesale’ deposits are more likely to move. And the ‘better’ the ‘account relationship’ the more likely the funds are to stay with the bank. Oddly, when I inquired if the maturity of the deposit is a consideration the regulators responded ‘no.’ So that means a 10 year CD obtained through a broker is considered a wholesale deposit, which must be limited, while money market deposits from local depositors that can leave the next day are the core retail deposits required by the regulators for ‘stability.’

But apart from this obvious regulatory failure to recognize what’s more stable and what’s less stable for individual banks, there is also a highly problematic macro issue. In the banking system as a whole, loans create deposits, meaning that for each loan made by a bank (bank assets) there exists a bank deposit of the same amount originally created at the time of the loan as that bank’s liability. In short, for the banking system as a whole, loans equal deposits.

The problem is that money center banks attract more of these total deposits than the small banks in the normal course of business. That leaves the small banks short of deposits by an equal amount. This is easily resolved by the small banks needing funding borrowing the excess funds held by the large banks. And if the large banks decide to keep their excess funds at the Federal Reserve Bank the small banks can simply borrow from the Fed to cover their shortage. In any case the total funding of the banking system remains equal to the total loans outstanding, with the Fed acting as a ‘broker’ to facilitate system wide liquidity. However, when regulators restrict this ‘wholesale funding’ between banks, and also deem borrowings from the Fed ‘wholesale funding,’ they put powerful forces in place that force the small banks to either pay higher rates to attract deposits from the large banks, which is often impossible as large corporate customers can’t deal with small banks, or force the small banks to cut back on lending to reduce their dependence on wholesale funding.

The net result is a misguided regulatory policy that is both increasing the cost of funds to small banks and forcing small banks to cut back on lending.

The remedy is quite simple, have the Fed offer funding (fed funds) to all member banks at it’s target interest rate, which is the rate the Fed desires to in fact be the cost of funds for its banking system as a matter of public policy. In any case, bank borrowing and lending is rightly constrained by capital and other regulatory requirements, and not available funding, which is always attainable at a price. Using the liability side of banking for market discipline, as is currently the practice for small banks, is always evidence of a lack of understanding of banking fundamentals and counter to further public purpose.

Please distribute this to your favorite regulator, Congressman, and Fed official, thanks!

mtg apps for new purchases fall again

Seems the fall off after the tax credit ended April 30th has yet to fully run its course:

US Mortgage Applications Soar on Refinance Demand

July 7th (Reuters) —Refinancing drove total U.S. mortgage applications to a nine-month high last week, while demand for loans to purchase homes sunk to a near 13-year low as buyers remained sidelined after the expiration of federal tax credits.

Mortgage rates stuck around record lows, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, giving homeowners another chance to cut monthly payments by refinancing.

Refinancing requests jumped 9.2 percent in the week ended July 2 to the highest level since May 2009, lifting total applications by 6.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, to the highest level since early October 2009.

Demand for mortgages to buy homes slipped 2 percent. It was the eighth weekly drop in the nine weeks since the federal tax credits for homebuyers expired on April 30.

“For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15 percent relative to the prior month and were down more than 30 percent compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit,” Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.

The average 30-year mortgage rate was little changed in the week ended July 2, climbing 0.01 percentage point to 4.68 percent.

The borrowing rate lingered just above the record low of 4.61 percent set in March 2009, according to the MBA’s records that date back to 1990.

Fifteen-year mortgage rates rose to 4.11 percent last week from the record low 4.06 percent set the prior week.

Refinancings accounted for 78.7 percent of all applications last week, the highest share since April 2009, the industry group said.

Tepid employment growth and a surprisingly steep slump in pending home sales kept interest rates low.

Home purchases will stay weak over the next few months as the housing market adjusts to the end of government incentives, and prices should bottom around the third quarter, said Robert Andrews, senior research analyst at IBISWorld in Santa Monica, California.

Fallout from record defaults and foreclosures are also likely to sway many younger buyers from making such a big commitment in the near term, he said.

“People in my generation, people 20 to 30 years old, saw the downside risk associated with housing, so I think there’s going to be a bit weaker demand over the next few years,” said Andrews.

Refinancing, likewise, is unlikely to approach the levels seen last year when mortgage rates were near current levels.

Borrowers who could qualify for refinancing have in most cases already refinanced, most analysts agree.

CCB to Reduce New Lending by 70% as Risks ‘Evident,’ Zhang Says


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This looks ominous if not ‘replaced’ by deficit spending.

CCB’s Second Half New Loans to Fall, President Says

Bloomberg News

August 7th (Bloomberg) — China Construction Bank Corp. will reduce new lending by about 70 percent in the second half after a surge in loans in the first six months increased credit risk, President Zhang Jianguo said in an interview.


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Re: Fed to lend to CBs in unlimited quantities


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(email exchange)

>   
>   On Mon, Oct 13, 2008 at 3:00 PM, Craig wrote:
>   
>   Since nobody understand the local currency / foreign currency distinction and
>   since these obligations are part of the normal financial commerce of these
>   countries, is it possible that these loans will allow the markets to normalize,
>   

Yes.

>   
>   Allow the various governmental bodies to remove the guarantees/lending and
>   never realize this risk existed?
>   

Probably not.

>   
>   Everybody was perfectly happy with these private sector risks before the
>   credit markets seized up. Other than the sudden realization of everything
>   you’ve pointed out, what factors will put this over the edge?
>   
>   All this boils down to this question: Does this necessarily have to end badly?
>   

Looks that way to me.

>   
>   Or can the participants use this as a life rope to deleverage successfully,
>   ending the need for the life rope?
>   

I think the incentives are now in place for massive fraud.

Eurozone banks will find it hard to resist the demand for USD loans to their ‘friends’ in finance and industry, that will be based on inflated appraisals, inflated income statements, etc.

Just like the subprime issue was here.

It’s open season and my guess is the Fed is about to be in shock at the size of the first auction.


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