Tag Archives: ISM Manufacturing

ISM

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Karim writes:

Inventory rebuild in full swing—gap between orders and inventories at 34yr high; Timing of CARS definitely a factor but inventory rebuild more broadly to contribute anywhere from 2-3% to GDP gwth in H2.

Employment reading still weak and outlook for final demand still poor due to employment, wealth, and income factors.

And subsequent release of car sales numbers weaker than expected.

  • “Production is picking up as demand [for] orders is being accelerated.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
  • “Demand from automotive manufacturers increasing thanks to ‘Cash for Clunkers.'” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “In addition to improved business come the complications of a supply chain drained of inventory.” (Paper Products)
  • “The sudden increase in customer demand, plus the low inventories held at services centers, is causing a shortage in the supply of raw steel.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “[It] appears customers’ inventories are getting low, and they are cautiously placing orders.” (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)



August July
Overall 52.9 48.9
Prices paid 65.0 55.0

This did not take long to reverse, helped by the weaker dollar.



Production 61.9 57.9
New Orders 64.9 55.3
Inventories 34.4 33.5
Employment 46.4 45.6
Export Orders 55.5 50.5

Exports up and imports down as real terms of trade continue to weaken.



Imports 49.5 50.0


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ISM

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Agreed.

We could see positive growth for while without much improvement in final demand, supported longer term by government, exports, and investment.

Equity markets strong, better than expected earnings, with real estate to follow with a lag, and high unemployment keeping real wages/business costs down.

Real wealth continues to flow from the bottom to the top.

Risks include rising marginal tax rates next year and other possible demand drains from one time fiscal adjustments running their course. But that’s too far ahead for markets to discount.


Karim writes:

Details strong; anecdotes weak. Suggests an inventory restocking, but little to no improvement in final demand.

Consistent with Fed baseline of H2 restocking to lead to positive Q3 and Q4 growth but concern over next catalyst going into 2010.

Strength in orders vs inventories could well see headline rise above 50 next month.



July June
Index 48.9 44.8
Prices paid 55.0 50.0
Production 57.9 52.5
New Orders 55.3 49.2
Inventories 33.5 30.8
Employment 45.6 40.7
Export Orders 50.5 49.5
Imports 50.0 46.0

* “[There is concern about] overall health of strategic suppliers — continue to see new suppliers filing Chapter 7 or 11, posing significant risk to supply chain.” (Machinery)

* “We believe our inventories are now at the bottom of this cycle, driving stronger demand for raw materials.” (Paper Products)

* “While our aftermarket business has improved slightly, we are still awaiting an increase in OEM demand.” (Transportation Equipment)

* “No stimulus for manufacturing.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

* “Looking at another round of shutdowns to align supply with projected demands.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)


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2009-05-01 USER

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U of Michigan Confidence (Apr F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 65.1
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final April rises to 65.1 from prelim 61.9
  • Inflation expectations edge down from 3.0% to 2.8% for 1yr fwd; edge up from 2.7% to 2.8% for 5yr fwd

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U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Apr F)

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Factory Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.6%
Prior -19.7%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 38.4
Actual 40.1
Prior 36.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • In line with signal provided by Chicago PMI yesterday. Improvement to a still contractionary level; orders boosted by some new found availability of cash/credit, though not all the way back (see anecdote below).

    • All sub-components up;16 or 17 industries still contracting.

Commodities Up in Price

Copper is the only commodity reported up in price.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum; Aluminum Based Products; Caustic Soda; Corrugated Containers; Fuel Surcharges; Natural Gas; Scrap Metal; Steel; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

  • “International customers are having trouble getting cash for new orders, even though they need/want the equipment.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Starting to see some signs of increased production and demand from some automotive customers.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Business conditions continue to be soft, but agriculture-related products are still quite bullish.” (Machinery)
  • “We are optimistic that things will change for the better in 3Q.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Starting to hear of slight upticks in orders from some sectors of our business but not all.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

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ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 34.0
Actual 32.0
Prior 31.0
Revised n/a


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2009-04-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 32.2%
Revised n/a

 
More evidence of the rising deficit turning the economy sideways ahead of the fiscal package kicking in this month to increase the injection of net financial assets to the non government sectors:

US mortgage applications climb, rates at fresh low

by Lynn Adler

Apr 1 (Reuters) — The Mortgage Bankers Association’s applications index, which includes both refi and purchase requests, rose by a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the week ending March 27 to 1,194.4.

The purchase applications index was little changed, rising 0.1 percent to 268.0, while the refinancing gauge gained 3.7 percent to 6,600.1.

This is up sharply from 2,722.7 as recently as early February.

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 268.00
Prior 267.80
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 6600.10
Prior 6363.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7%
Prior 158.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Mar)

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ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -663K
Actual -742K
Prior -697K
Revised -706K

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ADP ALLX (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 36.0
Actual 36.3
Prior 35.8
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 33.0
Actual 31.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -3.3%
Revised -3.5%

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Construction Spending YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.0%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior -6.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-03-02 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Jan)

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Personal Spending (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 33.8
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 33.5
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.3%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -2.4%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.1%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a


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2009-02-02 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.4%

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Personal Income YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.4%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Dec)

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Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey -0.9%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.8%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 32.5
Actual 35.6
Prior 32.4
Revised 32.9

 
Karim writes:

  • ISM bounces but level remains at recessionary/deflationary levels.

  • Headline rises by 2.7pts and price paid by 11pts.

  • Bounces seem quite narrow in scope as only 2 of 18 industries posted a rise in orders and 1 of 18 an increase in prices (metals-which oddly, has anecdote below about year being down 20-30%).

  • Manufacturing Index 35.6/32.9

  • Prices paid 29.0/18.0

  • Production 32.1/26.3

  • New orders 33.2/23.1

  • Employment 29.9/29.9

  • Export orders 37.5/35.5

  • Imports 36.5/39.0

  • “The slowdown in the automobile industry is forcing their suppliers to reduce production and employment.” (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)

  • “Our manufacturing is tied to the automobile industry, and we are seeing the ‘trickle down’ effect.” (Chemical Products)

  • “High inventory at customers is slowing production orders.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

  • “Sales are settling in; Q4 was better than expected.” (Machinery)

  • “Consumer confidence is low. Could see the entire year being down 20 percent to 30 percent.” (Fabricated Metals)

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ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey 18.0
Actual 29.0
Prior 18.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.2%

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Construction Spending YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.6%
Prior -4.2%
Revised n/a


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2008-12-01 USER

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ISM Manufacturing (Nov)

Survey 37.0
Actual 36.2
Prior 38.9
Revised n/a

 
Major plunge. In line with the general economic climate.

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ISM Prices Paid (Nov)

Survey 32.0
Actual 25.5
Prior 37.0
Revised n/a

 
Another big drop as commodities continue to fall.

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Construction Spending MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.2%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.0%

 
Down more than expected.


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2008-10-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.0%
Prior -10.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 304.80
Prior 342.20
Revised n/a

 
Back towards 300, the bottom of the range. Falling like most other indicators. A weak September due to the fears of the financial crisis looks to have pushed q3 into negative numbers.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1333.90
Prior 2043.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Sep 26)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.6%
Prior 11.7%
Revised n/a

 
Not normally considered reliable, but this time in sync with other indicators of weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Sep)

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ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Survey -50K
Actual -8K
Prior -33K
Revised -37K

 
The long gradual decline continues. This number is higher by about 50,000 than the same numbers will be as measured Friday due to the Boeing strike and the hurricane. ADP counts the strikers as still employed while the government doesn’t for Friday’s number.

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ADP ALLX (Sep)

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ISM Manufacturing (Sep)

Survey 49.5
Actual 43.5
Prior 49.9
Revised n/a

 
Serious nose dive here. Talk of buyers waiting for price reductions due to commodity price drops.

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ISM Prices Paid (Sep)

Survey 73.0
Actual 53.5
Prior 77.0
Revised n/a

 
Down, lower than expected, but more than half still paying higher prices. No deflation yet.

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ISM TABLE 1 (Sep)

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ISM TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Construction Spending MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.4%

 
Flat, better than expected, but prior month revised down by .8%.

Residential rose .3% for the first increase in a long time.

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Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
The rate of decline has stabilized, and there will soon be easier comps.

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Construction Spending Residential (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 351662.0
Prior 350563.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)


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2008-09-02 USER

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ISM Manufacturing (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 49.9
Prior 50.0
Revised n/a

Not bad; far from recession levels in a sector that will continue to decline as a percentage of GDP indefinately.

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ISM Prices Paid (Aug)

Survey 82.0
Actual 77.0
Prior 88.5
Revised n/a

Less than expected, but still very high. Indication that most companies still paying higher prices even as commodities declined.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

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Construction Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.4%
Revised 0.3%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still very weak, but smaller declines.

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Jul)

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 31)

Survey -49
Actual -47
Prior -50
Revised n/a


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2008-08-01 US Economic Releases

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls MoM (Jul)

Survey -75K
Actual -51K
Prior -2K
Revised -51K

The drops are leveling off, maybe declining.

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -67
Prior 41
Revised n/a

Now down year over year.

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Jul)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls MoM (Jul)

Survey -40K
Actual -35K
Prior -33K
Revised -35K

Falling at an historically steady rate with increases in productivity and outsourcing.

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.8%
Prior -2.6%
Revised n/a

Continuiously falling.

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Manufacturing Payrolls ALLX (Jul)

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Unemployment Rate (Jul)

Survey 5.6%
Actual 5.7%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Not looking good. This represents lost real output.

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

Bending some but not breaking.

Could spring higher with a meaningful recovery in GDP.

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jul)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Growth continues to moderate some.

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Average Weekly Hours (Jul)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.6
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Looking very weak

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 2 (Jul)

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 233.37
Prior 234.41
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -15.60%
Prior -14.67%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.0
Prior 50.2
Revised n/a

Better than expected, far from recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Jul)

Survey 88.0
Actual 88.5
Prior 91.5
Revised n/a

Staying far too high for far too long for the Fed’s liking.

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ISM ALLX 1 (Jul)

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ISM ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Construction Spending MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.4%
Revised 0.0%

Weak but not terrible given the general environment.

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Construction Spending YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -6.0%
Revised n/a

Down but not in collapse.

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Construction Spending ALLX 1 (Jun)

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Construction Spending ALLX 2 (Jun)

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Construction Spending ALLX 3 (Jun)


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