2008-11-26 USER


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Karim writes:

Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -6.2%

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.60
Prior 248.50
Revised n/a

 
Up a bit from very low levels.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 1254.00
Prior 1281.20
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods Orders (Oct)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -6.2%
Prior 0.8%
Revised -0.2%

 
Big fall.

Karim writes:

  • -6.2% m/m
  • -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.7%
Prior -2.5%
Revised n/a

 
Big fall in a longer term down trend.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.6%
Actual -4.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -2.3%

 
Not good either.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -1.8%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Income MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Income has held up better than expected.

And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.

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Personal Income YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower.

Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.

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Personal Income ALLX (Oct)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.

The consumer is recharging his batteries.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised 4.1%

 
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.

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PCE Core MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Oct)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.3%

 
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)

Survey 535K
Actual 529K
Prior 542K
Revised 543K

 
Remains very high.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
  • Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)

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Continuing Claims (Nov 15)

Survey 4080K
Actual 3962K
Prior 4012K
Revised 4016K

 
Off the highs but remain very high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)

Survey 57.5
Actual 55.3
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Back through the lows.

Karim writes:

  • New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
  • 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9

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New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey 441K
Actual 433K
Prior 464K
Revised 457K

 
Still sliding.

Karim writes:

  • -5% m/m
  • Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.00
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

 
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!

Falling sharply.

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New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey -5.0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 0.7%

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New Home Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -40.1%
Prior -34.1%
Revised n/a

 
Might be leveling off at very low levels.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 218.00
Prior 221.70
Revised n/a

 
Prices falling but not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)


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2008-11-06 USER


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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 4.3%
Revised 3.6%

 
Better than expected but slipping a bit.

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (3Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (3Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 3.6%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -0.1%

 
Worse than expected but still reasonable.

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (3Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1)

Survey 477K
Actual 481K
Prior 479K
Revised 485K

 
About at recession levels.

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Continuing Claims (Oct 25)

Survey 3743K
Actual 3843K
Prior 3715K
Revised 3721K

 
Also looking like recession levels.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 1)

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 4k to 481k, but prior week revised up 6k to 485k (4wk avg 477k)
    Real story is latest jump in continuing claims, from 3721k to 3843k (4wk avg 3754k)

  • Higher continuing claims tied to longer duration of unemployment and in turn lower wage pressures

  • Now look for payrolls to exceed -300k tomorrow; would be consistent with across the board weaker-than-expected data for past month.


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2008-09-25 USER


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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -4.5%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 0.8%

 
A very volatile series

Way lower than expected, and prior revised down as well.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.1%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Continuing its downward drift that started about a year ago.

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -3.0%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 0.1%

 
It wasn’t all transportation. This is also lower than expected, and the prior month revised lower.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.0%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

 
The jump in defense kept the total from being even worse.

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Durable Goods ALLX (Aug)

 
Consumer goods and defense, the only bright (modest) spots.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 20)

Survey 450K
Actual 493K
Prior 455K
Revised 461K

 
A large spike up. Government estimated 50,000 due to the hurricanes; so, it would have been 430,000. This will take a few weeks to sort out.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 13)

Survey 3510K
Actual 3542K
Prior 3478K
Revised 3479K

 
This just keeps going up towards recession levels. No telling how much extended benefits has added, both now and in the last recession.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 20)

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New Home Sales (Aug)

Survey 510K
Actual 460K
Prior 515K
Revised 520K

 
Lower than expected, and last month revised up as suspected. They’ve been revising previous months up for a while.

There may be a problem with availability of desirable homes, as starts are down by 1 million per year, and inventories are down as well.

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New Home Sales- Total For Sale (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 408.00
Prior 427.00
Revised n/a

 
This continues to fall rapidly and should lead to a shortage in the next few months.

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New Home Sales MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -11.5%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 4.0%

 
Lower than expected and prior month revised up.

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New Home Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -34.5%
Prior -34.7%
Revised n/a

 
Down a lot but signs of bottoming.

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New Home Sales Median Price (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 221.90K
Prior 234.90K
Revised n/a

 
Still drifting lower but so far not collapsing.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Aug)

 
Something happened in the west.

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Aug)

 
Karim writes:

  • Quite weak data that is leading to downward revisions to Q3 and Q4 GDP estimates. Q3 revisions about -½% that I have seen, some GDP estimates now coming in below 1%.

  • The shipments data is more highly correlated to current quarter growth.
  • -3.5% m/m headline, -2.1% ex-transport, -3.6% ex-defense.
  • Orders data more problematic for Q4.
  • -4.5% m/m headline, -3% ex-transport, -5% ex-defense.
  • Fairly broad-based weakness across sectors as well.

  • Capex had been holding up fairly well this year, but now looks as if retrenching; with private consumption likely to be weak and Bernanke signaling an export slowdown, not too many pillars of support left for the economy. Look for more fiscal stimulus and rate cuts.


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2008-09-18 USER


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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 13)

Survey 440K
Actual 445K
Prior 445K
Revised n/a

 
Staying at the top of the new range since the extended benefit package went into force. And might be a touch high due to the hurricane.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 6)

Survey 3525K
Actual 3478K
Prior 3525K
Revised 3533K

 
Down a bit and better than expected but still on the high side.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 13)

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Philadelphia Fed (Sep)

Survey -10.0
Actual 3.8
Prior -12.7
Revised n/a

 
Back to positive territory with an upside surprise.

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE (Sep)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Leading Indicators (Aug)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

 
Leading indicators down more than expected. This is largely a financial conditions indicator.

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Aug)

<

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 10k to new cycle of 455k but DOL states Gustav-related claims helped boost weekly rise.

  • 4wk avg rises to 445k from 440k.

  • Continuing claims fall 55k to 3478k, partially reversing prior weeks large 129k increase.

  • 4wk average of continuing rises from 3431k to 3461k.

  • Even if initial claims would have been lower ex-Gustav, recent trends in both IJC and CC reflect a faster pace of labor market deterioration.

  • Next month’s payrolls likely to be down more than 100k.


  • Activity index rises from -12.7 to 3.8.

  • Prices paid drop from 57.5 to 31.5.

  • Orders and shipments rise 17.5 and 5.9pts, respectively, both into modest positive position.

  • Employment component basically unch at -0.9.


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2008-09-04 USER


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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims jump 16k to 445k (4wk avg 439k from 444k)
  • Continuing claims rise 15k to 3435k (4wk avg 3400k from 3367k)
  • A correction from the impact of the extended benefits program would have seen initial claims drop to the 400-425k range (as was expected)
  • This increase and a new cycle high in continuing claims suggests some renewed labor market weakness and adds to downside risks to upcoming NFP reports
  • Unit labor costs for Q2 revised from unch to -0.5% and productivity from 3.5% to 4.3%. These numbers are volatile, but at the margin, the Fed will welcome these revisions as they relate to its inflation outlook.

Yes, and they also show that a share of the job losses were attributable to ‘efficiency gains’ rather than macro weakness (though the two are related) meaning economic potential is firming. This is the ‘classic benefit’ of a slowdown.

  • ISM Non-Mfg headline continues to meander around 50 (rises from 49.5 to 50.6)
  • Prices paid drops from 80.8 to 72.9; employment weakens further, from 47.1 to 45.4
  • Orders up 2 points, export orders down 3pts
  • Labor department official states claims data this week were a ‘clean read’, but that next week’s number will be effected by the Gustav evacuation
  • Trichet says Euro economy in an ‘episode of weak activity’ and that M3 data is overstating monetary expansion as credit growth is moderating. States ECB especially focused on wage growth, but when asked if he agrees with Board member Stark on seeing ‘broad-based’ second round effects, says only seeing ‘some second round effects’. Seems like ECB wants to see weak growth become entrenched and wage demands to moderate before entertaining rate cuts-i.e., unemployment needs to rise further.


US Economic Releases


ADP Employment Change (Aug)

Survey -30K
Actual -33K
Prior 9K
Revised 1K

 
Continuing its long, lazy trend lower, but not recession levels yet.

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ADP Employment Change MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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ADP TABLE 1 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 2 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 3 (Aug)

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ADP ALLX (Aug)

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Very high number. Shows the higher GDP is being sustained by fewer workers.

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Nice downtick. Domestic labor costs aren’t pushing up prices yet.

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Productivity TABLE 1 (2Q F)

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Productivity TABLE 2 (2Q F)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 30)

Survey 420K
Actual 444K
Prior 425K
Revised 429K

 
Keeps working its way higher after the extended benefit program was initiated, though the 4 week average is a touch lower.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 29)

Survey 3423K
Actual 3435K
Prior 3423K
Revised 3429K

 
Not looking good and also not sure how much this is influenced by the extended benefits program.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 30)

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Aug)

Survey 49.5
Actual 50.6
Prior 49.5
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

 
Employment and export orders down some, while prices paid still very high.

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ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Not great, but not falling apart.

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ICSC TABLE (Aug)


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2008-08-28 US Economic Releases


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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q P)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 3.3%
Prior 1.9% (2Q P); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized (2Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (2Q P)

Survey 1.1%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption (2Q P)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.5% (2QP); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1% (2Q P); 2.3% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 23)

Survey 425K
Actual 425K
Prior 432K
Revised 435K

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

Survey 3390K
Actual 3423K
Prior 3362K
Revised 3359K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 22)


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2008-08-21 US Economic Releases


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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

Survey 440K
Actual 432K
Prior 450K
Revised 445K

Still high, even though lower than expected and last week revised down some. It will take a while before the effect of the new extended benefit program is altering the numbers.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 9)

Survey 3405K
Actual 3362K
Prior 3417K
Revised 3379K

Also lower than expected and last week revised down, But still high and not showing any meaningful signs of a top.

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Jobless Claims TABLE 1 (Aug 16)

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Jobless Claims TABLE 2 (Aug 16)

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Philadelphia Fed (Aug)

Survey -12.6
Actual -12.7
Prior -16.3
Revised n/a

Still negative, but the rate of contraction seems to be declining.

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid down some, but still way high.

Employment improved to near flat.

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Aug)

Workweek creeping up some.

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Leading Indicators (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.1%
Revised 0.0%

Worse than expected. This is a domestic demand indicator that has been trending down for quite a while.

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Jul)

A lot of the specifics seem questionable regarding relevance.


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2008-08-14 US Economic Releases


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Consumer Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

Out of control, but if the recent commodity sell off holds headline will moderate some for awhile. Lots of pass-throughs and cost push forces in place.

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CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Jul)

Survey 5.1%
Actual 5.6%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

The Fed has to be concerned that the 2% FF rate is way too accommodative, especially with Q2 GDP no forecast at over 3% and Q3 looking like 2%.

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CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Jul)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.5%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

Could be headed much higher as cost push pass-throughs starting to register.

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CPI Core Index SA (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 216.230
Prior 215.526
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Jul)

Survey 219.075
Actual 219.964
Prior 218.815
Revised n/a

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CPI TABLE 1 (Jul)

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CPI TABLE 2 (Jul)

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CPI TABLE 3 (Jul)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 9)

Survey 435K
Actual 450K
Prior 455K
Revised 460K

Up, but confused by new extended benefits.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 2)

Survey 3310K
Actual 3417K
Prior 3311K
Revised 3303K

Not looking good either, but how bad can it actually be with GDP north of 3%?

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Jobless Claims TABLE 1 (Aug 9)

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Jobless Claims TABLE 2 (Aug 9)


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2008-08-07 US Economic Releases


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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 2)

Survey 425K
Actual 455K
Prior 448K
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 7k to new cycle high of 455k with 4wk moving avg up from 393k to 420k

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 3255K
Actual 3311K
Prior 3282K
Revised 3280K

Karim writes:

  • Continuing claims rise from 3280k to 3311k and 4wk moving avg up from 3174k to 3201k

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Jobless Claims TABLE 1 (Jul 26)

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Jobless Claims TABLE 2 (Jul 26)

Cesar writes:

A year ago we were at 4.7% unemployment rate (7,137 unemployed/ 153,182 labor force)

We are currently at 5.7% unemployment rate (8,784 unemployed/ 154,603 labor force)

Seems nearly the entire jump in unemployment is due to labor force increases.

Total employed is about flat.

In that case, GDP growth is about equal to productivity growth.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims somewhat distorted by new program to extend benefits where those filing extensions are considered first time filers (double counted); this should have an effect for the first 2-3 weeks of the program before initial claims fall back to trend level (same happened back in 2001). Last week was first week of program, so numbers for next 2 weeks should reflect underlying trend (last number before extension program was 403k). Of concern would be if numbers don’t fall back much.
  • This program does not effect continuing claims, which reflects ability to find a job once laid off. This is at a new cycle high.

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Jun)

Survey -1.0%
Actual 5.3%
Prior -4.7%
Revised -4.9%

Karim writes:

  • Rise 5.3% m/m, continuing recent see-saw pattern (-4.9%, +7.1% prior 2mths).

Q2 GDP for Japan and Germany are out next week. A German newspaper yesterday leaked German GDP growth likely to be -1 to -1.5%. Much of this is a giveback for a strong Q1 of +1.5% but definitely weaker than expected. Of concern to the ECB is that Spain (industrial production now down 10% y/y) and Italy already written off, so much depends on Germany. Moreover, German PMIs have gotten off to a very weak start for Q3. I imagine that was at the root of Trichet’s more dovish tone today.

Estimates for Japanese Q2 GDP are in the -1% to -3.5% range. The July Tankan and the foreign orders component of last night’s machinery orders data also don’t bode too well for Q3.

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.1%
Prior -14.8%
Revised n/a

Looks like it has bottomed and moving up as prices have adjusted and GDP has improved.

Housing my no longer be subtracting from GDP.

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Pending Home Sales Total SA (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 89.0
Prior 84.5
Revised n/a

Looks to have found support and probably bottomed albeit at very low levels.

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Pending Home Sales ALLX (Jun)

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ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Jul)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 4.3%
Revised 4.2%

Less then expected but not bad.

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ICSC TABLE 1 (Jul)

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ICSC TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Consumer Credit (Jun)

Survey $6.3B
Actual $14.3B
Prior $7.8B
Revised $8.1B

Volatile series. Moving up some to support higher levels of spending.

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Consumer Credit TABLE 1 (Jun)

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Consumer Credit TABLE 2 (Jun)

Note from the graph the improving position of the domestic sector as the government deficit and net exports rise and support domestic ‘savings’ and spending. The US budget deficit is expected to exceed 3% this year and exports should remain firm even with slowing foreign economies. In fact, that’s one of the primary reasons those economies are slowing.

U.S. June Consumer Credit Up $14.3 Billion, More Than Forecast

by Shobhana Chandra

(Bloomberg) U.S. consumers borrowed more than twice as much as economists forecast in June as the slump in real-estate prices prevented American homeowners from tapping into home-equity lines of credit.

Consumer credit rose by $14.3 billion, the most since November, to $2.59 trillion, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. In May, credit rose by $8.1 billion, previously reported as an increase of $7.8 billion. The Fed’s report doesn’t cover borrowing secured by real estate.

Consumers are using credit cards and loans to cover expenses as falling home values cause banks to restrict access to home- equity lines. The Bush administration sent out tax rebate checks in the past three months to help support spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

“Consumers are stressed, and some who are short of cash are relying more on credit cards,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at Merk Investments LLC in Palo Alto, California, said before the report.


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2008-07-31 US Economic Releases


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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.

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GDP Price Index (2Q A)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 2.6%

big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.

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GDP ALLX (2Q A)

From Cesar:

GDP:

  • grew 1.9% below expectations of 2.3%
  • rebates helped consumption grow 1.5% for 1.08% contribution to growth
  • net exports added 2.42% to growth
  • inventories were drag of 1.92%
  • residential investment was down -15.6% after declining 25.1% last month and the drag was “only” .62% after subtracting over 1% from GDP the last 3 quarters…
    housing drag on GDP will diminish as decline decelerates and housing shrinks as % of total GDP

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Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected but turning up.

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q A)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q A)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q A)

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Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

As expected

Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (2Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 393K
Actual 448K
Prior 406K
Revised 404K

Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.

4 week average approaching 400,000.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 19)

Survey 3150K
Actual 3282K
Prior 3107K
Revised 3097K

Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jul 26)

From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:

jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.8
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

Prices paid remains very high.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager ALLX (Jul)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul)

Survey 43.5
Actual 44.0
Prior 39.0
Revised n/a

Higher then expected.

Prices paid remain very high.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Jul)


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