Personal Income (Dec)
Survey |
0.4% |
Actual |
0.5% |
Prior |
0.4% |
Revised |
n/a |
Personal Income TABLE
A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.
Personal Spending (Dec)
Survey |
0.1% |
Actual |
0.2% |
Prior |
1.1% |
Revised |
1.0% |
Personal Spending TABLE
OK number after last month’s large increase.
Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.
PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)
Survey |
3.5% |
Actual |
3.5% |
Prior |
3.6% |
Revised |
n/a |
Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.
PCE Core MoM (Dec)
Survey |
0.2% |
Actual |
0.2% |
Prior |
0.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
Actual was 0.23%
PCE Core YoY (Dec)
Survey |
2.2% |
Actual |
2.2% |
Prior |
2.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.
Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)
Survey |
319K |
Actual |
375K |
Prior |
301K |
Revised |
306K |
Big jump up as expected by Karim.
4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).
Not yet the stuff of recession.
Continuing Claims (Jan 19)
Survey |
2685K |
Actual |
2716K |
Prior |
2672K |
Revised |
2669K |
Moved back up some.
Also not yet the stuff of recession.
Employment Cost Index (4Q)
Survey |
0.8% |
Actual |
0.8% |
Prior |
0.8% |
Revised |
n/a |
Employment Cost Index YoY
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
3.3% |
Prior |
3.3% |
Revised |
n/a |
As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)
Survey |
52.0 |
Actual |
51.5 |
Prior |
56.6 |
Revised |
56.4 |
Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.
Help Wanted Index (Dec)
Survey |
20 |
Actual |
22 |
Prior |
21 |
Revised |
n/a |
Very small uptick from a very low level.
NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
58.0 |
Prior |
62.0 |
Revised |
n/a |
No recession here, yet.
♥