Claims, ECI

From Karim:

  • True to the past 5yrs pattern, claims seem to be reverting to trend after the first few weeks of January.

Right, good call!

  • IJC climbed from 306k to 375k; the trend before the January drop was around 340-350k; this number was for MLK holiday week, so an adjustment issue here as well; bottom line is I think trend is still around 350k.
  • Continuing claims rose from 2685k to 2716k.
  • ECI (both headline and wage component) up 0.8% q/q

Data below is for Dec, so was largely known in yday’s GDP number.

  • Personal income up 0.5%, with wage and salary component up 0.4%
  • Core PCE up 0.2% m/m (2.2% y/y)

Most meaningful data here was continuing claims (little to no hiring taking place) and ECI (wage gwth still tame).

And Fed still looking at this as an indication of ‘inflation expectations’.