Tag Archives: Chicago Purchasing Manager

2009-04-30 USER

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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims -13k to 631k; continuing claims up another 133k (up every week this year) to 6271k
  • Suggests another 650-700k drop in payrolls and rise in ue rate from 8.5% to 9% for April employment report
  • Those numbers will in turn cause the data we received today on incomes and wages for March, to worsen from already historically weak levels.
  • Personal income -0.3% m/m and +0.3% y/y
  • Wage and salary component of income -0.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y (prior all-time low was -0.3% y/y)
  • Personal spending -0.2%. Q1 profile for real personal spending= +0.9% in Jan, +0.1% in Feb, and -0.2% in Mar. This will create a challenge for the PCE component of GDP for Q2.
  • ECI up 0.3% q/q and 2.1% y/y in Q1, both all-time lows
  • Chicago PMI for April up from 31.4 to 40.1
  • Looks like national ISM should bounce to about 39-40 tomorrow after 36.3
  • Fed comments yesterday seem to echo what I heard from ECB/BOE: Recent bounce in PMIs seem unrelated to prospects for recovery in late 2009/early 2010.

Personal Income MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.3%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Mar)

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Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

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PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.6%

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (1Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25)

Survey 640K
Actual 631K
Prior 640K
Revised 645K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 18)

Survey 6200K
Actual 6271K
Prior 6137K
Revised 6138K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 25)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey 35.0
Actual 40.1
Prior 31.4
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 39.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a


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2009-03-31 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.3%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Mar 31)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey 147.20
Actual 146.40
Prior 150.66
Revised 150.56

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jan)

Survey -18.60%
Actual -18.97%
Prior -18.55%
Revised -18.60%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.00
Revised n/a

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.55%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Mar)

Survey 34.3
Actual 31.4
Prior 34.2
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Survey 28.0
Actual 26.0
Prior 25.0
Revised 25.3

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Mar)

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NAPM Milwaukee (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 30.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a


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2009-02-27 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q P)

Survey -5.4%
Actual -6.2%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (4Q P)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -4.3%
Prior -3.5%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey 33.0
Actual 34.2
Prior 33.3
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey 32.0
Actual 29.0
Prior 33.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey 56.0
Actual 56.3
Prior 56.2
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb F)


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2009-01-30 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q A)

Survey -5.5%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

Better than expected at -3.8% due to inventory build.

Here is the GDP math:

Private consumption (-2.5%) + Business Fixed Investment (-3.1%) + Government (+0.4%) + Net Exports (+0.1%) + Chg in Inventories (+1.3%)

  • Real final sales of -5.1% were consistent with estimates.
  • Business sector overestimated domestic demand, thereby accounting for the inventory build (should reverse in Q1).
  • Core PCE deflator slowed from 2.4% to 0.6%.
  • Within investment, both housing (-23.6%) and equipment/software (-27.8%) were very weak.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey 0.4%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX 1 (4Q)

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GDP ALLX 2 (4Q)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.5%
Actual -3.5%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (4Q)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.59%
Prior -20.14%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 199.39
Prior 206.73
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey 34.9
Actual 33.3
Prior 34.1
Revised 35.1

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NAPM Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 33.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 61.2
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan F)


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2008-12-30 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Sinking.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Falling back, even with low fuel prices.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still way down.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still negative.

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (-)

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still heading south as foreclosures continue to take their toll.

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Remains very low.

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Consumer Confidence (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Not much to be confident about.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (-)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (-)


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2008-10-31 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.4%

 
A tick better than expected but last month revised down same.

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Personal Income YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be on the decline as expected.

Lower interest rates are also a drag on income, as households are net savers.

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Personal Income ALLX (Sep)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and took dive as the publicity around the credit crisis petrified businesses and consumers.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Heading south but still growing some.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Sep)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected and staying high even with commodities coming down.

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PCE Core MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (Sep)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Holding firm, at least for now.

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Employment Cost Index (3Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

 
Well contained.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (3Q)

 
The surveys have a large subjective component, and have all taken dives recently.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.96%
Prior -17.76%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 219.67
Prior 224.28
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Oct)

Survey 48.0
Actual 37.8
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 42.0
Prior 46.0
Revised n/a


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2008-09-30 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.10%
Prior 1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.20%
Prior -1.00%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.00%
Prior 1.20%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.20%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 30)

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jul)

Survey -16.00%
Actual -16.35%
Prior -15.92%
Revised -15.91%

 
Down year over year, but the rate of decline has slowed.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)

Survey 166.90
Actual 166.23
Prior 167.69
Revised 167.71

 
Decelerating rate of decline.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.88%
Prior -0.52%
Revised n/a

 
From this angle it looks like the declines have moderated and could soon be over as inventories shrink and incomes continue higher.

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Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Sep)

Survey 53.0
Actual 56.7
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and remaining above 50. Employment moved up to 49.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Sep)

 
Employment gapped up to 49?

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Sep)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 46.0
Prior 43.0
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and working its way out of the hole.

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Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Survey 55.0
Actual 59.8
Prior 56.9
Revised 58.5

 
Even this is moving up some though from very low levels, and as of September 23.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Sep)


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2008-08-29 US Economic Releases

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Personal Income MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Still at higher levels than before the rebates and far from a consumer collapse.

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Personal Income TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Personal Income TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look all that bad to me.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jul)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.1%
Revised 4.0%

This is not the kind of chart the Fed wants to see.

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PCE Core MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jul)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Neither is this.

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PCE ALLX 1 (Jul)

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PCE ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • Not much to alter Fed’s view or likely course with this data
  • Real PCE down -0.3% m/m for July, in line with expectations. Nominal PCE up 0.2%.
  • Personal income down 0.7%, again as expected, and due to drop in government transfers (fiscal package ended)
  • Core PCE deflator up 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. At Jackson Hole, Bernanke stated he expected inflation to ‘moderate later this year and next’, meaning he still sees a few more months of possible upward pressure.

Yes, and he has been saying he expects headline inflation to moderate at every speaking event for the last few years.

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 230.00
Prior 233.37
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.15%
Prior -15.60%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 57.9
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

Upside surprise here.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid still way high; big dip in employment.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Aug)

Karim writes:

  • Chicago PMI rises from 50.8 to 57.9; but orders and production components (each up sharply) at odds with employment component (down sharply), so report to be taken with a grain of salt.

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U of Michigan Confidence (Aug F)

Survey 62.0
Actual 63.0
Prior 61.7
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Final UMICH survey for August shows minor improvement in confidence (61.7 to 63.0) and no change in inflation expectations components.
  • ISM and payrolls next week to weigh more heavily

Confidence turning up with the rebates.

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U of Michigan Consumer Attitudes TABLE (Aug F)

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Aug F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.8%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

The Fed worries these will get embedded.

Personally, I don’t see inflation as a function of expectations but they do.

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Inflation Expectations 5yr Fwd (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Too high still.

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Aug)

Survey 44.0
Actual 43.0
Prior 44.0
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected but still off the bottom.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Aug)


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2008-07-31 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.

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GDP Price Index (2Q A)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 2.6%

big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.

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GDP ALLX (2Q A)

From Cesar:

GDP:

  • grew 1.9% below expectations of 2.3%
  • rebates helped consumption grow 1.5% for 1.08% contribution to growth
  • net exports added 2.42% to growth
  • inventories were drag of 1.92%
  • residential investment was down -15.6% after declining 25.1% last month and the drag was “only” .62% after subtracting over 1% from GDP the last 3 quarters…
    housing drag on GDP will diminish as decline decelerates and housing shrinks as % of total GDP

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Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected but turning up.

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q A)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q A)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q A)

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Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

As expected

Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (2Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 393K
Actual 448K
Prior 406K
Revised 404K

Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.

4 week average approaching 400,000.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 19)

Survey 3150K
Actual 3282K
Prior 3107K
Revised 3097K

Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jul 26)

From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:

jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.8
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

Prices paid remains very high.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager ALLX (Jul)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul)

Survey 43.5
Actual 44.0
Prior 39.0
Revised n/a

Higher then expected.

Prices paid remain very high.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Jul)


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2008-06-30 US Economic Releases

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jun)

Survey 48.0
Actual 49.6
Prior 49.1
Revised n/a

Better than expected.

Still on the soft side.

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Jun)

Survey 46.1
Actual 39.0
Prior 45.0
Revised n/a

Worse than expected.

GDP muddling through with the fiscal package supporting domestic demand as price pressures continue to escalate.


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