2009-04-28 USER


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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.7%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Apr 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.5%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Apr 28)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Feb)

Survey 142.80
Actual 143.17
Prior 146.40
Revised 146.35

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Feb)

Survey -18.70%
Actual -18.63%
Prior -18.97%
Revised -19.00%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.00
Revised n/a

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.55%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence (Apr)

Survey 29.7
Actual 39.2
Prior 26.0
Revised 26.9

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)

Survey -17
Actual -9
Prior -20
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey ALLX (Apr)


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2009-03-31 USER


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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.1%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.3%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Mar 31)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey 147.20
Actual 146.40
Prior 150.66
Revised 150.56

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jan)

Survey -18.60%
Actual -18.97%
Prior -18.55%
Revised -18.60%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.00
Revised n/a

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.55%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Mar)

Survey 34.3
Actual 31.4
Prior 34.2
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Survey 28.0
Actual 26.0
Prior 25.0
Revised 25.3

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Mar)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Mar)

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NAPM Milwaukee (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 30.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a


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2009-02-24 USER


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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.50%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 24)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.66
Prior 154.59
Revised 154.55

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Dec)

Survey -18.30%
Actual -18.55%
Prior -18.18%
Revised -18.20%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.04
Revised 150.00

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (4Q)

Survey -17.20%
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.60%
Revised -16.55%

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Consumer Confidence (Feb)

Survey 35.0
Actual 25.0
Prior 37.7
Revised 37.4

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Feb)

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House Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.7%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

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House Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.7%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index ALLX (Dec)

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (4Q)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -3.4%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

Survey -49
Actual -51
Prior -49
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Feb)


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2008-10-28 USER


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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Oct 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.30%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

 
Maybe rebounding some with lower gas prices?

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Oct. 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.50%
Prior -1.60%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Oct. 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior 0.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Oct. 28)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.10%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Oct. 28)

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Aug)

Survey -16.60%
Actual -16.62%
Prior -16.35%
Revised -16.32%

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 164.57
Prior 166.23
Revised 166.29

 
Still falling but at a slower rate

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -15.38%
Prior -14.22%
Revised n/a

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Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Aug)

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Consumer Confidence (Oct)

Survey 52.0
Actual 38.0
Prior 59.8
Revised 61.4

 
Major dip here.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)

Survey -23
Actual -26
Prior -18
Revised n/a

 
Also bad.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Oct)


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2008-09-30 USER


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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.10%
Prior 1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.20%
Prior -1.00%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.00%
Prior 1.20%
Revised n/a

 
Still positive but weak.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Sep 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.20%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 30)

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Jul)

Survey -16.00%
Actual -16.35%
Prior -15.92%
Revised -15.91%

 
Down year over year, but the rate of decline has slowed.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)

Survey 166.90
Actual 166.23
Prior 167.69
Revised 167.71

 
Decelerating rate of decline.

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.88%
Prior -0.52%
Revised n/a

 
From this angle it looks like the declines have moderated and could soon be over as inventories shrink and incomes continue higher.

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Case Shiller ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Case Shiller ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Sep)

Survey 53.0
Actual 56.7
Prior 57.9
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and remaining above 50. Employment moved up to 49.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Sep)

 
Employment gapped up to 49?

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Sep)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 46.0
Prior 43.0
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected and working its way out of the hole.

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Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Survey 55.0
Actual 59.8
Prior 56.9
Revised 58.5

 
Even this is moving up some though from very low levels, and as of September 23.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Sep)


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2008-07-29 US Economic Releases


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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Jul 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Jul 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

Still inching higher.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jul 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

No let up here yet either.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jul 29)

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S&P-Case Shiller Home Price Index (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 168.54
Prior 169.85
Revised 170.00

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S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (May)

Survey -16.00%
Actual -15.78%
Prior -15.30%
Revised -15.22%

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Case Shiller ALLX 1 (May)

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Case Shiller ALLX 2 (May)

Still declining but the rate of decline is quickly diminishing,

In line with other housing indicators that are appear to have bottomed.

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Consumer Confidence (Jul)

Survey 50.1
Actual 51.9
Prior 50.4
Revised 51.0

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Jul)

Survey
Actual
Prior
Revised

Karim writes:

  • Headline confidence rises from 51 to 51.9 (first gain since Dec)
  • Jobs Plentiful less jobs hard to get falls from -15.6 to -16.8 (new cycle low); with initial claims back above 400k now, payrolls on Friday have downside risk to -75k consensus. As important, increasing jobs hard to get is correlated to increasing duration of unemployment.
  • Plans to buy an auto fall to new cycle low of 5.0 from 5.1
  • Plans to buy a home increases from cycle low of 2.4 to 2.7
  • Plans to buy a major appliance fall to new cycle low of 27.7 from 28.3

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jul 27)

Survey
Actual
Prior -41
Revised

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ABC Consumer Confidence ALLX (Jul 27)


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