the mortgage foreclosure mess- just another financial crisis

The latest mortgage foreclosure mess is just another financial crisis.

It’s not a real economic crisis- no houses have been actually destroyed- no fire, hurricane, or earthquake damage, etc.

So the responses aren’t about bulldozers, hammers, concrete pouring, etc.

The question is whether this financial discovery/event spills over into the real economy.

The question is, are the authorities standing by with policy responses as needed to make sure people can still go to work to grow food and eat it, build houses and live in them, make shoes and wear them, go to hospitals and take care of sick people, go to schools and teach classes, maintain the infrastructure, do cancer research, etc. etc. etc?

Of course not. And therefore it all might again needlessly/tragically spill over to the real sector.

Just like in August 2008, we might again let a financial crisis spill over into the real economy and make today’s still very bad economy even worse.

As I said then, yes, it’s critically important to identify and punish the bad guys with a vengeance, alter incentives that support fraud, etc. etc. etc.

And it’s even more important to not let the financial crisis spill over into the real economy by letting aggregate demand fall, sales collapse, and jobs get lost.

And now, as then, interest rate cuts and just about anything else the Fed might do aren’t going to do the trick, and, then as now, will probably just make it worse.

Now, as then, as always, an immediate fiscal adjustment IS the silver bullet that restores demand.

Now, as then, a full payroll tax (FICA) suspension will immediately work to restore private sector aggregate demand, sales, and jobs. For the most part, private sector jobs are a function of sales, directly or indirectly. Capitalism is driven by sales. Businesses large and small compete for consumer dollars. But here has to be consumer dollars to compete for.

Public infrastructure spending works as well, but takes a while, so the answer is to do both. Suspend FICA taxes and put in place desired infrastructure project funding, presumably in a well thought out basis with an eye to efficiency, and not in a blind rush to support aggregate demand.

So why is our government not standing by to suspend FICA taxes?
Why haven’t they already done it?

Especially as It’s a highly regressive punishing tax on the people we need most and the people who are hurting the most- the people actually working for a living who produce all the real goods and services that support our existence.

Yes, it’s the first deadly innocent fraud at work- government thinks it needs those FICA revenues to be able to make Social Security payments.

Our Federal government officials do not understand the function of federal taxes is to regulate the economy, and not to raise revenue.

The don’t understand the function of federal taxes is to take dollars away from us, and not to give them what they need to spend.
Their first clue should be that if we were to pay our taxes with old $20 bills they’d give us a receipt and then shred them. But it isn’t.
(And removing what’s restricting aggregate demand is not getting something for nothing.)

Instead, the deficit terrorists are firmly in control.

The best we can expect is for them not to raise taxes at year end when the tax cuts expire. There is no talk of lowering taxes, under any circumstances.

Even from the media’s ‘deficit doves’ who remain THE problem, agreeing that the ‘long term deficits’ is a problem, pointing to interest rates as evidence markets currently are willing to fund deficit spending, and talking about how austerity now is not the way to bring down deficits longer term- in general, flagrantly violating ‘Lerner’s Law’ and conceding the principle to the deficit hawks.

So will this latest mortgage crisis hurt the real economy?
Probably not, best I can tell. Looks more to me like it’s a potential transfer of dollars from banks and lenders with no propensity to spend to borrowers with high propensity to spend.

But I could easily be wrong. There is the risk that events could result in a further cutback in credit to the real economy.

And while this potential drop in aggregate demand is easily offset by a simple fiscal response, the odds our current gaggle of regulators and elected officials getting it right with an appropriate fiscal response seem slim and none.

from Randy Wray

>   
>   From Professor Randall Wray:
>   
>   Here is one analysis; it will take you less than 5 minutes
>   to find many similar reports, many from people with expertise
>   on industry practice.
>   

Mortgage and Foreclosure Wrongdoing: Road Map for Investigating AGs

By Cynthia Kouril

September 26

Dear states attorneys general in Ohio, Texas, Florida and California (and to the rest of you as well):

Let me make it easy for you. It’s much easier to find the wrongdoing if you know where to look, so let me give you a generic road map:

1) The mortgage originator is the entity that met with homeowner (unless there was a mortgage broker involved) and actually did the mortgage transaction with the homeowner, a.k.a. “the closing.” The originator had the wet ink documents in its hands at some time.

In many cases the wet ink documents never left the originator. This creates a problem down the line because often the originators were small short-lived businesses. When businesses went belly-up holding all those wet ink original documents, where did the documents go? . . .

2) Immediately (by which I mean within a very few days, sometimes a very few hours) after the closing, the originator would resell the mortgage to a bigger bank. This would free up cash for the originator to make more origination next week. The originator would electronically scan a copy of the closing documents and email them to a data bank, most often that data bank was called MERS. In later iterations, some originators would upload the scans directly into the data bank.

3) If an assignment was done at all — and very often it was not — it would often be done in blank. That is to say, John Smith, President of Originating Firm would assign to _______. However, a blank assignment is like a check with the payee left blank; it becomes a bearer instrument (and for this reason a rather dangerous item). When it became known to what entity the mortgage should be assigned, John Smith (or his successor at Originating Firm) would be asked to do the assignment after the fact.

4) However, the originating mortgage company may have gone out of business before any assignments were done; who or what was left with legal authority to assign these mortgages, and where did the wet ink originals end up? I know anecdotally that these wet ink originals sometimes ended up going home with the laid-off workers of the mortgage companies. These people worried often that the documents would be destroyed if not kept safe and the lack of paper trail would cause the homeowners all kind of grief if they tried to sell their homes. In some cases, the laid-off mortgage company workers hoped to hold the documents hostage to collect back wages they were owed when the mortgage company failed.

5) All of this could have been avoided, of course, if the mortgages had been recorded in the county clerk’s office or land office, or in other governmental Torrens title system.

6) Sometimes the wet ink originals really were physically transferred to MERS, but MERS appears to have treated the physical files as unimportant because MERS and other electronic database services like it were intended to allow transfer of documents electronically, avoiding costly and time-consuming handling of paper documentation. When challenged to come up with wet ink originals, the electronic filing system has not always worked so smoothly.

7) The bank that thought it bought the mortgage from the originator (it paid money, but what did it actually get in return?) would enter into a “Pooling and Servicing Agreement” in order to create a Residential Mortgage Backed Security (RMBS). The purchasing bank, or another bank that it thought it sold the mortgage to, would become the “depositing bank” and deposit (or so it thought) the mortgage into a trust fund. Except that it didn’t actually have the mortgage to deposit.

8) The trust fund would have a set period during which it could accept deposits, after which the trust fund was “closed” and no additional mortgages could be deposited into it except as swap-outs for mortgages already in the trust. Any assignment of mortgage into the trust executed after the closing of the deposit period would be a legal nullity unless there was a swap with a mortgage already in the trust.

9) The assignments were rarely actually made in a timely fashion, and now it’s too late to do so. In addition the entities which could have made the assignments don’t necessarily even exist anymore.

10) The trustee assigned or sold the right to collect the payments to the “servicer” and the “investors” thereby splitting the interest in land from the debt (mortgage fractionalization). The servicer collects the money from the homeowner, takes its substantial cut and forwards the remainder to the investors. The investors thought they were getting A or better rated bonds and include municipalities, and pension funds.

11) When the foreclosure tsunami first began and the foreclosing banks had no original wet ink documents to prove that they had standing to foreclose, there was a wave of “lost note affidavits”. Judges at the front end of this crisis had no inkling that anything was amiss and relied upon those affidavits. After seeing reams of lost note affidavits, they began asking for better explanations.

12) That’s when the forgeries and perjuries began. There are all sorts of people signing all sorts of documents claiming to be officers of companies for which they do not work. Contact me and I can email you a list.

There are all sorts of signatures that don’t look at all alike, all with the same person’s name. In at least one instance the name of a person who was in jail at the time and not available to be working at the company appears on documents along with his purported signature.

Color scans of mortgage papers are being passed off as wet ink originals; you can see the color printer dot matrix under magnification. Documents are being backdated, which is really fun when you find out the notary was not yet a notary on the date shown on the documents.

13) Adding to the confusion, a bank may believe that it services or is trustee for, or has a particular mortgage in an RMBS solely because a mortgage is included on an inventory list attached to a pooling and servicing agreement. However, any given mortgage might be on the wrong list, either because there was a typo when preparing a list or because an unscrupulous originator “sold” the same loan twice, or a sloppy originator accidently put the same loan on two different lists. If the original wet ink originals had been physically transferred, we would be able to match up payments from the banks with the originals and figure out who owned what.

14) Lastly, depending on the law in your state, separating the interest in land from the right to receive payment — frationalization—may have extinguished the the right to foreclose and turned the mortgage debt into regular unsecured debt. Check out 55 Am. Jur. 2d, Mortgages § 1002

cross currents

I wasn’t sure whether to send this, as it reveals my lack of clarity on current events, but decided to send it to make the point.

Here’s what I see:

Markets are already discounting a large QE and are also discounting that QE actually makes a difference:

The dollar went down
Gold went up
Commodities went up
Interest rates fell
Stocks went up

So we have a big ‘buy the rumor sell the news’ leading up to the Fed meeting.

AND a potential ‘QE doesn’t work anyway’ let down.

I’ve never seen a more confused set of circumstances.
I recommend all traders stay out of this one.
Making money on this probably falls into the ‘better lucky than good’ category.

One of two things will happen- QE will or will not happen, data dependent

1. Good news for the economy means QE might not happen.

So the dollar reverses, and it went down for the wrong reason anyway, as QE fundamentally doesn’t alter the dollar, so it’s probably net short.

But how about the euro? It’s fundamentally strong with no end in sight, and good econ news helps them as much as anyone.
But an over sold dollar reversing can rally it against most everything while the unwinding goes on.

Stocks up, as that would be good news for stocks?
Or stocks down as rates go up and the dollar goes up, and the world goes to ‘risk off mode?’
(Stocks were helped by the weak dollar and lower rates.)

Is good econ news good or bad for gold? More demand in general is good, but less risk, less fear, and a strong dollar hurts. And it could be over bought in the QE craze as QE in fact has nothing to do with demand, currencies, or gold. It’s just a duration shift for net financial assets.

10 year notes? QE buying reverses and they go higher in yield.
But strong dollar and weak commodities and weak stocks and the Fed still failing on both mandates means low for long is still in place, even without QE.

It’s been strange enough that rates fell with a weak dollar (inflation) and rising commodities, so who knows what actually happens when whatever has been going on is faced with some combo of no QE and/or the realization that QE doesn’t do anything of consequence.

2. Bad news for the economy means QE happens.

Dollar keep falling? Or already discounted?
Gold and commodities keep rising? On bad econ news? And when already discounting QE working?
Stocks keep rising? On bad econ news? And already discounting QE working?

To a point, based on the presumption that QE actually works to add to domestic demand.
But has it already been discounted? And if markets believe QE works won’t they discount the Fed hiking after it works and the economy ‘takes off’???

The answer?

Don’t think of the medium term, just the short term.
Short term technicals will rule due to what’s been discounted.

The dollar is the pivot point, as it’s moved the most and for the wrong reason (except maybe vs the euro).

If nothing else, the dollar will appreciate if:

No QE due to good econ news
Buy the rumor sell the news/already been discounted forces
There is awareness that QE doesn’t do anything in any case
Foreign govt buying (currency war, etc.)

The dollar continues to fall if QE is larger than expected and the belief that it does something holds.

Recent economic news and Fed speak indicate that is not likely.

The other short term market moves will be reactions to the dollar move, and not so much reactions to what made the dollar move.

I do continue to like BMA forwards.
The one thing there is to be know is that high end marginal tax rates won’t go down, and that forward libor rates won’t fall below 50 bp.

ECB’s Weber Says Emergency Support Must Be Tied to Conditions

Confirming suspicions of what’s been happening somewhat behind the scenes.

They may even understand that as long as ECB support does not add to spending there is no inflationary effect.

ECB’s Weber Says Emergency Support Must Be Tied to Conditions

By Simone Meier and Rainer Buergin

October 15 (Bloomberg) — “A temporary financial support for member states should remain an option at best used only if there’s a clear, considerable contagion risk for the rest of the currency union and if, secondly, the use is tied to strict and painful conditions,” ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber said. Funds should be raised by individual member nations rather than through a joint measure such as Eurobonds, he said. “Measures for crisis management need to be tailored in a way that entails as little as possible distortion of incentives” for member states, Weber said. “That’s why it’s indispensable to credibly anchor the no-bailout principle.” Weber, who is also head of Germany’s Bundesbank, called for a system of “automatic sanctions” for countries breaching the region’s budget rules. It’s important not only to monitor countries’ shortfalls but also their debt, he said.

Now that claims didn’t fall…

Claims didn’t fall, they went up some.

So dollar still weak/commodities and stocks still moving up, and bonds only a touch off their recent highs.

With the large output gap and unit labor costs well contained, it can be said it’s not so much the dollar is weak but the other currencies strong, particularly the euro, where it looks like they are trying to force deflation with their austerity measures during a time of high unemployment. And the yen, too, is still struggling with deflation.

If I recall 1980 correctly silver has been lagging and ‘caught up’ with gold just before it all came apart? Silver peaked at maybe $60 while gold peaked at maybe $880?

The Reagan expansion that followed the end of the oil shock was not a good time for gold and silver.

And today they are going up for the ‘wrong’ reason- market participants believe and are shifting portfolios as if the Fed and other central banks were ‘printing money’ when they are not. And this can persist for a considerable period of time.

If initial claims fall again

If today’s initial claims fall again, indicating underlying employment improvement, there is a lot to think about.

The Fed might decide QE isn’t needed- yields back up due to the Fed not buying and the concern rates might not be low for all that long.
The low for long/QE 2 scenario is almost entirely based on employment showing no signs of life.

The dollar might suddenly reverse as short dollar positions that were placed due to qe2/low for long outlooks are reversed.

Messages more mixed for stocks and commodities.
Employment growth indicates more demand is possible.
But fears of money printing induced inflation (whatever that actually means doesn’t matter for short term trading) subside.
Dollar strength causes dollar prices of commodities to fall.
Commodity stocks hurt by falling prices, internationals hurt by rising dollar/earnings translations/falling export margins, etc.
Valuations hurt by higher term structure of rates.

Basically a partial unwinding of the massive qe2/low forever/weak dollar market of the recent past.

deficits vs corporate profits since 97

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Tue, Oct 12, 2010 at 11:31 PM, Michael wrote:
>   
>   Thought you might like this. There is a hugely strong relationship between deficit
>   spending and corporate profits 1 year later. This is corporate profits with a 1
>   year lag, regressed against Quarterly debt to GDP.
>   

Yes, the old Levy profit equation from the 30’s maybe!

>   
>   From 1970 on, this is a strong relationship, except for a few quarters around 1997.
>   I’ll follow with another chart in a minute.
>   
>   The Senate run is improving your visibility – plus I am seeing Chartalism everywhere
>   now. It used to be fringe, now many people use it as a given…
>   

Good to hear it, thanks!

Weber Says ECB Should Start to Phase Out Bond Purchases ‘Now’

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Tue, Oct 12, 2010 at 1:17 PM, Kevin wrote:
>   
>   Warren
>   
>   I am interested in your views on this development
>   
>   It would strike me as either blather or a dramatic reversal of fortune for
>   the continent
>   
>   Any thoughts?
>   

Weber has been against it from day one, which tells me he doesn’t get it at all. For now he’ll keep getting over ruled, but that can change down the road when ECB management turns over.

Yes, if this were to happen in this kind of economy it could all head catastrophically south very quickly again, and, as before, not end until the ECB resumes writing the check.

The problem is he doesn’t understand that inflation and currency weakness would follow from excess spending by the national govts, which is both not the case and under control of the ECB while they are funding. Instead he thinks the bond purchases per se somehow matter, though with no discernible transmission channel.

Weber Says ECB Should Phase Out Bond Purchases ‘Now

By Gabi Thesing and Christian Vits

October 12 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank Governing
Council member Axel Weber said the ECB should stop its bond-
purchase program and signaled that it’s time for officials to
show how they will withdraw other emergency measures.

“As the risks associated with the Securities Markets
Program outweigh its benefits,
these securities purchases should
now be phased out permanently,” Weber said, according to the
text of a speech delivered in New York today.

“As regards the two dimensions of exit consisting of
phasing-out non-standard liquidity measures and normalizing our
clearly expansionary monetary policy, there are risks both in
exiting too early and in exiting too late,” Weber said. “I
believe the latter are greater than the former.”

Weber’s comments are the strongest so far from any official
on how the ECB will withdraw its emergency stimulus measures.
They come as governments and banks in some euro nations such as
Ireland and Portugal struggle to convince investors about their
financial health and as other major central banks signal their
willingness to add more stimulus to their economies.

The remarks also come less than a week after ECB President
Jean-Claude Trichet’s last policy statement, when he declined to
comment on the timing of the ECB’s exit strategy.

The bond purchases were opposed by Weber when they were
started in May as part of a strategy to keep the euro region
together after the Greek crisis threatened to undermine the
currency. The ECB stepped up its bond purchases at the end of
September, buying 1.38 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in the week
to Oct. 1, as tensions reemerged in Portugal and Ireland.

Unfunded state and local pensions

Not to worry – as long as they keep full allocations to equity markets the coming doubling of equity prices over the next few years will bail them out.

Provided the political leadership doesn’t get too serious about federal govt deficit reduction with tax increases and spending cuts.

US Cities Face Half a Trillion Dollars of Pension Deficits

By Nicole Bullock

October 12 (FT) — Big US cities could be squeezed by unfunded public pensions as they and counties face a $574 billion funding gap, a study to be released on Tuesday shows.

The gap at the municipal level would be in addition to $3,000 billion in unfunded liabilities already estimated for state-run pensions, according to research from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and the University of Rochester.