Category Archives: Spain

euro zone issues

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Asian players are a worry for eurozone

By Gillian Tett

July 14 (FT)

The saga behind next week’s stress test release is a case in point. During most of the past year, governments of countries such as Germany, Spain and France have resisted the idea of conducting US-style stress tests on their banks, in spite of repeated, entreaties from entities ranging from the International Monetary Fund to the Bank for International Settlements, and the US government.


However, after a meeting of G20 leaders in Busan last month, those same eurozone governments performed a U-turn, by finally agreeing to publish the results of such tests.


Some observers have blamed the volte-face on lobbying inside the senior echelons of the European Central Bank. Others point the finger to American pressure. In particular, Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, had some strongly worded discussions with some of his eurozone counterparts in Busan, where he urged – if not lectured – them to adopt these tests.

However, Europeans who participated in the Busan meeting say it was actually comments from Asian officials that created a tipping point. In the days before and after that G20 gathering, eurozone officials met powerful Asian investment groups and government officials who expressed alarm about Europe’s financial woes. And while those officials did not plan to sell their existing stock of bonds, they specifically said they would reduce or halt future purchases of eurozone bonds unless something was done to allay the fears about Europe’s banks.

That, in turn, sparked a sudden change of heart among officials in places such as Germany and Spain. After all, as one European official notes, the last thing that any debt-laden European government wants now is a situation where it is tough to sell bonds. “It was the Asians that changed the mood, not anything Geithner said,” says one eurozone official.

This raises some fascinating short-term issues about how the bond markets might respond to the stress tests. It is impossible to track bond purchase patterns with any precision in a timely manner in Europe, since there is no central source of consolidated data.

However, bankers say there are signs that Asian investors are returning to buy eurozone bonds. This week, for example, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange bid for €1bn (£1.27bn, £835m) of Spanish bonds, helping to produce a very successful auction.

Yes, it’s a two edged sword.

Asian nations want to accumulate euro net financial assets to facilitate exports to the euro zone.

Before the crisis euro nations were concerned that the strong euro, partially due to Asian buying, was hurting euro zone exports

However, as the crisis developed, euro nations got to the point where they were concerned enough about national govt solvency and the precipitous fall of the euro (which was in some ways welcomed by exporters but worrying with regards to a potential inflationary collapse) to agree to measures to support their national govt debt sales which also meant a stronger euro.

So now the pendulum is swinging the other way. Solvency issues have been sufficiently resolved by the ECB to avert default, but at the ‘cost’ of a resumption Asian buying designed to strengthen the euro to support Asian exports to the euro zone.

As before the crisis, however, the euro zone has no tools to keep a lid on the euro (apart from re introducing the solvency issue to scare away buyers, which makes no sense), as buying dollars and other fx is counter to their ideology of having the euro be the world’s reserve currency.

So the same forces remain in place that drove the euro to the 150-160 range, which kept net exports from climbing.

The export driven model is problematic enough without adding in the additionally problematic idiosyncratic financial structure of the euro zone.

As for the stress tests, as long as the ECB is funding bank liabilities and buying national govt debt banks and the national govts can continue to fund themselves with or without Asian buying.

I’d have to say at this point in time the euro zone hasn’t gotten that far in their understanding of their monetary system or they probably would not be making concessions to outside forces.

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ECB’s Trichet Says European Economy Showing ‘Encouraging’ Signs

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The ECB has ‘written the check’ by buying national govt bonds in the secondary market in sufficient size to allow the national govs to fund themselves, and equities are coming back as solvency fears abate.

There is still solvency risk, but now that risk is the risk of the ECB cutting off any nation in question.

And with exports firming the same forces are causing the currency to strengthen to the point where net exports remain relatively stable.

The ECB is also in full control of the banking system liquidity, as it too is dependent on ECB funding, and dictates terms and conditions there as well, where there need be no failures (even a bank with negative capital can be sustained by liquidity provision) unless the ECB decides to let a bank fail.

EU Headlines:

ECB’s Trichet Says European Economy Showing ‘Encouraging’ Signs

Trichet dismisses fears over eurozone

Trichet Says European Capacity to Decide Always Underestimated

Trichet Says Bond Market Developments ‘Going in Right Direction’

Trichet Calls for ‘Appropriate’ Action on Stress Tests

Banks Will Need More Cash After Stress Tests

EU ‘Stress’ Tests Shrouded in Secrecy

EU Commission’s Barroso Says Bank Stress Tests Are ‘Credible’

ECB’s Bini Smaghi Says Greece Must Maintain Consolidation Effort

Bini Smaghi Says Market Rate Increase Won’t Affect Bank Loans

Stark Says ECB’s Monetary Analysis Enforces Discipline

Annual German Inflation Slows in June to 0.9 Per Cent

German Upper House Approves Naked Short-Selling Ban

French Manufacturing Rose in May, Lifted by Exports, Car Output

Italian Production Climbs as Weak Euro, Recovery Lifts Exports

Spain to allow cajas to sell 50% of equity

Greece Approves Austerity Plan Amid Outcry

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EU Daily- The EU is on a financially sustainable path

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Still looks like the strategy for Europe could be functionally very close to my proposal, and fiscally sustainable if they continue on the current path.

This is just inference on my part- I have no information other than what I’ve read online.

The ‘distributions’ the ECB will make will be via buying enough national govt debt in the secondary markets to keep the national govs solvent and able to fund their deficits, at least in the short term markets.

If they determine any member nation is not complying to their liking, they will start threatening to stop buying their debt, thereby isolating them from the ECB credit umbrella, while allowing the remaining nations to remain solvent.

ECB spending on anything is not (operationally) revenue constrained as the member nations are, so this policy is nominally sustainable.

The austerity measures will result in lower growth, and maybe even negative growth, but the solvency issue is gone as long as this policy is followed.

With currency strength and inflation ultimately a function of fiscal balance, the fundamental forces in place that drove the euro to 1.60 vs the dollar remain in place, while the mechanism to remove the default risk that drove the portfolio shifts that weakened the euro is in place.

While restructuring risk remains, it need not be forced by solvency risk. So restructuring need not happen.

Power has shifted to the ECB, presumably under substantial influence of the national govt finance ministers, as the ECB directly or indirectly moves to fund the entire banking system and national govt. deficits.

This is an institutional structure that is fully sustainable financially, with the economic outcome a function the size of the national govt. deficits they allow.

The conflict will remain the money interests in Europe who put currency strength as a priority, vs the exporters who favor currency weakness.

The consensus will be that unions and wages in general must be controlled.

Again, I do not know for sure that the ECB is actually moving in this direction.
They may not be.

Watch closely to see if the buying of national govt. securities remains sufficient to keep the national govts solvent.

(Feel free to distribute)

HEADLINES:

Europe Rebound Stalls in June on Market Strains, Eurocoin Shows
Barroso Says European Leaders Want to Keep Euro ‘Very Strong’
Schaeuble Says Europe Will Meet Deficit Targets, Corriere Says
Merkel faces test in vote for president
Berlin hints at move on pay deal ruling
Germany Trims 3rd-Quarter Debt Sales, Plans Bigger Cuts in 4th
Germany Faces Shortage of Skilled Workers in 2025, Study Says
French Economy Slowed to a Crawl in First Quarter of 2010
French Jobless Claims Increase as Companies Trim Workforces
Lagarde Says Pension Reform Is Priority, Sees AAA Rating Safe
Confindustria Raises Italian GDP Growth Forecast on Euro Drop
Spanish May Producer Prices Advance Most in 19 Months on Oil
Spain May Cut 426-Euro Unemployment Subsidy, Cinco Dias Reports
Greek optimistic on budget deficit reduction

ARTICLES:

Europe Rebound Stalls in June on Market Strains, Eurocoin Shows

(Bloomberg) The euro-area economic recovery stalled in June for a third month amid financial-market “strains.” The Eurocoin index measuring economic expansion in the 16 nations that share the single currency fell to 0.46 percent from 0.55 percent in May, the Center for Economic Policy Research and the Bank of Italy, which co-produce the index, said in a statement. “Recent strains in the financial markets have affected the performance of the indicator,” according to the statement. The index “has however been supported by the new improvement in foreign trade.” The index, which includes business and consumer confidence readings, industrial production, price figures and stock-market performance, aims to provide a real-time estimate of economic growth, according to the report.

Barroso Says European Leaders Want to Keep Euro ‘Very Strong’

June 25 (Bloomberg) — European Commission President Jose Barroso said the region’s leaders are determined to keep the euro a “very strong” currency.

“I have no doubts of the absolute determination of European Union leaders and European Union institutions to keep the euro as a very strong and stable currency,” Barroso said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Toronto, where he is attending a meeting of leaders from Group of 20 countries.

Against the U.S. dollar, the euro has fallen 19 percent since its Nov. 25 high, trading yesterday at $1.2279 after reaching a four-year low of $1.1877 on June 7.

The 16-nation currency’s “real effective exchange rate has lost close to 10 percent” since its peak in October, the European Commission, the EU executive, said yesterday in its quarterly assessment of the euro-region economy.

The continent’s economic “fundamentals” are good, and Europe’s debt and deficits are smaller than some of its “main partners,” Barroso said, adding investors have been reassured by an almost $1 trillion plan by the euro nations and the International Monetary Fund to backstop the sovereign debt of the region’s weakest members.

It’s “a very important message of confidence that is being conveyed to markets as well,” Barroso said.

Barroso also said that China’s plan to provide more currency flexibility was a “move in the right direction” that increases confidence in the global economy.

Earlier yesterday, Barroso said that exit strategies from fiscal stimulus programs should be gradual, differentiated and “growth-friendly.”

Schaeuble Says Europe Will Meet Deficit Targets, Corriere Says

June 25 (Bloomberg) — German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he has “no doubt” that European governments will hold to their commitments to cut public deficits, Corriere della Sera reported, citing an interview.

“Too-high deficits have to be responsibly reduced,”

Corriere quoted Schaeuble as saying. “We have a shared agreement, and I have no doubt that all will abide by their commitments.”

Merkel faces test in vote for president

(FT) The presidential election – in a specially constituted federal assembly – represents the biggest challenge for Angela Merkel since she formed a government in October combining her own Christian Democratic Union with the liberal Free Democratic party. The combined popularity of the coalition parties has since dropped from 48.4 per cent to 35 per cent, according to a poll published by Stern magazine and the RTL television network. The proportion of voters saying they would vote again for Ms Merkel as chancellor has also dropped to just 39 per cent, her lowest rating for more than three years, according to a Forsa institute poll. Political scientists believe that if Christian Wulff, Ms Merkel’s candidate for the presidency, were to lose the vote on Wednesday to Joachim Gauck, the non-party candidate supported by the SPD and Greens, it could force the resignation of both the chancellor and her government.

Berlin hints at move on pay deal ruling

(FT) The German government on Thursday signalled it was considering legislation to quell protests from both company chiefs and worker representatives over a court ruling that threatens the way they agree wage deals. Judges in Erfurt, eastern Germany, on Wednesday ended a 50-year-old practice of extending in-house wage deals made between an employer and its biggest union to cover all workers in the company doing similar jobs. The judges agreed with a doctor at a hospital in Mannheim who had demanded he be paid according to the national pay deal of the doctors’ union, not the in-house deal agreed by services union Verdi. They said in their verdict that established wage-bargaining practices contravened the right of citizens freely to form alliances. There was no “basic principle” forcing a company “to adopt a uniform wage deal”, they declared.

Germany Trims 3rd-Quarter Debt Sales, Plans Bigger Cuts in 4th

(Bloomberg) Germany will sell 77 billion euros ($94.5 billion) of bonds and bills in the third quarter, 2 billion euros less than forecast in December. A larger adjustment will come in the fourth quarter, assuming the economy stays steady, a finance ministry official said. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has pledged to cut net new borrowing by the end of the year. A federal issuance calendar released in December said gross debt sales this year would be a record 343 billion euros ($421.5 billion). The third-quarter debt issuance includes 44 billion euros of bonds and 33 billion euros of bills. Schauble’s ministry said on June 22 that the so-called structural budget deficit will be 53.2 billion euros this year, 13.4 billion euros less than the 66.6 billion euros originally expected. It also said then that net new borrowing this year will be 15 billion euros below the 80.2 billion euros in the 2010 budget plan.

Germany Faces Shortage of Skilled Workers in 2025, Study Says

June 25 (Bloomberg) — Germany faces a shortage of skilled workers in 2025 as the population is shrinking, the Federal Labor Agency’s research institute said.

Due to demographic reasons the size of the German workforce will constantly decrease until 2025 while the number of employed in the services industry may rise by more than 1.5 million, the institute said in a study published yesterday.

By contrast, the number of employees in the manufacturing industry may fall by almost 1 million over the next 15 years, the study said.

German unemployment fell more than twice as much as economists forecast in May as exports from Europe’s biggest economy surged, bolstering the recovery. The number of people out of work declined a seasonally adjusted 45,000 to 3.25 million, the lowest since December 2008, the Labor Agency said June 1.

French Economy Slowed to a Crawl in First Quarter of 2010

Paris (dpa) — The French economy slowed alarmingly in the first quarter of 2010, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by only 0.1 per cent, the government’s statistics office Insee said Friday.

The primary reason for the poor result was a drop of 0.2 per cent in domestic demand, compared to an increase of 0.5 per cent in the last quarter of 2009, when GDP rose by 0.6 per cent.

This was the second bit of bad economic news for the government in less than 24 hours. Late Thursday, the Labour Ministry said that the rolls of unemployed had grown by some 22,600 in May, the largest rise in unemployment since the beginning of the year.

Some 2.7 million people were out of work at the end of May, an unemployment rate of 9.5 per cent.

French Jobless Claims Increase as Companies Trim Workforces

(Bloomberg) The number of jobseekers in France climbed in May as manufacturers trimmed payrolls in the wake of the country’s worst recession in more than half a century. The number of unemployed actively looking for work rose by 22,600 last month, an increase of 0.8 percent, the Labor and Finance Ministries said. The total number of jobseekers was 2.7 million. While claims have risen every month this year except in March, national statistics office Insee predicts the economy is about to begin creating jobs again for the first time in two years. “Total employment fell heavily in 2009, dragged down by the drop in activity,” Insee said late yesterday. “It should progress slightly over 2010 as a whole.”

Lagarde Says Pension Reform Is Priority, Sees AAA Rating Safe

June 25 (Bloomberg) — France’s plan to lift its retirement age is a signal to investors about the seriousness of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s intention to cut the budget deficit, Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said.

“The priority is to protect the retirement system,”

Lagarde said today on France Inter radio. “We are also trying to send a message of security to the markets.”

Sarkozy’s government set out proposals last week to raise the minimum age at which workers can tap the state pension to 62 in 2018 from 60 currently. The age at which full benefits are reaped is to rise to 67 from 65 under the plan, which labor unions protested yesterday.

France is the only country among Europe’s five biggest economies not to have presented a detailed savings plan for next year. Britain set out deficit-cutting measures totaling 113 billion pounds ($167 billion) earlier this week and Germany announced cuts of 81.6 billion euros ($101 billion) on June 7.

Sarkozy has committed to reducing the deficit from 8 percent of gross domestic product this year to 6 percent in 2011 and 3 percent in 2013.

Lagarde said “there’s no reason to think” that France’s AAA credit rating is threatened, though she said the country doesn’t have the luxury of time to debate the pension overhaul.

“We have time pressure, it’s not possible to delay,”

Lagarde said. “The public finance situation doesn’t allow for it. We need to take measures quickly.”

Sarkozy and Lagarde join leaders and finance ministers of the Group of Eight later today in Huntsville, Ontario, before meeting their Group of 20 counterparts tomorrow in Toronto.

Confindustria Raises Italian GDP Growth Forecast on Euro Drop

(Bloomberg) Italian gross domestic product will expand 1.2 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2010, up from previous forecasts of 1.1 percent and 1.3 percent respectively, Confindustria said. The single currency’s 14 percent slide against the dollar this year will “more than offset” the impact of budget cuts worth 24.9 billion euros, which will shave 0.4 percentage points of GDP in 2011 and 2012, Confindustria said. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s deficit-curbing measures aim to reduce the budget deficit by an additional 1.6 percent of GDP, bringing the shortfall within the EU limit of 3 percent of GDP in 2012 from 5.3 percent last year.

Spanish May Producer Prices Advance Most in 19 Months on Oil

June 25 (Bloomberg) — Spanish producer-price inflation accelerated to the fastest in 19 months in May as higher oil prices boosted energy costs.

Prices of goods leaving Spain’s factories, mines and refineries rose 3.8 percent from a year earlier after a 3.7 percent increase in April, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today. That’s the biggest increase since October 2008. From the previous month, prices gained 0.2 percent.

Crude-oil prices rose 8 percent in the 12 months to the end of May, pushing up manufacturers’ costs. Still, with the economy continuing to shrink and the unemployment rate at 20 percent, consumer-price inflation remains restrained. Spain’s underlying inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, turned negative in April for the first time on record.

The government forecasts the economy will contract 0.3 percent this year.

Spain May Cut 426-Euro Unemployment Subsidy, Cinco Dias Reports

June 25 (Bloomberg) — Spain’s Labor Minister Celestino Corbacho may cut a 426 euro-a-month ($525) subsidy paid to the unemployed whose two-year, contributions-based jobless benefit has run out, Cinco Dias reported.

The subsidy, which cost the state 1.2 billion euros since it was introduced last year, will be difficult to maintain after August as Spain tries to cut its deficit, the newspaper reported, citing an interview with Corbacho.

Greek optimistic on budget deficit reduction

(AP) Greece’s finance minister on Thursday voiced confidence that the country will meet or even surpass its ambitious targets to slash spending and boost revenues by the end of the year. “Have we won the bet? No,” George Papaconstantinou said. “But we have well-founded hopes and are optimistic that, for the first time in many years, at the end of the year the state budget will achieve or even exceed the targets we have set.” Papaconstantinou said his optimism was based on figures showing a 40 percent deficit reduction during the first five months of the year, as well an expected revenue boost from increased consumer taxes. On Friday the cabinet is set to approve a key draft law on pension and labor reforms. The government says the current pension system is not viable, and if left unchanged would come to absorb 24 percent of GDP in 2050, from the current 12 percent.

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Clegg Says U.K. Deficit Cuts Intended to Avert ‘Market Panic’

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Just in case you thought the new Deputy Prime Minister knows anything about monetary operations.

To avoid the non existent probability of becoming the next Greece they can take action to increase the real probability they become the next Japan:

Clegg Says U.K. Deficit Cuts Intended to Avert ‘Market Panic’

June 24 (Bloomberg) — Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said the U.K. could have been the next victim of a “market panic” sweeping Europe if the government had not raised valued-added tax.

Defending Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne’s June 22 decision to raise the tax to 20 percent from 17.5 percent, which Clegg’s Liberal Democrats had campaigned against during for last month’s election, the deputy prime minister said the government faces a “black hole” in the public finances that is “even bigger than we thought.”

“The truth is that the world had changed very dramatically in recent weeks,” Clegg told BBC News today. “We’ve got this sort of economic firestorm on our doorstep in Europe, where the markets are putting huge pressure on one country after the next, knocking on the door in Greece, in Spain, in Portgual, and so on.”

“There’s a real worry that if we don’t take action now, that we will be the next victim, if you like, of that kind of market panic,” he said.

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Estonia adopts the euro

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We still contend that the world’s economic analysts do not understand the problem with the EMU mechanism, namely that there is no central fiscal authority that is allowed to credit accounts in an unlimited fashion. If you have doubts, please read the article below.

I mentioned when Estonia announced entry three weeks ago that if any sovereign really understood that they were giving up true ability to simply supply all the credits necessary in local currency, versus now having to tax or borrow before you spend (like municipalities), Estonia would not enter.

And please read the underlined portion of the article below. They still position the Euro mechanism weakness as “no policy fits all” or “there is no authority to distribute EU wide tax revenues collected”, or “there is no political union”. It all misses the point.

The U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia and UK do not borrow money. They drain excess reserves by issuing government securities so we can earn interest. Remember, when Japan allowed 30trn of excess reserves by not issuing government securities, the bill auctions were 200 times oversubscribed, even though the bills yielded only 2 or 3bps.

The mechanism is not fixed, the governments have limited resources for obligations, unless they allow the ECB or some other fiscal authority to have unlimited ability to credit accounts.

Thanks, Cliff

Agreed.

They also seem to equate a strong euro with economic prosperity.

What Crisis? The Euro Zone Adds Estonia

June 18 (NYT) —Guess what? The funniest thing happened in Europe on Thursday. A new country joined (yes, joined) the euro zone. And the mood here was upbeat.

With a debt crisis that appears to be spreading from Greece to Spain, membership for the country, Estonia, might seem more curse than blessing. There had been speculation that countries might abandon the single currency. And some doubt Estonia is even ready for the move.

“Maintaining low inflation rates in Estonia will be very challenging,” the European Central Bank warned last month.

Still, the euro remains among the strongest currencies in the world, and membership opens the door to a club with global influence. For small and unsure countries on the fringes of the European Union, it doesn’t get much better — no matter the mounting downsides for countries already on the inside.

“Joining the euro is a status issue for countries seeking to cement their position at Europe’s top table,” said Simon Tilford, the chief economist for the Center for European Reform, a research organization based in London. “But you also could call it sheer bloody-mindedness of Estonia to join now with the outlook for the currency so uncertain.”

Meeting in Brussels, Europe’s 27 governments hailed the “sound economic and financial policies” that had been achieved by Estonia in recent years. They said Estonia would shift from the kroon to the euro on Jan. 1, 2011.

For the leaders of the bloc, expanding the euro zone to 17 nations is tantamount to a show of confidence at an inauspicious time for the battered euro, which has lost about 13 percent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year.

“The door to euro membership is not closed because we are going through a sovereign debt crisis,” said Amadeu Altafaj, a spokesman for Olli Rehn, Europe’s commissioner for economic and monetary affairs. “Estonia’s admission is a sign to other countries that our aim is to continue enlarging economic and monetary union through the euro.”

With economic output of about $17 billion, the Estonian economy is tiny. Yet the country’s central bank governor, Andres Lipstok, will now be able to take a seat on the European Central Bank’s powerful council that sets interest rates.

Membership is also an important signpost that a country is on the way to achieving Western European standards of living, an important goal for a former Soviet republic like Estonia that has long been among the Baltic states eager to develop.

Perhaps most important, membership is recognition of the hard work and sacrifice it took to keep Estonia’s bid on track.

Estonia, along with Sweden, were the two countries with the smallest shortfalls between revenue and spending among all members of the 27-member European Union. Moreover, public debt in Estonia at 7.2 percent of gross domestic product is tiny compared with that of most other countries in the bloc.

“It’s a great day for Estonia,” Andrus Ansip, the Estonian prime minister, told Latvian state radio in an interview here.

“We prefer to be inside, to join the club, to be among decision makers.”

Estonia becomes the third ex-Communist state to make the switch to the euro, after Slovenia and Slovakia, but it is the first former Soviet republic to do so, sending a signal to other countries in Central and Eastern Europe that they, too, can aspire to membership.

That said, the euro zone is not expected to expand further for some time to come as other candidates like the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania and Poland still fall short of the entry criteria partly because of their large budget deficits.

And the accession of Estonia will do little to erase the chief criticism of the euro project: that Europe’s nations are too economically disparate to maintain supranational institutions like a single currency in the long term.

Price stability is one of the main criteria for admission to the euro club. But in the past, political leaders have brushed off concerns from the European Central Bank about candidate nations in their eagerness to expand the euro zone.

Greece won admission even after the central bank reported in 2000 that the country’s debt equaled 104 percent of gross domestic product, far above the limit of 60 percent set out in the Maastricht Treaty. The bank said that Greek inflation met targets only because of declines in oil prices and other exceptional factors.

According to economists, the preparation to join the euro zone created some disadvantages for Estonia compared with neighboring countries, which have enjoyed a relative degree of flexibility by hanging on longer to their legacy currencies for now.

Now that Estonia is joining the euro zone, the most immediate advantages are likely to include greater interest from foreign investors and lower borrowing costs for both the public and private sectors.

But those could be short-term advantages. Estonia and its export-driven economy could be quickly overshadowed by financial difficulties, particularly if the euro zone remains unstable and if neighboring countries like Poland and its Baltic neighbors insist on hanging on to their currencies.

“Investors will only be willing to lend to Estonia on favorable terms if Estonia can continue to compete,” said Mr.

Tilford, the London economist. “That is where the biggest risks for Estonia now lie.”

And there is another downside, Mr. Ansip, the Estonian prime minister, said in the radio interview.

“Our banknotes are more beautiful than euro banknotes,” he said.

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EU

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The same forces are at work that have limited net exports via a stronger euro over the last 10 years.


Europe Industrial Output Rises More Than Forecast

ECB’s Nowotny Says Euro Volatility Is ’Completely Unproblematic’

German Tax Income Rises as Euro Aids Exports, Handelsblatt Says

Goodhart Says He Doesn’t See Inflation Danger in Eurozone

French and Germans Most Exposed in Euro Debt Crisis

EU Says No Financial Aid Plan Being Prepared for Spain

EU President Says Euro Hid ‘Underlying Problems,’ FT Reports

Nowotny Says ECB to Buy Government Bonds Until Market Calms

ECB’s Orphanides Doesn’t View High Inflation as Concern, DJ Says

Spain Considers Raising Top Rate of Income Tax, Gaceta Says
Greece’s Economic Figures Under Inspection by IMF, EU

Europe Industrial Output Rises More Than Forecast

By Simone Meier

June 14 (Bloomberg) — European industrial production increased more than economists forecast in April, led by demand
for intermediate goods such as steel and car engines.

Output in the economy of the 16 nations using the euro rose 0.8 percent from March, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had projected a gain of 0.5 percent, the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. From a year earlier, April production jumped 9.5 percent, the biggest gain since the data started in 1991.

Reviving exports are helping to fuel the euro-area economy’s expansion as consumers curb spending. Continental AG, Europe’s second-largest car-parts maker, on June 10 raised its full-year sales forecast. Still, European manufacturing growth slowed in May and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week that the euro region may expand at an “uneven pace” this year.

“The recovery in the export-sensitive industrial sector has been little affected so far by the region’s fiscal woes,” said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. “Euro-zone industry should continue to benefit from the recovery in global demand, helped by the recent weakening of the euro.”

The 16-nation currency has fallen 15 percent against the dollar this year on concern governments’ measures to tackle swollen budget deficits may hamper economic growth in the region. The euro was little changed after the output data, trading at $1.2238 at 10:26 a.m. in London, up 1 percent.

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CNBC Video

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Not my first choice of topic, but what they wanted me to discuss.

Currency movements are nearly impossible to accurately forecast due to continuous cross currents.

The overly flattering intro was a pleasant surprise that caught me out for a moment.
And I’ll shamelessly use it selectively to advance the cause.

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Sat, Jun 12, 2010 at 10:09 AM, wrote:
>   
>   great…every exposure counts…….question on Euro call to 1.5-1.6 area
>   

Remember this is not ‘trading advice.’ In fact, the charts still look terrible so the portfolio shifting may be further from over than I suspect. It is a statement that the forces that brought the euro to those levels not long ago are still in place, though recently overpowered by the portfolio shifting.

>   
>   my understanding of what you’ve said previously is that the deflationary
>   measures to be followed by Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland would
>   bring about even lower growth in euro block and result in increasing strains
>   on the political union with the possibility of the euro group breaking apart
>   in some fashion with a continuing decline of the currency. Is this correct?
>   

yes.

>   
>   What are you saying now?..thanks
>   

Those same deflationary forces that scare some people out of the currency also make the currency more valuable.

Note that Japan hasn’t done particularly well yet the yen is a very strong currency.

Also, sometimes a nation growing rapidly has ‘automatic stabilizers’ in place that automatically increase tax collections and reduce transfer payments as growing private sector credit expansion fuels the growth. That can firm up a currency as well, as it also attracts equity type portfolio managers due to the growth environment.

Always lots of cross currents!

The eurozone deficits had seemed to have gotten maybe high enough to stabilize growth just as market forces shut down any thoughts of continued fiscal relaxation.

Those higher deficits softened the currency some and then fear took over with the default risk pushing the euro down further and gold up as well, also out of pure fear.

The euro then went low enough to apparently firm up exports, which also tends to firm up the currency.

Tightening up fiscally now puts a lid on growth and even threatens negative growth. The fledgling export recovery will work to shut itself down via euro appreciation with dollar buying-off balance sheet deficit spending and what would at least ‘make the numbers work’- prohibited ideologically.

And with their current monetary arrangements there isn’t much they can do except sit there and suffer the consequences of those arrangements.

The only bright sign is that the ECB may be sneaking towards interest rate targeting for the member nations outstanding debt, which can go a long way towards alleviating fears of credit risk for the national govts. But to do that the ECB has to be buying without notional limits, so it’s too soon to say that’s what’s happening.

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Pretty much all bad:

European Unemployment Unexpectedly Increases to 12-Year High

Trichet Says Fiscal Sustainability Fosters Confidence, Growth

By that he means the austerity measures/deficit cutting which only makes things worse.

Trichet Says ECB ‘Fiercely Independent,’ Stable Prices Mandate

Just doing his job.

Trichet sees need for ‘budgetary federation’

He’s sees this as a watchdog to keep deficits down.

Trichet Says ECB Won’t Tolerate Budget Indiscipline Any Longer

He’s concerned about the secondary mkt purchases of greek debt meaning even this very modest support is in question.

ECB’s Noyer Says Rating Firms Aggravating Crisis

Weber Says ECB Bond Purchases Musn’t Exceed ‘Tight Limits’

More talk on limiting ECB purchases.

ECB’s Stark Says Bank May Start Withdrawing Liquidity in July

Doesn’t matter but indicates their attitude.

Nowotny Sees No Risk of Double-Dip Recession due to Austerity

That’s the entire source of the risk of a double dip recession.

Bank of Italy: EU euro defense package can’t last

And calls for a return to the 3% deficit limits.

ECB: Banks Will Suffer Considerable Loan Losses In 2010, 2011

Bank deposits are insured only by the national govts that are already seeing their funding threatened.

ECB warns of ‘hazardous contagion’

True, but they have their channels totally confused.

Trichet Says Second-Quarter Growth May Be Better Than Expected

European Manufacturing Growth Slowed More Than Estimated in May

Germans, ECB Spar Over Bond Plan

After Debt Crisis, New Tension Between ECB, Germany

Survey suggests Germans are unhappy with Merkel

Merkel Says Budget Deficit Looks ‘Moderate’ Versus Spain, U.K.

Still doesn’t get how the UK comp isn’t applicable.

Hypo Real Estate gets more loan guarantees

Spain presses for labor market reform deal

Fitch downgrades Spain’s credit rating

European Loans Post First Annual Increase in Eight Months

German Unemployment Falls Twice as Much as Forecast

German Retail Sales Rose in April on Declining Unemployment

French New Car Sales Fall 12% in May, After 12 Monthly Gains

Italian Unemployment Climbs as Recovery Fails to Create Jobs

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Spanish banking issues

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The end game is unfortunately unfolding as Spanish bank losses become Spanish govt losses.

Deposit insurance is only credible at the ‘Federal’ level, not the ‘State’ level.

If the ECB had to write the check the issue would be inflation, but not solvency.

The euro govts can no more fund bank losses than the US States could cover bank losses.

And the euro zone response of spending cuts and tax increases only makes matters worse.

From inception, the euro system has been exactly this kind of accident waiting to happen.

CajaSur Seizure Marks Change for Spain’s Ailing Banks

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EU Daily | Trichet remains confident in ECB plan

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The euro zone is standing on the deflation pedal hard enough to turn the euro northward when the portfolio adjustments have run their course, which could be relatively soon.

And the indications of growing exports are more evidence the currency could bottom and start to appreciate.

Like Japan, when relative prices get to where exports pick up it causes the foreign sector to get short (net borrowed) in that currency, which tends to cause the currency to appreciate to the point exports fall off.

The ‘answer’ is to buy dollars as Japan did for many years, and China continues to do. And note how strong the yen got after Japan stopped buying dollars- strong enough to keep a lid on exports. But the euro zone ideology won’t allow the ECB to buy dollars should the euro start to appreciate, as that would give the appearance of the euro backing the dollar.

So right now a euro strong enough to slow exports would be highly problematic for a continent already in the midst of a deflationary spiral with its fiscal authority, the ECB, forbidden to offer the needed fundamental support.

The price of gold in euro could be the indicator of this turn of events. The portfolio shifting has driven up that gold price, and a downturn could be the indication that the portfolio shifting is getting played out.

But for you traders out there- I wouldn’t be early or try to call the precise bottom of the euro.

There’s no telling how much more portfolio shifting lies ahead.

Trichet remains confident in ECB plan
Trichet Says Greek Situation Resembled Lehman Collapse
Trichet: economy in deepest crisis since WWII
Stark Says ECB Measures ‘Only Bought Time’
Weber Says Crisis Response Must ‘Respect’ Policy Divisions
Stark Shares Weber’s View on ECB Bond Purchases, FAS Reports
ECB’s Nowotny Says Euro’s Drop of ‘No Specific Concern’
Lagarde Says Greek Debt Restructuring Isn’t an Option, FAZ Says
Berlin calls for eurozone budget laws
Schaeuble Has Plan to Stabilize Euro
Papandreou Says Greece Is a Good Investment, Handelsblatt Says
Spain puts labour reform on agenda
Italy to Make Extraordinaray Spending Cuts, Minister Says
April EU car sales fall as cash-for-clunkers fades

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