Text of Greek Deal

As before, this is in fact another statement that indicates no checks are to be written.

The purpose is probably the hope that it be read as a statement of support which will facilitate continued funding of Greek debt.

It is a clear statement that no funding is available until Greece fails to find funding elsewhere. However, understood but unstated, is that the process of finding funding is necessarily that of price discovery. Greece, like all borrowers, simply offers securities at ever higher rates until it finds the needed buyers. Failure, in theory, is defined as the rate reaching infinity with no buyers. At that time, the euro members would step in with a loan offer at a non concessional rate which would then presumably be infinity.

This makes no sense at all, of course. The statement is in fact a statement that Greece must first drive rates to infinity before euro zone member loans are available. In other words, it’s a statement that says Greece is on its own, and that they will stand by without taking action as observers of the standard market default process of Greek funding rates going into double and then triple digits as happens to all failed borrowers of externally managed currencies, including nations with fixed exchange rates.

“In this context, Euro area member states reaffirm their
willingness to take determined and coordinated action, if
needed,
to safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a
whole, as decided the 11th of February.

As part of a package involving substantial International
Monetary Fund financing and a majority of European financing,
Euro area member states, are ready to contribute to coordinated
bilateral loans.

This mechanism, complementing International Monetary Fund
financing, has to be considered ultima ratio, meaning in
particular that market financing is insufficient.
Any
disbursement on the bilateral loans would be decided by the euro
area member states by unanimity subject to strong conditionality
and based on an assessment by the European Commission and the
European Central Bank. We expect Euro-Member states to
participate on the basis of their respective ECB capital key.

The objective of this mechanism will not be to provide
financing at average euro area interest rates, but to set
incentives to return to market financing as soon as possible by
risk adequate pricing. Interest rates will be non-concessional,
i.e. not contain any subsidy element. Decisions under this
mechanism will be taken in full consistency with the Treaty
framework and national laws.”

yet more on greece

Gets stranger by the day:

Broke? Buy a few warships, France tells Greece

March 23 (Economic Times) — In a bizarre twist to the Greek debt crisis, France and Germany are pressing Greece to buy their gunboats and warplanes, even as they urge it to
cut public spending and curb its deficit.


Indeed, some Greek officials privately say Paris and Berlin are using the crisis as leverage to advance arms contracts or settle payment disputes, just when the Greeks are trying to reduce defense spending.

“No one is saying ‘Buy our warships or we won’t bail you out’, but the clear implication is that they will be more supportive if we do what they want on the armaments front,” said an adviser to Prime Minister George Papandreou, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity.

Greece spends more of its gross domestic product on the military than any other European Union country, largely due to long-standing tension with its neighbour, historic rival and NATO ally, Turkey.

“The Germans and the French have them over a barrel now,” said Nick Witney, a former head of the European Defense Agency.

“If you are trying to repair Greek public finances, it’s a ludicrous way to go about things.”

France is pushing to sell six frigates, 15 helicopters and up to 40 top-of-the-range Rafale fighter aircraft.

Greek and French officials said President Nicolas Sarkozy was personally involved and had broached the matter when Papandreou visited France last month to seek support in the financial crisis.

FRIGATE PURCHASE

The Greeks were so sensitive to Sarkozy’s concerns that they announced on the day Papandreou went to Paris that they would go ahead with buying six Fremm frigates worth 2.5 billion euros ($3.38 billion), despite their budget woes.

The ships are made by the state-controlled shipyard DCNS, which is a quarter owned by defense electronics group Thales and may have to lay workers off in the downturn.

Greece is also in talks buy 15 French Super Puma search-and-rescue helicopters made by aerospace giant EADS for an estimated 400 million euros.

The Rafale, made by Dassault Aviation, is a more distant and vastly dearer prospect. There is no published price, but each costs over $100 million, plus weapons.

Germany is meanwhile pressing Athens to pay for a diesel-electric submarine from ThyssenKrupp, of which it refused to take delivery in 2006 because the craft listed during sea trials following a disputed refurbishment in Kiel.

Payment would clear the way for ThyssenKrupp to sell its loss-making Greek unit Hellenic Shipyards, the biggest shipbuilder in the eastern Mediterranean, to Abu Dhabi MAR, industry sources said.

ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems last year canceled a Greek order for four other submarines over the dispute, in which it said Athens’ arrears exceeded 520 million euros.

Witney, now at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said German officials were embittered by Greek behavior in the long-running dispute, as well as previous payment problems over the purchase of German Leopard II tanks.

Greek Deputy Defense Minister Panos Beglitis told Reuters the dispute was on the brink of settlement but denied the timing had anything to do with Athens’ bid to clinch German backing this week for a financial safety net for Greek debt.

“(The submarine) Papanicolis has been carefully inspected by German and Greek experts. It has been greatly improved and declared seaworthy. We will take it, sell it and make a profit,” he said in an interview.

“We are paying 300 million (euros) and we will sell it for 350 million,” Beglitis said. Witney questioned Greece’s chances of turning a profit on a second-hand submarine.

NO LINKAGE?

Asked whether big European suppliers were using the crisis to press arms sales on Athens, he said: “This has always been the case with these countries. It is not because of the crisis, there is no link.”

Beglitis said this year’s defense budget was set at 2.8 per cent of GDP, down from 3.1 per cent in 2009. Non-government sources say the real level of military spending may be higher.

“Our strategy is continuously and steadily to reduce spending. This is also in line with the Greek stability and growth program,” Beglitis said. The program, submitted to the EU, pledges to reduce the budget deficit from 12.9 per cent last year to below 3 per cent by the end of 2012.

Western officials and economists have advocated a radical reduction of the armed forces as a long-term way of reducing structural spending, but Greek officials say that would require a real improvement in relations with Turkey.

Despite warmer ties, the two countries remain in dispute over Cyprus and maritime boundaries and have sporadic aerial incidents over the Aegean Sea.

French economist Jacques Delpla said Greece could reap big savings if it moved jointly with Turkey and Cyprus to settle disputes in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean and engaged in mutual disarmament.

“Unlike Portugal or Ireland, Greece could benefit from significant peace dividends to reduce its titanic fiscal deficits,” he said.

Euro finance ministers to agree on Greek aid: source

Without an interest rate and a credible quantity pledged, the agreement is grossly deficient.

The way Greece obtains funding is by offering ever higher rates until there is a taker.

So let’s say they offer securities at 5%, then 6, then 7, then 10, then 15, then 20 with no takers. How high do they go before they tell the EU group they have failed to obtain funding?
And then what rate does the EU charge them if they agree?

The process makes no sense.

The way to do it is for the EU group to offer funding at some rate, giving Greece some amount of time to try to find a better rate.

Euro finance ministers to agree on Greek aid: source

By Jan Strupczewski

March 13 (Reuters) — Euro zone finance ministers are likely to agree on Monday on a mechanism for aiding Greece financially, if it is required, but will leave out any sums until Athens asks for them, an EU source said on Saturday.

Policymakers have been debating possible financial support for the heavily-indebted European Union member state for more than a month, but have provided only words of support. Germany, key to any deal, has resisted appeals to promise aid.

British newspaper The Guardian on Saturday quoted sources as saying Monday’s meeting of the currency zone’s 16 finance ministers would agree to make aid of up to 25 billion euros available.

But a senior EU source with knowledge of preparations for Monday’s meeting told Reuters no numbers were likely at this stage.

“I think we should be able to agree on principles of a euro area facility for coordinated assistance. The European Commission and the Eurogroup task force would have the mandate to finalize the work,” the source said.

“It would be the principles and parameters of a facility or mechanism, which then could be activated if needed and requested.

He said no figure had been agreed.

“You would have a framework mechanism and you would have blank spaces for the numbers because there has been no request (from Greece) yet,” the source said.

Greece has announced steps to reduce its budget deficit this year to 8.7 percent of GDP from 12.7 percent in 2009, triggering street protests and strikes but also reducing market concern over whether the country would be able to service its debt.

That helped Athens sell its bonds with ease on debt markets earlier this month, but policymakers are still searching for ways of making its cost of borrowing — still far above that of other Europeans — more sustainable.

They are also concerned that the problems in Greece could undermine confidence in the euro and spread to other heavily indebted eurozone countries such as Portugal or Spain.

CUTBACKS

The EU source said that among the instruments considered to help Greece were both bilateral loans and loan guarantees.

“The preparations have been done under the Eurogroup by member states and the Commission. The Commission has done much of the technical work,” the source said.

“The aim of the exercise so far has been to do the technical preparations, so that the political decision could be possible on Monday. Germany holds the key at the moment.”

Polls show that public opinion in Europe’s biggest economy Germany is strongly opposed to bailing out Greece, which has for years provided unreliable statistics about the true size of its deficit and debt, breaking EU budget rules.

In a move that is likely to alleviate German concerns about spending money on Greece, the Commission has said it would soon make a proposal for stronger economic cooperation between euro zone countries and tighter surveillance of their performance.

French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde told the Wall Street Journal she believed Greece’s austerity moves were behind the improvement in its situation on markets and negated the need for a bailout.

“”There is no such thing as a bailout plan which would have been approved, agreed or otherwise, because there is no need for such a thing,” she said.

But she added that “technical experts” at the EU have been working on a contingency plan, so that if the need arose “all we would have to do is press the button.”

The Guardian quoted a senior official at the European, the EU executive, official as saying the euro zone members had agreed on “coordinated bilateral contributions” in the form of loans or loan guarantees if Athens was unable to refinance its debts and called on the EU for help.

The agreement has been tailored to avoid breaking the rules governing the operation of the euro currency which bar a bailout for a country on the brink of bankruptcy, and to avoid a challenge by Germany’s supreme court, the official said.

A German ministry spokesman said he could not believe the newspaper’s report on the bailout plan was correct.

“We are not aware that this is being planned,” he said, adding that Greece had not requested any aid. “Greece is implementing its (savings) program and we expect that it will manage it alone.”

(Additional reporting by Tim Pearce in London, Pete Harrison in Brussels and Volker Warkentin in Berlin, Writing by Sarah Marsh and Jan Strupczewski; Editing by Patrick Graham)

The Eurozone Solution For Greece Is A Very “Clever Bluff”?

The Eurozone Solution For Greece Is A Very “Clever Bluff”?

The Guardian is today reporting that, after weeks of crisis, the Eurozone has agreed to what appears to be a multibillion-euro assistance package for Greece that will be finalized on Monday. Member states have apparently agreed on “coordinated bilateral contributions” in the form of loans or loan guarantees to Greece, but only if Athens finds that it is unable to refinance its soaring debt and asks for help. Other sources said the aid could total €25bn (£22.6bn) to meet funding needs estimated in European capitals that Greece could need up to €55bn by the end of this year.

Once again, however, since funding is a function of interest rates, this proposal has the appearance of a very “clever bluff”. It says nothing about how high interest rates for Greece would have to go before the Greek government is somehow declared unable to refinance, and asks for additional help. The member nations probably structured the loan package and terms this way hoping to try to draw in lenders who would rely on this member nation as a back stop when making their investment decisions. However, if this ploy fails, Greek rates will go sky high in an attempt to refinance, and as Greece asks for more help, the spike in rates will make it all the more difficult for the entire Eurozone monetary system to function. Additionally, the prerequisite austerity measures will subtract aggregate demand in Greece and the rest of the Eurozone, and, to some extent, the rest of the world as well.

I have a very different proposal. It is designed to be fair to all, and not a relief package for any one member nation. It is also designed to not add nor subtract from aggregate demand, and also provide an effective enforcement tool for any measures the Eurozone wishes to introduce.

My proposal is for the ECB to distribute 1 trillion euro annually to the national governments on a per capita basis. The per capita criteria means that it is neither a targeted bailout nor a reward for bad behavior. This distribution would immediately adjust national government debt ratios downward which eases credit fears without triggering additional national government spending. This serves to dramatically ease credit tensions and thereby foster normal functioning of the credit markets for the national government debt issues.

The 1 trillion euro distribution would not add to aggregate demand or inflation, as member nation spending and tax policy are in any case restricted by the Maastricht criteria. Furthermore, making this distribution an annual event greatly enhances enforcement of EU rules, as the penalty for non compliance can be the withholding of annual payments. This is vastly more effective than the current arrangement of fines and penalties for non compliance, which have proven themselves unenforceable as a practical matter.

There are no operational obstacles to the crediting of the accounts of the national governments by the ECB. What would likely be required is approval by the finance ministers. I see no reason why any would object, as this proposal serves to both reduce national debt levels of all member nations and at the same time tighten the control of the European Union over national government finances.

EU Should Create Euro-Area Monetary Fund

They already have one that can deal with it operationally.
It’s called the ECB.

And my annual per capita distribution of 5% of GDP to the member nations remains the only viable, sustainable solution I’ve seen.

EU Should Create Euro-Area Monetary Fund, Sweden’s Borg Says

By Johan Carlstrom

March 9 (Bloomberg) — The European Union should consider
creating a body similar to the International Monetary Fund to
help distressed euro-area members and sharpen fiscal discipline
in the bloc, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg said.

“It’s good if we get an organization that can more
concretely help countries with financial problems,” Borg said
at the office of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt in Stockholm
today. “Most important, of course, is that we tighten the rules
to make sure that euro countries that are misbehaving cease to
do so.”

The European Commission, the EU executive in Brussels,
yesterday said it’s drawing up plans for a lender of last resort,
or a European Monetary Fund, as leaders try to draw lessons from
the Greek fiscal crisis. Borg said the EU also needs to find
ways to enforce more rigorously the Stability and Growth Pact
rules, which stipulate budget deficits shouldn’t exceed 3
percent of gross domestic product.

If budget rules are breached, the EU needs to consider
imposing “sanctions,” Borg said.

Marking a potential split among EU leaders, French Finance
Minister Christine Lagarde said an EMF may not be the best way
to support fiscally distressed countries. Consideration
shouldn’t be “limited to a European Monetary Fund,” Lagarde
said today. “Other ideas need to be studied and those that
respect the Lisbon treaty are much preferable.”

Eurozone buying time

Looks like behind the scenes they may be getting their banks to fund Greece and, by extension, any other national govt. this which will buy time, though longer term it depreciates the currency, which they may want to happen as well.

As long as the banks can carry their eurozone bonds at par and book the interest as earnings and fund themselves based on implied govt guarantees there is no operational limit to how long they can continue.

The limits would be the extent to which the banking laws restrict this practice, and the political tolerance for any inflation that may get imported through the fx window should the euro continue to fall.

The other problem is the downward pressure on aggregate demand of the prerequisite ‘fiscal consolidation’ is likely to result in increased social unrest as living conditions further deteriorate.

And this could be accelerated if the fiscal consolidation were to include reductions of transfer payments.

EU Daily | Europe’s Recovery Almost Stalls as Investment Drops

Not a good time for Greece and others to be cutting agg demand with
spending cuts and tax hikes, but that’s what the euro’s institutional structure ‘demands.’

The risk is this fiscal constraint employed to reduce national deficits will further reduce demand, which causes revenues to fall further and transfer payments to increase further, resulting in even larger deficits, etc.

But nothing will change unless things get bad enough, which obviously they are not.

EU Headlines:

Europe’s Recovery Almost Stalls as Investment Drops

German Machine Orders Fell in January on Weak Domestic Demand

EU Says Competitiveness of Greek Economy Down ‘Substantially’

French Unemployment Rate Increases as Companies Trim Payrolls

ECB likely to extend lending unlimited funds at fixed

At least part of the ECB has repeatedly shown they do understand monetary operations and that it’s about price and not quantity.

Subject: RTRS-ECB LIKELY TO EXTEND LENDING UNLIMITED FUNDS AT FIXED

RTRS-ECB LIKELY TO EXTEND LENDING UNLIMITED FUNDS AT FIXED
RATES INTO START OF Q3 AT MARCH MEETING-EURO ZONE MONETARY
SOURCES
RTRS-SOME AT ECB CONCERNED ABOUT KEEPING LONGER-TERM OPS AT
FIXED RATES FOR TOO LONG- EURO ZONE C.BANK SOURCES
RTRS-IMPORTANT TO PROVIDE INSTRUMENTS TO COVER 12-MONTH TENDER
MATURING ON JULY 1

on the back of above headlines
-curve steepening back, 2bps move
-front end bid
-pers better bid (Greece 5bps move)

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

The markets are likely to force some entity to write a check:

EU Headlines:

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

Provopoulos Confident Greece Will Meet ‘Very Ambitious’ Goals

Euro Worst to Come as Greece Hammerlocks ECB on Rates

German Recovery ‘Prone to Setbacks,’ Finance Ministry Says

French Lawmaker Warns Sarkozy Against Hasty Support for Greece

Five Percent of German Taxpayers Generate 42% of Income Tax

Debt Deals Haunt Europe

Greece Said to Have Arranged Swaps With 15 Banks

Greece looks at tougher budget cuts

Greek PM rules out bailout but urges EU solidarity

EU Says There Is No Plan to Bail Out Greece

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — The European Union said there is no plan to bail out Greece.

“There is no such a plan,” EU spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels today. “This is a speculative scenario at this point in time.”

“I was reading the papers when I also realized that in fact that there is no such a plan,” Altafaj said. “I think that the extraordinary summit and the Ecofin said all that had to be said on this and there has never been such a request from the Greek authorities and that remains the case.”

quick thought on the euro

The 100 day moving average of the dollar index has started moving up, and the 200 day isn’t far behind.

This means futures based and other trend followers will start piling in, depending on their
system parameters. With the dollar index 57.6% euro this will but serious downward pressure on the euro for purely technical reasons.

questions:

Where do euribor swaps get priced if euribor settings cease?
Are there default provisions to deal with this possibility?