EU stance shifts on Greece default

Mosler bonds issued to both address current funding requirements and buy back discounted Greek govt debt would further enhance the credit worthiness of those bonds by further and substantially reducing Greek govt interest expense.

Interesting how the word now coming out on the French plan, which initially was greeted with a near celebration, is now entirely negative to the point where it’s being dismissed.

And default discussions now moving to the front burner is telling, as just last week that was proclaimed ‘out of the question’

EU stance shifts on Greece default

By Peter Spiegel and Patrick Jenkins

July 10 (FT) — European leaders are for the first time prepared to accept that Athens should default on some of its bonds as part of a new bail-out plan for Greece that would put the country’s overall debt levels on a sustainable footing.

The new strategy, to be discussed at a Brussels meeting of eurozone finance ministers on Monday, could also include new concessions by Greece’s European lenders to reduce Athens’ debt, such as further lowering interest rates on bail-out loans and a broad-based bond buyback programme. It also marks the possible abandonment of a French-backed plan for banks to roll-over their Greek debt.

“The basic goal is to reduce the debt burden of Greece both through actions of the private sector and the public sector,” said one senior European official involved in negotiations.

Officials cautioned the new tack was still in the early stages, and final details were not expected until late summer. But if the strategy were agreed, it would mark a significant shift in the 18-month struggle to contain the eurozone debt crisis.

Until now, European leaders have been reluctant to back any plan categorised as a default for fear it could lead to a flight by investors from all bonds issued by peripheral eurozone countries – including Italy and Spain, the eurozone’s third and fourth largest economies.

Yields on Italian bonds, which move inversely to prices, rose sharply last week due to the Greek uncertainty. Senior European leaders – including Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank chief, and Jean-Claude Junker, head of the euro group – are to meet top European Union officials ahead of Monday’s finance ministers’ gathering amidst growing fears of contagion.

A German-led group of creditor countries has for weeks been attempting to get “voluntary” help from private bondholders to delay repayment of Greek bonds, a move they hoped would lower Greece’s overall debt while avoiding a default.

But in recent days, debt rating agencies warned any attempt to get bondholders to participate would represent a selective default. Rather than abandon bondholder buy-ins, however, several European leaders have decided to return to a German-backed plan to push current Greek debt holders to swap their holdings for new, longer-maturing bonds.

The move essentially scraps a French proposal unveiled last month, which many analysts believed would only add to Greek debt levels by offering expensive incentives for banks that hold Greek debt to roll over their maturing bonds.

Officials said the Institute of International Finance, the group representing large banks holding Greek debt, has gradually moved away from the French plan and begun to embrace elements of the German plan.

“There’s some convergence in the banking community towards a more realistic plan than the French plan, which was out of this world,” said the senior European official. The plan criticised as being self-serving for the banks.

According to executives involved in the IIF talks, banks have pushed for a Greek bond buyback plan in return for agreeing to a restructuring programme, arguing that only if Greece’s overall debt were reduced could a sustainable recovery occur.

European officials said there was support for the proposal in government circles. The plan, originally pushed by German investors, including Deutsche Bank, could see as much as 10 per cent of outstanding Greek debt repurchased on the open market.

Since Greek bonds are currently trading below face value, such purchases would essentially be a voluntary “haircut”, since bondholders would accept payment for far less than the bonds are worth.

It remains unclear how a buyback would be financed, however. The European Commission has long pushed for the eurozone’s €440bn bail-out fund to be used for buybacks, but Berlin blocked the proposal.

ECB Seeks Expansion of Euro-Rescue Fund to Help Italy, Welt Says

Wonder what that does to the remaining contributing nations balance sheets?

Not good, and increases the likelihood of Italy getting seriously tested.

:(

ECB Seeks Expansion of Euro-Rescue Fund to Help Italy, Welt Says

By Karin Matussek

July 10 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank is seeking to have the euro-rescue fund expanded to include help for Italy, Die Welt reported, citing unidentified “high ranking” people at central banks.

The fund may have to be doubled to 1.5 trillion euros($2.14 trillion) to cover a crisis in Italy, the ECB said according to the German newspaper.

Central banks are no longer ready to buy government debt, so the rescue fund should take on that task instead, according to the bankers, Die Welt said preview of an article for tomorrow’s edition.

France reports record trade gap in May

The overall trade picture continues to appear to be ‘deteriorating’ and could be removing fundamental support for the euro.

Yes, German net exports remain firm, but it’s the euro zone as a whole that drives the value of the euro.

And higher prices for imported energy could be hurting the euro zone more than the US, as they import their natural gas as well and pay more for it.

France reports record trade gap in May

July 7 (Xinhua via COMTEX) — Sluggish exports and soaring costs of imported petroleum products drove higher France’s trade deficit to a record of 7.42 billion euros (10.61 billion U.S. dollars) in May, customs figures showed on Thursday.

For the past 12 months, the cumulated trade deficit widened to 63.41 billion euros in total compared to 51.55 billion euros in 2010.

“As in April, the trade deficit exceeded seven billion euros. It worsened due to double effects of surging imports, notably energy, and of sluggish exports …” French customs said in a statement.

The country’s total imports stood at 41.6 billion, up from 41.47 billion euros reported in April as purchases of refined products remained high and imports of natural hydrocarbons grew.

At the end of May, France reported a slight drop in its sales abroad to 34.17 billion euros on the back of lower sales of Airbus.

The giant aero group garnered 1.33 billion euros after selling 21 aircrafts versus 26 worth 1.7 billion euros in April, but during the week-long Paris Airshow in June, Airbus reported record orders for a total of 730 aircraft worth 72.2 billion U.S. dollars.

Global indicators not so good this am

The hope is that the entire soft spot is a temporary consequence of the earthquake, and that China holds together, and that global austerity isn’t sufficient to slow overall growth:

Headlines:

Bank of England warns against quick fix to crisis (AP)
U.K. Services Drop Most Since January 2010 on Extra Holiday (Bloomberg)
U.K. Mortgage Approvals Increased Less Than Forecast in May (Bloomberg)
Bank of England Split on Interest Rate Policy as Consumers Struggle (Telegraph)
PBOC Adviser Sees China ‘Chronic’ Inflation Lasting Decade
Why China’s Heading for a Hard Landing, Part 3: A. Gary Shilling
Sweden: Slowdown After Strong Growth
Europe June Economic Confidence Drops to Lowest in 8 Months
Trichet Urges New Vision of Europe as Greeks Protest Austerity
Up to 15 EU banks to fail stress test
ECB’s Stark Rejects Brady-Bond Solution for Greece, Zeit Reports
French Greek Rollover Plan Depends on No Default Rating
French Output Grew Less Than Estimated on Consumer Spending
Growth of German retail sales maintained in June
French Jobless Claims Increase for First Time in Five Months
Spanish premier proposes new economic measures
Portugal plans tougher austerity measures
Spanish Existing Home Prices Decline 1.8% in Second Quarter
Mortgage Applications Dipped Last Week

Greece on the slippery slope

First, I think there isn’t enough political or popular support to leave the euro and go back to the drachma.

As previously discussed, it’s not obvious to the population or the political leadership that there is anything wrong with the euro itself.

Instead, it probably seems obvious the problem is the result of irresponsible leadership, and now they are all paying the price.

So staying with the euro, Greece has two immediate choices:

1. Negotiate the best austerity terms and conditions they can, and continue to muddle through.

2. Don’t accept them and default

Accepting the terms of the austerity package offered means some combination of spending cuts, tax hikes, assets sales, etc. that still leaves a sizable deficit for the next few years, with a glide path to some presumably sustainable level of deficit spending.

Defaulting means no more borrowing at all for most likely a considerable period of time, which means at least for a while they will only be able to spend the actual tax revenue they take in, which means immediately going to a 0 deficit.

What matters to Greece, on a practical level, is how large a deficit they are allowed to run. This makes default a lot more painful than any austerity package that allows for the funding of at least some size deficit.

Therefore it’s makes the most sense for Greece to accept the best package they can negotiate, rather than to refuse and default.

Additionally, the funding Greece will need to keep going is probably funding to pay for goods and services from Germany and some of the other euro member nations.

In other words, if Germany wants to get paid for its stream of exports to Greece it must approve some kind of funding package.

Reminds me of a an old story Woody Allen popularized a while back:

Doctor: So what’s the problem?

Patient: It’s my brother. He thinks he’s a chicken.

Doctor: Have you tried to talk to him about it?

Patient: No

Doctor: Why not?

Patient: Well, we need the eggs

Likewise the euro zone needs the eggs, and so the most likely path continues to be some manner of ECB funding of the banking system and the national govt’s, as needed, last minute, kicking and screaming about how they need an exit strategy, etc. etc. etc. And the unspoken pressure relief valve is inflation, with a falling euro leading the march. It’s unspoken because the ECB has a single mandate of price stability, which is not compatible with a continuously falling euro, and because a strong euro is an important part of the union’s ideology. But a weak euro that adjusts the price level, as a practical matter, is nonetheless the only pressure relief valve they have for their debt issues in general. And, also as previously discussed, it looks like market forces may be conspiring to move it all in that direction.

The people have spoken in Portugal

As previously discussed, it’s not obvious to voters that the currency itself is the problem.

Instead, what seems obvious is that the prior governments were at fault for their irresponsible fiscal policies for which the price is now being paid.

Coelho Told by Portugal’s Cavaco to Hurry Coalition Talks

By Joao Lima

June 7 (Bloomberg) — Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal’s incoming prime minister, was told by President Anibal Cavaco Silva to start talks immediately on forging a coalition to ensure austerity measures mandated by a 78 billion-euro ($114 billion) bailout stay on track.

The order that Coelho move came in their meeting yesterday in Lisbon less than 24 hours after the Social Democrat unseated Socialist Jose Socrates, Jose Manuel Nunes Liberato, a presidential aide, told reporters.

Starting talks with the People’s Party before all the results are in underscores officials’ concerns over meeting deadlines prescribed in the bailout. Leaders of the third-place finishers meet today in Lisbon and may signal their demands to join as Coelho’s junior partner.

“There is a majority government and that is a necessary condition to implement the very difficult structural reforms and the challenging fiscal consolidation,” Antonio Garcia Pascual, chief southern European economist at Barclays Capital in London, said yesterday.

Coelho’s Social Democrats and the People’s Party, won a combined 129 seats in the 230-member parliament with four seats yet to be decided, according to official results.

While all three major parties committed to the bailout’s program of spending cuts and asset sales, a new majority taking over from Socrates’ minority administration gave bonds a boost. Yields on 10-year notes rose 8 basis points to 9.372 percent in Lisbon as of 10:16 a.m. today.

Opposition wins Portugal election. Portugal’s right-of-center Social Democrats have the dubious privilege of imposing massive budget cuts and risk further exacerbating the country’s economic woes after winning yesterday’s election with around 40% of the vote. The Social Democrats will probably form a coalition with the conservative Popular Party and so gain a majority in parliament. This will make it easier to implement austerity measures, such as welfare and pay cuts, and tax rises, as the government looks to comply with the terms of a €78B ($114B) bailout. The coalition takes office with unemployment at a record 12.6% and with the economy forecast to contract 4% over the next two years.

the euro zone in transition

As previously discussed since inception, operationally the euro zone, much like every other nation with its own currency, will, one way or another, wind up with the ECB, the issuer of the currency,
‘funding’ fiscal deficits sufficient to meet any net savings desires in that currency, as well as funding the banking system’s liabilities.

The open question has always been is how it gets from here to there, and the answer to that has never been clear.

So far it’s doing it with great reluctance, with the ECB funding the banking system and select national govts only as a last resort, and not yet in the normal course of business.

A weakening global economy now seems to be forcing the next move towards the ultimate expected outcome.

We may have reached that point where their austerity measures, rather than bringing national govt deficits down, will instead make those deficit go up, as they induce macro economic weakness which ‘automatically’ increases transfer payments and decreases tax revenues.

This is a highly unstable equilibrium condition that can accelerate into a variety of forms of oblivion, which ultimately reaches the core as default risk premiums move down the line, much like a multi car pile up as one car after another crashes into the lead pack of wrecked cars.

And as the core is threatened, holders of euro financial assets, including foreign govts that hold various forms of euro financial assets as foreign currency reserves, feel the walls closing in, as one credit after another falls by the wayside.

Only a sudden increase in world aggregate demand, or a sudden change of policy that includes pro active ECB funding, is likely to be able to reverse what’s been happening

ECB’s Trichet Suggests Creation of Euro Finance Ministry

“if efforts to deal with its debt crisis do not deliver results”

ECB’s Trichet Suggests Creation of Euro Finance Ministry

May 25 (Reuters) — Europe should consider strengthening central control of economic policy if efforts to deal with its debt crisis do not deliver results, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Thursday.

Accepting a prize for his contribution to European unification, Trichet laid out ideas including the formation of a European Union finance ministry and a veto for EU authorities over spending and other major domestic policy decisions.

“As a first stage, it is justified to provide financial assistance in the context of a strong adjustment program,” Trichet said. “But if a country is still not delivering, I think all would agree that the second stage has to be different.”

“Would it go too far if we envisaged, at this second stage, giving euro area authorities a much deeper and authoritative say in the formation of the country’s economic policies if these go harmfully astray?” European policymakers are struggling towards a new aid package for Greece that is expected to include new loans, fresh austerity commitments and a stepped-up privatisation programme, potentially supervised from outside.

Juncker, EU minister quoted

Juncker, EU minister and erstwhile unofficial IMF policy spokeman:

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   Referring to questions about Greece’s prospects for restructuring in the absence of a
>   stabilization course:
>   

“If the donkey were a cat it could climb a tree. But it is not a cat. Nevertheless, this is a question that worries many people. My answer to it is almost a little theological: I do not believe that this question will ever be asked.”

>   
>   This interview out a couple days ago in Der Spiegel was priceless ( and informative)… he’s
>   being asked about why he denied the emergency meeting rumored some days ago about
>   Greece leaving EMU when it was true…
>   

“SPIEGEL: Are you saying that, as a finance minister in the age of global capital markets, you cannot tell people the truth?

Juncker: I do not have a ready answer to your question…”

Juncker: Greece is not broke.

SPIEGEL: Hope springs eternal.

Full interview here.