Category Archives: Daily

2009-03-03 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Mar 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Mar 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior -0.8%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Mar 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.9%
Prior -1.5%
Revised n/a

 
Redbook up two weeks in a row?

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Mar 3)

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey -3.5%
Actual -7.7%
Prior 6.3%
Revised 4.8%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.6%
Prior 5.7%
Revised n/a


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2009-03-02 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Jan)

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Personal Spending (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 33.8
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 33.5
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.3%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -2.4%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.1%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a


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2009-02-27 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q P)

Survey -5.4%
Actual -6.2%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (4Q P)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -4.3%
Prior -3.5%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey 33.0
Actual 34.2
Prior 33.3
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey 32.0
Actual 29.0
Prior 33.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey 56.0
Actual 56.3
Prior 56.2
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb F)


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2009-02-26 USER

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Durable Goods Orders (Jan)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -5.2%
Prior -2.6%
Revised -4.6%

 
Karim writes:

  • -5.2% m/m; December revised from -2.6% to -4.6%

  • Ex-aircraft and defense -5.4% m/m and -34.4% last 3mths at an annualized rate

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -26.4%
Prior -20.1%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.3%
Prior -7.5%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Jan)

Survey -2.2%
Actual -2.5%
Prior -3.6%
Revised -5.5%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Jan)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21)

Survey 625K
Actual 667K
Prior 627K
Revised 631K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims up 36k to new cycle high of 667k

  • Continuing claims up another 14k to new cycle high of 5112k

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Continuing Claims (Feb 14)

Survey 5025K
Actual 5112K
Prior 4987K
Revised 4998K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Feb 21)

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New Home Sales (Jan)

Survey 324K
Actual 309K
Prior 331K
Revised 344K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.00
Prior 353.00
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey -21.%
Actual -10.2%
Prior -14.7%
Revised -9.5%

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New Home Sales YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -48.2%
Prior -42.7%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 201.10
Prior 223.20
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Jan)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Jan)


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2009-02-25 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -15.1%
Prior 45.7%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 250.50
Prior 257.30
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 3618.00
Prior 4472.90
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales (Jan)

Survey 4.79M
Actual 4.49M
Prior 4.74M
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey 1.1%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 6.5%
Revised 4.4%

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.6%
Prior -4.8%
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.600
Prior 3.700
Revised n/a

 
Foreclosure sales peaked?

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Jan)


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2009-02-24 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.50%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 24)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.90%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 24)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.66
Prior 154.59
Revised 154.55

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Dec)

Survey -18.30%
Actual -18.55%
Prior -18.18%
Revised -18.20%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (4Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 139.14
Prior 150.04
Revised 150.00

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (4Q)

Survey -17.20%
Actual -18.23%
Prior -16.60%
Revised -16.55%

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Consumer Confidence (Feb)

Survey 35.0
Actual 25.0
Prior 37.7
Revised 37.4

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Feb)

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House Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.7%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

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House Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.7%
Prior -7.6%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index ALLX (Dec)

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (4Q)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -3.4%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.0%

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)

Survey -49
Actual -51
Prior -49
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Feb)


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2009-02-20 USER

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.8%

 
Karim writes:

CPI boosted by OER and tobacco.

  • m/m .282% headline and .177% core; y/y 0.0% headline and 1.7% core
  • Mthly data boosted by OER (up 0.3%)-likely reflects decline in fuel/utility prices in recent months (which boosts ‘owners equivalent rent’)
  • Mirroring PPI yesterday, tobacco prices up 0.8%
  • Core PCE, which has less weight in housing, has been negative for 3mths in a row. On y/y basis, core inflation likely headed to 1% by mid-year (headline inflation may decline by -1% y/y by mid-year before converging to core in H2).

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Jan)

Survey 211.081
Actual 211.143
Prior 210.228
Revised n/a

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CPI Core Index SA (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 217.265
Prior 216.816
Revised 216.882

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Jan)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Jan)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Jan)


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2009-02-19 USER

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Producer Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.8%
Prior -1.9%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • PPI up 0.8% and 0.4% core; core boosted by some annual one-offs (prescriptions at 1.1% and tobacco at 0.6%)
  • Pipeline pressures continue to decline; intermediate -0.7% and core intermediate -1.1%; crude -2.9% and core crude 0.1%

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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Producer Price Index YoY (Jan)

Survey -2.4%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.9%
Revised n/a

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jan)

Survey 3.8%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

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Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 14)

Survey 620K
Actual 627K
Prior 623K
Revised 627K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims remain unch at 627k (prior week revised up 4k)
  • Continuing claims up 170k to new cycle high

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Continuing Claims (Feb 7)

Survey 4830K
Actual 4987K
Prior 4810K
Revised 4817K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Feb 14)

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Leading Indicators (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.2%

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Jan)

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Philadelphia Fed (Feb)

Survey -25.0
Actual -41.3
Prior -24.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Philly Fed confirms Empire survey earlier this week that rate of decline in manufacturing is accelerating.
  • Headline activity, orders, shipments, and employment all fall sharply

Feb 2009 Jan 2009 Dec 2008 Nov 2008 Oct 2008 Sept 2008 Aug 2008 6 month avg
General Business Activity -41.3 -24.3 -36.1 -39.8 -38.7 1.9 -20.1 -29.7
Prices Paid -13.7 -27.0 -25.5 -26.6 10.2 32.5 53.0 -8.4
Prices Received -27.8 -26.2 -32.8 -11.3 5.0 15.1 25.1 -13.0
New Orders -30.3 -22.3 -28.2 -29.3 -30.6 3.8 -15.2 -22.8
Shipments -32.4 -16.7 -29.7 -19.3 -17.6 -1.3 -6.1 -19.5
# of Employees -45.8 -39.0 -28.6 -23.8 -19.2 -3.2 -4.6 -26.6

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Feb)


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2009-02-18 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.00%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -1.70%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.90%
Prior 0.70%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.7%
Prior -24.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 257.30
Prior 235.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 4472.90
Prior 2722.70
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -4.2%
Revised -5.0%

 
Karim writes:

  • Import prices -1.1% m/m and -12.5% y/y; -0.8% m/m ex-petroleum; imports from China -0.7% m/m (-0.5% and -0.7% prior 2mths)

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    Import Price Index YoY (Jan)

    Survey -11.2%
    Actual -12.5%
    Prior -9.3%
    Revised -10.3%

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    Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Jan)

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    Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Jan)

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    Housing Starts (Jan)

    Survey 529K
    Actual 466K
    Prior 550K
    Revised 560K

     
    Karim writes:

    Housing starts and building permits fall to all-time lows.

    • Starts -16.8% m/m (all 4 regions down) and -56.2% y/y; 3rd consecutive double digit m/m decline

    • Permits -4.8% m/m (all 4 regions down)

    • When adding the supply of vacant homes (over 1mm) to starts, excess supply (relative to new household formation and obsolesence) still exists and in turn downward pressure on home prices

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    Building Permits (Jan)

    Survey 525K
    Actual 521K
    Prior 549K
    Revised 547K

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    Industrial Production MoM (Jan)

    Survey -1.5%
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -2.0%
    Revised -2.4%

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    Industrial Production YoY (Jan)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -10.0%
    Prior -8.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Capacity Utilization (Jan)

    Survey 72.4%
    Actual 72.0%
    Prior 73.6%
    Revised 73.3%

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Jan)

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    Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Jan)


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    2009-02-12 USER

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    Advance Retail Sales MoM (Jan)

    Survey -0.8%
    Actual 1.0%
    Prior -2.7%
    Revised -3.0%

     
    Karim writes:

    • Retail sales rise 1% in January for first rise in 7mths.

    • December revised to down 3% from down 2.7%.

    • 3mth annualized rate of change improves from -25.5% to -24.3%.

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    Advance Retail Sales YoY (Jan)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -9.7%
    Prior -10.5%
    Revised n/a

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    Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Jan)

    Survey -0.4%
    Actual 0.9%
    Prior -3.1%
    Revised -3.2%

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 7)

    Survey 610K
    Actual 623K
    Prior 626K
    Revised 631K

     
    Karim writes:

  • Initial claims drop 8k to 623k

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    Continuing Claims (Jan 31)

    Survey 4800K
    Actual 4810K
    Prior 4788K
    Revised 4799K

     
    Karim writes:

    • Continuing claims rise 11k to new cycle high

    • Chicago Fed Prez Evans yesterday that further policy accommodation was needed

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 31)

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    Business Inventories MoM (Dec)

    Survey -0.9%
    Actual -1.3%
    Prior -0.7%
    Revised -1.1%

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    Business Inventories YoY (Dec)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 0.9%
    Prior 2.9%
    Revised n/a


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