2008-02-14 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 14, 2008 @ 4:22 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Trade Balance (Dec)

Survey	-$61.5B
Actual	-$58.8B
Prior	-$63.1B
Revised	n/a

Moving lower as it reflects the declining desire of non residents to accumulate $US financial assets. Three main drivers are Paulson calling CB’s who buy $ currency manipulators, the Fed pursuing what looks to the world an ‘inflate your way out of debt’ policy scaring foreigners out of holding $US financial assets, and Bush’s ideological stance discouraging many oil producers from accumulating $US financial assets. And the new fiscal package doesn’t help, either.

Strong exports continue to support GDP and pick up the slack due to weak housing.

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 9)

Survey	347K
Actual	348K
Prior	356K
Revised	357K

Working their way back down – no recession here.

Continuing Claims (Feb 2)

Survey	2759K
Actual	2761K
Prior	2785K
Revised	2770K

Still at modest levels, and only a very small blip on the long term chart.

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥

2008-02-13 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 13, 2008 @ 7:29 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBAVPRCH Index

Doesn’t look too bad.

Mortgage bankers have reduced staff and are probably working overtime on refi’s which remain very high.

Retail Sales

Details of today’s report aside, the year over year chart looks like retail sales have been working their way modestly higher during the last year.

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥

Retail sales survey from yesterday

Posted on February 13, 2008 @ 7:24 pm (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Both of these weekly surveys showed Jan declines in growth (but still positive year over year) and signs of a modest recovery in Feb.

Twin themes of weakness and inflation seem to be continuing.

Redbook Retail Sales Survey

UBS Retail Sales Survey

♥

2008-02-07 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 7, 2008 @ 2:54 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 2)

Survey	342K
Actual	356K
Prior	375K
Revised	378K

Moving down, but will need to fall more next week to signal employment is doing reasonably well.

Continuing Claims (Jan 26)

Survey	2715K
Actual	2785K
Prior	2716K
Revised	-2710K

Back up a bit, but not through the highs, and reflects lasts weeks higher claims.

Total Pending Home Sales SA (Dec)

Survey	-1.0%
Actual	-1.5%
Prior	-2.6%
Revised	-3.0%

Down some, but not through the lows. October/November may still have been the bottom of housing.

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Jan)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.9%
Revised	n/a

Been drifting lower for quite a while. Part of the expected softening of domestic demand since Q2 2006.

Consumer Credit (Dec)

Survey	$7.4B
Actual	$4.5B
Prior	$15.4B
Revised	$17.1B

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥

2008-02-06 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 6, 2008 @ 10:20 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index SA (Feb 1)

Survey	n/a
Actual	405.3
Prior	362.0
Revised	n/a

Wild January, even considering all year ends are volatile for this series – now back over 400, roughly the 2006 average.

Will take a few more weeks to see where it’s been and where it may be going.

If it holds over 400 it’s one sign housing may not be getting any worse. A move back down to the 350 level signals another move down in housing.

MBA Refinancing Index SA (Feb 1)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5054.0
Prior	5103.6
Revised	n/a

Cranking them out as fast as the remaining mortgage banking staff can handle them.

Nonfarm Productivity(4Q P)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	1.8%
Prior	6.3%
Revised	6.0%

This means more output than expected for the same workforce.

Unit Labor Costs (4Q P)

Survey	3.5%
Actual	2.1%
Prior	-2.0%
Revised	-1.9%

Goes hand in hand with productivity- looks like business has this under control – supports good Q4 profitability.

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥

2008-02-05 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 6, 2008 @ 9:55 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Jan)

Survey	52.5
Actual	44.6
Prior	53.2
Revised	n/a

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business (Jan)

Survey	53.0
Actual	41.9
Prior	53.9
Revised	54.4

These are the types of numbers you get after something like Katrina or 911. Either the economy hit the wall suddenly in January or there is some kind of statistical adjustment that took place.

Note that ISM was revised even higher for December, then collapsed in January. Other statistics that fell apart in January include payrolls, vehicle sales, and mortgage applications, which come out in a few hours, and initial claims, due out tomorrow.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Feb 3)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-33
Prior	-27
Revised	n/a

This has been falling for a while and is no surprise given the headline recession proclamations.

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥

2008-02-04 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 5, 2008 @ 1:37 am (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Challenger Job Cuts Total (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	74,986
Prior	44,416
Revised	n/a

A volatile number that has been showing low levels of layoffs and not given much weight either way.

Factory Orders (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	441,566
Prior	431,489
Revised	n/a

Another strong number – no sign of recession here.

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥

2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 1, 2008 @ 10:54 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	70K
Actual	-17K
Prior	18K
Revised	82K

Last negative number was August – got revised up.

Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad.

(See following report.)

Unemployment Rate

Survey	5.0%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	5.0%
Revised	n/a

Slight downtic.

The Fed calls 4.75% full employment.

So, this is close enough.

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	-20K
Actual	-28K
Prior	-31K
Revised	-20K

Suspiciously low as a per December durable goods and export numbers.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey	3.9%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.7%
Revised	n/a

Seems to be under control though a weak productivity number could raise unit labor costs.

Average Weekly Hours

Survey	33.8
Actual	33.7
Prior	33.8
Revised	n/a

Down a bit. Fairly steady.

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-4.1681
Prior	-3.4285
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	254.3
Prior	255.5
Revised	258.9

November housing was weak.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey	79.0
Actual	78.4
Prior	80.5
Revised	n/a

Not bad.

Both current and expected improved.

U. of Michigan TABLE

ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey	47.3
Actual	50.7
Prior	47.7
Revised	48.4

Back to growth mode.

ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey	68.0
Actual	76.0
Prior	68.0
Revised	n/a

Inflation ripping here.

Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-1.1%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	-0.4%

Still bumping along the bottom.

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 31, 2008 @ 11:36 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income (Dec)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Personal Income TABLE

A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.

Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	1.1%
Revised	1.0%

Personal Spending TABLE

OK number after last month’s large increase.

Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.

PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey	3.5%
Actual	3.5%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.

PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

Actual was 0.23%

PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)

Survey	319K
Actual	375K
Prior	301K
Revised	306K

Big jump up as expected by Karim.

4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).

Not yet the stuff of recession.

Continuing Claims (Jan 19)

Survey	2685K
Actual	2716K
Prior	2672K
Revised	2669K

Moved back up some.

Also not yet the stuff of recession.

Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.8%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

Employment Cost Index YoY

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.3%
Prior	3.3%
Revised	n/a

As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey	52.0
Actual	51.5
Prior	56.6
Revised	56.4

Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.

Help Wanted Index (Dec)

Survey	20
Actual	22
Prior	21
Revised	n/a

Very small uptick from a very low level.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	58.0
Prior	62.0
Revised	n/a

No recession here, yet.

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥

Claims, ECI

Posted on January 31, 2008 @ 10:12 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

From Karim:

True to the past 5yrs pattern, claims seem to be reverting to trend after the first few weeks of January.

Right, good call!

IJC climbed from 306k to 375k; the trend before the January drop was around 340-350k; this number was for MLK holiday week, so an adjustment issue here as well; bottom line is I think trend is still around 350k.
Continuing claims rose from 2685k to 2716k.
ECI (both headline and wage component) up 0.8% q/q

Data below is for Dec, so was largely known in ydayÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s GDP number.

Personal income up 0.5%, with wage and salary component up 0.4%
Core PCE up 0.2% m/m (2.2% y/y)

Most meaningful data here was continuing claims (little to no hiring taking place) and ECI (wage gwth still tame).

And Fed still looking at this as an indication of ‘inflation expectations’.

ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€žÂ¢Ã‚Â¥