Category Archives: Daily

2008-09-09 USER

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Stores Sales YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

 
Muddling through, well off the bottom, and not at recession levels.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep. 9)

 
Pretty much the same, muddling through and far from recession levels.

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Pending Home Sales (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 86.5
Prior 89.4
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.2%
Prior 5.3%
Revised 5.8%

 
A bit lower but last month’s gain revised even higher.

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.5%
Prior -11.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still negative but looks to be surfacing rapidly.

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 10.6%
Prior 9.3%
Revised n/a

 
Inventories up but within normal fluctuations.

The question is causation- weak sales and unwanted inventories or building inventories for increasing demand

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Jul)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Sep)

Survey 44.0
Actual 45.8
Prior 42.8
Revised n/a

 


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2008-09-08 USER

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Consumer Credit (Jul)

Survey $8.5B
Actual $4.6B
Prior $14.3B
Revised $11.0B

 
Lower than expected which could mean there was less spending than expected.

This is a very volatile series.

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Consumer Credit YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 5.4%
Revised n/a

 
Doesn’t look bad from this angle.

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Consumer Credit TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Consumer Credit TABLE 2 (Jul)


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2008-09-05 USER

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US Economic Releases

Unemployment Rate (Aug)

Survey 5.7%
Actual 6.1%
Prior 5.7%
Revised n/a

 
Another big gap up.
Quite a bit of the run up is due to new people entering the labor force to find work.
Could be due to new extended benefits program.
Could be due to more people looking to earn some extra money.

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Aug)

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)

Survey -75K
Actual -84K
Prior -51K
Revised -60K

 
A bit worse than expected and previous months revised up some, mainly due to state and local government reductions.

Weakness but still not recession type losses.

Cesar writes:

weak report

  • NFP down 84k; net revisions down another 58k, 8th straight mthly decline

Yes, continuing weakness in employment, but not at 200,000+ recession type levels.

Also, negative revisions for previous months means productivity was even higher.

  • Unemployment rate jumps from 5.682% to 6.055% (household employment down 342k and labor force up 250k)

Yes, big numbers entering the labor force have been contributing to the higher unemployment rate.

Some of this could be due to extended benefit programs and some could be to high pricers driving people out of ‘retirement’ and back into the labor force.

  • Diffusion index improves from 41.4 to 48.9

  • Index of aggregate hours drops 0.1% (3 months annualized rate down 1.8%)

  • Average duration of unemployment rises 17.1 to 17.4 weeks (median actually improved from 9.7 to 9.2)

  • Average hourly earnings rise 0.4% and increased from 3.4% y/y to 3.6% y/y

  • By sector:
    • Mfg down 61k

    • Construction down 8k

    • Retail down 20k

    • Temp down 37k

    • Education & Health care up 55k

    • Govt up 17k

The last two are the largest sectors and where the trend of growth generally comes from.

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Aug)

Survey -35K
Actual -61K
Prior -35K
Revised -38K

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Mining-Manufacturing Employment ALLX (Aug)

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

 
A bit of an uptick, but not problematic at this point.

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Aug)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.6%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Aug)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Aug)

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Average Weekly Hours (Aug)

Survey 33.6
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.6
Revised 33.7

 
Hours per worker up, but total hours worked down due to job losses.

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 2 (Aug)

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Mortgage Delinquencies (2Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.41%
Prior 6.35%
Revised n/a

 
Still going up, but possibly the rate of increase has slowed.

Should level off as mortgages granted on fraudulent applications were largely eliminated over a year ago.

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Mortgage Delinquencies ALLX (2Q)


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2008-09-04 USER

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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims jump 16k to 445k (4wk avg 439k from 444k)
  • Continuing claims rise 15k to 3435k (4wk avg 3400k from 3367k)
  • A correction from the impact of the extended benefits program would have seen initial claims drop to the 400-425k range (as was expected)
  • This increase and a new cycle high in continuing claims suggests some renewed labor market weakness and adds to downside risks to upcoming NFP reports
  • Unit labor costs for Q2 revised from unch to -0.5% and productivity from 3.5% to 4.3%. These numbers are volatile, but at the margin, the Fed will welcome these revisions as they relate to its inflation outlook.

Yes, and they also show that a share of the job losses were attributable to ‘efficiency gains’ rather than macro weakness (though the two are related) meaning economic potential is firming. This is the ‘classic benefit’ of a slowdown.

  • ISM Non-Mfg headline continues to meander around 50 (rises from 49.5 to 50.6)
  • Prices paid drops from 80.8 to 72.9; employment weakens further, from 47.1 to 45.4
  • Orders up 2 points, export orders down 3pts
  • Labor department official states claims data this week were a ‘clean read’, but that next week’s number will be effected by the Gustav evacuation
  • Trichet says Euro economy in an ‘episode of weak activity’ and that M3 data is overstating monetary expansion as credit growth is moderating. States ECB especially focused on wage growth, but when asked if he agrees with Board member Stark on seeing ‘broad-based’ second round effects, says only seeing ‘some second round effects’. Seems like ECB wants to see weak growth become entrenched and wage demands to moderate before entertaining rate cuts-i.e., unemployment needs to rise further.

US Economic Releases

ADP Employment Change (Aug)

Survey -30K
Actual -33K
Prior 9K
Revised 1K

 
Continuing its long, lazy trend lower, but not recession levels yet.

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ADP Employment Change MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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ADP TABLE 1 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 2 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 3 (Aug)

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ADP ALLX (Aug)

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Very high number. Shows the higher GDP is being sustained by fewer workers.

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Nice downtick. Domestic labor costs aren’t pushing up prices yet.

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Productivity TABLE 1 (2Q F)

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Productivity TABLE 2 (2Q F)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 30)

Survey 420K
Actual 444K
Prior 425K
Revised 429K

 
Keeps working its way higher after the extended benefit program was initiated, though the 4 week average is a touch lower.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 29)

Survey 3423K
Actual 3435K
Prior 3423K
Revised 3429K

 
Not looking good and also not sure how much this is influenced by the extended benefits program.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 30)

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Aug)

Survey 49.5
Actual 50.6
Prior 49.5
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

 
Employment and export orders down some, while prices paid still very high.

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ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Not great, but not falling apart.

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ICSC TABLE (Aug)


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2008-09-03 USER

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US Economic Releases

MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 349.0
Prior 315.9
Revised n/a

Nice to see this picking up. With agencies sorted out and income holding up, it should continue to improve over time.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 1059.7
Prior 1038.0
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Aug 29)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.7%
Prior 140.8%
Revised n/a

This series hasn’t been all that useful one way or another.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts ALLX (Aug)

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Looks okay. No recession here.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Looks okay.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 2)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jul)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 2.1%

Better than expected and previous month revised up.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 7.5%
Revised n/a

Could be construed as being in an uptrend!

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jul)

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 9.4M
Actual 10.4M
Prior 9.1M
Revised n/a

Even this has turned up, though from very low levels.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 13.0M
Actual 13.7M
Prior 12.5M
Revised n/a

Better than expected and may have bottomed. As the mix of vehicles produces switches, expect sales to increase.

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Vehicle Sales ALLX (Aug)


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2008-09-02 USER

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ISM Manufacturing (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 49.9
Prior 50.0
Revised n/a

Not bad; far from recession levels in a sector that will continue to decline as a percentage of GDP indefinately.

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ISM Prices Paid (Aug)

Survey 82.0
Actual 77.0
Prior 88.5
Revised n/a

Less than expected, but still very high. Indication that most companies still paying higher prices even as commodities declined.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

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Construction Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.4%
Revised 0.3%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still very weak, but smaller declines.

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Jul)

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 31)

Survey -49
Actual -47
Prior -50
Revised n/a


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2008-08-29 US Economic Releases

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Personal Income MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.7%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Still at higher levels than before the rebates and far from a consumer collapse.

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Personal Income TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Personal Income TABLE 2 (Jul)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t look all that bad to me.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jul)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.1%
Revised 4.0%

This is not the kind of chart the Fed wants to see.

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PCE Core MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jul)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Neither is this.

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PCE ALLX 1 (Jul)

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PCE ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

  • Not much to alter Fed’s view or likely course with this data
  • Real PCE down -0.3% m/m for July, in line with expectations. Nominal PCE up 0.2%.
  • Personal income down 0.7%, again as expected, and due to drop in government transfers (fiscal package ended)
  • Core PCE deflator up 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y. At Jackson Hole, Bernanke stated he expected inflation to ‘moderate later this year and next’, meaning he still sees a few more months of possible upward pressure.

Yes, and he has been saying he expects headline inflation to moderate at every speaking event for the last few years.

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 230.00
Prior 233.37
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.15%
Prior -15.60%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 57.9
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

Upside surprise here.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 1 (Aug)

Prices paid still way high; big dip in employment.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE 2 (Aug)

Karim writes:

  • Chicago PMI rises from 50.8 to 57.9; but orders and production components (each up sharply) at odds with employment component (down sharply), so report to be taken with a grain of salt.

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U of Michigan Confidence (Aug F)

Survey 62.0
Actual 63.0
Prior 61.7
Revised n/a

Karim writes:

  • Final UMICH survey for August shows minor improvement in confidence (61.7 to 63.0) and no change in inflation expectations components.
  • ISM and payrolls next week to weigh more heavily

Confidence turning up with the rebates.

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U of Michigan Consumer Attitudes TABLE (Aug F)

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Fwd (Aug F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.8%
Prior 5.1%
Revised n/a

The Fed worries these will get embedded.

Personally, I don’t see inflation as a function of expectations but they do.

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Inflation Expectations 5yr Fwd (Aug 5)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

Too high still.

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Aug)

Survey 44.0
Actual 43.0
Prior 44.0
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected but still off the bottom.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Aug)


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2008-08-28 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q P)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 3.3%
Prior 1.9% (2Q P); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized (2Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (2Q P)

Survey 1.1%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption (2Q P)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.5% (2QP); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1% (2Q P); 2.3% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 23)

Survey 425K
Actual 425K
Prior 432K
Revised 435K

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

Survey 3390K
Actual 3423K
Prior 3362K
Revised 3359K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 22)


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2008-08-27 US Economic Releases

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Economy strong enough to use up excess Saudi oil capacity.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.5%
Prior -1.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Aug 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 315.9
Prior 314.0
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Aug 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 1038.0
Prior 1034.5
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Aug 22)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Aug 22)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Aug 22)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Aug 22)

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 1.3%

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior -1.3%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 2.0%
Revised 2.4%

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Durables ex Defense MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.8%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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Durable Goods ALLX (Jul)


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2008-08-26 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Aug 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Aug 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Aug 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Aug 26)

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Consumer Confidence (Aug)

Survey 53.0
Actual 56.9
Prior 51.9
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Aug)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Aug)

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S&P-CaseShiller Home Price Index (Jun)

Survey 167.20
Actual 167.69
Prior 168.54
Revised n/a

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S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY (Jun)

Survey -16.20%
Actual -15.92%
Prior -15.78%
Revised -15.78%

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S&P-CaseShiller US HPI (2Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 155.32
Prior 159.20
Revised 159.03

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S&P-CaseShiller US HPI YoY (2Q)

Survey -16.2%
Actual -15.4%
Prior -14.1%
Revised -14.2%

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S&P-CaseShiller US HPI QoQ (2Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.33%
Prior -6.75%
Revised n/a

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House Price Index MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.4%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.3%
Revised -0.4%

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House Price Index YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -4.8%
Revised n/a

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (2Q)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -1.7%
Revised -1.7%

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House Price Purchase Index YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.71%
Prior -0.06%
Revised n/a

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House Price Purchase Index Loans by Type TABLE (2Q)

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House Price Purchase Index ALLX (2Q)

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House Price Index TABLE (Jun)

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HPI ALLX 1 (Jun)

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HPI ALLX 2 (Jun)

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New Home Sales (Jul)

Survey 525K
Actual 515K
Prior 530K
Revised 503K

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New Home Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.9%
Actual 2.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -2.1%

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New Home Sales Total YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -35.3%
Prior -36.6%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales ALLX (Jul)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)

Survey -10
Actual -16
Prior -16
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Aug)

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 24)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -49
Revised –

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ABC Consumer Confidence ALLX (Aug 24)


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