2008-05-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 1, 2008 @ 10:51 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Released 7:30 EST)
Personal Income (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Spending (Released 8:30 EST)
PCE Deflator YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
PCE Core MoM (Released 8:30 EST)
PCE Core YoY (Released 8:30 EST)
Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
ISM Manufacturing (Released 10:00 EST)
ISM Prices Paid (Released 10:00 EST)
Construction Spending MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
Construction Spending YoY (Released 10:00 EST)
Total Vehicle Sales (Released 10:00 EST)
Domestic Vehicle Sales (Released 10:00 EST)

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey	n/a
Actual	27.4%
Prior	9.4%
Revised	n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

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Personal Income (Mar)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

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Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.4%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

Muddling through.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey	3.2%
Actual	3.2%
Prior	3.4%
Revised	n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

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PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

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PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey	2.0%
Actual	2.1%
Prior	2.0%
Revised	n/a

Starting to move back up.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey	365K
Actual	380K
Prior	342K
Revised	345K

No recession yet.

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Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey	2950K
Actual	3019K
Prior	2934K
Revised	2945K

No recession yet.

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ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey	48.0
Actual	48.6
Prior	48.6
Revised	n/a

Staying above recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey	83.5
Actual	84.5
Prior	83.5
Revised	n/a

Inflation ripping!

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Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey	-0.7%
Actual	-1.1%
Prior	-0.3%
Revised	0.4%

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Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-3.4%
Prior	-2.2%
Revised	n/a

Still weak.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey	15.0M
Actual	—
Prior	15.1M
Revised	—

[comments]

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey	11.4M
Actual	–
Prior	11.1M
Revised	–

[comments]

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2008-04-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 1, 2008 @ 7:24 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey	47.5
Actual	48.6
Prior	48.3
Revised	n/a

Still soft, but better than expected and not at recession levels of 44 or less.

ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey	75.0
Actual	83.5
Prior	75.5
Revised	n/a

ISM TABLE

Prices paid up and employment up -inflation and a lower output gap- not the direction the Fed wants the economy to be going.

Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey	-1.0%
Actual	-0.3%
Prior	-1.7%
Revised	-1.0%

Better than expected, prior month revised up, and the chart still looks lower but not all that bad.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 30)

Survey	-n/a
Actual	-33
Prior	-31
Revised	n/a

Seems to have bottomed, and today’s stock market action should give it a boost.

Total Vehicle Sales (Mar)

Survey	15.2M
Actual	15.1M
Prior	15.3M
Revised	n/a

Domestic Vehicle Sales

Survey	11.6M
Actual	11.1M
Prior	11.7M
Revised	n/a

Still working its way lower.

2008-03-03 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 3, 2008 @ 9:17 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-7.24%
Prior	-4.17%
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	245.70
Prior	254.29
Revised	n/a

Both were falling into year end.

ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey	48.0
Actual	48.3
Prior	50.7
Revised	n/a

Better than expected. Not yet to recession levels.

ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey	73.5
Actual	75.5
Prior	76.0
Revised	n/a

Price pressures persisting.

Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey	-0.7%
Actual	-1.7%
Prior	-1.1%
Revised	-1.3%

Very weak.

Total Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey	15.5M
Actual	15.4M
Prior	15.2M
Revised	n/a

As expected, but drifting to a lower range.

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey	11.9M
Actual	11.7M
Prior	11.7M
Revised	n/a

Drifting lower.

Same twin themes: weak demand and higher prices.Exports keeping GDP from recession levels, but taking demand from the rest of the world that is also softening.

2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 1, 2008 @ 10:54 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	70K
Actual	-17K
Prior	18K
Revised	82K

Last negative number was August – got revised up.

Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad.

(See following report.)

Unemployment Rate

Survey	5.0%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	5.0%
Revised	n/a

Slight downtic.

The Fed calls 4.75% full employment.

So, this is close enough.

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	-20K
Actual	-28K
Prior	-31K
Revised	-20K

Suspiciously low as a per December durable goods and export numbers.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey	3.9%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.7%
Revised	n/a

Seems to be under control though a weak productivity number could raise unit labor costs.

Average Weekly Hours

Survey	33.8
Actual	33.7
Prior	33.8
Revised	n/a

Down a bit. Fairly steady.

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-4.1681
Prior	-3.4285
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	254.3
Prior	255.5
Revised	258.9

November housing was weak.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey	79.0
Actual	78.4
Prior	80.5
Revised	n/a

Not bad.

Both current and expected improved.

U. of Michigan TABLE

ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey	47.3
Actual	50.7
Prior	47.7
Revised	48.4

Back to growth mode.

ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey	68.0
Actual	76.0
Prior	68.0
Revised	n/a

Inflation ripping here.

Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-1.1%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	-0.4%

Still bumping along the bottom.

2008-01-02 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 3, 2008 @ 12:22 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Oct)

Survey	n/a
Actual	258.86
Prior	259.22
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index YoY (Oct)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-3.4295
Prior	-2.4848
Revised	n/a

Metropolitan housing prices remain very weak.

ISM Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey	50.5
Actual	47.7
Prior	50.8
Revised	n/a

On the weak side – mainly new orders.

Employment ok.

ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

Survey	65.0
Actual	68.0
Prior	67.5
Revised	n/a

No weakness here!

Construction Spending MoM (Nov)

Survey	-0.4%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	-0.8%
Revised	-0.4%

Stronger than expected; may have bottomed.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 30)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-20
Prior	-23
Revised	n/a

Moderately less negative.

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2007-11-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on November 30, 2007 @ 5:24 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Summary:Nothing particularly alarming regarding balance of risks.Personal income and spending lower than expected. Questions are whether exports will continue pick up and support gdp, and whether this is weaker than the Fed’s Oct 31 projection. Deflator and core pce also up a touch, and year over year deflator heading north. As Karim indicated, core is inside the Fed’s ‘comfort zone’ but moving slightly towards the upper bound.Chicago PMI up, prices paid up 74.7 to 76.2Milwaukee pmi down, prices paid up to 61 from 56Lots of month end ‘evening up’ in the markets that might be reversed Monday. Month end effects should be over by Tuesday.