2007-12-06 US Economic Releases

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1) Survey 335K Actual 338K Prior 352K Revised 353K Down from the week before, chart still looks like a modest up move has taken place. Still comfortably below the 375-400K level that would signal a slowdown. Continuing Claims (Nov 24) Survey 2620K Actual 2599K Prior 2665K Revised 2658K ...Read More

Update: balance of risks since October 31st

Conclusion ♥ Jury still out pending tomorrow’s employment number and pre meeting developments. ♥ Labor markets stronger than expected, inflation about as expected. While several funding spreads have widened vs fed funds, absolute rates for reasonable quality mtgs. and corp. bonds are down. ♥ The largest risk the Fed is probably worried ...Read More

Re: more in ism

(an interoffice email) > ADP came in higher than expected and caused most dealers to raise their > payroll forecasts. > > Productivity revised UP to 6.3% vs 4.9%preliminary. Unit Labor Costs revised > to DOWN 2% vs. -0.2% preliminary. > ISM Non-Manuf, Nov — slips to 54.1 vs. 55.8 prior, weaker-than-forecast. ...Read More

Re: credit recap

Blood flowing around the clot. Markets functioning to keep the ‘real economy’ moving along. This will take some of the bid for bank LIBOR funding away as well. Credit Recap Source: Bear Stearns Credit Research. The wave of new supply has continued to come at even wider concessions than August and September. ...Read More

Re: BBC E-mail: UK interest rates trimmed to 5.5%

(email) Philip, Yes, thanks. Might be to ‘give room’ to the Fed or maybe the modern version of ‘trade wars’ being played out? The UK is saying to the US there’s a limit to using the $ as a ‘weapon’ to ‘steal’ agg demand. They see it as a game of chicken- ...Read More

Re: change of govt = change of practice

(Email) On Dec 5, 2007 11:50 PM, Wray, Randall wrote: > Bill: thanks. Yes I think the data are overwhelming for very serious problems, for deep recession, and for rate cuts. the problems to the real economy aren’t showing up yet exports have been more than filling the housing gap- as long ...Read More

MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Nov. 30 shows lower rates

interesting how mtg rates are lower than at the Oct 31 fed meeting. U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Nov. 30 (Table) 2007-12-05 07:00 (New York) By Terry BarrettDec. 5 (Bloomberg) — Following is a summary of U.S. mortgage activity from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Nov 30 Nov 23 Nov 16 Nov ...Read More

Saudi oil production rose last month

Saudi production rose last month, meaning demand for their output increased even at the higher prices. They are acting as ‘swing producer’ and let output vary to meet actual demand. By definition, therefore, markets are ‘well supplied’ at their price. To avoid controversy, they deny this policy, but in fact they have ...Read More

2007-12-05 US Economic Releases

  MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 30) Survey n/a Actual 25.5% Prior -4.3% Revised -5.2% Mortgage banking purchase index is holding above 400 since April, and up nicely year over year. The ‘multiple application’ story is getting old. Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Nov) Survey n/a Actual -4.7% Prior -8.8% Revised n/a Modest improvement- ...Read More

2007-12-04 US Economic Releases

From late yesterday.. ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 2) Survey n/a Actual -24 Prior -21 Revised n/a This is a function of CNBC’s reporting bias. ♥ ...Read More