Government Spending Archive

Warsaw conference

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Big snap back in second quarter growth less likely

No mention yet of the deficit being too small… At sub 3% we comply with the Maastricht limits. Maybe the plan is to join the euro? Why else would we allow this? ;) Big snap back in second quarter growth less likely By Patti Domm (CNBC) — After a shocking contraction in ...Read More

charts and comments GDP, durables, mtg apps, etc.

>    >   On Wed, Jun 25, 2014 at 8:52 AM, Sheraz wrote: >    >   Very weak US numbers >    And not one ‘nice call’ email!!! And yesterday’s stock market action suggests a possible data leak??? :( US 1Q GDP has been revised lower by far than expected. After having initially been reported as a ...Read More

housing starts and other charts

Same pattern- down some for the winter, up some, then backing off some. If this is in fact what’s happening, Q2 GDP could be up less than 3%, and 2014 sub 2%, or even sub 0, if the demand leakages are allowed to keep the upper hand and a fiscal adjustment isn’t ...Read More

per student funding drops

Total funding for schools dropped for the 1st time in 2012 since 1977 http://t.co/TeEVQOUJG3 v @FiveThirtyEight pic.twitter.com/59JAj5mUT6 — ProPublica (@ProPublica) June 10, 2014 ...Read More

Review of last weeks data

So my narrative is: The Federal budget deficit is too small to support growth given the current ‘credit environment’- maybe $400b less net spending in 2014. The automatic fiscal stabilizers are ‘aggressive’, as they materially and continually reduce the deficit it all turns south. The demand leakages are relentless, including expanding pension ...Read More

New home sales

Another uninspiring chart, as sales dipped with the cold weather and only partially recovered, down vs same month last year, and, at best, looking very flat as we enter the ‘prime selling season’ Not to mention inventories are up and the composition of sales was towards condos, last I read: Highlights April ...Read More

French spending cuts outlined

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls Outlines Spending Cuts (WSJ) French Prime Minister Manuel Valls unveiled some details as to how the government aims to extract €50 billion ($69 billion) in savings between 2015 and 2017. Almost reads like he knows savings comes from deficit spending! ;) Mr. Valls indicated for the first ...Read More

CBO estimates lower deficits as health subsidies fall

As suspected Obamacare doesn’t add to the deficit, otherwise the Republicans would have let us know for sure! However, it also means it’s a pro active contractionary bias that will make it that much harder for GDP growth to meet expectations this year. CBO estimates slightly lower deficits as health subsidies fall ...Read More

consumer credit and a few comments

Note the year over year rate of growth: As previously discussed, in order for GDP to grow at last year’s pace all the pieces, ‘on average’ have to do same. And so far, housing and cars are well below last year’s growth rates. And the contribution of net govt spending is well ...Read More