Fed Archive

RT interview

My interview starts at 3:30 ...Read More

new home sales, median household income, greek fin min comments, rail data, kc fed

Another weak number but no surprise as last month’s was suspect on the high side. Highlights One day up, one day down is a fit description for recent housing data. Last week’s declines in housing starts & permits were a surprising blow to the outlook, reversed in part by yesterday’s very strong ...Read More

PMI’s, Housing sales data, Yellon on oil

A few more PMI’s showing weakness: Japan : PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Highlights Manufacturing weakened for a third consecutive month. The flash April manufacturing PMI reading was 49.7, down from 50.3 in March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The output index also slipped below 50 to a reading of 49.7, down ...Read More

credit check, Atlanta Fed

About this time last year I was looking to find signs of the credit expansion needed to ‘replace’ the cuts in Federal deficit spending and couldn’t find anything. Turns out it was the expanded investment chasing high priced oil that supported GDP growth of a bit over 2%. With that now behind ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Retail Sales, Redbook retail sales, small business optimism index, business inventories

Another string of lower than expected releases And 2nd quarter nowcasts are showing about the same as Q1 no bounce yet. Auto sales have a high import component. Note that reports of domestic wholesale auto output and sales have been lower than expected. And note year over year growth decline, though some ...Read More

labor mkt index, ISM services, tax collections, truck sales, lumber

Presumably this means something to the Fed: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights The Fed’s Board of Governors Research Department’s unofficial report on labor market conditions came in weak for March, dropping to minus 0.3 from plus 2.0 in February. There was no text or detail on the unofficial report but highly likely ...Read More

US macro update, FX update

US macro update: So looks to me like it’s all gone bad since the oil price crash, exactly as feared, and the Atlanta Fed most recently lowered it’s Q1 GDP estimate to 0. First, a quick review of the accounting. GDP = spending = sales = income. An increase in spending = ...Read More

personal income and outlays, pending home sales, Dallas Fed

Personal income as reported up .4 with spending only up .1 = increased savings. However, while that counts most of the income gained by those who gained from the oil price decline, I suspect it does not include quite a bit of the income lost by those who got hurt by the ...Read More

new from Bernanke

In case there was any doubt… >    >   (email exchange) >    >   On Mon, Mar 30, 2015 at 11:28 AM, Scott wrote: >    New from Bernanke: Why are interest rates so low? Bad: what matters most for the economy is the real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rate (the market, or nominal, interest rate minus the ...Read More

Credit Check, Fed check

Not much going on this week and not much to concern the Fed? The way they see things, isn’t the point of raising rates to slow credit growth? Are they thinking 0 rates and QE has caused excessive credit expansion? ;) Aha! Real estate related borrowing is picking up a bit- time ...Read More