Category Archives: Fed

Jobless claims, Market pmi, KC Fed manuf index, trucking tonnage, rail traffic

Remain towards the lows, means layoffs still tame: This looks reasonable as well, but the Markit surveys are always suspect, and expectations fell: United States : PMI Services Flash Highlights The manufacturing sector may be sputtering but not the service … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed |

Lockhart on rate hikes

Huh? Has he seen his own Atlanta Fed’s forecast? Might make more sense to say no rate hike unless prospects improve… ;) Fed’s Lockhart sees interest rate ‘liftoff’ by September March 20 (CNBC) — Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, GDP |

mtg purchase apps, architect billings index, oil debt comments, Atlanta Fed GDP forecast

Still no sign of life here: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Despite low mortgage rates, demand for mortgage purchase applications continues to be weak, down 2.0 percent in the March 13 week for a year-on-year rate of only plus 1.0 percent. … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Fed, GDP, Housing, Oil |

Yellen sort of agreed with me in 2009

That’s when I was saying L shaped recover rather than V or even U shaped: Janet Yellen, 2009: My forecasts for output and employment are similar to the Greenbook’s, so I won’t go into the details. I do want to … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

mtg purchase apps, Fed’s Evans, ADP, ISM non manufacturing

Still no sign of a surge in spending here, as apps remain below even last years winter depressed numbers: MBA Purchase Applications Highlights A dip in mortgage rates failed to give much lift to the purchase index which slipped 0.2 … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Housing |

Wells capping sub prime autos, bank margins and income, personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending

Wells pulling back some on sub prime auto loans: Wells Fargo Puts a Ceiling on Subprime Auto Loans And banks in general fighting this: A bit worse than expected. Fewer dollars spent, but more ‘real things’ purchased due to lower … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Credit, Fed, GDP |

Greek bank liquidity, Fed minutes, Architecture Billings Index

As previously discussed, and relayed to the finance minister in Greece, there is no reason to assume the ECB will cut off liquidity to Greek banks. First, those banks are private institutions, and regulated and supervised by the ECB, who … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, CBs, ECB, Fed, Housing |

Jobs, Currency wars, etc.

Heaps stronger than expected: Employment Situation Highlights Today’s employment situation was heavily positive even though the unemployment rate edged up. Payroll jobs gained 257,000 in January after strong increases of 329,000 in December and 423,000 in November. December and November … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Employment, Fed, Greece |

durable goods, Case Shiller, new home sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, PMI services flash, GDP comments, 10 yr vs Fed

Down hard and revisions down hard as well, and year over year growth up less than 1%: Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders unexpectedly fell 3.4 percent in December after dropping 2.1 percent in November. Analysts projected a 0.7 percent … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Economic Releases, Fed, GDP, Housing, Interest Rates |

a couple of ramifications of the 0 rate policy

This traditional source of total personal income growth hasn’t been there this time around due to Fed ‘easing’. The economy is a net receiver of interest, the govt. a net payer: And net interest income hasn’t been growing much for … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |