Fed Archive

Trade, Atlanta Fed, Redbook sales

Trade deficit a bit higher but looks to me like more to come, including revisions. The petroleum gap is set to widen as US production begins to decline and is replaced by imports. And to my prior point, auto imports were up. And further note that global reductions in trade are associated ...Read More

Durables charts, new home sales,FHFA House Price Index, Japan PMI, GDP, Atlanta Fed, Mtg. purch apps, oil comment

Longer term year over year view not looking so good: The cheer leading continues, and sales in the Northeast up 87% looks a bit unsustainable? New Home Sales Highlights The lift off for housing is appearing more and more like it’s straight up. New home sales rose 2.2 percent in May to ...Read More

EU Industrial Production, Credit Check, Atlanta Fed

Even with increasing net exports, over all GDP isn’t benefiting all that much, as fiscal policy and structural reforms that assist exports do so by restricting incomes and domestic demand to achieve ‘competitiveness’. Additionally, negative rates and QE remove some interest income from the economy, which also restricts domestic demand to some ...Read More

payrolls, rail traffic

Most notable is the market reaction- rates up, stocks down, as markets discount higher odds of a Fed rate hike into what markets think is a relatively weak economy, and I tend to agree. Employment Situation Highlights The hawks definitely have some ammunition for the June 16-17 FOMC meeting as the May ...Read More

Fed’s Beige Book

The sharp reduction in oil capex that was driving the economy has predictably shown up first in the oil states like Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, etc. Just as these states led on the way up, they are leading on the way down as well, with that weakness working its way to the ...Read More

macro update

At the beginning of 2013 the US let the FICA tax reduction and some of the Bush tax cuts expire and then in April the sequesters kicked totally some $250 billion of proactive deficit reduction. This cut 2013 growth from what might have been 4% to just over half that, peaking in ...Read More

Comments on transport weakness, Draghi comments, Japan exports to US, new home sales,PMI and Fed indexes chart, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Consumer confidence

Transport Is Saying Consumer Spending Should Slow Further By Steven Hansen When one analyzes the economy, there are always some sections which do better than others. When the economic growth is weak (like currently), several segments can be in contraction while others are expanding. Everything but the needed fiscal relaxation: ECB’s Draghi ...Read More

seasonal adjustments, export reports, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, PMI manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Existing home sales, KC Fed

Note that if/when the adjustments are changed it looks like they make Q4 and Q1 a bit higher and Q2 and Q3 a bit lower. The net adjustments are 0 for the year. Nicole Mayerhauser, chief of BEA’s national income and wealth division, which oversees the GDP report, said in the statement ...Read More

NFIB chart, NY Fed debt chart, April tax collections

Small increase and still down from year end levels, still very low historically, real sales- what matters most- were down: Small Business Optimism Rises, But Future Sales Cloud Outlook The Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points from March to 96.9, this in spite of a quarter of virtually no economic growth. ...Read More

global glympse

Germany : Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales followed a smaller revised 0.1 percent dip in February with a surprisingly hefty 2.3 percent monthly slump in March. The drop was the steepest since December 2013 but friendly base effects were enough to ensure that the first back-to-back decline since April/May 2014 still boosted ...Read More