Category Archives: Fed

Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI

The stock market is happy on the false assumption that bad news means lower rates from the Fed which is good for profits, but that’s another story… Income and spending weak, and prices soft as the Fed continues to fail … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Q3 GDP Up 3.5%

First look, which tends to get revised substantially as more info is released. Consumption looks discouraging, especially longer term, and it appears to be at ‘stall speed': You can see how after tax income keeps ratcheting down: Wages used to … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, GDP |

Weekly credit update comments

I got this email supporting the idea that bank credit expansion has been at the expense of non bank lenders, with low total credit growth. As previously discussed, I don’t see the credit growth necessary to sustain the 3%+ GDP … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Credit, Fed |

There is no right time for the Fed to raise rates!

There is no right time for the Fed to raise rates! Introduction I reject the belief that economy is strong and operating anywhere near full employment. I also reject the belief that a zero-rate policy is inflationary, supports aggregate demand, … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Fed, Government Spending, Interest Rates, Proposal |

Macro update

First this, supporting what I’ve been writing about all along: Here’s Proof That Congress Has Been Dragging Down The Economy For Years By Shane Ferro Oct 8 (Business Insider) — In honor of the new fiscal year, the Brookings Institution … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Germany, Government Spending, UK, USA |

Fed minutes

Bill McBride and I agree this is the key takeaway. That is, the Fed still sees the risks as asymmetrical and therefore prefers to err on the side of ease. So stocks soar on the belief that low rates from … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Inflation | Tagged |

NY Fed analysts discuss expiring benefits and jobs dynamics

So now it’s just me and a few members of the NY Fed surmising the 1.2 million who lost benefits at year end supported employment gains earlier this year: Do Unemployment Benefits Expirations Help Explain the Surge in Job Openings? … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed |

Connecting the Fed’s dots

Hiking in March? ;)

Posted in Fed |

Credit growth still flattening

So much for all the talk about the Fed needing to hike rates because credit growth was accelerating and all that. (Not to mention hiking rates would in fact speed it up, but that’s another story…)

Posted in Credit, Fed |

Fed preview

The Fed’s mandates are full employment, price stability, and low long term rates. And along with who knows what, he has to be seeing these charts: New jobs down for the winter, up some, then back down for several months: … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, Employment, Fed |