Category Archives: Fed

durable goods, Case Shiller, new home sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, PMI services flash, GDP comments, 10 yr vs Fed

Down hard and revisions down hard as well, and year over year growth up less than 1%: Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders unexpectedly fell 3.4 percent in December after dropping 2.1 percent in November. Analysts projected a 0.7 percent … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Economic Releases, Fed, GDP, Housing, Interest Rates |

a couple of ramifications of the 0 rate policy

This traditional source of total personal income growth hasn’t been there this time around due to Fed ‘easing’. The economy is a net receiver of interest, the govt. a net payer: And net interest income hasn’t been growing much for … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

Dallas Fed Survey

Production up, Business activity down: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Highlights Texas factory activity increased again in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose strongly … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

not much here to spook the Fed

This was up 7.2% for Q3 from Q2 and should revert: Exports of goods were up 7.5% and should revert: (this chart hasn’t been updated today but it’s very close) Near stall speed through Q3: The monthly number just reported … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

personal income, home prices, new home sales, Richmond Fed

Personal Income growth remains anemic, particularly when the distribution of income gains is factored in. The gain in consumer spending was all durable goods, which has already reversed as per today’s earlier release. Personal Income and Outlays Highlights The consumer … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Housing |

Yellen vs Mosler

At her press conference Janet Yellen stated that the net effect of the drop in oil prices is that of a tax cut, and therefore supportive of US output and employment. My take is that the cuts in spending due … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Oil |

RT interview

My RT interview starts at the 4 min mark. The cut it into segments that will appear at a later date.

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Comments on crude pricing, the economy, and the banking system

Crude pricing The Saudis are the ‘supplier of last resort’/swing producer. Every day the world buys all the crude the other producers sell to the highest bidder and then go to the Saudis for the last 9-10 million barrels that … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, CBs, Comodities, Credit, Currencies, Fed, GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates, Oil |

Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI

The stock market is happy on the false assumption that bad news means lower rates from the Fed which is good for profits, but that’s another story… Income and spending weak, and prices soft as the Fed continues to fail … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Q3 GDP Up 3.5%

First look, which tends to get revised substantially as more info is released. Consumption looks discouraging, especially longer term, and it appears to be at ‘stall speed': You can see how after tax income keeps ratcheting down: Wages used to … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, GDP |