Category Archives: Fed

Weekly credit update comments

I got this email supporting the idea that bank credit expansion has been at the expense of non bank lenders, with low total credit growth. As previously discussed, I don’t see the credit growth necessary to sustain the 3%+ GDP … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Credit, Fed |

There is no right time for the Fed to raise rates!

There is no right time for the Fed to raise rates! Introduction I reject the belief that economy is strong and operating anywhere near full employment. I also reject the belief that a zero-rate policy is inflationary, supports aggregate demand, … Continue reading

Posted in Deficit, Fed, Government Spending, Interest Rates, Proposal |

Macro update

First this, supporting what I’ve been writing about all along: Here’s Proof That Congress Has Been Dragging Down The Economy For Years By Shane Ferro Oct 8 (Business Insider) — In honor of the new fiscal year, the Brookings Institution … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Germany, Government Spending, UK, USA |

Fed minutes

Bill McBride and I agree this is the key takeaway. That is, the Fed still sees the risks as asymmetrical and therefore prefers to err on the side of ease. So stocks soar on the belief that low rates from … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Inflation | Tagged |

NY Fed analysts discuss expiring benefits and jobs dynamics

So now it’s just me and a few members of the NY Fed surmising the 1.2 million who lost benefits at year end supported employment gains earlier this year: Do Unemployment Benefits Expirations Help Explain the Surge in Job Openings? … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed |

Connecting the Fed’s dots

Hiking in March? ;)

Posted in Fed |

Credit growth still flattening

So much for all the talk about the Fed needing to hike rates because credit growth was accelerating and all that. (Not to mention hiking rates would in fact speed it up, but that’s another story…)

Posted in Credit, Fed |

Fed preview

The Fed’s mandates are full employment, price stability, and low long term rates. And along with who knows what, he has to be seeing these charts: New jobs down for the winter, up some, then back down for several months: … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, Employment, Fed |

Car sales strong! Beige book soft

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 17.45 million annual rate in August, Highest since Jan 2006 By Bill McBride Based on an WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.45 million SAAR in August. That is up 10% from … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

Comments on Professor John Cochrane’s – A Few Things the Fed Has Done Right

A Few Things the Fed Has Done Right The Fed’s plan to maintain a large balance sheet and pay interest on bank reserves is good for financial stability. By John H. Cochrane Aug 21 (WSJ) — As Federal Reserve officials … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Fed | Tagged , |