Fed Archive

seasonal adjustments, export reports, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, PMI manufacturing, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Existing home sales, KC Fed

Note that if/when the adjustments are changed it looks like they make Q4 and Q1 a bit higher and Q2 and Q3 a bit lower. The net adjustments are 0 for the year. Nicole Mayerhauser, chief of BEA’s national income and wealth division, which oversees the GDP report, said in the statement ...Read More

NFIB chart, NY Fed debt chart, April tax collections

Small increase and still down from year end levels, still very low historically, real sales- what matters most- were down: Small Business Optimism Rises, But Future Sales Cloud Outlook The Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points from March to 96.9, this in spite of a quarter of virtually no economic growth. ...Read More

global glympse

Germany : Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales followed a smaller revised 0.1 percent dip in February with a surprisingly hefty 2.3 percent monthly slump in March. The drop was the steepest since December 2013 but friendly base effects were enough to ensure that the first back-to-back decline since April/May 2014 still boosted ...Read More

RT interview

My interview starts at 3:30 ...Read More

new home sales, median household income, greek fin min comments, rail data, kc fed

Another weak number but no surprise as last month’s was suspect on the high side. Highlights One day up, one day down is a fit description for recent housing data. Last week’s declines in housing starts & permits were a surprising blow to the outlook, reversed in part by yesterday’s very strong ...Read More

PMI’s, Housing sales data, Yellon on oil

A few more PMI’s showing weakness: Japan : PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Highlights Manufacturing weakened for a third consecutive month. The flash April manufacturing PMI reading was 49.7, down from 50.3 in March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The output index also slipped below 50 to a reading of 49.7, down ...Read More

credit check, Atlanta Fed

About this time last year I was looking to find signs of the credit expansion needed to ‘replace’ the cuts in Federal deficit spending and couldn’t find anything. Turns out it was the expanded investment chasing high priced oil that supported GDP growth of a bit over 2%. With that now behind ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, Retail Sales, Redbook retail sales, small business optimism index, business inventories

Another string of lower than expected releases And 2nd quarter nowcasts are showing about the same as Q1 no bounce yet. Auto sales have a high import component. Note that reports of domestic wholesale auto output and sales have been lower than expected. And note year over year growth decline, though some ...Read More

labor mkt index, ISM services, tax collections, truck sales, lumber

Presumably this means something to the Fed: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights The Fed’s Board of Governors Research Department’s unofficial report on labor market conditions came in weak for March, dropping to minus 0.3 from plus 2.0 in February. There was no text or detail on the unofficial report but highly likely ...Read More

US macro update, FX update

US macro update: So looks to me like it’s all gone bad since the oil price crash, exactly as feared, and the Atlanta Fed most recently lowered it’s Q1 GDP estimate to 0. First, a quick review of the accounting. GDP = spending = sales = income. An increase in spending = ...Read More