Fed Archive
Car sales, ISM Services, Atlanta Fed, energy recession chart
Economic Releases, Energy, Fed, Retail Sales, USA
Mar 04, 2022
Low and slipping: GDP tracking at 0:
...Read More
Retail sales, Industrial production, Interest payments, Japan profits, Euro area fiscal balance
China, Economic Releases, Fed, Interest Rates, Japan, Retail Sales
May 15, 2019
Weak and weaker than expected: Highlights The second quarter gets off to a stumbling start pulled down by a 0.2 percent headline decline in an April retail sales report where the core details show unexpected weakness. Excluding autos, in which sales were already expected to fall sharply, April sales managed only a
...Read More
Consumer credit, Mania comment, Fed on rates and inflation
Economic Releases, Fed, Inflation, Interest Rates
Feb 08, 2018
It’s been decelerating all year with a year end move up that’s likely to be reversed as personal income growth continues to be very low: Highlights Consumer borrowing increased in December, up $18.4 billion vs an upwardly revised $31.0 billion in November which is the largest monthly increase since a break in
...Read More
Credit check, Expectations vs spending, Inflation, Comments on Fed policy
Economic Releases, Fed, Inflation
Oct 02, 2017
You may be hearing about ‘spike’ in lending last week, so I’ll try to give you some perspective using commercial and industrial lending charts before just showing year over year changes: In this 10 year chart you can see how the growth in lending suddenly slowed back in November 2016. You can
...Read More
Housing starts, Consumer price index, Philly Fed survey
Nice move up after a large move down. Note that the average of the last two months is about where this series has been. And, again, it’s the permits that count, and they are about the same as last month. And not to forget mortgage applications to buy homes fell a full
...Read More
Euro banks, Fed’s labor market index, NFIB chart
Banking, Employment, Fed
Feb 09, 2016
Getting more obvious it’s ‘spreading’ much like during the sub prime days, as previously discussed? European banks face major cash crunch European banks may have to pare down assets to bolster capital reserves as cheap oil is taking a toll on portfolios of energy-exposed loans. It’s slowing, whatever it is… ;) Labor
...Read More
Japan, China, Fed comment, Capex cutbacks, South Korea
This is the yen yield curve after over 20 years of a 0 rate policy, massive QE, and now negative overnight rates. Maybe now the economy will finally respond. :( (And how good can the BOJ think the economy is?) The western educated kids/monetarists who’ve taken control don’t seem to be doing
...Read More
GDP, Saudi oil production, KC Fed, Chicago PMI, Shale Italy and Japan comments
As expected, the deceleration continues, and over the next couple of years it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire year gets revised down substantially: GDP Highlights Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a
...Read More
Economic Index, Storefronts, Fed statement, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders
Also tracing the weakness back to the oil capex collapse: Econintersect’s Economic Index declined and is barely positive – and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic
...Read More
Recession warnings, Dallas Fed
Reads like we are already in recession… Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass Jan 24 (WSJ) — Every U.S. recession since World War II has been foretold by sharp declines in industrial production, corporate profits and the stock market. Industrial production has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, and
...Read More