Fed Archive

Japan, China, Fed comment, Capex cutbacks, South Korea

This is the yen yield curve after over 20 years of a 0 rate policy, massive QE, and now negative overnight rates. Maybe now the economy will finally respond. :( (And how good can the BOJ think the economy is?) The western educated kids/monetarists who’ve taken control don’t seem to be doing ...Read More

GDP, Saudi oil production, KC Fed, Chicago PMI, Shale Italy and Japan comments

As expected, the deceleration continues, and over the next couple of years it wouldn’t surprise me if the entire year gets revised down substantially: GDP Highlights Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a ...Read More

Economic Index, Storefronts, Fed statement, Pending home sales, Durable goods orders

Also tracing the weakness back to the oil capex collapse: Econintersect’s Economic Index declined and is barely positive – and still remains at the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. The tracked sectors of the economy which showed growth were mostly offset by the sectors in contraction. Our economic ...Read More

Recession warnings, Dallas Fed

Reads like we are already in recession… Recession Warnings May Not Come to Pass Jan 24 (WSJ) — Every U.S. recession since World War II has been foretold by sharp declines in industrial production, corporate profits and the stock market. Industrial production has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, and ...Read More

Chicago Fed, existing home sales

Still negative: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Highlights December was a weak month for the U.S. economy but a little less weak than November, based on the national activity index which improved to minus 0.22 from minus 0.36 (revised lower from minus 0.30). The improvement is centered in the production component as ...Read More

Fed comment, Retail sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial production, Business inventories, Consumer sentiment

Looks like the Fed hiked during a recession. Should make for interesting Congressional testimony… Maybe the hundreds of $ millions they spend on economic research isn’t enough??? ;) Sales remain at recession levels: Retail Sales Highlights Retail sales proved disappointing in December, down 0.1 percent in a headline that is not skewed ...Read More

ECB, Fed, Rail traffic

Looks like they are again making hawkish noises, taking the lead of the Fed: ECB wary of further action despite uncertain future By: Balazs Koranyi and John O’Donnell Jan 14 (Reuters) * Many governors sceptical of need for further action in near term * Governors urge countries to act instead with reform ...Read More

Spending and tax bill, Chicago Fed, CRE lending

800 billion over 10 years is something, but not enough to turn things around as it’s maybe .25% of GDP per year or so. Historically it’s taken a good 5% of GDP deficit to reverse a decline, which today means close to a 1T deficit annually. And interesting how they just jumped ...Read More

PMI services index, KC Fed

Much lower than expected from the service that tends to run much higher than the others. Fed rate hike already working! ;) PMI Services Flash Highlights The services PMI is slowing sharply this month, to 53.7 vs 56.1 for the final November reading and vs 56.5 for the flash reading. This is ...Read More

Rate hike comment, Container traffic, Employment comment

So a Fed rate hike is nothing more than the federal government deciding to pay more interest on what’s called ‘the public debt’. By immediately paying more interest on balances in reserve accounts at the Fed the cost of funds to the banking system is supported at that higher level, all of ...Read More