Fed Archive

Pending Home Sales, Atlanta Fed, MTG Purch. Apps

Confirms other indicators of housing a bit volatile but still depressed and going nowhere: Pending Home Sales Index Highlights In a negative for the summer home-sale outlook, pending sales of existing homes fell a sharp 1.8 percent in June. The low-end Econoday forecast was for a gain of 0.4 percent. The year-on-year ...Read More

Phily Fed State Index, Bank Lending

Looks like once 10 states go bad the rest follow? Bank loan growth is not accelerating: ...Read More

Chicago Fed, KC Fed, Japan Exports

Note the details and the conclusion: source: Econoday Highlights June proved to be a slightly stronger month for the economy than expected, based on the national activity index which came in at plus 0.08 vs Econoday expectations for a 0.05 dip. The 3-month average is still in the negative column though just ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, 2004 vs 2015 US data, EU trade

The Atlanta Fed forecast as of July 14 is was +2.3% annualized for Q2, which is far below initial estimates of most professional forecasters, and below their current forecasts as well, and likely to be lowered further due to recent data. The first government estimate for Q2 GDP will be released on ...Read More

Claims, Phili Fed, Housing index

Down a touch but the 4 week moving average still moving higher: Highlights Auto retooling is clouding initial jobless claims data which fell 15,000 in the July 11 week to 281,000. But the 4-week average, inflated by a 14,000 spike in the prior week, rose 3,250 to a 282,500 level that’s more ...Read More

Fed Testimony

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress By Janet Yellen Looking forward, prospects are favorable for further improvement in the U.S. labor market and the economy more broadly. Low oil prices Still seems to leave out the fact that a dollar saved by the buyer of oil is a dollar lost by ...Read More

Trade, Atlanta Fed, Redbook sales

Trade deficit a bit higher but looks to me like more to come, including revisions. The petroleum gap is set to widen as US production begins to decline and is replaced by imports. And to my prior point, auto imports were up. And further note that global reductions in trade are associated ...Read More

Durables charts, new home sales,FHFA House Price Index, Japan PMI, GDP, Atlanta Fed, Mtg. purch apps, oil comment

Longer term year over year view not looking so good: The cheer leading continues, and sales in the Northeast up 87% looks a bit unsustainable? New Home Sales Highlights The lift off for housing is appearing more and more like it’s straight up. New home sales rose 2.2 percent in May to ...Read More

EU Industrial Production, Credit Check, Atlanta Fed

Even with increasing net exports, over all GDP isn’t benefiting all that much, as fiscal policy and structural reforms that assist exports do so by restricting incomes and domestic demand to achieve ‘competitiveness’. Additionally, negative rates and QE remove some interest income from the economy, which also restricts domestic demand to some ...Read More

payrolls, rail traffic

Most notable is the market reaction- rates up, stocks down, as markets discount higher odds of a Fed rate hike into what markets think is a relatively weak economy, and I tend to agree. Employment Situation Highlights The hawks definitely have some ammunition for the June 16-17 FOMC meeting as the May ...Read More