Category Archives: Fed

Yellen sort of agreed with me in 2009

That’s when I was saying L shaped recover rather than V or even U shaped: Janet Yellen, 2009: My forecasts for output and employment are similar to the Greenbook’s, so I won’t go into the details. I do want to … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

mtg purchase apps, Fed’s Evans, ADP, ISM non manufacturing

Still no sign of a surge in spending here, as apps remain below even last years winter depressed numbers: MBA Purchase Applications Highlights A dip in mortgage rates failed to give much lift to the purchase index which slipped 0.2 … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Housing |

Wells capping sub prime autos, bank margins and income, personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing, construction spending

Wells pulling back some on sub prime auto loans: Wells Fargo Puts a Ceiling on Subprime Auto Loans And banks in general fighting this: A bit worse than expected. Fewer dollars spent, but more ‘real things’ purchased due to lower … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Credit, Fed, GDP |

Greek bank liquidity, Fed minutes, Architecture Billings Index

As previously discussed, and relayed to the finance minister in Greece, there is no reason to assume the ECB will cut off liquidity to Greek banks. First, those banks are private institutions, and regulated and supervised by the ECB, who … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, CBs, ECB, Fed, Housing |

Jobs, Currency wars, etc.

Heaps stronger than expected: Employment Situation Highlights Today’s employment situation was heavily positive even though the unemployment rate edged up. Payroll jobs gained 257,000 in January after strong increases of 329,000 in December and 423,000 in November. December and November … Continue reading

Posted in Currencies, Employment, Fed, Greece |

durable goods, Case Shiller, new home sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, PMI services flash, GDP comments, 10 yr vs Fed

Down hard and revisions down hard as well, and year over year growth up less than 1%: Durable Goods Orders Highlights Durables orders unexpectedly fell 3.4 percent in December after dropping 2.1 percent in November. Analysts projected a 0.7 percent … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Economic Releases, Fed, GDP, Housing, Interest Rates |

a couple of ramifications of the 0 rate policy

This traditional source of total personal income growth hasn’t been there this time around due to Fed ‘easing’. The economy is a net receiver of interest, the govt. a net payer: And net interest income hasn’t been growing much for … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

Dallas Fed Survey

Production up, Business activity down: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Highlights Texas factory activity increased again in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose strongly … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

not much here to spook the Fed

This was up 7.2% for Q3 from Q2 and should revert: Exports of goods were up 7.5% and should revert: (this chart hasn’t been updated today but it’s very close) Near stall speed through Q3: The monthly number just reported … Continue reading

Posted in Fed |

personal income, home prices, new home sales, Richmond Fed

Personal Income growth remains anemic, particularly when the distribution of income gains is factored in. The gain in consumer spending was all durable goods, which has already reversed as per today’s earlier release. Personal Income and Outlays Highlights The consumer … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Housing |