Category Archives: Employment

more seriously worrisome releases today

Chicago PMI New Home Sales Pending Home Sales Index Personal Income and Outlays Jobless Claims Durable Goods Orders Highlights The headline number for durables looked good for October but the core number notably disappointed. Durables orders rebounded 0.4 percent in … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Releases, Employment, GDP |

‘not in labor force, want a job now’ chart

Gone up about 500,000 since benefits expired at year end for 1.2 million

Posted in Employment |

Employment and related commentary

Seems universally agreed the labor market is ‘improving’ even as the jobs chart has been downward sloping since the peak in April, wage growth has softened from relatively low levels, and the work week fell back some. It’s all screaming … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Government Spending |

mtg purchase index, ADP

Finally up a bit for the week! But now down some 13% vs last year. Construction, exports, factory orders, all in retreat, and energy investment now on the edge of collapse as oil prices fall. Q3 already revised down some, … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Housing |

Bill Mitchell on the secular stagnation hoax

The secular stagnation hoax

Posted in Employment, Government Spending, Interest Rates |

Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI

The stock market is happy on the false assumption that bad news means lower rates from the Fed which is good for profits, but that’s another story… Income and spending weak, and prices soft as the Fed continues to fail … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Talking points for 11am WRKO radio interview

Jobs: Just keeping up with population growth- 59% three months in a row, not at all ‘recovering’ as in prior cycles. So seems the extra jobs are from underestimating population growth? Spending- working its way lower after the tax hikes … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP |

Employment report

A lot better than expected, and markets reacting accordingly, and the narrative about the 1.2 million people losing benefits at year end ‘inflating’ the jobs number seems not material based on the numbers so far released: Employment Situation Highlights The … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |

NY Fed analysts discuss expiring benefits and jobs dynamics

So now it’s just me and a few members of the NY Fed surmising the 1.2 million who lost benefits at year end supported employment gains earlier this year: Do Unemployment Benefits Expirations Help Explain the Surge in Job Openings? … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed |

Preview of Friday’s employment report

The household survey has been in decline for several months, with lower highs and lower lows: Same with the non farm payroll report: Analysts are counting on Friday’s report showing August being revised up substantially and September payrolls to be … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |