Employment Archive

Mtg purchase apps, new home sales, Payroll taxes

Down some, still depressed and going nowhere: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell back by 1 percent in the March 18 week, bringing down the year-on-year increase to a still very strong 25 percent, though some loss of momentum in this component is evident. Refinancing applications continued in ...Read More

Retail sales, Redbook retail sales, Housing index, Business inventories and sales, Empire manufacturing, MEW, Atlanta Fed

Just plain bad. Including last month’s downward revision. And, again, sales = income, and lower income means less to spend in the next period: Retail Sales Highlights Consumer spending did not get off to a good start after all in 2016 as big downward revisions to January retail sales badly upstage respectable ...Read More

Employment, Trade

Education employment was mysteriously down big last month and up big this month, so best to average the two months, which would mean about 205,000 new jobs each month, which is about where it’s been. However, in any case hours worded and average pay were both down, which means personal income and ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EU inflation, G20 statement, Virginia jobless claims

As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMI Highlights Another month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, ...Read More

Philly Fed, leading indicators, jobless claims

Another bad one, and supports the possibility of another downward revision to industrial production next month: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Highlights The Philly Fed report, much like Tuesday’s Empire State report, is pointing to continuing trouble for the nation’s factory sector. The general business conditions index came in at minus 2.8 ...Read More

Euro banks, Fed’s labor market index, NFIB chart

Getting more obvious it’s ‘spreading’ much like during the sub prime days, as previously discussed? European banks face major cash crunch European banks may have to pare down assets to bolster capital reserves as cheap oil is taking a toll on portfolios of energy-exposed loans. It’s slowing, whatever it is… ;) Labor ...Read More

Inventories, Payrolls, Trade

This is getting out of control. Sales are slowing faster than inventories are being sold. A weak print and year over year growth continues to decelerate as per the chart: Employment Situation Highlights Headline weakness masks an otherwise solid employment report for January. Nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000 vs expectations for 188,000. December ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, Car sales comments, ADP, ISM services, Exxon capex, BOJ comment

Up last week now back down as this sector remains in prolonged depression: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights The purchase index has been posting outsized gains this year but not in the January 29 week, falling 7.0 percent. The refinance index, however, did post a gain in the week, up 0.3 percent. Low ...Read More

Consumer Credit, Jobs comments

This is going nowhere: Consumer Credit Highlights Revolving credit showed substantial life in November, up $5.7 billion and helping to boost total consumer credit by $14.0 billion. Nonrevolving credit, boosted by auto financing and student loans, has been the foundation of strength for this series during the whole recovery, but less so ...Read More

Jobs, Wholesale trade, China, Rail traffic

Anyone notice that the annual growth rate of employment continues the deterioration that began with the collapse in oil capex? Or that, once again, it looks like most all the new jobs were taken by people previously considered out of the labor force? And the anemic wage growth also contributes to the ...Read More