Category Archives: Employment

Personal income and outlays, employment cost index, Chicago PMI

The stock market is happy on the false assumption that bad news means lower rates from the Fed which is good for profits, but that’s another story… Income and spending weak, and prices soft as the Fed continues to fail … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed, Inflation |

Talking points for 11am WRKO radio interview

Jobs: Just keeping up with population growth- 59% three months in a row, not at all ‘recovering’ as in prior cycles. So seems the extra jobs are from underestimating population growth? Spending- working its way lower after the tax hikes … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, GDP |

Employment report

A lot better than expected, and markets reacting accordingly, and the narrative about the 1.2 million people losing benefits at year end ‘inflating’ the jobs number seems not material based on the numbers so far released: Employment Situation Highlights The … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |

NY Fed analysts discuss expiring benefits and jobs dynamics

So now it’s just me and a few members of the NY Fed surmising the 1.2 million who lost benefits at year end supported employment gains earlier this year: Do Unemployment Benefits Expirations Help Explain the Surge in Job Openings? … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Fed |

Preview of Friday’s employment report

The household survey has been in decline for several months, with lower highs and lower lows: Same with the non farm payroll report: Analysts are counting on Friday’s report showing August being revised up substantially and September payrolls to be … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |

Fed preview

The Fed’s mandates are full employment, price stability, and low long term rates. And along with who knows what, he has to be seeing these charts: New jobs down for the winter, up some, then back down for several months: … Continue reading

Posted in Credit, Employment, Fed |

Fed’s consumer survey, employment slips as suspected

This implies we need a larger deficit than otherwise to close the output gap/sustain full employment, has higher income earners tend to generate more unspent income/more savings than lower income earners. Looks to me like the “1.2 million who lost … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |

Charts on labor force participation rates- not good!

Hard to believe there isn’t a lot of slack indicated here. Note that it’s always gone up during an expansion, until now: Full size image And isolating the ‘prime working age’ removes the ‘aging factor’ Full size image Full size … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |

US jobs rose since ’08 crisis, but pay is 23% less

US jobs rose since ’08 crisis, but pay is 23% less: report Aug 11 (Reuters) — Jobs growth in the U.S. since the 2008 recession has been undermined by lower wages, with workers earning an average 23 percent less than … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |

Kudlow on year end benefit expiration driving H1 employment gains

The question is whether this front loaded 2014 hiring. If it did, H2 employment gains could be materially lower. Kudlow: Jobs are the best kind of welfare “To be sure, there are signs that employment in the country is rising … Continue reading

Posted in Employment |