Employment Archive

Debt and Recession, Jolts

This shows how private sector credit deceleration is associated with recessions. It’s about the need for those spending more than their incomes to offset those spending less than their incomes. And most often private sector deficit spending decelerates some time after public sector deficit spending decelerates and fails to provide the income ...Read More

Employment chart, China trade, SNB

The red line tends to drag down the blue line, often when deficit spending gets too low: Exports drop again, imports drop more, so the trade surplus grows, and the US should see more imports and fewer exports, while euro zone imports are down which adds to their trade surplus: China’s Trade ...Read More


Much higher than expected, so unless next month’s number settles back down the Fed will be expected to hike rates some. Note from the chart that the last few November releases showed similar spikes followed by much lower prints: Employment Situation Highlights Bring on that rate hike! Nonfarm payrolls surged 271,000 in ...Read More

Job Cuts, Yellen Comment, Saudi Pricing, German Factory Orders, Maersk Job Cuts, China Trade Show

Down a bit but still trending higher since the oil price collapse: Seems she still doesn’t realize negative rates are just another tax: FED’S YELLEN: IF ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED, NEGATIVE RATES AND OTHER TOOLS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE This implies the rest of Saudi pricing remains the same from November, when ...Read More

Atlanta Fed, German Engineering Orders, Misc News, Redbook retail sales, North Dakota, Factory orders

Down to 1.9 for Q4, after being very close for Q1, Q2 and Q3: German Engineering Orders Hit by Lower Demand From China By Nina Adam Nov 2 (WSJ) — Germany’s VDMA engineering federation said Monday that its “plant and machinery makers are battling against global markets’ adversities.” German mechanical engineering orders ...Read More

Industrial Production, JOLTS, Consumer Sentiment

The chart says it all. Not good! Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production continues to sink, down 0.2 percent in September which is slightly better than the Econoday consensus for minus 0.3 percent. The manufacturing component continues to sink, down 0.1 percent for a second straight decline and the fourth decline in five ...Read More

Capex Revision, Gallup Spending Survey, PMI, ISM Non Mfg Index

A gauge of U.S. investment plans slipped more in August than initially estimated, giving a cautionary sign for the economic outlook. New orders for non-military capital goods outside of aviation fell 0.8 percent in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The government had previously reported that this gauge, which is a ...Read More

Employment, Atlanta Fed, Draghi comments

A shocker for most analysts/entirely in line with my narrative of insufficient deficit spending-public or private-to offset unspent income, aka demand leakages. And it’s only going to get worse until appropriate fiscal adjustments are implemented. The cut in oil capex, which was the only thing supporting growth after the tax hikes and ...Read More

Challenger Job Cuts, Claims, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Looks like it started trending higher after oil prices collapsed: Nothing happening here yet, I suspect it’s at least partially about restrictions on eligibility, etc. Bad: United States : ISM Mfg Index Highlights The ISM index, like nearly all other September indications, is pointing to trouble for the factory sector. At 50.2, ...Read More

Exports, Energy Layoffs, Tax data, Restaurant Performance Index

This is a prelude to the reality of soft exports and rising imports impacting GDP reports: U.S. Goods Exports Plummet as Dollar Rises, Commodity Prices Fall Sept 29 (WSJ) — Exports of goods slid a seasonally adjusted 3.2% to $123.09 billion as overseas sales of industrial supplies—which includes oil—autos, consumer goods and ...Read More