Employment Archive

Redbook Retail Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, PMI Services, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, Oil Capex, Truck Tonnage

Still bad: source: Econoday.com Softening: source: Econoday.com I don’t put much weight on Markit surveys, but the optimism comment is interesting: source: Econoday.com Highlights Service sector growth is strengthening slightly this month based on Markit’s July flash index which is up 4 tenths to a very solid 55.2. New orders are at ...Read More

Claims, Phili Fed, Housing index

Down a touch but the 4 week moving average still moving higher: Highlights Auto retooling is clouding initial jobless claims data which fell 15,000 in the July 11 week to 281,000. But the 4-week average, inflated by a 14,000 spike in the prior week, rose 3,250 to a 282,500 level that’s more ...Read More

NFIB index, retail sales, Redbook retail sales

When it was going up it made headlines. On the way down not a word… United States : NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights Small business optimism fell very sharply in June, down 4.2 points to 94.1 with 8 of 10 components falling and pointing to weakness for the second half of ...Read More

Fed labor market index, ISM non manufacturing index, Bank lending, Greece

Prior month revised lower and this month lower so Fed that much less likely to raise rates: Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Growth in the nation’s labor market remains subdued with the labor market conditions index at plus 0.8 in June vs a revised plus 0.9 in May. The reading is barely ...Read More

NFIB employment, BOJ solvency, Non Farm Payrolls, Claims, Factory Orders

The cheer leaders didn’t bother to report on this they way they did when employment was increasing: U.S. small business hiring takes a breather in June: NFIB July 1 (Reuters) — The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly survey of members found hiring was little changed last month. Fifty-two percent ...Read More

Consumer Sentiment, producer prices, summer jobs

Yes, it’s a bit of a rebound from last month, and being touted as proof of a strong recovery, but it also looks like the drift down may still be in progress, much like the consumer sales showed disturbingly declining rates of annual growth even though the recent release was an uptick: ...Read More

Redbook retail sales, small business index, QE comment, wholesale trade, jolts

Getting worse instead better in Q2: It’s up which is good, but not even back to q1 January high and below historic ‘good economy’ levels: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Highlights The small business optimism index came in well above expectations, at 98.3 for a very solid 1.4 point gain from April’s ...Read More

Labor market index, Container index

Labor Market Conditions Index Highlights Labor market conditions are improving with the index rising to plus 1.3 in May vs an upward revised minus 0.5 percent in April. The gain underscores Friday’s very strong employment report as well as the long run of very favorable jobless claims reports. Still, 1.3 isn’t that ...Read More

payrolls, rail traffic

Most notable is the market reaction- rates up, stocks down, as markets discount higher odds of a Fed rate hike into what markets think is a relatively weak economy, and I tend to agree. Employment Situation Highlights The hawks definitely have some ammunition for the June 16-17 FOMC meeting as the May ...Read More

productivity, job cuts, claims

Seems this has to come from ‘overhiring’ or very odd seasonal adjustments? And many of the 1.2 million people who lost benefits Jan 14 and took menial jobs that didn’t add to output? Same happening as benefits expire? Should normalize through either more output or fewer jobs? Productivity and Costs Highlights The ...Read More