Employment Archive

Capex Revision, Gallup Spending Survey, PMI, ISM Non Mfg Index

A gauge of U.S. investment plans slipped more in August than initially estimated, giving a cautionary sign for the economic outlook. New orders for non-military capital goods outside of aviation fell 0.8 percent in August, the Commerce Department said on Friday. The government had previously reported that this gauge, which is a ...Read More

Employment, Atlanta Fed, Draghi comments

A shocker for most analysts/entirely in line with my narrative of insufficient deficit spending-public or private-to offset unspent income, aka demand leakages. And it’s only going to get worse until appropriate fiscal adjustments are implemented. The cut in oil capex, which was the only thing supporting growth after the tax hikes and ...Read More

Challenger Job Cuts, Claims, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Looks like it started trending higher after oil prices collapsed: Nothing happening here yet, I suspect it’s at least partially about restrictions on eligibility, etc. Bad: United States : ISM Mfg Index Highlights The ISM index, like nearly all other September indications, is pointing to trouble for the factory sector. At 50.2, ...Read More

Exports, Energy Layoffs, Tax data, Restaurant Performance Index

This is a prelude to the reality of soft exports and rising imports impacting GDP reports: U.S. Goods Exports Plummet as Dollar Rises, Commodity Prices Fall Sept 29 (WSJ) — Exports of goods slid a seasonally adjusted 3.2% to $123.09 billion as overseas sales of industrial supplies—which includes oil—autos, consumer goods and ...Read More

Mtg Purchase Apps, Chicago PMI, ADP, Euro Comment

This is still going nowhere, and, most recently, trending lower, and obviously not responding positively to the ultra low rates of the last several years: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights After surging in the prior week following the FOMC’s decision against a rate hike, mortgage activity fell back in the September 25 week. ...Read More

Redbook Retail Sales, Richmond Fed, Architectural Index, Mtg Purchase Index, Chemical Activity Barometer, China, Unemployment Duration Chart

No sign of improvement: Bad: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Highlights Early indications on the September factory sector are negative and now include a minus 5 headline from the Richmond Fed. New orders, unfortunately, are even more deeply in the negative column at minus 12 which points to even weaker activity in the ...Read More

School and Unemployment, Spain Conference Link

How Have Prime-Age Workers in School Affected the Labor Market? Just one of several possible factors keeping the participation rate down and the reported unemployment rate lower than otherwise, which in my narrative are the consequences of low aggregate demand/the federal deficit is too small, etc. From the St. Louis Fed: In ...Read More

JOLTS, Redbook retail sales, Mexican inflation

More openings, same quits, fewer hires. Whatever all that means… United States : JOLTS Highlights Job openings were up sharply in July, to 5.753 million from an upwardly revised 5.323 million in June. The job openings rate rose to 3.9 percent in July following three prior months at 3.6 percent. Professional & ...Read More

Fed comments and charts, Employment from outside the labor force, Public sector employment, Small Business Index, Labor market conditions index

The reason the Fed is talking hike is because they believe the continued modest growth is reducing the excess capacity in the economy, and they are concerned about hitting the wall of full employment with their 0 rate policy and multi $ trillion portfolio, both of which they believe to be highly ...Read More


First, note that the year over year growth rate has been decelerating since the oil price collapse: And that for all practical purposes the decline in the unemployment rate is due to the decline in the labor force participation rate, which is unique to this cycle and to me entirely due to ...Read More