Employment Archive

Employment, China

Employment generates income and spending. The gap vs the pre-covid path is closing at an ever slowing rate. And the cost of living is rising faster than wages, which exacts a toll as well. These are inflation-adjusted: This came out last week: ...Read More

New manufacturers orders, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, rents, oil prices

This component is going nowhere: Still trying to catch up from the oil capex collapse of 2016 and covid collapse: Not good: This is an all time low as people scramble to get extra jobs to deal with higher prices, like paying rent, for example: Oil prices taking a breather with the ...Read More

ADP, Euro inflation, Mtg purchase apps, Loan officer survey, Saudi output, jobs

Highlights ADP sees the private payroll reading in Friday’s employment report coming in at 178,000. But ADP has been wild lately, evident in its sharp 33,000 upward revision to June which is now at 191,000. Econoday expectations are calling for 175,000 in private payroll growth in Friday’s report and 178,000 in total ...Read More

Mtg purchase apps, new home sales, Payroll taxes

Down some, still depressed and going nowhere: MBA Mortgage Applications Highlights Purchase applications for home mortgages fell back by 1 percent in the March 18 week, bringing down the year-on-year increase to a still very strong 25 percent, though some loss of momentum in this component is evident. Refinancing applications continued in ...Read More

Retail sales, Redbook retail sales, Housing index, Business inventories and sales, Empire manufacturing, MEW, Atlanta Fed

Just plain bad. Including last month’s downward revision. And, again, sales = income, and lower income means less to spend in the next period: Retail Sales Highlights Consumer spending did not get off to a good start after all in 2016 as big downward revisions to January retail sales badly upstage respectable ...Read More

Employment, Trade

Education employment was mysteriously down big last month and up big this month, so best to average the two months, which would mean about 205,000 new jobs each month, which is about where it’s been. However, in any case hours worded and average pay were both down, which means personal income and ...Read More

Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EU inflation, G20 statement, Virginia jobless claims

As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMI Highlights Another month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, ...Read More

Philly Fed, leading indicators, jobless claims

Another bad one, and supports the possibility of another downward revision to industrial production next month: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey Highlights The Philly Fed report, much like Tuesday’s Empire State report, is pointing to continuing trouble for the nation’s factory sector. The general business conditions index came in at minus 2.8 ...Read More

Euro banks, Fed’s labor market index, NFIB chart

Getting more obvious it’s ‘spreading’ much like during the sub prime days, as previously discussed? European banks face major cash crunch European banks may have to pare down assets to bolster capital reserves as cheap oil is taking a toll on portfolios of energy-exposed loans. It’s slowing, whatever it is… ;) Labor ...Read More

Inventories, Payrolls, Trade

This is getting out of control. Sales are slowing faster than inventories are being sold. A weak print and year over year growth continues to decelerate as per the chart: Employment Situation Highlights Headline weakness masks an otherwise solid employment report for January. Nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000 vs expectations for 188,000. December ...Read More