Hoenig Urges Fed to Raise Interest Rates

This from the Fed’s longest serving policy maker, who remains hopelessly out of paradigm.

(The ‘encourage individuals to save’ bit is particularly telling.)


Hoenig Urges Fed to Raise Interest Rates

May 28 (CNBC) —Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig, the central bank’s longest-serving policy maker, said the U.S. needs to raise interest rates to encourage individuals to save and avoid future asset bubbles.

Posted in Fed

Alwaleed: Saudis Seek Oil Price of $70-$80

This is the second time he’s said this in the last couple of weeks.

If he’s right about the Saudis wanting that price, that’s where the price will go.


Alwaleed: Saudis Seek Oil Price of $70-$80

May 29 (CNBC) —Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said an oil price of $70 to $80 a barrel is in the best interests of Saudi Arabia because it diminishes the urgency in the U.S. and Europe to develop alternative energy sources.

“We don’t want the West to go and find alternatives,” Alwaleed, a nephew of Saudi King Abdullah, said in an interview on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” scheduled for broadcast tomorrow. “The higher the price of oil goes, the more they have incentives to go and find alternatives.”

The rebellion in Libya, political turmoil in Bahrain and speculative buying are responsible for driving oil prices to more than $100 a barrel, Alwaleed said. Crude for July delivery rose 36 cents to settle at $100.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Prices have increased 35 percent in the past year.

Alwaleed, who owns Citigroup Inc. (C) shares and ranks 26th on Forbes magazine’s list of the world’s richest billionaires with a net worth of $19.6 billion, said he continues to invest in the U.S. and that the nation is “down, for sure, but it is not out.” Standard & Poor’s lowered its U.S. credit-rating outlook on April 18 to negative, citing the widening budget deficit.

Saudi Arabia needs to enact laws that allow for greater public participation in government, Alwaleed said. U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration is seeking to encourage pro-democracy movements inspired by those that ousted longtime leaders in Tunisia and Egypt as part of the so-called Arab Spring to create broader, regional changes.

G8: Deficit Terrorism Leads Agenda

In the land of the blind, the one eyed man gets his good eye poked out.

While the statement regarding the US is perhaps a tad on the soft side, globally, political will and public support appears firmly in place for further stagnation and a too large output gap for the foreseeable future.

World Recovery Is Gaining Strength, Watch Debt: G8

May 27 (Reuters) — The Group of Eight leaders agreed on Friday that the global economy recovery was becoming more “self-sustained,” although higher commodity prices were hampering further growth.

In a communique to be issued at the end of a two-day summit in France, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, European nations, the United States and Japan all agreed to ensure their public finances were sustainable.

“The global recovery is gaining strength and is becoming more self-sustained. However, downside risks remain, and internal and external imbalances are still a concern,” the communique said.

“The sharp increase in commodity prices and their excessive volatility pose a significant headwind to the recovery. In this context, we agreed to remain focused on the action required to enhance the sustainability of public finances, to strengthen the recovery and foster employment, to reduce risks and ensure strong, sustainable and balanced growth, including through structural reforms.

Europe has adopted a broad package of measures to deal with the sovereign debt crisis faced by a few countries, and it will continue to address the situation with determination and to pursue rigorous fiscal consolidation alongside structural reforms to support growth.

The United States will put in place a clear and credible medium-term fiscal consolidation framework, consistent with considerations of job creation and economic growth.

In Japan, while providing resources for the reconstruction after the disaster, the authorities will also address the issue of sustainability of public finances.”

Juncker, EU minister quoted

Juncker, EU minister and erstwhile unofficial IMF policy spokeman:

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   Referring to questions about Greece’s prospects for restructuring in the absence of a
>   stabilization course:
>   

“If the donkey were a cat it could climb a tree. But it is not a cat. Nevertheless, this is a question that worries many people. My answer to it is almost a little theological: I do not believe that this question will ever be asked.”

>   
>   This interview out a couple days ago in Der Spiegel was priceless ( and informative)… he’s
>   being asked about why he denied the emergency meeting rumored some days ago about
>   Greece leaving EMU when it was true…
>   

“SPIEGEL: Are you saying that, as a finance minister in the age of global capital markets, you cannot tell people the truth?

Juncker: I do not have a ready answer to your question…”

Juncker: Greece is not broke.

SPIEGEL: Hope springs eternal.

Full interview here.

Consumer Spending Cools More Than Estimated, Wages Gain Less, Profits and Manufacturing Decelerate

Not good for this part of the cycle, as we remain grossly overtaxed for the size govt we have

Consumer Spending Cools More Than Estimated

By Shobhana Chandra

May 26 (Bloomberg) — Consumer spending cooled in the first quarter more than previously estimated as the jump in food and fuel costs held back the biggest part of the U.S. economy.

Household purchases rose at a 2.2 percent annual pace from January through March, less than the 2.7 percent calculated last month and short of the 2.8 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, according to Commerce Department figures issued today in Washington. The economy grew at a 1.8 percent pace last quarter, the same as previously calculated.

The number of workers filing applications for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 10,000 to 424,000 in the week ended May 21, according to data from the Labor Department. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected claims would decrease to 404,000.

A monthlong slide in consumer confidence ended last week as gasoline prices retreated, another report showed. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 48.4 in the period to May 22 from a nine-month low of minus 49.4 the prior week. Readings of minus 40 or less are generally associated with recessions and their aftermaths, the report said.

The economy last quarter maintained the previously reported pace of growth as bigger gains in inventories and a smaller decline in commercial construction compensated for the slowdown in spending.

The gain in consumer purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, followed a 4 percent increase in the fourth quarter was the biggest since the end of 2006. Cuts in spending on gasoline and utilities, combined with a smaller increase in demand for autos, contributed to the slowdown in the first three months of the year.

The price gauge tied to spending increased at a 3.8 percent pace in the first quarter, the biggest advance since the third quarter of 2008. Excluding food and fuel, the numbers tracked by Federal Reserve policy makers, prices climbed at a 1.4 percent rate.

Smaller Wage Gain

The GDP report also showed wages and salaries climbed by $27.9 billion from October through December, down from a prior estimate of $52.5 billion. Real disposable income, or after-tax earnings adjusted for inflation, climbed 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, rather than the 1.9 percent gain previously estimated. They rose 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year, less than the 2.9 percent prior calculation.

The smaller gain in pay dwarfed the slowdown in spending, pushing the savings rate down to 5.1 percent in the first quarter from a prior estimate of 5.7 percent.

Today’s report also offered a first look at profits. Earnings before taxes were up 1.3 percent from the prior quarter, the smallest gain in more than two years, after rising 2.3 percent in the prior period. They climbed 8.5 percent from the same time last year.

Manufacturing, which accounts for 12 percent of the economy, is slowing this quarter as disruptions in the supply of components temporarily weigh on production until Japanese factories recover from the fallout of the March disaster.

Growth Forecasts

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York each cut second-quarter growth forecasts by half a percentage point this week, citing setbacks in vehicle output caused by supply disruptions. Goldman trimmed its projection to 3 percent, while JPMorgan lowered it to 2.5 percent.

former President Clinton on the debt ceiling issue

Just in case you thought former President Clinton ever understood the monetary system:

Bill Clinton: Brief Debt Default ‘Might Not Be Calamitous’

“We regret if there has been a misinterpretation of a comment President Clinton made about raising the debt limit. President Clinton did not in any way mean to suggest that a default would not be highly damaging for the economy even for a very short period of time. He inadvertently misspoke. What he meant to say was that if a vote to extend the debt limit failed in advance of a default, that might not be harmful for a couple of days, but that if people thought that we might actually default, that in his words ‘we were literally not going to pay our bills anymore, then they would stop buying our debt.'”

ECB’s Smaghi quoted

*ECB’S BINI SMAGHI SAYS THERE’S NO `ALTERNATIVE’ TO REFORMS

Yes there is

*BINI SMAGHI: CENTRAL BANKS CAN’T SHORE UP CAPITAL IN BNK SYSTEM

Yes they can

*BINI SMAGHI SAYS CENTRAL BANKS CAN’T PROVIDE SOLVENCY SUPPORT

Yes they can

*BINI SMAGHI SAYS MON POLICY CAN’T TAKE UP FISCAL `SLACK’

Correct!!!

*BINI SMAGHI: PRICE STABILITY `CRUCIAL’ FOR FIN MKT STABILITY

No it’s not

*BINI SMAGHI SAYS ECB TO SUPPORT NATIONS IF THEY STICK TO PLANS

Contradicts above statements?

*BINI SMAGHI SAYS NATIONS MUST STICK TO ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS

Or else!

And now: *ECB’S GONZALEZ-PARAMO SAYS BANKING SECTOR FACING CHALLENGES
This story counters the negative talk a little- ECB may have more leeway.

Meanwhile the Greek market is better today, helped in part by news of asset sales ( 10% of Hellenic Telecom for €325mm).

An exchange of financial assets

Trucking tonnage Index declined and Department of Transportation Miles driven decreased in March

China

RBS: China: Where is the slowdown?

Very good, tends to support some of my ongoing themes:

China will produce more of its own resources.

Higher rates don’t bring down demand, and probably increase it.
It’s the fiscal tightening, directly or indirectly, proactive or via auto stabilizers, that ultimately cause the tree to fall. (US budget went into small surplus in 1979, for example)

The inflation problem is severe enough for them to be using export unfriendly currency appreciation to fight it.

Hopefully it doesn’t all come apart in Q2!