Maybe Greenspan has finally read Soft Currency Economics?

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Fri, Oct 8, 2010 at 9:28 AM, Eileen wrote:
>   
>   Greenspan comments from last night. Of course, he hasn’t said that loans create deposits,
>   but he’s finally acknowledging excess reserves. Reported by BBG TV:
>   
>   “If you add to excess reserves and they just sit there, you’ve merely gone through an
>   interesting bookkeeping calculation. It has no, I mean zero, economic effect. You need
>   commercial bank A to lend to steel company B.”
>   

very good!

Payrolls


Karim writes:

Headline near consensus and also very consistent with trend of recent months; but details on soft side

  • Headline payrolls -95k; private payrolls +64k; payrolls ex-census workers -20k
  • The 83k drop in state and local govt payrolls likely skewed by seasonals related to education (-50k jobs)
  • Avg weekly earnings unch and hours worked unch; so personal income will be soft in Sep (though it was strong in prior mths)
  • Unemployment rate 9.579% from 9.642%
  • Notable swings by sector: construction -52k; manufacturing -22k; leisure/hospitality +18k; Retail +8k
  • Median duration of unemployed up from 19.9 to 20.4; U6 measure up from 16.7% to 17.1%
  • Diffusion index drops from 54.1 to 49.8 (first month below 50 since January).

Data consistent with moderate growth which is not enough to materially lower unemployment rate and as such, further lowers the bar for more aggressive LSAPs in November.

Census jobs still being lost. State and local cuts will also probably continue.

Also, 65,000 private sector jobs is about 100,000 short of what I’d guess will be the norm with initial and continuing claims now drifting lower.

GDP growing faster than jobs indicates productivity still doing well, which is positive for profits.

Lower interest rates also continuing to support valuations.

Bullard on CNBC shows FOMC still not up to speed on monetary operations.

China sells off Japanese debt

Interesting and unusual headline.

China doesn’t care about exports to Japan and may be ‘helping them’ by selling some of its yen reserves?

They may know Japan is going to get serious about keeping the yen weaker with direct intervention so China is front running them?

China sells off Japanese debt

By Michiyo Nakamoto

October 8 (FT) — China sold a record Y2,000bn ($24.3bn) in short-term Japanese bills in August, suggesting that their hefty buying earlier this year was not aimed at diversification into the yen as some had speculated. Chinese investors had bought a net Y2,300bn in Japanese bills and bonds between January and July. Chinese investors were slight net buyers of medium- to long-term Japanese bonds in August, to the tune of Y10.3bn. Coupled with their record net selling of short-term bills, Chinese investors’ total net buying of Japanese bills and bonds so far in 2010 fell to Y297.6bn. That is still slightly above the annual record for Chinese net buying of Japanese debt, of Y255.7bn, recorded in 2005.

US Consumer Credit Falls by $3.34 Billion in August

With a federal budget deficit of roughly $100 billion/month adding that much in savings (and income) to the economy total spending can be done with less additions to debt than when the deficit was a lot smaller.

Because of the deficit spending, consumers have been able to support maybe 2-3% growth in consumption and at the same time pay down credit cards and other debt, and debt continues to fall as a % of income as well.

Note below that new debt for non revolving credit has been inching up for the last 4 months, a sign that modest improvement continues.

With weekly initial claims now below 450,000 it looks like the spike to 500,000 most likely was some kind of statistical blip.
And at current levels, which seem to be drifting lower, we could be looking at 150,000- 200,000 new jobs per month.
This would mean the unemployment rate would fall only very slowly, but it’s still an upside surprise, and with 7 year treasury yields closing in on 7 year JGB’s we could also see US equity PE’s now around 12 adjust upward towards Japan’s PE’s of about 23.

I have no idea what’s going to happen with QE, except it will have very little or more likely no effect on the economy.
But there will be a lot of trading around the prospects and outcome of the Fed’s decision.

The term structure of risk free rates is always and in the Fed’s hands, and subject to the Fed’s reaction function and not to market forces. And with the talk of the Fed targeting longer term rates they may be coming around to it, as best I can tell knowledge of actual monetary operations seems to be slowly gravitating from the monetary operations staff to the actual leadership.

US Consumer Credit Falls by $3.34 Billion in August

October 25 (Reuters) — Total U.S. consumer credit outstanding declined for the seventh straight month in August as credit card debt continued to fall.

The Federal Reserve said on Thursday total outstanding credit, which covers everything from car loans to credit cards, fell by $3.34 billion after dropping $4.09 billion in July.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast consumer credit contracting $3 billion in August.

So-called revolving, or credit-card credit, fell $4.99 billion in August after a $4.98 billion fall the prior month.

That marked the 24th consecutive month credit-card debt decreased.

Non-revolving credit, which includes closed-end loans for big-ticket items like cars, boats, college education and vacations, increased $1.65 billion after increasing $888.59 million in July. It was the fourth straight month of gains.

Trichet ‘Trapped’ by Banks’ Addiction to ECB Cash: Euro Credit

Yes, as previously discussed, the ECB is now dictating terms and conditions to both the banking system and the national govts with regard to fiscal policy.

The fundamental structure of the eurozone includes no credible bank deposit insurance that now keeps the bank dependent on direct ECB funding. It also includes national govts that are in the position of being credit sensitive entities, much like the US states, only now with debt ratios far too high for their market status who are now directly or indirectly dependent on ECB support via bond purchases in the open market.

And there is no way out of this control for the banks or the national govts. There will be large deficits one way or another- through proactive fiscal expansion or through automatic stabilizers as attempts to reduce deficits only work to a point before they again weaken the economy to the point where the automatic stabilizers raise the deficits as the market forces ‘work’ to obtain needed accumulations of net euro financial assets.

This inescapable dependency has resulted in a not yet fully recognized shift of fiscal authority to the ECB, as they dictate terms and conditions that go with their support.

Yes, the ECB may complain about their new status, claim they are working to end it, etc. but somehow I suspect that deep down they relish it and announcements to the contrary are meant as disguise.

In the mean time, deficits did get large enough the ‘ugly way ‘in the last recession to now be supportive of modest growth. And even the 3% deficit target might be enough for muddling through with some support from private sector credit expansion which could be helpful for several years if conditions are right.

Also, dreams of net export expansion are likely to be largely frustrated as the conditions friendly to exports also drive the euro higher to the point where the desired increases don’t materialize. And the euro buying by the world’s export powers, though welcomed as helping finance the national govts., further supports the euro and dampens net exports.

Trichet `Trapped’ by Banks’ Addiction to ECB Cash: Euro Credit

By Gabi Thesing and Matthew Brown

October 7 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet staked his reputation on propping up banks with cheap cash during the financial crisis. Now credit markets won’t let him take away that support.

Near-record borrowing costs for nations across the euro region’s periphery are making it harder for the ECB to wean commercial banks off the lifeline it introduced two years ago.

The extra yield that investors demand to hold Irish and Portuguese debt over Germany’s rose last week to 454 basis points and 441 basis points respectively. Spain’s spread hit a two-month high.

The risk for the ECB is that it gets pulled deeper into helping the banking systems of the most indebted nations in the 16-member euro bloc. Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said Sept. 6 that addiction to ECB liquidity is “a problem” that “needs to be tackled.” Complicating the ECB’s task is that interbank lending rates have risen, tightening credit conditions and making access to market funding more expensive for banks.

“The ECB is trapped and the exit door is blocked,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “The state of credit markets is going to force them to stay in crisis mode for longer than some of them would like.”

The ECB’s 22-member Governing Council convenes today in Frankfurt. Policy makers will set the benchmark lending rate at a record low of 1 percent for an 18th month, according to all 52 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. That announcement is due at 1:45 p.m. and Trichet holds a press conference 45 minutes later.

Austerity Will Push Euro to $1.50 by Year End: Economist

This story was abstracted from a long phone interview a couple of days ago and is reasonably well reported.
It was a follow up to my last interview with them when the euro was 119.
At the time all forecasts there were seeing were for it to keep going down.

Unreported was the part of the discussion reviewing that the traditional export model keeps fiscal tight enough to keep domestic demand relatively low, and at the same time buys fx to prevent currency appreciation and keep real costs down to help the exporters. And that the ECB has an ideological constraint against buying US dollars, in that building dollar reserves would give the appearance of the dollar backing the euro, when they want the euro to be a reserve currency.
(And interesting that they kept my name out of the title.)

Austerity Will Push Euro to $1.50 by Year End: Economist

By Antonia Oprita

October 7 (CNBC) — The euro will keep rising and will likely end the year at up to $1.50, as the European Central Bank pursues a highly deflationary policy, despite buying euro-denominated bonds, economist Warren Mosler, founder and principal of broker/dealer AVM, told CNBC.com.

Mosler, who predicted that the euro would bounce back towards $1.60 in June, when the single European currency was trading at around $1.19, said there was nothing to stop the euro’s [EUR=X 1.3965 0.0036 (+0.26%) ]appreciation versus the dollar, short of a policy response from the European Central Bank.

“If it (the euro) keeps going at the rate it’s going, it could go to $1.45-$1.50 by the end of the year,” he said.

The ECB started buying government bonds belonging to distressed euro zone members such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to ease market concern regarding these countries’ ability to fund themselves and some analysts have said the measure may be inflationary.

But the policy is, if anything, deflationary because it is accompanied by tough austerity conditions, Mosler said.

“They’re causing a shortage of euros by requiring governments to rein in spending. It’s a highly deflationary move and that’s what is driving the euro higher,” he said.

“Right now the ECB and the euro zone are tightening up their supply of euros.”

Billionaire investor George Soros accused Germany earlier this week ofdragging the euro zone in a deflationary spiral by promoting austerity measures.

Many analysts have said that the ECB is promoting policies that go hand in hand with the euro zone’s biggest member’s fears of inflation.

One element of uncertainty is the ECB’s willingness to continue to buy government bonds, Mosler warned.

“No-one knows how long the ECB are going to do it… they could change their mind tomorrow,” he said.

But market speculators, while being able to attack the euro zone’s weakest members, will not be able to speculate against the central bank, which can print money and distribute it among its members at any time, Mosler said.

“The markets cannot punish the ECB. They can’t punish the issuer of the currency,” he said. “When you’re the issuer of a modern currency, you can credit an account and there’s nothing the market can do about it.”

He reiterated his view that the ECB has now de facto shifted to deciding fiscal policy for the countries in the single currency area, since their help by buying bonds comes with conditions regarding cutting debt and budget deficits.

Another factor behind the euro’s appreciation will be China’s announcement that it will buy Greek debt, which was hailed in Europe as proof of confidence in Greece’s ability to pay its debt.

“China would like nothing more than to buy euros – they’re doing it through buying Greek debt. That’s just one more force for a stronger euro,” Mosler said.

Comments on the Blumenthal McMahon Debate

Comments on the Blumenthal McMahon Debate

The debate organizers opted not to include me as the representative of the third largest political party in Connecticut, the Independent Party. I did, however, watch the proceedings on television. We are in an economic emergency, and I’m running for the US Senate strictly as a matter of conscience to offer my knowledge, experience, and proposals to fix our broken economy and create the 20 million new jobs we desperately need. To that end I offer my comments.

But let me first respond to the question on the death penalty. Both candidates proclaimed their unconditional support for it, while I am categorically against it. That fact that more than 100 convicted murderers on death row have been found not guilty and released after DNA testing became available is reason enough for me to ban this unnecessary measure which has likely put to death untold numbers of innocent people.

With regard to jobs and the economy, both candidates recognized that small businesses account for about 70% of private sector jobs, and both candidates proposed a variety of tax measures to help small business. And while both candidates favored not letting middle income tax cuts expire next year, and Mrs. McMahon further supported not raising taxes on anyone, neither of those proposals actually lower taxes from their current levels.

Sadly, the problem is that neither candidate recognizes that it is SALES that create jobs. Consequently, they did not focus on proposals designed to increase sales. Restaurants, department stores, and other small businesses don’t cut staff when sales are good and they are full of paying customers. They cut staff when sales fall. We’ve lost 8 million jobs because sales fell and business in general remains slow. So while Mrs. McMahon stated that entrepreneurial activity is what creates jobs through risk taking, she failed to recognize that they do that only when prospects for actually selling their goods and services are favorable, and, particularly, when they have a backlog of orders.

Thus, while lowering taxes for small business certainly doesn’t hurt, it’s not what creates jobs. My lead proposal to create millions of new jobs is a full payroll tax (FICA) suspension for both employers AND for all employees. This will increase take home pay by about 8% which means a person earning $50,000 a year will see his take home pay go up by over $300 per month, which will boost sales and create jobs the right way, from the bottom up, and not from the failed top down trickle down bailout policies of the last several years. It also lowers costs for all businesses, which helps keep prices down. We have to take strong measures to get sales back up to where they should be.

Next, I want to address one of the more famous sound bytes from this debate. Mrs. McMahon specifically stated that “government doesn’t create jobs, the private sector does” and Mr. Blumenthal did not disagree. What both candidates failed to recognize is the government’s central role in private sector job creation. Government’s role is the creation and maintenance of public infrastructure necessary for the functioning of the private sector. This includes in the general sense the legal system, the monetary system, public safety, and other related and essential support functions. This infrastructure employs real people in real jobs providing real benefits without which there would be no viable private sector. So in that sense government does indeed create real jobs, both directly and indirectly.

In summary, neither candidate showed that they understood that sales create private sector jobs, and neither candidate directly proposed measures such as my payroll tax suspension for employees to increase our spending power to restore sales and create jobs. Instead, they proposed measures that certainly won’t hurt, but will fall far short of what’s needed to put America back to work.

Next, Mr. Blumenthal repeatedly called for policy to force China to end its ‘currency manipulation,’ along with ‘buy America’ proposals and proposals to reverse the flow of American jobs overseas, to the point of criticizing Mrs. McMahon for purchasing imported goods. Mrs. McMahon implicitly agreed with the premise, countering by explaining that US corporate tax policy was to blame for companies moving overseas. Again, unfortunately, both candidates have things fundamentally backwards on this issue as well. I suspect that is because the unions they are undoubtedly catering to also have it backwards and are sadly working against their own best interesets.

The real problem is not the imports, or the jobs going overseas. The problem is that we are grossly over taxed for the size of government we have, and don’t have enough take home pay to buy enough goods and services to keep everyone at home fully employed.

As every Professor of Economics knows, and every first year student is taught, imports are real benefits and exports are real costs. You can think of each nation’s real wealth this way: take the ‘pile’ of goods and services we produce at home, then add to that pile the goods and services the rest of the world sends us, then subtract from that the pile of goods and services we send overseas. What we are left with is our real wealth. As you can see, the problem is not what we buy from overseas. That adds to our pile and makes us richer. The problem is the unemployment here at home, which is best addressed by my payroll tax suspension which gives people working for a living enough spending money to increase sales enough to create the jobs we need here at home. The trick is to get taxes low enough so that we have enough spending money to buy everything we can produce here at home with everyone working, plus everything the rest of the world wants to sell us.

In the debate, both candidates also stressed the importance of deficit reduction, with both concerned about the debt we are leaving our children. The problem is that they have both bought into the deficit mythology that has gotten the U.S. economy to where it is today. In order to restore American prosperity create American jobs it is critical to dispell this mythology, and I am on mission to stomp it out forever.

The fact is that the U.S. government is not ‘out of money’ or ‘about to go broke.’ That talk is pure fear mongering. Unlike state and local governments (which can go broke), the Federal government is the actual issuer and operator of the US dollar. It utilizes its Federal Reserve Bank and the commercial banks (where all of our bank accounts are) to make payments and receive payments. It makes all payments, such as Social Security payments, simply by marking numbers up in our bank accounts. Those numbers don’t come from anywhere, as Fed Chairman Bernanke testified last year and other Fed officials have repeated. There is no gold coin that drops into a bucket at the fed when you pay your taxes and they don’t hammer one into their computers when they pay a Social Security check.

To repeat: There is no such thing as the Federal government running out of money. Government checks don’t ever bounce.

That is not to say that ‘over spending’ can’t drive up prices and eventually result in inflation. It does mean, however, that Social Security is not broken. It can’t be. The checks will never bounce. And I have signed a pledge never to cut Social Security benefits or eligibility. However, unfortunately for all of us, there is a commission on “fiscal responsibility and reform” supported by the Democrats and the Republicans, which, conveniently after the election, will recommend ways to cut Social Security and Medicare. An important part of my mission is to make sure they do not succeed.

Often, when I explain this, people will ask if I am proposing that we just ‘print the money,’ as if today there is a distinction between printing money and some other way of government spending. I tell them that ‘printing money’ is a long outdated gold standard distinction that meant we had printed more paper money than we had gold backing it. Today, you can’t ‘cash in’ your dollars at the Fed for gold. Dollars are just numbers in bank accounts, or actual cash. So all I’m doing is describing the one and only way spending and taxing always takes place with today’s monetary system.

The other question that seems to be on everyone’s mind is how then do we pay off China? The answer is actually quite simple when you understand how it works in its most basic form.

First, one has to understand China doesn’t start out with any dollars. They get them from selling things to us. When China gets paid, those dollars go into its checking account, which is also called a reserve account, at the Fed (Federal Reserve Bank). US Treasury securities including T bills, notes, and bonds are nothing more than savings accounts at the Fed. So when China buys Treasury securities all that happens is their dollars shift from their checking account at the Fed to their savings account at the Fed. That’s called ‘the US going into debt.’ You can call it whatever you want, but it is really just transferring dollars from China’s checking to its savings. The total US debt of about $13 trillion is simply the dollars in savings accounts at the Fed. And how is that repaid by the tens of billions every week as the various Treasury securities mature? All the Fed does is shift those dollars (plus interest) from the savings accounts back to the checking accounts. That’s it, debt paid. And no checks from anyone’s children and grandchildren are involved. But what if China decides not to ‘buy our debt’? This simply means their money stays in their checking account at the Fed and never goes to their savings account. There is no reason for anyone to care in which Fed account China’s dollars are kept. Further, if China doesn’t want dollars at all, their only option is to buy something with them just like anyone else.

All of this causes one to view deficit spending in a very different light. Deficit spending for the Federal government is very different than most people imagine. When the Federal government spends more than it taxes, that extra money spent simply winds up in savings accounts at the Fed. In other words, it adds to the savings of the economy. With this in mind and knowing that, by definition, deficit reduction means either increasing taxes or cutting spending, we can see that both of those actions take money out of our economy – the worst possible thing to do at a time like this. While I strongly favor cutting wasteful and unnecessary Federal spending, I also recognize that with today’s high unemployment any spending cuts must be matched by tax cuts of at least that much to ensure money is not removed from the economy. What actually matters is the real economy, and not the deficit which is nothing more than the savings accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank. Don’t you think that if the debt was really a problem something very bad would have happened long before it got to $13 trillion?

Mrs. McMahon’s nonsensical statement about using unspent stimulus money to pay down the national debt would be like saying you are going to use your remaining line on your credit card to pay off your debt. And Mr. Blumenthal’s failure to respond to such an obvious absurdity likewise shows he too is sorely lacking in his understanding of economics and job creation at this time of economic emergency.

The health insurance issue again highlighted their lack of understanding of markets and economics for all parties concerned. Both candidates missed the point that there is not yet an operational plan to guarantee coverage for those with pre existing conditions. The problem is that if you can’t be turned down for insurance because you are already sick, you don’t need to buy insurance until AFTER you need medical attention. To address that situation, they’ve discussed fining people who don’t buy insurance. But if the fines aren’t at least as high as the insurance premiums, people will just pay the fines. And then insurance companies will only be selling insurance to people already in need of treatment, which means the premiums will be higher than the costs of the needed treatment to cover the insurance company’s costs. Unfortunately, however nobly intended, the entire concept is unworkable under the current structure, and neither candidate indicated any awareness of this.

With regard to TARP funding for banks, again, neither candidate got it right. The fact is TARP was nothing more than regulatory forbearance that allowed the banks to continue to function with reduced levels of private capital, along with terms and conditions regarding operations, compensation, etc. No additional public funds were actually involved. The FDIC was, for all practical purposes, already guaranteeing the depositors from loss should all the private capital of any one bank be lost. Adding TARP money to secure depositors from loss when they were already FDIC guaranteed made no sense at all and added nothing. Nor did ‘paying back the TARP money,’ which necessarily did nothing more than let funds sit in reserve accounts at the Fed, make any difference.

To summarize the economic issues, neither candidate showed that they understood that sales create private sector jobs, and neither candidate directly proposed measures such as my payroll tax suspension for employees to increase our spending power to restore sales and create jobs. Instead, they proposed measures that certainly won’t hurt, but will fall far short of what’s needed to put America back to work. During this time of financial crisis, even with the best of intentions, neither candidate is qualified to represent our best interests and fix our economy.

Mr. Blumenthal has been a tireless public servant and advocate for the people of Connecticut for a very long time, and I have no doubt he’ll continue to do that if elected Senator. Unfortunately, much of his understanding of current issues is completely backwards. For example, his tireless and well-intentioned efforts in regard to foreign trade are far more likely to destroy jobs than create them. And nothing could be more subversive than Mrs. McMahon’s promised vote for a balanced budget amendment, which would take over $1 trillion out of our economy, destroying tens of millions of jobs, and threatening our liberties as well in the ensuing social unrest that.

We are in an economic emergency, and both candidates have put forth proposals that would unknowingly destroy millions of jobs in a terrible depression. I am running for the US Senate solely as a matter of conscience as the candidate uniquely qualified to support the proposals that will create the 20 million jobs we need, and defeat the forces at work that are attempting to slash Social Security and Medicare.

Also, unlike the other candidates, creating jobs has been my life work, and not just election talk. My published writings and proposals have already created millions of jobs around the world, and I have met regularly with Congressmen and Senators from both parties promoting full employment and prosperity, as well as fighting back against the proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

I urge you to please visit www.moslerforsenate.com and read my proposals, my qualifications, and my endorsements.

Non-Mfg ISM

With a federal budget deficit still as large as it is, not all that much of a surprise.


Karim writes:

Nice upside surprise:

  • Orders and employment both up on the month; export orders up sharply (but not seasonally adjusted)



Sept Aug
Composite 53.2 51.5
Activity 52.8 54.4
Prices Paid 60.1 60.3
New Orders 54.9 52.4
Employment 50.2 48.2
Export orders 58.0 46.5
Imports 53.0 50.5
  • “General state of the business has not changed in the last three months. The market is still soft for new sales due to financing requirements.” (Construction)
  • “Business seems to be flat from last month.” (Finance & Insurance)
  • “Signs that the economy may be improving, but our sector is still flat or declining.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Business activity is generally stable — slightly better than last year.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “Third quarter is looking profitable with improving confidence and expectations in the economy. Capital expenditures are being approved.” (Wholesale Trade)

Chairman Bernanke address to students

Bernanke says more Fed asset purchases could help

October 4 (Reuters) — The Federal Reserve’s asset purchases lowered borrowing costs and supported the economy, and more buying could further ease financial conditions, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday.

He leaves out the negative influence of the interest rate and fiscal channel that he wrote about in his own 2004 paper. The economy is a net receiver of interest from the govt and lower rates reduces interest payments from the govt to securities holders. And in this cycle savers lost more interest income than borrowers gained, with the difference going to wider net interest margins for banks, who have no propensity to consume from that interest income.

“I don’t have a number to give you, but I do think that the additional purchases, although we don’t have precise numbers, have the ability to ease financial conditions,” Bernanke said.

Bernanke said he was convinced that the Fed’s massive purchases from March of 2009 until early 2010 had lowered effective interest rates at a time the central bank’s benchmark lending rates were anchored near zero, where they remain.

The buying program “increased the willingness of investors to take a reasonable amount of risk and create some support for the economy,” he said.

Again, he leaves out the fact that all the $50 billion + of annual interest earned by the Fed on its new portfolio of over $2 trillion in securities would otherwise have gone to the economy, but instead is turned over to the us treasury, thereby functioning as a tax.

In September, the Federal Open Market Committee said it was ready to take further steps to help the U.S. recovery if the economy stays sluggish. Reviving the program to buy assets such as U.S. Treasuries seem like a potential step.

In a wide-ranging, hour-long forum with university students in Providence, Rhode Island, Bernanke defended the U.S. government’s often criticized program to support banks during the global financial crisis.

The Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, has turned out to be a ‘pretty good investment” for taxpayers money loaned to banks during the financial crisis is returned with interest.

Many people don’t understand that TARP was designed to help the economy, not the banks, and that the country’s economic downturn would have been much worse without it, Bernanke said.

Nor does he seem to understand it was nothing never anything more than regulatory forbearance, and not a fiscal expenditure. The FDIC, for all practical purposes, already guaranteed all bank deposits should bank losses exceed the amount of the bank’s private capital. So adding more public capital through tarp rather than simply granting regulatory forbearance (along with imposing any terms and conditions the govt might desire) was non nonsensical, politically destructive and divisive, and demonstrative of a complete lack of understanding of the banking system by the entire govt., media, and financial sector in general.