reuters post


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Mosler’s 11 steps to fix the economy

1. A full ‘payroll tax holiday’ where the US Treasury makes all FICA payments for us (15.3%). This will restore ’spending power’ and, by allowing households to make their mortgage payments, will fix banks from the bottom up. It may also keep prices down as competitive pressures may lead businesses to cut prices, passing on their tax savings to consumers even as sales increase.

2. A $500 per capita federal distribution to all the states to sustain employment in essential services, service debt, and reduce the need for state tax hikes. This can be repeated at perhaps 6 month intervals until GDP surpasses previous high levels at which point state revenues that depend on GDP would be restored.

3. A federally-funded $8/hr job and healthcare benefits for anyone willing and able to work. The economy will improve rapidly with my first two proposals and the private sector far more readily hires folks that are already employed. In 2001 Argentina implemented this proposal, putting to work 2 million people who had never held a ‘real’ job. Within 2 years, 750,000 of those 2 million were employed by the private sector.

4. Making banks utilities. The following are disruptive, serve no public purpose and should be done away with:

–Secondary market transactions
–Proprietary trading
–Lending against financial assets
–Business activities beyond approved lending and bank account services.
–Contracting in LIBOR. Fed funds should be used.
–Subsidiaries of any kind.
–Offshore lending.
–Contracting in credit default insurance.

5. Federal Reserve — The liability side of banking is the wrong place to impose market discipline.

The Fed should lend in the fed funds market to all member banks to ensure permanent liquidity. Demanding collateral from banks is disruptive and redundant, as the FDIC already regulates and supervises all bank assets.

6. The Treasury should issue nothing longer than 3 month bills. Longer term securities serve to keep long term rates higher than otherwise.

7. FDIC

–Remove the $250,000 cap on deposit insurance. Liquidity is no longer an issue when fed funds are available from the Fed.
–Don’t tax good banks for losses by bad banks. This serves only to raise interest rates.

8. The Treasury should directly fund the housing agencies to eliminate hedging needs while directly targeting mortgage rates at desired levels.

9. Homeowners being foreclosed should have the option to stay in their homes at fair market rents with ownership going to the government at the lower of the mortgage balance or fair market value of the home.

10. Remove ’self imposed constraints’ that are disruptive to operations and serve no public purpose.

–Dump the debt ceiling – Congress already votes on spending and taxes.
–Allow Treasury ‘overdrafts’ at the Fed rather than forcing it to sell notes and bonds. This is left over from the gold standard days and is currently inapplicable.

11. Federal taxes function to regulate aggregate demand, not to raise revenue per se, and therefore should be increased only to cool down an overheating economy, and not to ‘pay for’ anything.


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Payrolls and the Fed


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Fed struggling to meet its dual mandate of full employment and price stability.

Still losing on both fronts.

Congress and the Admin can’t be feeling good about any of this.

Their belief in ‘monetary policy’ has to be fading after a prolonged period of the 0 rate policy and trillions of quantitative easing.

Quick take.
The payroll number, down 85,000, was moderately disappointing. There was no meaningful net revision. Given the likely data distortions it should have surprised to the upside, as I suggested to you yesterday.
The big story is the household survey measure of employment. It crashed. According to this survey employment fell by 589,000 in the month of December.
Some revisions to this series cut last month’s positive number almost in half to +139,000.
The three-month average is now -325,000. The four month is a little worse. The five month average is also a little worse. But only a little worse. Smoothed household survey employment continues to decline at a rapid rate.

This series is a very noisy series. Nonetheless, one cannot ignore the fact that all smoothed measures of this series show sustained employment losses.
If I am right that seasonal adjustment and birth/death model distortions to the payroll statistic might have added as much as 200,000 to payrolls, the underlying payroll decline might be on the order of 250,000 – not very far out of line with the smoothed household survey.

The workweek was unchanged, preserving its big gain of last month. There are no other major surprises.
I have argued that recent strong reports on final demand have been distorted to the upside by several statistical problems and that the trend in final demand has been weaker than the data shows. I have argued that the withholding tax data suggests that consumer income has still been in decline.
This household survey employment data supports these two theses. In fact, it suggests the recession may never have ended. Things in the US could well start deteriorating faster than I had hitherto felt.


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Payrolls


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Karim writes:

Not hugely out of line with other recent data but details generally weak all around

  • -85k nfp; net revisions -1k (though November now reported at +4k)
  • Weakness led by construction (-27k to -53k; weather?) and govt (-4k to -21k)
  • Avg hourly earnings +0.2%
  • Hours worked unch
  • Unemp rate 9.979% to 9.975%
  • U6 unemp rate (discouraged workers, etc) 17.2% to 17.3%
  • Participation rate 64.9% to 64.6%
  • Median duration of unemp 20.2 weeks to 20.5 weeks
  • Diffusion index 42.4 to 40.0


Agreed.

Both of the Fed’s dual mandates continue moving against a rate hike.

The Fed’s forecasts call for ‘improvements’ but with high downside risks.

From Goldman:

The household survey was substantially weaker than the payroll survey. Although the unemployment rate held steady at 10.0% (9.975% before rounding), the overall levels of the labor force and employment were down significantly — 661k and 589k, respectively. Over the past year, the labor force has fallen 1%; at 64.6% the labor force participation rate is at its lowest level in almost 25 years (August 1985). While some of this may be demographic, at least some of the sharp drop in pariticipation is apt to reverse in coming months, raising the bar for the job growth needed to keep unemployment from rising.

4. Hours worked were flat in December, concluding a quarter in which this index fell 0.5% at an annual rate. This is a much better performance than in recent quarters, and is consistent with expectations that real GDP will post a significant increase for the fourth quarter. We estimate at 4% annualized increase in real GDP for Q4 with upside risk.

5. Although average hourly earnings rose a bit more than we expected on the month, the trend in wages — at 2.2% — continues to drift lower, consistent with the high level of unemployment. The “U6” broad measure of underemployment, which includes marginally attached workers (those who have stopped working and are consequently not counted as part of the labor force) and those working part time who would like full time work — rose 0.1 point to 17.3%.


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It would have been worse with McCain


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Yes, it all would have been a lot worse with McCain:

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Thu, Jan 7, 2010 at 5:06 PM, Tom wrote:
>   
>   And this is the guy that ran second? Wow, what a choice!
>   

My Friend,

I have seen my fair share of battles throughout my years of service to our country. In the Senate, I have waged war against wrong, whether it is today’s massive federal spending, government-run health care or violent extremism that threatens our great nation.

President Obama is leading an extreme, left wing crusade to bankrupt America — leaving the bill with our children and grandchildren. I stand in his way every day in an effort to serve as a voice for the millions of Americans who disagree with the direction he is taking our country. If I get a bruise or two knocking some sense into heads in Washington, so be it. I’ll keep fighting for jobs, economic growth and reduced spending as long as I’m in serving in the U.S. Senate.

My sincere thanks,

John McCain


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