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Karim writes:
Lots of numbers today- none of them real good.
MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 21)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
1.5% |
Prior |
-6.2% |
Revised |
-6.2% |
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MBA Purchasing Applications (Nov 21)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
261.60 |
Prior |
248.50 |
Revised |
n/a |
Up a bit from very low levels.
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MBA Refinancing Applications (Nov 21)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
1254.00 |
Prior |
1281.20 |
Revised |
n/a |
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Durable Goods Orders (Oct)
Survey |
-3.0% |
Actual |
-6.2% |
Prior |
0.8% |
Revised |
-0.2% |
Big fall.
Karim writes:
- -6.2% m/m
- -4% m/m ex-aircraft and defense (after -3.2% and -2.3% prior two months)
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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Oct)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-11.7% |
Prior |
-2.5% |
Revised |
n/a |
Big fall in a longer term down trend.
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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Oct)
Survey |
-1.6% |
Actual |
-4.4% |
Prior |
-1.1% |
Revised |
-2.3% |
Not good either.
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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Oct)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-4.6% |
Prior |
-1.8% |
Revised |
n/a |
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Durable Goods ALLX (Oct)
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Personal Income MoM (Oct)
Survey |
0.1% |
Actual |
0.3% |
Prior |
0.2% |
Revised |
0.1% |
Income has held up better than expected.
And the consumer has deleveraged substantially.
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Personal Income YoY (Oct)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
3.3% |
Prior |
3.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
Looking lower.
Will get a nice kick up with the coming fiscal adjustment.
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Personal Income ALLX (Oct)
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Personal Consumption MoM (Oct)
Survey |
-1.0% |
Actual |
-1.0% |
Prior |
-0.3% |
Revised |
n/a |
Consumption falling even as income continues to increase.
The consumer is recharging his batteries.
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Personal Consumption YoY (Oct)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
2.3% |
Prior |
3.5% |
Revised |
n/a |
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PCE Deflator YoY (Oct)
Survey |
3.3% |
Actual |
3.2% |
Prior |
4.2% |
Revised |
4.1% |
Down some and more weak numbers to come, but the longer term trend still looks up.
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PCE Core MoM (Oct)
Survey |
0.0% |
Actual |
0.0% |
Prior |
0.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
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PCE Core YoY (Oct)
Survey |
2.2% |
Actual |
2.1% |
Prior |
2.4% |
Revised |
2.3% |
Higher than expected but down some, and more weak numbers on the way, but still at the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone.
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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22)
Survey |
535K |
Actual |
529K |
Prior |
542K |
Revised |
543K |
Remains very high.
Karim writes:
- Initial claims only decline 14k to 529k after 80k rise in prior 4 weeks
- Similar bounce with continuing, drop of 54k to 3962k (had risen 295k in prior 3 weeks)
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Continuing Claims (Nov 15)
Survey |
4080K |
Actual |
3962K |
Prior |
4012K |
Revised |
4016K |
Off the highs but remain very high.
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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 22)
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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov F)
Survey |
57.5 |
Actual |
55.3 |
Prior |
57.9 |
Revised |
n/a |
Back through the lows.
Karim writes:
- New low for headline confidence, from 57.9 to 55.3
- 5yr fwd inflation expectations unchanged at 2.9
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New Home Sales (Oct)
Survey |
441K |
Actual |
433K |
Prior |
464K |
Revised |
457K |
Still sliding.
Karim writes:
- -5% m/m
- Mths supply rise from 10.9 to 11.1
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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Oct)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
381.00 |
Prior |
414.00 |
Revised |
n/a |
Maybe this is why sales are falling- no new homes left for sale!
Falling sharply.
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New Home Sales MoM (Oct)
Survey |
-5.0% |
Actual |
-5.3% |
Prior |
2.7% |
Revised |
0.7% |
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New Home Sales YoY (Oct)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-40.1% |
Prior |
-34.1% |
Revised |
n/a |
Might be leveling off at very low levels.
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New Home Sales Median Price (Oct)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
218.00 |
Prior |
221.70 |
Revised |
n/a |
Prices falling but not collapsing.
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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)
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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)
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