Tag Archives: Opec

Energy issues have not gone away yet

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It’s too early to say for sure the Mike Master’s sell off has run its course.

I looked at the announced OPEC supply cut as evidence they think it has.

Net supply issues remain and at least so far demand destruction has only meant a slowing growth of consumption.

Crude Oil Rises on Surge in Global Equities, Possible Fed Cut

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Supply Declines

Global crude-oil output is falling faster than expected, leaving producers struggling to meet demand without extra investment, the Financial Times said, citing a draft of an International Energy Agency report.

Annual production is set to drop by 9.1 percent in the absence of additional investment, according to the draft of the agency’s World Energy Outlook obtained by the newspaper, the FT reported. Even with investment, output will slide by 6.4 percent a year, it said.

The shortfall will become more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed, the newspaper said. The IEA forecasts that the rising consumption of China, India and other developing nations requires investments of $360 billion a year until 2030, it said.

OPEC Considers Meeting

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ decision last week to trim production for the first time in almost two years failed to stop prices falling yesterday.

“If circumstances dictate we have another meeting, of course we will meet,” OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri said at the Oil & Money conference in London. He said he expects a market response to last week’s output cut after about a week.

Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corp., echoed el-Badri’s comments, saying he’s watching the market to see whether it’s deteriorating or stabilizing.


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OPEC cuts production by 1.5 million barrels a day

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I take this as a signal that the Saudis (and probably Russians as they just met with the Saudis) have decided to hold or raise prices and let quantity sold adjust.

Fuel prices are low enough to restore growth in demand with any positive economic performance.

Oct. 24, 2008

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to make a deep cut in oil production, taking 1.5 million barrels a day off global markets as it embarks on the task of managing prices amid a potential global recession.

December light, sweet crude oil futures fell $3.34 to $64.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in London.


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Re: Russia/OPEC

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(email exchange)

Thanks! it’s all about price setting, as previously suspected.

Warren

>   
>   On Thu, Oct 23, 2008 at 10:09 AM, Scott wrote:
>   
>   Moving on, we note that Russia and OPEC held high level talks
>   yesterday in Moscow as President Dmitry Medvedev met with OPEC’s
>   Secretary-General, Abdallah Salem al-Badri. This is, to the best of our
>   knowledge, the first such “summit” meeting between Russia and OPEC.
>   The talks, apparently, were to discuss the volatile oil market, and it
>   appears that Moscow is pushing for wider and more open co-operation
>   with other world energy producers. Neither the Kremlin nor OPEC
>   released details of the meeting, but before the talks between he and
>   Mr. Medvedev began, Mr. al-Badri dispensed with the idea that he’d
>   come to Moscow to ask for an output reduction. Obviously we do not
>   believe that statement, nor should anyone else. It is in OPEC’s best
>   interest to get Russia, Norway, and any other large… or soon to be
>   large, such as Brazil… to curtail production. Further, the ‘summit’
>   followed an agreement between Russia, Qatar and Iran to consult with
>   one another on the natural gas market, to possibly pursue joint
>   projects and perhaps to create their own nat-gas cartel. Mischief is
>   afoot. We can just sense it.
>   


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OPEC to cut output

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Saudis still price setters, this is just a smoke screen to disguise that. The great Mike Master’s sell off that also triggered the last leg of the financial crisis must have run it’s course in the crude markets. Price hikes may return, this time with no excess inventory and very weak world economies. If their motives are the destruction of the Great Satans and Putin is with them it’s going to get very, very ugly.

OPEC’s oil supply must be ‘significant’- Khelil

(Reuters)- OPEC oil producers will cut oil supplies when they meet next week in Vienna and “the reduction must be significant,” the group’s president, Chakib Khelil, was quoted as saying on Saturday.

“There will be a reduction of the output and the reduction must be significant to restore the balance between supply and demand,” Algerian state news agency APS quoted Khelil as telling reporters.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold an emergency meeting on Oct. 24 in Vienna to discuss the impact of economic weakness on oil markets.

“If the cut is 1.5 million barrels per day, then it will be 1.5 million barrels. If it is 2.0 million barrels per day, it will be 2.0 million barrels per day,” added Khelil, who is also Algeria’s energy and mining minister.

Saudis will just start raising their posted prices and let their quantity adjust. The fall in demand for their output won’t be all that much as prices rise, suggesting to an unsuspecting world OPEC didn’t cut as much as they proclaimed.

Earlier, Khelil was quoted in Saturday’s edition of Algerian daily El Watan as saying that OPEC saw oil prices bottoming at $70-$90 per barrel.

“Normally, OPEC has no price target. The market decides on prices. But people say that the bottom price, the bottom cost below which we can not step down, is between $70 and $90 per barrel,” El Watan quoted Khelil as telling reporters.

What they are really saying is the Saudis decide the price, and the markets then determine how much they want to buy at that price.

He cited cases of Canada and Brazil, where oil could not pumped if prices were to fall below $70 per barrel.

On Friday, Khelil told Algerian state radio a “decision will be taken to lower oil supply by some OPEC members so that the oil price will not be damaged.

“This decision will not be implemented immediately because there are contracts, but will probably be implemented 40 days after it (the decision) is taken.” He did not say which countries were likely to cut supplies.


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Saudi Production falls slightly as Opec production falls 425,000 bpd

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Production falling some but overall demand probably remains high, as reported inventories remain very low, as the GMIL (Great Master’s Inventory Liquidation) may still be a factor as more pension funds resist adding to passive commodity strategies.

Several months ago a Saudi official said he though $85 was the ‘right’ price, but that doesn’t mean it’s their target.

They are still price setter, until their production is forces down by several million bpd by excess supply.

Meanwhile, lower crude prices both support the $US and help keep a lid on headline inflation.

OPEC September Crude Output Down 425,000 Bbl/Day to 32.19 Million

New York, Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) Crude-oil production from the 13 OPEC members in September declined 425,000 barrels a day from August, the latest Bloomberg survey of producers, oil companies and industry analysts shows. Figures are in the thousands of barrels a day.

Opec Production
September 2008

Opec Country Sept. Est. Aug. Output Monthly Change Nov. 1 Target Est. vs. Target Est. Cap. (@)
Algeria 1,400 1,410 -10 1,357 43 1,450
Angola** 1,800 1,880 -80 1,900 -100 1,930
Ecuador 500 500 0 520 -20 500
Indonesia 865 865 0 865 0 900
Iran 3,950 4,080 -130 3,817 133 4,100
Iraq** 2,135 2,310 -175 — — 2,500
Kuwait# 2,600 2,600 0 2,531 69 2,650r
Libya 1,720 1,630 90 1,712 8 1,750
Nigeria 1,880 1,940r -60 2,163 -283 2,200
Qatar 880 880 0 828 52 900
Saudi Arabia# 9,450 9,500 -50 8,943 507 10,800
U.A.E 2,650 2,660 -10 2,567 83 2,800r
Venezuela 2,360 2,360 0 2,470 -110 2,500
Total OPEC-13 32,190 32,165r -425 — — 34,980r
Total OPEC-12* 30,055 30,305r -250 29,673 382 32,480r

**Iraq has no quota. Quotas effective Nov. 1, except for OPEC’s newest members,
Angola and Ecuador, who were formally assigned output targets Dec. 5, 2007.
OPEC announced a quota target of 28.808 million bbls/day at its Sept. 10
meeting but that figure excludes Indonesia who plans to leave the producer formally at year-end.

Totals rounded.

r = revised @ = Capacity attainable within 30 days and sustainable for 90 days.
# Includes Neutral Zone production shared equally between Saudi Arabia & Kuwait.


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MoneyBlog: Saudis cut production?

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The Saudis will ‘meet demand’ but at their price. So the question remains as to what their price is. With their production (to meet demand) nearing their max capacity, seems they want higher prices to try to cool demand so as not to lose control of price on the upside.

But we can only guess!!!

The death of OPEC

by Douglas McIntyre

Saudi Arabia walked out on OPEC yesterday. It said it would not honor the cartel’s production cut. It was tired of rants from Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and the well-dressed oil minister from Iran.

As the world’s largest crude exporter, the kingdom in the desert took its ball and went home.

As the Saudis left the building the message was shockingly clear. According to The New York Times, “Saudi Arabia will meet the market’s demand,” a senior OPEC delegate said. “We will see what the market requires and we will not leave a customer without oil.”

OPEC will still have lavish meetings and a nifty headquarters in Vienna, Austria, but the Saudis have made certain the the organization has lost its teeth. Even though the cartel argued that the sudden drop in crude as due to “over-supply”, OPEC’s most powerful member knows that the drop may only be temporary. Cold weather later this year could put pressure on prices. So could a decision by Russia that it wants to “punish” the US and EU for a time. That political battle is only at its beginning.

The downward pressure on oil got a second hand. Brazil has confirmed another huge oil deposit to add to one it discovered off-shore earlier this year. The first field uncovered by Petrobras has the promise of being one of the largest in the world. That breadth of that deposit has now expanded.

OPEC needs that Saudis to have any credibility in terms of pricing, supply, and the ongoing success of its bully pulpit. By failing to keep its most critical member it forfeits its leverage.

OPEC has made no announcement to the effect that it is dissolving, but the process is already over

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.


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Nat gas

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It was deregulated back in the 1970s, which brought out vast supplies causing utilities to substitute gas for oil and eventually break OPEC.

I don’t see that kind of supply response lurking today.

The Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978

In November of 1978, at the peak of the natural gas supply shortages, Congress enacted legislation known as the Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA), as part of broader legislation known as the National Energy Act (NEA). Realizing that those price controls that had been put in place to protect consumers from potential monopoly pricing had now come full circle to hurt consumers in the form of natural gas shortages, the federal government sought through the NGPA to revise the federal regulation of the sale of natural gas. Essentially, this act had three main goals:

  • Creating a single national natural gas market
  • Equalizing supply with demand
  • Allowing market forces to establish the wellhead price of natural gas


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Reuters: Saudi Arabia Pumps Extra Oil to Match Demand

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Saudi Pumps More Oil

(Reuters) Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has boosted supply to help meet the world’s need for fuel and may further increase output later if needed, a senior Gulf OPEC source said on Wednesday.

Yes, they set price and then sell all that’s demanded at their price. The fact that they are pumping more means demand has increased at current prices.

OPEC’s 13 members, especially core Gulf producers, are taking their output cues from global oil demand rather than sticking to production targets, said the source familiar with Saudi thinking.

“Whenever there is demand it will be met by OPEC,” he said. “The majority of OPEC producers definitely don’t like this high oil price because it is neither in their interest nor in the interest of the global economy, and it’s especially painful for the developing world.”

U.S. crude hit a record above $135 a barrel last week, prompting consumer countries such as the United States to renew their plea for more oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC’s leading producer Saudi Arabia has been adjusting supply to match demand since August last year when prices were around $60 and it was pumping around half a million barrels per day (bpd) less than now.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said earlier this month output would rise by 300,000 bpd and hit 9.45 million bpd in June. Riyadh is pumping about 9.1 million bpd this month, the source said.

Global demand is likely to increase this year by about one million bpd, with demand picking up in the third quarter, the senior Gulf OPEC source said, which explains the current Saudi production increase.

Last September OPEC agreed a 500,000 bpd increase in its formal output targets, with Saudi Arabia providing the greatest share. The group holds its next official conference on Sept. 9 in Vienna.

That’s a long way off.

Most OPEC members would like to see lower prices, but there was little they could do as the market was responding to factors beyond supply and demand, the source said. If those fundamentals dictated the price, oil would cost around $60 to $70 a barrel, the source said.

And the pundits believe this ‘source’.

The world oil market balance is similar to that in 1999, when the price was less than $20, he added.

The oil market has risen in large part because of increasing doubt over production capacity and global oil reserves, the OPEC source said.

That concern was unwarranted, he said, but helped to explain a roughly $5 premium for crude prices for delivery in 2016 compared with the prompt contract now trading at about $126 a barrel.

A wave of investment activity has also been fueled by the weakness of the U.S. currency and lower U.S. interest rates, which adds to the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.

“This big rush to oil futures is definitely leading to higher and higher prices,” he said. “So adding more or taking less oil from the market will not change the oil price since the sentiment of investors in the futures market is pushing for higher prices.”

Everything but the obvious: Saudis are swing producers, setting price and letting quantity adjust.


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Reuters: Congress passes bill to sue OPEC for antitrust violations

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Didn’t know this would be enforceable?

House passes bill to sue OPEC over oil prices

by Tom Doggett

(Reuters) The House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved legislation on Tuesday allowing the Justice Department to sue OPEC members for limiting oil supplies and working together to set crude prices, but the White House threatened to veto the measure.

The bill would subject OPEC oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela, to the same antitrust laws that U.S. companies must follow.

The measure passed in a 324-84 vote, a big enough margin to override a presidential veto.

The legislation also creates a Justice Department task force to aggressively investigate gasoline price gouging and energy market manipulation.

“This bill guarantees that oil prices will reflect supply and demand economic rules, instead of wildly speculative and perhaps illegal activities,” said Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, who sponsored the legislation.

The lawmaker said Americans “are at the mercy” of OPEC for how much they pay for gasoline, which this week hit a record average of $3.79 a gallon.

The White House opposes the bill, saying that targeting OPEC investment in the United States as a source for damage awards “would likely spur retaliatory action against American interests in those countries and lead to a reduction in oil available to U.S. refiners.”


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